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U.S. Stocks: Embracing "Change"
On the morning of June 4, one phrase epitomized the frenzied climate on Wall Street: “Change is in the Air” -- and no, I don’t mean the news surrounding Barack Obama’s Democratic nominee victory and his agenda of “Change.”
Instead, it's more like the 180-degree turnaround in the leading U.S. stock index from UP to D-O-W n. Since soaring to a four-month high on May 19, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been as happy as a clam… nearing a pot of boiling hot water.
As for why -- well, according to the mainstream experts, one factor is behind the DJIA’s 600-plus POINT plunge: “Worries rattle the markets… as credit crunch continues to claim victims.” (Forbes)
(Summer is almost here, and the
U.S. stock market is already
sweating BULL-ets. With objective analysis and various price charts of every measure, the
June 3 Short Term Update shows how low the markets are set to go in the days, and weeks ahead.
Learn More)
Problem: Since the start of 2007, the global credit bust has claimed more victims than Freddy Krueger -- YET, for a large part of that time, stock prices showed no fear. Case in point: January to October ’07, the Nightmare on Wall Street begins with the following casualties:
- April: New Century Financial Corp., the nations #1 subprime mortgage lender files for bankruptcy; Citigroup Inc, the world’s biggest bank, launches its first major overhaul in nearly a decade.
- September: Morgan Stanley, #2 investment bank, suffers first drop in earnings in two years.
- October: Merrill Lynch, world’s largest brokerage, suffers first loss in six years, as UBS – Europe’s biggest bank – becomes the first global lender to post a quarterly loss.
During that time, the Dow enjoyed an unprecedented winning streak to an all-time record high on October 9, 2007.
(Editor’s Note: The exact date of the DJIA’s peak, the October 9 Short Term Update stepped up the urgency of its analysis with this message: “Odds have increased that a market high is in place. The structure, coupled with turns in the other markets, suggests a top is in place. The potential, at the least, is for a large selloff”.)
As for the market’s most recent decline -- the May 19 Short Term Update revealed “Four Major Developments” underway in the Dow that ALL carried bearish implications: A “Sell” signal from the Volatility Index, a Dow Theory non-confirmation, a drop in the Put/Call ratio, and a failed push above trendline resistance. The result:
“The bear trend could withstand a day or two above these lines, but that’s about all before prices should reverse lower in the next phase down.”
Bottom line: The terrible state of the credit industry is not CHANGING anytime soon. The near-term status of the Dow and company, however, always IS.
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