It was only some nine days ago -- Sunday, July 31 -- that the President and Congressional leadership announced "they had agreed to a framework for a budget deal."
And before the markets opened for trading the next morning, media coverage of the "budget deal" story sounded a lot like this:
"Investors were hopeful that approval of the deal by Congress would cause the markets to rebound after tumbling 3.9 percent last week."
New York Times, July 31
By now you're well aware that "rebound" is the wrong word to describe what followed.
As I write this, the Dow has lost more than 1,000 points since August 1. In other words: The media made it sound like the stock market was down when it looked like no budget deal would happen, but then prices fell even further when a deal did happen.
And of course, the debt downgrade story which broke this past Friday evening (Aug. 5) is a ready-made "cause" for Monday's large decline. But the TREND was ALREADY unfolding. What's more, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast just happened to publish on the morning of August 5: Here's what subscribers were reading several hours before S&P actually announced the debt downgrade:
"Following the dictates of a negative trend in social mood, the credit-rating industry is putting its foot down.... In recent days, S&P even said that the chance of a U.S. government debt downgrade from AAA to AA stood at 50%. When it happens, it will help accelerate leverage reductions throughout the debt markets, as more collateral will be needed to cover the lower-ranked loans. This is just one more way that the downward spiral reinforces itself."
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, Aug. 5.
Notice the language: not "If" it happens, but "When it happens..." Also please note that we say social mood is dictating events, not the other way around. That's the place to begin if you want to anticipate what's next.