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Crude Oil May Head Back Above $100 If...
Objective analysis of crude oil's near-term trend provides key levels to support higher prices

By Nico Isaac
6/13/2013 1:00:00 PM

Wednesday June 12 quickly turned into a cooler-talking day for crude oil investors, mostly because the market completely ignored the bearish fundamental backdrop. "Crude does not have any real reason to turn around and rally," reported one news source. Yet, rally is exactly what crude prices did.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Robert Prechter, supply and demand, Traders

Category: Energy


Natural Gas (and UNG): Will Summer Heat Cool off Prices Even More?
While mainstream analysts worry about "fundamentals," here's what stands out to our own energy market expert.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/12/2013 5:45:00 PM

On June 12, crude oil hit a three-week high. Yet another key member of the energy complex, natural gas, did the opposite and fell to a two-month low. The drop was blamed on expectation of "a bigger-than-average increase in U.S. stockpiles," which "doesn’t bode well for higher prices in the future.” Looking at the trend over the past few weeks, it's easy to understand such bearish opinions...

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, futures trading, natural gas, technical analysis

Category: Energy


Is the Natural Gas Boom Only Just Beginning?
Supply/Demand data is NOT the key to unlock the long-term trend

By Nico Isaac
5/31/2013 4:15:00 PM

Over the past year, the natural gas market has gone from Tony Stark to Iron Man. Meaning, from the April 2012 low natgas prices have skyrocketed 120% to the loftiest level in two years. Which raises the question: Is this only the start of the natural gas boom?

Filed Under: Elliott wave, natural gas, supply and demand, Traders

Category: Energy


Three Things Crude Oil MUST Do to Wake the Bear
Don't get caught in the demand data crosshairs.

By Nico Isaac
5/15/2013 3:00:00 PM

"News is irrelevant to trends." This revelation comes straight out of the pages of Robert Prechter's 2004 book "Prechter's Perspective." This notion completely goes against the gospel of mainstream economic wisdom. It also happens to be true, as the recent media storm surrounding crude oil makes plain.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, Traders

Category: Energy


The End of A Multi-Month Holding Pattern in Crude Oil?
EWI's Metals Specialty Service uses pattern analysis to a potential post-triangle thrust in crude oil prices.

By Nico Isaac
5/8/2013 4:30:00 PM

For many traders, a long sideways trend in prices chart is akin to getting stuck on a one-lane road behind a very slow car. Those are the times when patience wears thin. The mainstream financial media cloaks words that would be spoken in anger into family-friendly phrases like, "Equivocal price action" and "Waiting on a fundamental catalyst to provide direction."
 

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Traders

Category: Energy


Crude Oil's Near Term Trend: Does Every Millisecond Count?
The ultimate head start in navigating crude oil is Elliott wave analysis

By Nico Isaac
5/2/2013 11:00:00 AM

When it comes to trading commodity markets, time is not a sensitive issue, it's the sensitive issue. That truth was reinforced by a recent Wall Street Journal article titled "High-Speed Traders Exploit Loophole."  That loophole is the time lag between when high-speed computer traders receive order confirmations on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, vs.when the public receives confirmations -- specifically, a lag of "one-to-ten milliseconds"  (a thousand milliseconds equals one second.)

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, online trading, Traders

Category: Energy


Why Are Crude Oil Prices Dropping? Not Why Many People Think
If you follow the logic of the "fundamentals," chances are you'll be fundamentally lost

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/16/2013 10:30:00 PM

Gold wasn't the only market that fell out of bed Monday morning (April 15). Crude oil also fell -- as low as $86.06 a barrel over the past couple of trading days. If you've read opinions as to why oil is getting cheaper, a common reason cited by the pundits is that oil reflects the state of the global economy. Interesting. If that is true, then what you see in these charts must be false.

Filed Under: crude oil, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, futures trading, inflation, technical analysis

Category: Energy


Crude Oil Analysis Without the 800-pound Swinging Cyprus Gorilla on its Back
On March 1, Energy Specialty Service outlined a near-term bullish scenario in crude oil

By Nico Isaac
3/26/2013 5:45:00 PM

According to the mainstream experts, crude oil prices are "struggling to find direction due to the confusing position taken by authorities in reaction to Cyprus." Yet if you look elsewhere regarding crude's price trend -- like a basic chart of crude like the one below -- you can easily see that the market has had no problem finding a direction...

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, europe, eurozone, Traders

Category: Energy


Impulsive Price Action Could Be on Tap for the US Oil Exchange Traded Fund
The 2011-2012 sell off in natural gas is why Elliott third waves are "wonders to behold."

By Nico Isaac
3/13/2013 5:30:00 PM

My personal favorite Elliott wave pattern, of all 13 known patterns, is the third wave. To witness a wave 3 in action is “a powerful sight to see.” The first chart below of natural gas comes from EWI's January 2011 Global Market Perspective. It showed prices gearing up for a third-of-a-third wave decline to $2 -- a level the market had not seen in over a decade. 

