The Drop Like a Rock Scenario for U.S. Markets

Home > Stocks
The Drop Like a Rock Scenario for U.S. Markets
Third waves are "wonders to behold"

By Bob Stokes
Wed, 11 Jul 2012 15:45:00 ET

Get investable insights sent to your inbox at least once a week – for free. Challenge the way you think about investing with The EWI Independent.

Privacy

Financial markets always have and always will pose two basic questions that investors seek to answer:

1) What's the direction of the main trend?

2) How far will it go?

Systematic approaches to these questions commonly belong to either fundamental or technical analysis. Let's consider each one briefly.

Fundamental analysis studies how a market behaves in response to external influences such as earnings, sales, competitive outlook, economic outlook and the like.

Technical analysis studies a market's internal behavior -- mainly price, but also internal measures like volume.

Elliott wave analysis is a branch of technical analysis, specifically pattern recognition.

In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns...Elliott isolated five such patterns, or "waves," that recur in market price data.

Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior (p. 19)

In a five-wave progression, the third wave is the most powerful.

Third waves unfold in bull and bear markets alike. Elliott Wave Principle (p. 80) describes a third wave in a bull market:

Third waves are wonders to behold. They are strong and broad, and the trend at this point is unmistakable...Third waves usually generate the greatest volume and price movement and are most often the extended wave in a series. It follows, of course, that the third wave of a third wave, and so on, will be the most volatile point of strength in any wave sequence.

Third waves can be more powerful during market declines because fear is a stronger emotion than greed.

Look at the third wave on this S&P 500 chart which published in the January 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Notice that prices dropped like a rock, plunging well over 600 points in less than a year. (The third wave starts where the chart shows (2) and ends at (3)):

You can see on the chart that the S&P 500 had rebounded after the third wave had bottomed. Even so, the chart's title states that there was "Room for a New Low." Indeed, after the rebound which was wave (4), wave (5) took prices to a March 6, 2009 intraday low of 666.79.

How about now?

That depends on who you ask.

On July 10, CNBC reported on the sentiment of a chief market strategist of a capital management firm:

Ever the optimist, he is holding to his market call this year for the S&P 500 to hit 1,500.

A principal of a financial advisory firm and guest columnist for Marketwatch wrote a July 10 article titled "Stock charts don't lie: the trend is up." The article says:

Shares continue their winning ways, technically. The averages show a stair-step series of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend.

By contrast, the latest Financial Forecast flat out says:

The stock market is nowhere near a lasting low.

Why does the Financial Forecast differ from the two opinions above?

Because Elliott analysts know that during a market downtrend, second waves can convince investors that the rally is a new bull market.

That can be a financially dangerous mind-set.

Optimism precedes third waves lower. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, a third wave can commence with unrelenting violence and speed.

In the chart above, you saw the optimism-driven rebound just before prices plunged.

Do not expect the financial media to provide you with advance warning of a third wave. The crowd is almost always on the wrong side of the market. Third waves arrive unannounced.

When does EWI expect the next third wave to arrive?

Get the answer pronto in our Financial Forecast Service. You get The Elliott Wave Theorist, Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and Financial Forecast Short Term Update -- all three publications -- in one great, easy to navigate service.

You will get the answers to the two questions posed at the start of this article, and learn why the Financial Forecast Service provides those answers. You'll be prepared for what most others do not even suspect.

Take a look at what EWI sees in the charts of U.S. markets. You can preview EWI's premier forecasting service risk-free for 30-days. Click here to learn more.

Tags: Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, market forecasts, momentum, S&P 500, sentiment, technical analysis, U.S. STOCK MARKET

May 13-16

Las Vegas Money Show

July 10-13

Freedom Fest Conference

Stay Ahead of the Trend in U.S. Stocks

EWI's Financial Forecast Service equips you to think, trade and invest independently from the crowd. Here's what you'll get, risk-free:

Short Term Update -- Intensive forecasts and analysis 3x/week for U.S. stocks, gold, silver, bonds and the U.S. dollar.
Financial Forecast -- In-depth, intermediate-term perspective on U.S. stocks, gold, silver, bonds and the U.S. dollar.
Theorist -- Bob Prechter's monthly big-picture insights.

Put the Financial Forecast Service on your screen in minutes, risk-free>>

Most Read

Highest Rated

Free Video Course

Learn the Why, What and How of Elliott Wave Analysis

Financial media use news and economic events to explain market moves. Steer clear of this misguided approach. Take part in the Elliott Wave Crash Course to learn what really moves the markets.

CLOSE [ X ]

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.