Read The Socionomist and you'll begin to observe behavior from the "socionomic perspective." It can transform the way you evaluate risk -- which risks to laugh off, and which ones to take seriously.
Case in point: I was in Chapel Hill, NC recently, and picked up a copy of the university newspaper The Daily Tar Heel. Their article, “Swine Flu Humor Infects Universities Nationwide,” reminded me of the epidemic disease study in the May and June Socionomist, especially what it said about today’s historic complacency toward epidemic disease.
Four months before it became headline news in college newspapers, the June Socionomist said this about flippant attitudes toward swine flu:
Like SARS in 2002, the 2009 swine flu erupted when the socionomic model said it would: after a strongly negative social-mood trend. Yet with social mood rebounding recently, the populace and media display complacency via swine-flu jokes, jewelry, t-shirts, songs and dances, and the widespread accusation that the World Health Organization overreacted to the outbreak. We have not seen the final bottom in social mood. More serious epidemics and more intense fear of disease will come later in the bear market, and jokes and t-shirt messages such as the one above won’t be considered funny or cute.
The October issue of The Socionomist is now online. The Socionomist is a new 8-10 page monthly publication from Prechter's Socionomics Institute designed to prepare you for important changes in social mood that most people never see coming. Take a look inside and learn how to get a free DVD with your subscription>>
The Socionomist went on to describe how negative social mood includes a psychology and physiology that facilitates present and past epidemics. The bear market rally from the March lows is a product of the same rising optimism that has convinced some to dismiss the flu risk. For example, the Daily Tar Heel article reports that students at John Hopkins University have a phrase of choice to describe someone infected with the virus: a "pig in a blanket." University officials at John Hopkins even compiled a glossary of humorous terminology to educate people about swine flu. A “piglet” is an infected freshman, while an infected person’s room is a “pigpen.” “We put out a tongue-in-cheek glossary that got information out in a humorous way,” said the executive director of communications and public affairs at Johns Hopkins.
At Emory University in Atlanta, a dorm slated for demolition was instead reserved to house people infected with the virus. Survivors wear t-shirts which say “I survived swine flu hall.” A Penn State University student who was diagnosed with the virus created a swine flu party "event" on Facebook. Such parties are a new trend whereby people try to acquire swine flu, in the hope that they'll be immune if it becomes more dangerous later on. The Center for Disease Control warns against such parties because the virus can be fatal; Penn State also warned the student upon her diagnosis. Even so, her comment captured the sentiment of many students today: “Everything about swine flu is very funny. It is the normal flu, but you have to stay isolated and wear a painter’s mask.”
The Socionomist not only described the risks of a complacent attitude toward this virus -- it also offered a very good reason not to attend a swine flu party:
The World Health Organization fears that adults could be acting as symptomless disease carriers. Dr. Robert Webster, the world’s leading authority on the disease, said: “If this damn thing becomes less pathogenic, it will become more transmissible.” In other words, the more time that the virus spends in humans without killing them, the more likely it will mutate into a more contagious form, a pre-requisite for a deadly pandemic.
Attending such parties could actually fuel a deadly pandemic. To adopt the complacent, incautious attitude of your peers could be fatal. Swine-flu jokes may be vogue right now, yet the June Socionomist forecasts that, “more serious epidemics and more intense fear of disease will come later in the bear market, and jokes and t-shirt messages such as the one above won’t be considered funny or cute.”
Don’t be a pig in a blanket. Learn how to avoid getting caught up in trends in social mood and to evaluate the news from the socionomic perspective by starting a subscription today. Find out more about this important publication and begin your subscription here.