Elliott Wave International - Free Updates

345-Point Decline: Are You "In Search of A Reason"?

Robert Folsom — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 05:15:00 ET

Markets NEVER need a news-related "reason" to trend up or down -- if anything, today's stock market trend anticipates the type of broader news story you'll be reading tomorrow. This truth is lost on the vast majority of reporters and the public, who, in turn, go "in search of a reason" AFTER "a market decline."

Oil And Stocks: The "Correlation" Breaks Down

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 05:00:00 ET

"Most pundits were talking mainly about oil this morning [Sept. 2], which was extremely volatile. They tried to explain the strongly higher stock market open by the fact that oil prices were down big. By the end of today’s session very few market observers talked about oil and stocks together. The reason: both ended today’s market session DOWN..."

Video: How Do You Pick Best Stocks and Sectors?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 04:45:00 ET

The question “How do I pick the best stock?” is as old as the stock market itself. You’ve probably heard about a method or two, and you may already be using them – maybe even successfully. Watch this free 7-minute video and learn a new tip from an industry expert.

Elliott Wave: Narrow Down Your Options

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 09:00:00 ET

Fact: you never know for sure what kind of Elliott wave structure you're dealing with until it's complete. That's a sobering fact for many Elliott wave beginners. They often expect to count perfect five and three-wave structures in charts all the way down to milliseconds. But you just can't. For one, it has to do with the limitations of your data feed. But even if your data were perfect, some ambiguity with real-time wave counts would still remain. Here's how you handle that...

"I've Got A Stock Here That Could Really Excel"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 05:30:00 ET

Ralph Nelson Elliott, the discoverer of the Elliott Wave Principle was born on July 28, 1871. His remarkable discovery suggested that the financial markets are NOT efficient because they are a function of mass psychology – not reason. Individuals can be quite rational, but groups and crowds are not; they are emotional. In a nutshell, here's what Elliott discovered...

(NEW Prechter Video) What Were You Watching at Dow 14,000?

Gary Grimes — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 04:15:00 ET

A Special Video Issue of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist is online now. But, before you watch his updated insights, please watch and read a few selections from Prechter's Oct. 19, 2007 Elliott Wave Theorist and Bloomberg TV interview on that day.

Small Caps: And Then There Was One

Nico Isaac — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 04:15:00 ET

In the U.S. economic version of Ten Little Indians, the affluent guests of the great Bull Market party of 2002-2007 have had their profits gruesomely bumped off, one by one. Which leaves one sector left standing: Small-capitalization stocks...

Stocks AND Oil: Crude Connection

Nico Isaac — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 04:15:00 ET

According to Main Street, rising crude oil prices are to U.S. equities what a long sharp nail is to a bicycle tire. Nothing sets the record straighter than the straight facts about oil prices verses the DJIA over the past three years...

New Quarter, Same Trend; Secular Bear is Settling In

Gary Grimes — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 01:45:00 ET

Yes, the secular bear market is here. In fact, it’s been here for a while – and it’s going to stay for a while. These charts show you how much further there is to go down.

Dow Declines 358 points? Phooey -- Here's a REALLY Big Number

Robert Folsom — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 05:15:00 ET

The stock market will have to fall a lot further to get close to a number that's been a lot more painful for a lot more people: $24,300. That is the dollar figure you get when you quantify the eleven-plus percent decline in the median sales price of existing homes, since the peak in 2006 -- and that's using the data conservatively ($221,900 in 2006 vs. $197,600 through Q1 of 2008).

The Dow's Drop: Hit Bottom?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 04:00:00 ET

This describes sentiment extremes in the world’s leading financial markets: When the crowd of market advisors, investors, traders, analysts, brokers, media outlets and all around “experts” share a bullish viewpoint, prices are set to come hurtling down...

Stocks: How Do You Win In Choppy Markets?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 05:00:00 ET

Trading is only easy when the market is going up. That's not been the case lately; I remember watching CNBC during the Internet craze of the late 1990s, when they would sometimes go to a college campus and interview "day trading whizzes" that were "making a killing" trading tech stocks. I sometimes wonder what happened to them. Did they make their millions and retire young? Or did they go bust – as about 90% of market speculators do – when the NASDAQ crashed in 2000? Which brings to mind another memory...

VIDEO: How To Identify a Good Opportunity In Stocks

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 06:15:00 ET

One of the most frequent questions readers ask us is: "Does the Elliott Wave Principle apply to individual stocks?" The answer to this question is always – yes, but only if a clear, unmistakable wave pattern unfolds before your eyes. For a good example of this approach, watch this free video.