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, natural gas, Ralph Nelson Elliott, Traders

Category: Energy


Here's What Has to Happen to Confirm an Uptrend In Crude Oil
Instead of 'Chavez news,' Energy Specialty Service follows critical support levels to forecast oil price trends

By Nico Isaac
3/7/2013 6:15:00 PM

The death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has been all over the news, but few observers are ready to make bold declarations about that country's political future. Mainstream financial experts, however, have not hesitated to assess what impact Chavez's demise will have on crude oil prices. After all, Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, earning its nickname "Saudi Arabia of South America."

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, Traders

Category: Energy


Navigating Crude Oil Requires EPS: Elliott (wave) Positioning System
Energy Specialty Services: Using Elliott wave analysis to anticipate the near-term turns in crude oil

By Nico Isaac
3/4/2013 7:15:00 PM

On Feb. 12 EWI's Energy Specialty Service editor Steve Craig recorded a special video take on the near-term Elliott wave pattern unfolding in crude oil. There, Steve plugged a bullish wave count into his EPS -- the Elliott wave Positioning System. The "map" (i.e. chart) and directions appeared.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, Traders

Category: Energy


Market Insight: Crude Rises, But Other Members of Energy Complex Fall
Such "dissention in the ranks" is worth noting

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/27/2013 6:30:00 PM

"West Texas Intermediate oil rose in New York as U.S. durable goods and housing data exceeded forecasts, signs an economic rebound may spur fuel demand," said a February 27 news headline. Technically, yes, WTI oil did close higher for the day: up 13 cents. But for a market that can move $3-$4 a day...

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, futures trading, technical analysis

Category: Energy


This Isn't the First We've Heard of a Natural Gas Supply Glut
As natural gas prices fall, mainstream experts claim excess supply explains the downtrend

By Nico Isaac
2/19/2013 5:45:00 PM

Natural gas is a volatile commodity in more ways than one – including its price swings in the futures market. So, it goes without saying that energy traders and investors want analysis that helps navigate the sudden turns in natural gas prices. And, ever since the first fossil fuels were extracted from the earth, mainstream experts seem to know only one way to think about near-term price trends ...

Filed Under: commodities, crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, natural gas, supply and demand, Traders

Category: Energy


Crude Oil: What's Behind February 15 Sell-Off?
An Elliott wave insight into the latest price action in oil.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/15/2013 5:00:00 PM

Saying that crude oil fell on February 5 "after U.S. industrial production unexpectedly shrank" is a perfectly logical explanation for the reason behind crude's February 15 sell-off. However, Elliott wave patterns in oil charts warned of the decline the day before.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, futures trading, technical analysis

Category: Energy


Have Crude Oil Prices Surpassed Key Bearish Resistance?
Energy traders look for crude's near-term trend. Macroeconomic data vs. Elliott wave analysis.

By Nico Isaac
1/29/2013 5:15:00 PM

On Jan. 29, crude prices rallied to their highest level in four months. But as the recent slew of news stories below makes plain, the mainstream outlook failed the "consistency" test regarding what would drive crude's near-term trend. One side said political unrest in the Middle East is bullish for crude. While another news source said political unrest is a non-event.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, Traders, volume

Category: Energy


Market Insight: Crude Oil Futures Experience Possible "Failed 5th Wave"
Applying basic Elliott wave analysis to crude oil prices

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/28/2013 7:15:00 PM

On January 28, crude oil futures popped to an intraday high of $96.81 a barrel. Then, just as quickly, the price fell to an intraday low of $95.47. The fast rally/decline sequence could have been a possible "truncated fifth [wave] following a triangle." Here's what that is...

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, futures trading, technical analysis

Category: Energy


Market Insight: Crude Oil Futures
Price is diverging with momentum

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/22/2013 10:15:00 PM

"Oil is emerging from an Elliott wave triangle, accompanied by momentum divergence," says EWI's Chief Energy Analyst and editor of the firm's Energy Specialty Service, Steve Craig.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, market forecasts

Category: Energy


Are the Days of the Crude Oil Rally Numbered?
When it comes to objective analysis of crude oil's near-term trend, there is only one choice: Energy Specialty Service

By Nico Isaac
1/18/2013 6:15:00 PM

Sometimes it's great to have a boatload of choices at your disposal. I like nothing more than to be able to walk into my favorite pizza joint and order a no cheese, thin-crust pie with white sauce, half ham, half pineapple... and hold the basil. But when it comes to financial market analysis, having a multitude of price forecasts can put you at a serious disadvantage. Take, for instance, the recent news stories regarding crude oil. On Jan. 18, crude oil prices soared to their highest level in four months. That was the easy part.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, supply and demand, Traders

Category: Energy


Market Insight: Crude Oil

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/15/2013 9:15:00 PM

In crude oil, there's been a lot of up and down lately, but not a whole lot of up OR down. The market remains "uncommitted" to a trend. Here's what the chart of crude looks like since the start of the year...

Filed Under: commodities, crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading

Category: Energy


Market Insight: Crude Oil

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/9/2013 5:15:00 PM

The year started slowly for crude oil futures. As you can see on this chart (Elliott wave labels not shown), trading has been range-bound between $91 and $92 a barrel.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, technical analysis

Category: Energy


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© 2013 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.