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Video: How Wave Analysis Caught a 700-Pip Drop in USD/JPY
New video Elliott wave lesson in identifying a trading opportunity.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/13/2013 3:15:00 PM

On May 30, when dollar/yen was trading above 101, the editor of EWI's forex-focused Currency Specialty Service, Jim Martens, recorded a 6-minute video for his subscribers. In it, Jim said that USD/JPY was about to fall in a "third-of-a-third" sell-off, the strongest and fastest part of the Elliott wave sequence. Since then, USDJPY fell from above 101 to a low of 93.78 June 13 -- a 700+ pip move. Watch Jim's video in its entirety now. It's an Elliott wave lesson in identifying a trading opportunity that every forex trader can use again and again.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, forex, forex trading, Japanese yen, trading lessons, U.S. dollar, usd/jpy, video

Category: Currencies


AUDUSD: Falling Into an Opportunity
Instead of the "fundamentals," Elliott waves track the shifts of market players' collective psychology, the true driver of the trend.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/11/2013 9:45:00 PM

On June 11, AUDUSD fell to an almost 3-year low. The mainstream attributed Aussie dollar weakness to… well, you name it. A report showing that Australia's "home-loan approvals grew at the slowest pace in three months"? Check. Expectations for "further cuts to borrowing costs"? Check...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: A Calm Before the Storm
The reason "fundamental" analysis is so popular is because it just makes sense. There is just one problem with this approach...

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/5/2013 2:00:00 PM

Fact is, many forex traders stay glued to the economic news. Mainstream forex analysts mostly discuss the same factors. The reason "fundamental" analysis is so popular is because it just makes sense. (Well, most of the time.) There is just one problem with this approach, namely...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, forex, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies


USDJPY Below 100: Topped, Or Paused Before a New Rally?
USDJPY would have fallen regardless of what the U.S. manufacturing report said on Monday

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/3/2013 4:45:00 PM

On June 3, dollar-yen fell below the psychologically important level of 100. The move towards the stronger Japanese yen was pinned on the weak U.S. manufacturing report, released at 10 a.m. Monday. But the report wasn't the real reason; it simply gave a nudge to the collective psychology of forex traders -- who were already dollar-bearish before the news.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, forex, forex trading, Japanese yen, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, usd/jpy

Category: Currencies


Market Insight: Truncated 5th Wave in EURUSD?
A truncation typically signals the presence of underlying or hidden selling or buying pressure.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/30/2013 10:15:00 PM

A basic Elliott wave sequence consists of 5 waves in the direction of the larger trend and 3 waves against it. A 5-wave move is called an "impulse." Each of the 5 waves of an impulse carries the price further and further. Except that -- well, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes, you get a situation when wave 5 fails to go beyond wave 3. Like this...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Market Insight: USDJPY Completes a 5-Wave Rally
Once the market makes the move, it's easy to find economic or political factors to pin it on. What’s hard is to know where the market will go before the news.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/16/2013 5:15:00 PM

On May 15, just as EURUSD broke below the psychologically important price level of 1.30, USDJPY staged a rally. The mainstream forex news sources cited various fundamental factors for the dollar strength/yen weakness. Yet, as you have probably noticed, those explanations almost always make perfect sense -- but only after the fact.

Filed Under: currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, forex, forex trading, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, usd/jpy

Category: Currencies


EURUSD Drops Below 1.30... Why, Again?
Wave analysis works because it helps you track the waves of the market's crowd psychology, which unfold in predictable patterns.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/16/2013 4:30:00 PM

It's official: The euro zone economy has now been in the longest recession since the EUR was introduced in 1999. That news hit the wires on May 15. No wonder EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, fell that day as the U.S. dollar took the upper hand. But let's take a look at what happened from an Elliott wave perspective...

Filed Under: currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, eurozone, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: Lots of Ups and Downs, Zero Net Progress

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/9/2013 2:30:00 PM

Here's what's interesting. Since the start of May, the euro bulls have tried to rally EURUSD higher at least five times. On May 8, we saw the latest attampt at a rally. It went as high as 1.3195. Then on May 9, the market fell again. That has been the fate of every rally, so far ...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


While EURUSD Lags, Other Forex Markets Are on the Move
While the euro has gone flat, USDCAD, USDCHF and EURJPY have done -- or are about to do -- the opposite.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/7/2013 6:45:00 PM

If EURUSD were a cardiac patient, this is the moment when the doctor would give the order: "Do not attempt to resuscitate." Seriously, take a look at what the euro has done since the start of this month...

Filed Under: currency, Elliott Wave trading, euro, forex, forex trading, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, usd/jpy

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: Post-Fed, Post-ECB Market Insight

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/3/2013 5:00:00 PM

Our May 1 story "EURUSD: The First Shoe Drops" said that the world's most-popular forex pair was about to turn lower, after finishing a 5-wave upward move. EURUSD topped the same day at 1.3243, and since then has lost about 200 pips -- so far...

