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Why Stocks Don't Take Orders from the President

The "Trump bump" was in the cards long before Trump

by Bob Stokes
Updated: July 26, 2017

The stock market began to rally long before Donald Trump was elected president. What's more, the evidence shows that the rally would have likely occurred even if another candidate had won. It boils down to the market's price pattern -- see for yourself.

 

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[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]

In Steven Spielberg's 2012 film "Lincoln," the 16th U.S. president says:

"I am the President of the United States, clothed in immense power!"

Of course, that power includes the president's role as commander-in-chief. During the Civil War, Lincoln held sway over the Union Army. Today, the U.S. president has the most powerful military in the history of the world at his command.

Many in the world of finance also believe that the president - and hence presidential elections -- also play a large role in determining the course of the stock market.

This is evidenced in this July 25 Marketwatch article in which the writer says:

I was one of the few who expected equities to rocket higher after Donald Trump won the election in November.

There have been many other articles that have linked the presidential election, or presidential actions, with the stock market's trend.

But here's what you need to know -- not even the president of the United States gives the stock market its marching orders (The Socionomic Theory of Finance, 2016):

The Socionomics Institute's study of U.S. presidential election outcomes shows that the party elected has no reliable effect on stock prices.

It is true that the stock market has mainly risen since President Trump was elected, but the bullish action was in the cards long before the world knew who would be the next U.S. president.

Our February Elliott Wave Theorist reviews several charts we published early in 2016. Here's one of those charts along with the commentary:

The S and P has held above its lower channel line on log scale

The January and February 2016 issues of The Elliott Wave Theorist, written as stocks were plunging in highly volatile fashion, called for a bottom and labeled the stock indexes as having finished A, B and C of wave (4), a corrective formation dating back to the high of 2015.

As of July 25, 2017, the DJIA has advanced 31% since the February 2016 Theorist published.

Remember, we made a bull-market forecast -- using the Elliott model -- months before we knew who would be elected president.

Today, our subscribers are learning what the price pattern of the DJIA is revealing now about its next major move.

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