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U.S. Dollar’s Surge Against EUR and JPY: Don’t Hang Your Hat on It

Elliott waves were ahead of this move, and they are sending a clear message about the next one

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
Updated: November 23, 2016

Often during Thanksgiving week, markets quiet down. Not so this year.

The Dow made a new all-time high today -- and in forex, the euro slid to a new post-election low.

It’s the euro I’d like to talk about. In fact, I'll let Jim Martens, the editor of our forex-focused Currency Pro Service, do the "talking."

At 9:32 Wednesday morning, Jim posted this intraday subscriber update (partial Elliott wave labels shown):

EURUSD

[Posted On] November 23, 2016 09:32 AM

(Last Price 1.0548) Good morning and welcome to our intraday coverage of the New York session. The US dollar presumably surged due to the better-than-expected Durable Goods number.

The issue with this argument is that the slide started more than an hour before the news crossed the tape -- and it was in line with our expectations for a EURUSD decline.

What are those "expectations" Jim mentioned?

Here is his Currency Pro Service EURUSD forecast from the night before (partial Elliott wave labels shown):

EURUSD

[Posted On] November 22, 2016 06:00 PM

The corrective recovery EURUSD has staged so far this week leaves the immediate trend pointed toward lower levels. 1.0533 represents the next hurdle...

Today, EURUSD hit Jim's 1.0533 price target on the nose.

And here's another thing you should know. The dollar made a similar surge against the Japanese yen today, pushing USDJPY up. On Jim's Twitter feed, we said:

"$USDJPY surged higher in a thrust from a 4th wave triangle, a terminal movement. Watch for evidence that a turn lower is occurring."

Wednesday’s dip in EURUSD may also have come from a small-degree Elliott wave triangle.

If so, just like in Japanese yen, the dollar strength should prove limited against the euro, as well.

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