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Press Play to See Jeffrey Kennedy's Far-Reaching 2013 Commodity Outlook
Futures Junctures Service 3-part video series on long-term trends in key softs, grains, and livestock. Here are exclusive highlights from video 1.

By Nico Isaac
Tue, 12 Mar 2013 18:00:00 ET
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Spring hasn't even arrived officially, yet some of us are already feeling the three "izies" of the season: hazy, fuzzy and dizzy. Yet it's not my hay fever that has my teeth on edge, but the suffocating cloud of mainstream financial news regarding long-term commodity trends.  

Last count, the usual experts presented four very different fundamental scenarios:
 
1.       Rising equities are bullish for commodities: "Commodities Up... as hopes that a recovering US economy will lead to better demand. And a fresh record high on the Dow Jones Industrial Average added support across the sector." (Reuters)
 
2.       Rising equities are bearish for commodities: "The rally for the stock market is coming at the expense of raw materials... as equities trade at the highest valuation relative to commodities in four years. Equities are benefiting most as... the growth story has been getting some traction." (Bloomberg)
 
3.       China's economy is growing; commodity prices cheer: "Goldman raised its three-month outlook for raw materials to 'overweight' from 'neutral' on March 7, saying the slump in raw materials is 'overdone,' and prices will rebound as China's economy accelerates." (Economic Times)
 
4.       China's economy is shrinking; commodities slide: "Commodities Sink on China Slowdown. Manufacturing in China, the top consumer of cotton, copper, soybeans, expanded at the weakest pace in five months in February. Commodity markets are worried about China... The sentiment is changing to cautious." (Bloomberg)
 
What's a good decongestant for the mental haze that comes from these incompatible viewpoints?
 
Try EWI's senior analyst and Futures Junctures Service Editor Jeffrey Kennedy. This February, Jeffrey recorded a three-part video series titled "2013 Commodity Outlook," where objective Elliott wave analysis is the primary key to unlocking the long-term trend underway in 15 key markets. In video one, Jeffrey shines the light on softs, and includes these exclusive highlights:
 
·         A 133-year Commodity Cycle: What if the duration of commodity bull and bear markets was not random? That in fact, over the last 133 years, uptrends have lasted a certain number of years, as well as downtrends. The opening slide of Jeffrey's video reveals that such is the case. By establishing a long-term timing cycle, Jeffrey then confirms whether the 2012 lows beget a lasting bottom. 
 
·         Coffee: Jeffrey's quarterly chart dates back to 1970. "This will essentially be my road map as we move into the next five, ten years."  Nearer term, Jeffrey's weekly continuation chart examines price action from the 2011 top. Jeffrey affirms: "The trend in this market is clearly" moving in one direction for "the majority of 2013, if not all of it." From here on out, it's quite apparent how best to "treat any kind of strength."
 
·         Cocoa: The most "striking" aspect of this market can be found on Jeffrey's weekly continuation chart. Here, Jeffrey uses his own, patented Kennedy Channeling Technique to project the next likely turning point. "All I'm waiting for at this juncture," Jeffrey reveals, "is for prices to" break a specific boundary line. That should "clear the way."
 
·         Sugar: Jeffrey's primary or operative wave labeling is one of the most aggressive in the field. His interpretation, presented on the weekly continuation chart, suggests that all eyes should be focused on "the first quarter of 2013." Then, if his assessment is correct, a "massive move" should unfold that has a "very sharp and dramatic resolution."
 
·         Cotton: The key to cotton is found in Jeffrey's quarterly chart, dating back to 1970. Here, he identifies a long-term, multi-decade ending diagonal. "It's a very unique pattern," Jeffrey explains, "And one that can only form" in a specific stage of the larger trend. This labeling argues that a key price level "will not be breached for many years to come, if not decades to come."
 
·         Orange Juice: Jeffrey's excitement is immediate. "The big picture is quite clear, and I like it a lot." That being: A three-wave move, followed by another three-wave move that pushes prices to a new extreme. There are only two possible Elliott wave patterns that could do this. Jeffrey puts forth his choice, and reveals why -- if correct -- there will be a 'fantastic [trading] opportunity" for one group of investors in the coming months.
 
"What am I actually looking for in terms of my long-term commodity outlook within the softs markets," Jeffrey asks in the final moments of his video. Bottom line: Jeffrey maintains one position "across the board," and is looking for all five markets to move in one direction.
 
What's more that's just the first in Jeffrey's three-part "2013 Commodity Outlook" video series. Grains and Livestock are covered in the other two -- 15 markets in total. The best part is, the complete package is available at absolutely no extra cost to all Futures Junctures Service subscribers.
 
 

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