The biggest problem with fundamental analysis is its uncanny ability to point out trends that have long since been in place. Basically, it’s the equivalent of yelling “SURPRISE!” to the birthday man/woman of honor hours after he/she has already shown up to the surprise party.
Take, for example, the recent action underway in the Orange Juice market. On Monday, July 7, O.J. turned heads when prices sweetened to their highest level in four months. And, according to the mainstream experts, one main event was behind the market’s bounce: the appearance of Asian Citrus Psyllid (or greening disease) two miles from San Diego County, California.
Here, the following June 30 news item -- which circulated the wire the following week -- writes: “Frozen concentrated OJ rallied on fundamental worries that California orange production may be encountering its most serious threat ever. The finding of the psyllid suggests the potential for decreased orange supplies -- a bullish development.” (Dow Jones Newswires)
One problem: Widespread announcement of the greening-disease carrying insect's presence in Tijuana didn't hit the stands until July 2. Yet, orange juice prices began to rise from a bottom on June 19, only to take off in earnest on June 27-28.
As for “C”-eeing the upside potential in O.J. prices BEFORE they began, the June 27 Daily Futures Junctures “Weekly Wrap-up” segment presented the following price chart with a bold arrow pointing skyward. (Some labels erased for this publication.)
Now for the really big news: In the July 10 Daily Futures Junctures, Elliott Wave International’s senior commodity analyst and Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy pays Orange Juice another visit. In this issue, Jeffrey introduces a new, updated price chart of O.J., alongside objective analysis of the market’s near-term trend changes.