Filed Under: currency, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: The First Shoe Drops
The Fed statement on Wednesday disappointed some, but Elliott waves have stayed a step ahead.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/1/2013 4:45:00 PM

Gotta love "the Fed talk" -- as in, the central bank's statement on Wednesday afternoon: "The committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its (bond) purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes." Let's translate that...

 

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), forex, forex trading, quantitative easing, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: Big Week Ahead
Will the euro rally or fall on the news from the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/29/2013 5:15:00 PM

Two news stories from Europe hit the headlines Monday morning (Apr. 29). One: Italy finally ended its political chaos and swore in the new government. Two: The eurozone economic confidence fell more than expected. EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most traded forex market, rose on Monday. But pretend for a second that you didn't know that. Try this instead...

Filed Under: consumer confidence, currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, eurozone, forex, forex trading, Traders, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: Below 1.30, Again
Odds are, this opportunity is still young.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/23/2013 9:00:00 PM

On April 23, the world's most traded forex pair slipped 20 pips below the psychologically-important level of 1.30. Predictably, analysts blamed the sell-off on a fundamental factor -- namely, a weak economic report from Germany. A fine explanation indeed, yet one question remains: Now that we know why EURUSD fell, where will it go next?

 

Filed Under: currency, Elliott Wave trading, euro, forex, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


USDJPY: Will It?..
Given how close the yen has come to the psychologically-important level of 100, everyone wants to know: Will it break above?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/22/2013 3:45:00 PM

To answer this question from an Elliott wave perspective, you need to study the wave patterns in USDJPY. Let's take a look...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, forex, forex trading, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, usd/jpy

Category: Currencies


Market Insight: GBPUSD Enters a Strong Sell-Off
By the looks of it, the decline has much more to go.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/19/2013 5:45:00 PM

"Britain’s pound depreciated versus most of its major peers after Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.K.’s long-term credit rating one step to AA+ from AAA," reported Bloomberg on April 19. The day before, our Currency Specialty Service posted the following forecast...

Filed Under: currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, forex trading, sterling, technical analysis, trade targets, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Are Successful Forex Traders Just REALLY Lucky?
In 2004, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan compared successful currency traders to "winners of coin-tossing contests." Fair? No? You decide...

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/17/2013 2:30:00 PM

In 2004, in a speech before the Economic Club of New York, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan compared successful currency traders to "winners of coin-tossing contests." Fair? No? You decide ...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave trading, forex, forex trading, Greenspan, market forecasts, technical analysis, technical indicators, trading lessons, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies


Video: "GBPUSD: Why We Knew Cable Was Going Higher, and Where It Should Go from Here"
A new video lesson in applying Elliott waves to forex markets

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/12/2013 4:15:00 PM

Once a week on Fridays, our Currency Specialty Service editor, Jim Martens, records a video update for his subscribers. The goal of each forex video is to bring attention to a promising market opportunity, as well as deliver an Elliott wave lesson. On April 5, Jim recorded the video you are about to see...

Filed Under: forex, forex trading, sterling, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, video

Category: Currencies


EURUSD Hits the Elliott Wave Price Target
A fresh example of an "ending diagonal" wave pattern in action.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/10/2013 1:30:00 PM

On April 4, EURUSD, the world's favorite forex pair, fell to another new low for 2013 but only by 6 pips! You have to ask yourself: Why didn't the U.S. dollar muster the strength to push the euro lower than 1.2750? After all, the euro's fundamentals have been less than rosy. This insight offers some answers ...

 

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


USDJPY: How Much Higher Will It Go?
You've heard that the Japanese yen is doomed. Now see what Elliott waves are saying.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/9/2013 4:00:00 PM

"Yen Weakens Beyond 99 per Dollar for First Time Since May 2009," said an April 8 headline. True, USDJPY, the dollar-yen exchange rate and a popular forex pair, has been on fire -- for months. This chart shows you just how huge the rally in the U.S. dollar -- and the weakness in the yen -- have been...

Filed Under: Bank of Japan, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, forex, forex trading, Japanese yen, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, usd/jpy

Category: Currencies


Forex: Don't Write Off The Euro Just Yet
"We all know the euro is going lower," is today's popular sentiment. Yet Elliott waves suggest there is hope for the euro yet.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/28/2013 4:00:00 PM

Despite the "success" of the Cyprus bailout, the sentiment towards the euro zone currency, the euro, has been negative. EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, fell to a new low for 2013. But while "everyone knows the euro is going lower," read this recent tweet by EWI's senior currency strategist...

Filed Under: bailouts, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, European debt crisis, eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


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© 2013 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.