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Oil & Stocks: Mortal Enemies?
The Media's Comic Book Version of Markets

by Nico Isaac
9/3/2008 11:00:00 AM

Imagine reading all about Wall Street in comic book form. The superhero of the story would be the U.S. stock market. Who would be the bad guy? Well, if reporting by the financial press is any indication, the villainous Black Gold. The two characters stand at opposite extremes of light and dark, good and evil. If one is rising, the other must always be falling...

Filed Under:
Category: Energy


Crude Oil: A “Gut-wrenching, Volatile, Fear-laden” Move Ahead
P.S. Hurricane activity means Hooey to Oil’s overall trend

by Nico Isaac
8/26/2008 4:30:00 PM

The energy in-crowd spends more time watching changes in climate patterns than Al Gore. Their main goal: Spot “bullish” storm activity in oil producing regions that could damage supply and therefore, spark a rise in prices. Problem is, hurricane activity means hooey to oil's overall trend...

Filed Under: Crude oil, oil, hurricane, gustav, Energy
Category: Energy


Why Are Oil Prices Falling? (Video)
Now that oil is down 25% off its peak, people are asking why are prices falling, and so fast?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
8/15/2008 8:15:00 PM
Now that oil has taken a 25% dive off that peak (in less than a month!), people are asking – why is the price falling, and so fast? And that's a very good question. Did the global demand for oil suddenly take a u-turn? Is there peace in the Middle East? Have speculators shifted their attention to other markets? Watch this free video for an Elliott wave perspective.
Filed Under: Crude oil, Russia, Georgia, supply shortages, global demand for oil, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline
Category: Energy


Will OIL Prices Continue To Fall?
And why they started to slide in the first place…

by Nico Isaac
8/6/2008 5:15:00 PM
Public (Economic) Enemy Number One -- the soaring oil market -- has been caught. The damage from its record-smashing rally contained. From their all-time July 11, 2008 peak, crude prices have plunged to a three-month low. One day before the FALL, our Specialty Service Energy Outlook acknowledged the market's downside potential...
Filed Under: Crude oil, Energy, oil fall, geopolitical unrest
Category: Energy


Crude Oil: Drilling For Opportunity
On July 11, a perfect fundamental bullish storm SHOULD HAVE sent crude prices to the moon. Instead...

by Nico Isaac
7/24/2008 4:15:00 PM

July 11, 2008 was the unofficial D-Day for the Crude Oil market. “D” -- as in, DOWN. From that most recent peak, oil prices have plummeted more than $20, to a two-month low. The real shocker: On that date, a perfect fundamental bullish storm SHOULD HAVE sent crude prices to the moon...

Filed Under: Crude oil, Energy, oil, futures, Commodities, orange juice
Category: Energy


Crude Oil Crashes: Temporary Glitch - or - Lasting Trend Change?
One of these things is not like the other one…

by Nico Isaac
7/16/2008 4:45:00 PM

In the end, fundamental analysis masks the true “sound” of a market’s underlying trend. In the case of oil: The most recent selloff in crude kicked off on July 11. One day earlier, on July 10, EWI's Energy Specialty Service acknowledged the downside potential in the market’s near-term future...

Filed Under: Crude oil, Energy, oil, economic woes
Category: Energy


(Video) $147 Oil: What Is Driving Up Prices?
Crude's latest rally makes sense even in the absence of truly bullish news.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
7/11/2008 6:00:00 PM

Crude oil rallied to another all-time high on Friday, July 11 – to $147.27 a barrel. But glance at the headlines, and it's hard to call the reasons analysts cite as the cause for the $5-rally as bullish news. However, from the standpoint of Elliott wave analysis, crude's rally makes sense, with or without the news. This free video explains why.

