Europe in September: One of the Most Critical Months Yet

Home > European Markets
Europe in September: One of the Most Critical Months Yet
Inside EWI’s latest, September 2012 European Financial Forecast…

By Nico Isaac
Fri, 31 Aug 2012 20:30:00 ET

Get investable insights sent to your inbox at least once a week – for free. Challenge the way you think about investing with The EWI Independent.

Privacy

September is to the European economy what November is to the U.S. Presidential election. To wit: September will see the final results of the Continents’ long and bitter campaign against its long-time rival, deflation:

France, Europe’s #2 largest economy, unveils its 2013 budget
Spanish auditors reveal the country’s economic liabilities
And, worldwide monetary officials revisit Greece to see whether the latest rounds of bailout radiation have stopped the country’s sovereign debt crisis from spreading.

So, which party will come out the winner -- the EU authorities, or the ongoing crisis?

Well, in the brand-new, September 2012 European Financial Forecast, our top priority is showing you the evidence on whether or not the European governments’ “perceived ability to stave off deflation” has indeed become a reality.

Inside the September 2012 European Financial Forecast…

Stock Market: The September EFF takes a 3-pronged approach to answering the #1 question on investors’ minds: Is the 3-month-long uptrend from June 1 here to stay?

Volume: EFF’s opening Page 1 “Special Report” gives you an “eye-opening” long-term chart of the Euro Stoxx versus weekly trading volume. We write: “This is a time-tested technical relationship that wave analysts have verified over the past 7 decades.”

The chart you see reveals an August 2012 volume reading of great “magnitude” and meaning. The first time we saw this kind of technical picture, it “ushered in the most important stock market [event] of the past century.”

Elliott wave structure: Here’s a quick rule-of-thumb of technical analysis:

When rising markets are coordinated & cohesive, the trend is generally bullish
When rising markets are diverging & splintered, the trend is generally bearish

EFF’s 4-part chart of the FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40, and EuroStoxx 50 show you whether the main European bourses are really in this 3-month rally together.

Sentiment: EFF writes: “One piece of evidence to support our view” of the long-term trend in stocks is the Daily Sentiment Index of futures traders in 3 major European bourses. We then reveal whether today’s bullish reading tends to coincide with a market “lift-off,” or “landing.”

Financial Products: Heyday - to - "Mayday, Mayday!" EFF’s chart of EuroStoxx 600 vs. a Bloomberg index of earnings per share (EPS) estimates is clear as day: Analysts increase their estimates at market peaks, and decrease them at market bottoms.

To wit: In January 2012, analysts forecast 8% y-o-y EPS growth in the EuroStoxx 600. Today: Profits are down 10% across European companies.

The next question is: Are current estimates at a level NOW that coincide with a market bottom? The new EFF has the answer.

No shirt, No shoes, No Euro -- No service: Last month's EFF called for an advance in euro prices AND abatement in anti-euro sentiment. We wrote:

“Near-term, a 5-wave decline since February 2012 counts complete. Also, negative euro sentiment is extreme… Odds favor a relief rally here.”

Since then, the euro has risen 3% to the 8-week highs we see today. Also, in a renewed show of support for the battered euro currency, several Wall Street banks are denying any foreign payments not made in euros. Now, EFF reveals whether the pro-euro uptrend will last.

The “Ship” of Recovery: Sinking or Sailing? EFF writes: “Shipping often provides early warning” for the broader economic health. “Bulk transport represents the 1^st link in the consumer-goods supply chain.” So, what is the shipping industry saying about Europe’s financial future now? Well, the entire “Economy” section of the September EFF is dedicated to answering that very question; we reveal:

Current shipping rates based on the Baltic Dry Index
A 3-paneled chart, including the share price of the world’s largest shipping conglomerate since 1995.
And, whether the world’s largest maritime lenders are providing the $250 billion in financing the shipping industry needs to stay afloat.

Tap into these insights now via a RISK-FREE, instant-access subscription to The European Financial Forecast Service. Subscribe today, and you'll also get instant access to the still-valuable May and June 2012 European Financial Forecast publications.

Get Ahead and Stay Ahead of the Investment Herd in 12+ European Markets Now

Here's what you get RISK-FREE for 30 days:

1. The European Short Term Update

A near-term focus on European markets aims to give you the insight you need to act decisively before short-term market moves. The Update is published every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, so you're never in the dark about near- and intermediate-term trends in Germany's DAX stock index, Britain's FTSE-100, France's CAC40 and Eurozone's Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 -- and other markets.

2. The European Financial Forecast

With an intermediate- to long-term focus on 12+ European bourses, you get the invaluable big-picture outlook most investors only dream of. You tap into important social trends moving alongside the regional indexes, and be warned of developing market opportunities long before they occur. You get the knowledge to anticipate how the waves of social mood will affect the political and corporate environments across Europe, helping you invest with confidence.

3. The Elliott Wave Theorist

Trusted since 1979, Bob Prechter's straight-talking Elliott Wave Theorist is the bedrock of EWI analysis. Delightfully contrary, refreshingly logical and downright accessible, the Theorist is a must-read for every independent investor. You get thought-provoking analysis and forecasts on the near-, intermediate- and long-term direction of the financial markets, critical trends in investor psychology plus timely in-depth research and insights you're guaranteed not to get from any other source.

You can try to keep up with 45+ countries on the European continent and its 5 major stock markets yourself -- plus struggle to catch developing opportunities in lesser-followed markets -- or you can tap into the mother lode of unconventional, yet accessible analysis with our European Financial Forecast Service. Let us research the markets for you, so you can concentrate on navigating opportunities that arise in:

Germany's DAX stock index
Britain's FTSE-100
France's CAC40
Eurozone's Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50
The Netherlands' AEX
Switzerland's SMI
Spain's IBEX 35
Italy's S&P/MIB
Belgium's BEL20
Austria's ATX
Sweden's OMX
Norway's OBX
Greece's FTSE ASE
Russia's RTS

BONUS: Your risk-free European Financial Forecast Service subscription also gives you instant online access to EWI's advanced Elliott wave tutorial, classic EWI reports, multimedia files, answers from analysts on EWI's Message Board, educational tools, and more. Best of all, these extra resources are 100% free.

Get Ahead of the Investment Herd in European Markets Now, RISK-FREE for 30 Days

Tags: AEX, CAC40, DAX, Elliott wave, eu, euro, euro stoxx 50, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), FTSE

Aug. 11-14

4-Day Market Mentor Trading Course - Orlando, FL - Save $600 Now

Aug. 15-17

San Francisco Money Show

Nov. 10-13

New Orleans Investment Conference

Get an Unconventional Yet Accessible Look at European Markets

The European Financial Forecast gives you an invaluable big-picture outlook for major European bourses to give you an edge over the investing herd.

Each monthly 10-page issue gives you timely, Elliott wave analysis and forecasts of the DAX, FTSE, CAC, Euro Stoxx 50 and more, plus commentary on economic and social trends.

Preview the Latest European Financial Forecast Now>>