China Syndrome: Stock Market Meltdown

Nico Isaac — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 04:30:00 ET

The what: On Tuesday, June 10, China’s Shanghai Composite Index suffered a near-meltdown, plunging 8% to its lowest level in over a year. Saying that China’s stocks are falling on “policy tightening” is like saying the Big Bang gave you a headache. Meaning: The effort on the part of China’s government to stem their nation’s speculative tide is way older than the market’s actual downtrend.

Death Of The S.U.V. -- Why Now?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 04:30:00 ET

After decades of speeding down a trouble-free road of success, the Sports Utility Vehicle (S.U.V.) hit a major oil slick in 2008, spinning out of control and plunging hood-long over the cliff's edge. Fuel prices are not killing the S.U.V. A reversal in mass social mood is, as described in detail by the July 2006 Elliott Wave Theorist’sspecial, two-part study titled “Social Mood and Automobile Stylings.”

U.S. Stocks: Embracing "Change"

Nico Isaac — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 04:45:00 ET

On the morning of June 4, one phrase epitomized the frenzied climate on Wall Street: “Change is in the Air” -- As in, the 180-degree turnaround in the leading U.S. stock index from UP to D-O-W n. Since soaring to a four-month high on May 19, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been as happy as a clam… nearing a pot of boiling hot water...

The Dow: Four Major "Developments"

Nico Isaac — Wed, 21 May 2008 04:15:00 ET

The only time the phrase “Reply hazy, try again later” is an acceptable response to a question is when you shake a Magic Eight Ball. Now consider these recent news headlines from the mainstream financial media: “Fed Signal Unclear,” “Economic Outlook Uncertain,” “Repercussions Unknown,” and “Stock Markets Remain Mixed.”

3 Reasons Not To Speculate in Stocks …

Editorial Staff — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:15:00 ET

Most people have begun to accept that the U.S. economy is in recession whether or not the National Bureau of Economic Research has labeled it a recession yet. If you, too, think that the economy is headed for hard times, the next question is, how do you prepare for it?

General Electric (GE): Bellwether for a Global Bear Market

Susan C. Walker — Mon, 12 May 2008 03:30:00 ET

This announcement of GE's successful global infrastructure deal is far happier than its announcement in mid-April that it had badly missed its expected earnings, resulting in the stock losing $47 billion in one day on April 11, 2008. But while many investors and many in the financial press see global infrastructure investment as GE's savior, our analysts here at Elliott Wave International look at GE's price chart and see a different story.

How To Invest Long Term Without Losing Your Fannie … Mae

Peter Kendall — Fri, 09 May 2008 01:30:00 ET

Reaping the windfall benefits of a sharp decline in Fannie Mae’s shares took patience, tenacity and some follow-up analysis. Here's how our EWI analysts prepared subscribers for Fannie's downfall, starting back in 2002.

The Power of Myth and Your Portfolio

Robert Folsom — Fri, 09 May 2008 01:15:00 ET

When it comes to mutual funds, the truth is this: An ever-larger number of people give their money to an ever-smaller number of managers, who in turn oversee the taking of an ever-bigger slice of the pie.

6 Ways Elliott Wave Helps You Trade Better

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 02 May 2008 01:00:00 ET

Recently, we wrote that while it's easy to follow professional wave counts in market charts, doing them on your own – especially in real time, while you're trading – can be a challenge. Yet learning Elliott is well worth it. Why? For the answer, let's turn to someone who has 12+ years of experience in Elliott wave analysis and trading.

Silver Standard Resources (SSRI): Clear, Unmistakable Opportunity

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 01 May 2008 05:15:00 ET

One of the most frequent questions Elliott Wave International's readers ask is this: "Can I apply Elliott wave analysis to individual stocks?" The short answer is – yes, but with one caveat: sufficient investor participation. Let's look at one example: Silver Standard Resources (NASDAQ: SSRI), a small cap stock.

Elliott Wave: It's All About "Fives and Threes"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 06:00:00 ET

Regardless of how new you may be to Elliott wave analysis, you know that it's relatively easy to follow professionally produced wave counts in market charts. But if you've ever tried to do your own wave counts while trading, you know how big a challenge it can be. Well, here is a solution.