Filed Under: Why Oil Prices Change, $147 a barrel, Iran, crude, brent
Category: Energy


Oil Prices: Thorn In Stocks' Side?

by Nico Isaac
6/17/2008 4:15:00 PM
Word on Wall Street is -- High oil prices are to rising equities what a blaring siren is to baking soufflé. See: Friday, June 13 news item regarding the 365 point cave in of the Dow Jones Industrial Average: “Oil prices were the primary culprit [for] the epic collapse.” (Forbes)
The problem is -- there’s no concrete evidence whatsoever to support such a claim. Never has been.
Filed Under: Crude oil, us stocks, dow jones industrial average
Category: Energy


Oil Prices: Everybody Panic!...?
Sure, they're sensational. But do they drive the financial market? Hardly.

by Euan Wilson
6/3/2008 5:00:00 PM
Everyone's complaining about it because everyone is a consumer: Oil prices seem to show up in everything we buy. From the gas pump to electricity to food to the cost of Saran Wrap, oil rules our wallets. Question is: Do oil prices also rule the financial markets? Here's one answer...
Filed Under: prechter's perspective, oil, Prices, mania, Manias, News, Media
Category: Energy


VIDEO: Oil Above $133. What Is Driving Up Prices?
You can forecast crude oil prices without relying on the supply/demand fundamentals.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/21/2008 5:45:00 PM

On Wednesday (May 21), crude oil futures closed above $133 for the first time in history. The spike was blamed on an "unexpected drop in U.S. stockpiles," among other factors. That's a perfectly good explanation – after the fact. But what if we told you that one analyst foresaw this week's rally in crude several days before it began – and without relying on the supply/demand fundamentals? Watch this free video clip.

Filed Under: crude oil 133, new all-time high, high oil prices hurting U.S. stocks, u.s. inventories, Why Oil Prices Change, brent oil
Category: Energy


Why Oil Prices Change – Part III
And Seven Reasons Why Not

by Robert Folsom
5/8/2008 4:45:00 PM

For the most part, my research time proved an exercise in myth busting -- which is to say, I realized that I needed to explain what does not change oil prices before I could explain what does....

Filed Under:
Category: Energy


Why Oil Prices Change -- Part II

by Nico Isaac
5/6/2008 6:00:00 PM

These days, there’s more round-the-clock press coverage of soaring oil prices than of the Democratic party's primary elections. And, much like those political contests, each day the mainstream “experts” offer a new twist on the outcome...

Filed Under: oil, democratic primary, obama, clinton, supply shortage, weak dollar, Crude oil, Energy
Category: Energy


VIDEO: Why Oil Prices Change -- Part I
What affects the price of oil more: market sentiment or news headlines?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/6/2008 3:00:00 PM

Question: A militant attack on the Nigerian oil station happened on Sunday, May 4. The report projecting strong demand for oil from China came out on Tuesday, May 6. However, EWI's Energy Specialty Service made a bullish forecast for oil last Friday, May 2. How in the world did ESS know about those events two days in advance? Answer: It didn't...

Filed Under: Nigeria attack, crude oil record, demand from china, Why Oil Prices Change, What Affects The Price of Oil
Category: Energy


High Oil: Hurting U.S. Stocks?

by Nico Isaac
4/28/2008 5:00:00 PM
Day after day, the dwellers of Wall Street engage in their very own game of Musical Chairs. Here’s how it goes: When the broken record of fundamental economic wisdom stops playing, reality is left without a seat to sit in.  
Take, for instance, the widely held notion that crude oil prices move opposite equities...
Filed Under: Energy, Crude oil, dow jones industrial average, energy crisis
Category: Energy


Oil Prices: Who's To Blame?
Big Oil Bashing Redux

by Nico Isaac
4/3/2008 10:15:00 AM
On April 1, leaders of the top five U.S. oil companies stood before Congress to answer the following charge: Becoming filthy stinking rich off skyrocketing energy prices while Joe Public bleeds his pension dry in an effort to pay for gasoline.
Filed Under: big oil, Energy, Commodities, congress, oil, u.s. dollar
Category: Energy


Supply Fears, Oil Surges: Oops They Did It Again
A major flaw of conventional economic wisdom is blown open

by Nico Isaac
2/19/2008 5:15:00 PM

There is no exception to the power and persistence of social mood. When the time comes for it to trend DOWN, nothing, not even the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history, can stop it. For that very reason, the September 2005 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast went against the bullish crude oil crowd with a special, three-page energy exclusive. In it, our analysts identified a bearish divergence in the price of oil versus the price of a share of Exxon Mobil and wrote: "These signals, combined with street level fears of a gas shortage and the explosion of oil shock books, confirm the message: the coming shock' is not that oil is booming, but that it will fall"....

Filed Under: Crude oil, hurricane katrina, bulls, supply disruptions, perfect storm, OPEC, overproduction, shock, supply/demand
Category: Energy


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.