Asia-Pacific Stocks: The Tale of "Two Asias"

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Asia-Pacific Stocks: The Tale of "Two Asias"
Inside EWI's September 2012 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast...

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
Fri, 31 Aug 2012 20:15:00 ET

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Most investors are conditioned to believe that global stocks move in unison. That's not the case. For example, since July 2009, while the DJIA has gone up, China's Shanghai Composite has only seen red.

Even the markets in the same geographical area diverge. For example, says our September 2012 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, in the weeks ahead we are likely to see two outliers: Chinese and Vietnamese stocks. In fact, says editor Mark Galasiewski,

"The wave patterns for Chinese and Vietnamese stocks offer the clearest forecasts in the region at present."

You'll find the details in the new issue. Also:

Overview: Asia has seen a lot of territorial disputes lately, particularly from China. There is a good explanation for the nation’s anger: You just have to look at our China’s Consumer Satisfaction Index chart. The interesting part is how it relates to the position of the Shanghai Composite -- this investment setup you have to see for yourself.

In detail, CHINA: The Shanghai Composite has been declining on slower momentum. The ChiNext small-cap index is holding above its January low. The September 2012 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast tells you what to make of these two indicators.

In detail, VIETNAM: The Ho Chi Minh Index has fallen for 4 months. Over the same period, the Hanoi UPCom small-cap index has risen. This divergence is important.

AUSTRALIA: Since the 2009 low, Citibank’s options ASX 200 Volatility Index has reached recent levels only 3 other times. We tell you whether it happened prior to a decline -- or a rally.

INDIA: The Nifty has moved largely sideways for three years. We also analyze the BSE Small Cap index to tell you whether or not their crablike sideways movement should continue.

JAPAN: Since the 2007- 2009 global financial crisis, the TOPIX 30 Index of Japan’s largest and most liquid companies has been the weakest of Japan’s major indexes. Our forecast for both the TOPIX and NIKKEI may raise a few eyebrows, but it's based on solid evidence we present to you in the September 2012 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast.

SINGAPORE & HONG KONG: The Straits Times Index moved above its early 2012 high, but the Hang Seng Index has so far failed to follow. We tell you what we believe this divergence means.

You also get updates on stocks in Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia. Tap into these insights now via a 30-day RISK-FREE subscription to The Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Service. (You also get instant access to the still-valuable August 2012 issue.)

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Tags: Bank of Japan, diversification, Elliott wave, emerging markets, Nikkei, SENSEX, Shanghai Composite Index

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