Smoke & Mirrors Hide Bigger Losses on Wall Street

Susan C. Walker — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 04:15:00 ET

Citigroup and Merrill Lynch use good old smoke and mirrors -- otherwise known as modern-day accounting -- to delay losses on their income statements. But there's a much clearer picture and forecast from The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast.

Mutual Funds: The Greatest Financial Irony in History

Robert Folsom — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 05:00:00 ET

The author explains the big-picture reasons why the mutual fund industry amounts to a deck stacked against investors, including how "management companies are independently owned, separate from the funds themselves," and that "managers profit by maximizing the funds under management because their fees are based on assets, not performance." He also notes other curious facts -- such as how the years from 1980 to 2004 saw the rate of increase in fees in stock mutual funds exceed the rate of increase in fund assets....

Do Stocks Reflect The Economy?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 04:15:00 ET

Regarding the question raised by today’s headline, “Do Stocks Reflect The Economy?” -- the one-word answer is NO. The cornerstone of conventional economic wisdom is pure baloney.

"Earnings Season" for Some, "Stupid" Season for Others?

Robert Folsom — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 05:45:00 ET

Literally hundreds of headlines today that said "Stocks surge on profit reports from Citigroup...", "U.S. stocks rally on Citigroup earnings...", etc., etc., etc. Those headlines would of course be plausible if Citi had indeed reported positive earnings. However and alas, the teeny-tiny detail that some of these stories didn't even see fit to mention was that Citigroup didn't HAVE any earnings in the previous quarter, because earnings are PROFITS. Instead, what Citigroup DID have were "negative earnings," which is a two-word definition for one word, namely LOSSES.

Gold Stocks: Buyer Beware?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 06:15:00 ET

If you happen to be a proponent of the “random walk” theory, let’s – for now – leave alone the debate about “random” vs. “patterned" markets and focus instead on the benefits of accepting (if only for a minute) the idea that markets are indeed patterned. The benefits are numerous and obvious; the main has to be this...

What's Worse Than Overestimating a Gain?

Robert Folsom — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 05:15:00 ET

The overwhelming consensus of Wall Street's analytical opinion was bullish on earnings regarding the entire second half of 2007. As Q3 began, the average estimate was for an earnings gain of 5.7%, though by that quarter's end the estimate was cut to a 2.7% gain. The actual final earnings report showed a 2.5% decline. Undeterred, analysts began Q4 with an average estimate of 10.9%, though by that quarter's end the estimate was cut to a 7.9% decline. The actual final earnings report showed a decline of 22.6%. That's an overestimate of 33.5 percentage points, which Bloomberg described as "the biggest miss ever"...

Real Forecasts vs. Guesswork After the Fact

Robert Folsom — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 03:45:00 ET

Logic and a heap of recent history be damned -- or, perhaps, it's the vain fondness for consistency which unleashed the hobgoblins into my little mind. "News" Flash: Bearish news isn't bearish if the stock market goes up. If you and I don't know the difference beforehand, well, too bad. It must be our fault.

The Anguish of A Lost Decade

Robert Folsom — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 04:30:00 ET

Which is to say, equity investors collectively nearly always underperform the major indexes. And that's a fact I did not glean from the Wall Street Journal, but instead from the March Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. And if you think that the article I quoted above made buy & hold investing look unappealing, here's what that issue of EWFF (published Feb. 28) said...

Fibonacci Numbers: Still Useful After All These Years

Alan Hall — Fri, 14 Mar 2008 04:45:00 ET

Leonardo Fibonacci of Pisa was the most important mathematician of the Middle Ages. In 1202, he wrote a landmark book on arithmetic, which popularized the decimal and Hindu-Arabic numbering system that we use today. His other discovery, what we now call "Fibonacci numbers," has had a profound impact on the analysis of modern financial markets.

Stocks: Running Scared, But Opportunities Still Present

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 06:00:00 ET

Most people talk about the economy like it’s something that exists separately from them. Like it’s a hot-air balloon floating up in the sky. That’s us, here on earth, feet on the ground, and there’s the economy – up there, see it? But just what IS economy? Or "the markets," for that matter? Let's take a closer look.

Do the Stock Indexes Actually Show How Investors "Are Doing"?

Robert Folsom — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 05:45:00 ET

After all, half the households in America own equities via 401k accounts, mutual funds, IRAs, common stocks, etc., etc. Whatever the vehicle, people who own equities get in for "the long term." The "rational" advice of nearly all financial "experts" is for people to "buy and hold" in bull and bear markets. So that's exactly what investors do.
Right?
If you believe that, dear reader, then have I got a Biscayne Bay condo for you. The "experts" may well drivel on about how people should buy & hold, but any claim that most investors actually do so during bull and bear markets is complete rubbish....

