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Crude Oil: How to Catch a Falling Knife -- Safely

Oil’s 2016 rally of almost 100% was 100% in line with its Elliott wave outlook

by Nico Isaac
Updated: March 21, 2017

Two weeks ago, crude oil futures fell almost 10%.

Oil is one of the most volatile, violent markets on the planet. It's easy to imagine Dante talking to crude oil traders when he wrote the famous words: "Abandon hope, all ye who enter here."

Yet, the challenge of navigating those abrupt twists and turns is far from hopeless -- if you have the right tools.

At the start of every new year, our senior commodities analyst Jeffrey Kennedy commits to the task of outlining the entire 365 days ahead for the world's key markets -- including crude oil.

In early 2016, as Jeffrey put the finishing touches on his Monthly Commodity Junctures' 2016 Commodity Outlook, crude oil was at the center of a mainstream media circus, care of:

  • Crude oil prices were circling the drain of a 13-year low below $30 a barrel
  • The first five days of 2016 marked the worst start of a year in crude oil's history
  • The smart money was the least bullish crude in six years
  • And the US Energy Department showed oil inventories swollen levels not seen in 80 years

All things considered, crude oil's future looked about as bright as an oil spill. Wrote one news source at the time:

"The price of oil keeps falling, and falling, and falling... There are no technicals holding up the price, so we're looking for a falling knife." (Bloomberg Jan. 10, 2016)

But according to Jeffrey's 2016 Commodity Outlook annual video forecast, that falling knife was about to hit bottom. Here are the exact details of Jeffrey's forecast (posted on [date]:

"Crude oil is certainly an exciting market. If we go to the weekly price chart we have wave 1 down, 2 up, 3, 4. That puts us in wave 5, which is the final move of a larger impulsive structure that began in 2013.

"So my expectations in 2016 for crude oil would be for further decline as we move into February, likely bottoming at 24.96-22.48, then we put in a low that sets the stage for a lengthy move back up to $50.92 a barrel handle."

Crude Oil Chart

That was the beginning of 2016. Flash ahead to its end, and Jeffery's crude oil forecast proved invaluable. What happened?

In his December 2016, Monthly Commodity Junctures' Year End Review video, Jeffrey revisited his long-term outlook for the crude oil market. To watch the clip and find out what happened, login or sign up to become a Club EWI member below.

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