Halloween is fast approaching, but trick-or-treating for traders starts right now. Knock once on the door to the latest Futures Junctures Service, and EWI's chief commodity analyst and long-time editor Jeffrey Kennedy fills one's bag with delicious opportunities in the world's leading markets.
First up: "Bubble" gumball in Commodities? According to the mainstream experts, the powerful run up in hard assets is set to continue. "The commodities boom is not over and the bull market has several years to go," writes one October 8 Bloomberg.
Well, before you hop aboard the bullish bandwagon, you might want to consider this historical close-up of the Reuters-Jeffries CRB Index from the September 2009 Monthly Futures Junctures. (Many labels have been removed for this publication)
This version, though not complete, does provide a clear picture of a 100-year long, five-wave rally since the 1890's. Whether that final wave (V) is at its end, or set to extend further -- the September MFJ has the groundbreaking details.
Sugar Daddy: Now -- the brand-new, October 2009 Monthly Futures Junctures. Here, Jeffrey Kennedyopens with a "Featured Market" segment on Sugar. Front and center is one question: Is the recent surge to a 30-year high just getting started? And, with a riveting study of the last FOUR major peaks in sugar's price history, Jeffrey comes to a solid conclusion about the sweet's long-term future.
Next up is MFJ's "Wave Watch." Here, Jeffrey provides two labeled snapshots per 11 markets -- each of which include clearly marked trendlines, up/downside objectives, support/resistance levels, and bold arrows pointing prices in their next likely direction. Off the top are these familiar favorites:
Grains: Consider the following archive:
June 2009 MFJ on the top three Grain markets wrote:
- Soybeans: "Odds are that the high of the year is in place and should introduce a sell off."
- Corn: "The advance is complete. The stage is set for renewed selling that should push prices to below the 2008 low."
- Wheat: "We can look for wheat to more than fully retrace the 2008 advance."
The coordinated, three-month and 50%-60% sell-off to multi-year lows that followed speaks for itself.
Next, the September 2009 MFJ "Feature" wrote:
"As this new [trend] unfolds, soybeans, corn, and wheat are close to completing initial waves down" and set to "rally."
All three markets have since soared to multi-month highs. The October MFJ takes it from here...
Cocoa: The August '09 MFJ wrote: "Until we see confirming price action -- which is a critical component of market analysis -- we can't rule out a further rally. If we get a new high above 2999, then cocoa's alternate labeling would come into play." With prices at a 15-and-a-half month high, the October MFJ holds nothing back.
Orange Juice: The June '09 "Wave Watch" saw OJ's losing streak set to end and drew a bold arrow toward the 100 level. Then, the July close-up showed the rally continuing even higher to 110 and above before turning down in a powerful decline. Once again, the August publication stayed one step ahead of the market's moves by showing a third wave advance to beyond the previous high. What now?
Lean Hogs: The May '09 MFJ wrote: "A highly reliable traditional technical chart pattern [the head-and-shoulders] calls for continuing decline into the 47.00 area." Prices fulfilled this forecast, and then some. Next, the August "Wave Watch" saw things turning around and drew a clear arrow pointing UP. With hogs at a three-month high, will the market strength continue?