'Buy-and-Hold' -- A Bull Market Trait?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 04:45:00 ET

More times than we can count, financial investors act completely against reason. The harder stocks fall, and the worse the economic data, the stronger becomes the public's faith in the future of the overall market. "Rational"? We think not. Regular -- however -- it is very much so. Seeing is believing via our graphic illustration...

All the Bad News That's Fit To Print, & the Dow Still Heads Up

Susan C. Walker — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 01:15:00 ET

If ever there was a day when bad news should drag the financial markets down, Tuesday, February 26, 2008, was it. But instead, the markets all closed up, with the Dow leading the way, up nearly 115 points.

Bad News Delayed is Still Bad News

Susan C. Walker — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 11:45:00 ET

We suggest getting off the addiction to following the news and the delayed reporting from companies and getting ahead of the curve by following the Wave Principle.

What Next for our Humpty Dumpty Markets?

Susan C. Walker — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 11:15:00 ET

The U.S. President, the Fed and all the central bankers and financial whizzes in the world are trying to put our Humpty Dumpty economy and financial markets back together again. But they aren't having much luck.

Bank Of America and Google: News Doesn't Matter?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 05:35:21 ET

On Friday (Feb. 1), Google reported that its "fourth-quarter revenue increased 51% and net income rose 17%, and top executives said they saw no effect of an economic slowdown." Good news, no argument there. Yet at the open GOOG promptly lost ground and closed Friday's trading down more than 8%. And then on Monday (Feb. 4), it lost some more. Why? We have some ideas...

Citi's Troubles: Could You See It in the Charts?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 28 Jan 2008 03:45:50 ET

Citigroup's (NYSE: C) exposure to the subprime mortgage market is said to "have been weighing on the minds of investors" and be responsible for the recent sell-offs in the DJIA and Citi's own stock. But Elliott wave patterns in C have warned that the stock was headed for trouble months before the sell-off began. The question you're probably asking is, what was it in this chart that spelled trouble?

Bad News Delayed is Still Bad News

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 11:00:00 ET

On days like today in the financial markets, you can almost see social mood changing before your very eyes. With the DJIA, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq all off by 2% or more today, the sell-off has resulted in a 10-month low for these markets.

Tommorow's News Today, A Year Ago

Robert Folsom — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 10:45:43 ET

The major stock indexes closed higher on Monday (Jan. 14).

The Fed, Big Brother, and Being Oblivious to History

Robert Folsom — Tue, 11 Dec 2007 04:40:00 ET

The stock market sold off strongly in the afternoon on Tuesday (Dec. 11).

Bank Of America (BAC): Bad News Doesn't Matter?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 12:30:00 ET

On Wednesday (Nov. 13), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) revealed that it would have to write off $3 billion worth of bad debts. That very day their stock opened with an upward gap and closed 5.2% HIGHER. Even if we could come up with a genuinely good explanation for the rally, one question would still remain -- the most important question, really. And that is -- when another bank announces its subprime-related losses, what do you do with its stock: buy, sell or hold?

Testimonial: December Financial Forecast 'Absolutely The Best'

Gary Grimes — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 10:30:00 ET

Whether you keep up with EWI's Free Updates on our website or via our daily eZines (sign up here), I'm sure the phrase "mainstream financial 'experts'" is not lost on you. We often use it to point out mainstream media follies when they comment on the financial markets, such as their utter cluelessness about the Fed's supposed "control" of interest rates and the financial markets.

Why Choose Technical Analysis Over Fundamental?

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 12:45:00 ET

Is there any point in a market cycle at which Elliotticians and fundamental analysts will agree?

How the Financial Forecast Looks Ahead

Alan Hall — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 10:10:00 ET

The real estate price decline is accelerating in most of the U.S. Where prices are not declining -- like the Pacific Northwest -- price growth is decelerating. Prior to the peak in 2005, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast described the mania and the collapse that was likely to follow. That anticipation is clear in this chart of the S&P 500 Homebuilder's Index from the July 25, 2005 Elliott Wave Short Term Update.

Does This Bear Have Legs?

Alan Hall — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 09:00:00 ET

It looks like a bear. We act like it's a bear. After a succession of booms and busts, this could finally be a Bear With Legs. Consider these reasons why...