Elliott Wave International - Free Updates

Banks Need Therapy, Too

Alan Hall — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 04:15:00 ET

...a recent Atlanta Journal Constitution headline: “Therapists helping builders cope during housing slump.” The article explained how “Every builder seems to know a colleague swamped in debt, and a few know friends in the business who have taken their lives.” A year ago, few imagined that smiling builders talking on cell phones in big trucks would soon be seeking emotional support on therapists’ couches.

Gold: NOT The “Safe-Haven” You Think It Is

Nico Isaac — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 02:30:00 ET

According to mainstream financial wisdom, when the plane of the U.S. economy runs out of fuel in mid-air and starts hurtling toward the earth’s surface, investors do have one parachute of safety: Precious Metals. Think again...

Corn Prices: Is The Grain Set To Gain?

Nico Isaac — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 07:45:00 ET

The number one flaw of mainstream financial analysis is its tendency to show-up late to a market’s price action. It’s a lot like jumping out from behind the couch and yelling “Surprise!” at a birthday party – hours after the guest of honor has already arrived. Even then, the “gifts” of wisdom they bring to the table are often inconsistent and even inaccurate. Take, for instance, these former news stories regarding Corn...

345-Point Decline: Are You "In Search of A Reason"?

Robert Folsom — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 05:15:00 ET

Markets NEVER need a news-related "reason" to trend up or down -- if anything, today's stock market trend anticipates the type of broader news story you'll be reading tomorrow. This truth is lost on the vast majority of reporters and the public, who, in turn, go "in search of a reason" AFTER "a market decline."

Real Estate (Video): What's Next for Australia, Japan, China, India and Others?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 05:00:00 ET

Real estate is the one financial market everyone cares about. Now that home prices are down as much as 25% in some parts of the U.S., overseas homeowners – in Europe, Asia and Australia – are starting to worry about what will happen to values of their homes. Watch this free video for some answers.

Oil And Stocks: The "Correlation" Breaks Down

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 05:00:00 ET

"Most pundits were talking mainly about oil this morning [Sept. 2], which was extremely volatile. They tried to explain the strongly higher stock market open by the fact that oil prices were down big. By the end of today’s session very few market observers talked about oil and stocks together. The reason: both ended today’s market session DOWN..."

How Do You Know If You Have the Right Wave Count?

Jeffrey Kennedy, Senior Commodities Analyst — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 03:30:00 ET

A common question from EWI subscribers is: "On an unlabeled price chart, how do you identify the start of the Wave pattern?"

That's a good question, and is exactly the kind that Senior Commodities Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy loves to answer. His passion is teaching, and every month Jeffrey's Monthly Futures Junctures presents a lesson in technical analysis via his "Trader's Classroom." This excerpt, edited for brevity, comes from an old favorite: "How Do You Know If You Have the Right Wave Count?"

Oil & Stocks: Mortal Enemies?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:00:00 ET

Imagine reading all about Wall Street in comic book form. The superhero of the story would be the U.S. stock market. Who would be the bad guy? Well, if reporting by the financial press is any indication, the villainous Black Gold. The two characters stand at opposite extremes of light and dark, good and evil. If one is rising, the other must always be falling...

European Stocks: At First, They Said…

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 06:00:00 ET

At first, they said that the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis would not affect the rest of the world – because seriously, how can someone's default on their mortgage payments in Iowa or Kansas do that? And here we are – a year later, and hardly out of the woods.

Why a New U.S. President Can't Change the Bearish Trend

Editorial Staff — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 03:00:00 ET

When the overall social mood changes to negative, no one person – no matter how powerful – can change it. Here's an excerpt from the latest Elliott Wave Theorist that explains why.

Did You Ever Think A Financial Crisis Would Feel Like This?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 11:00:00 ET

Pictures and video footage I've seen from the Great Depression almost always shows unmistakable signs of a real economic tragedy: people lined up on the street, waiting for help; homeless sleeping on a park bench; families living in tents; and everywhere – misery, desolation and despair. Looking around now, I see none of those things. If anything, I see the opposite...

Grains: The Whole Truth And Nothing But

Nico Isaac — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 07:30:00 ET

According to the mainstream experts, corn, wheat, and soybeans are the Three Huskateers, with prices in each market abiding by the original motto: “All for one and one for all.” One look at our powerful close-up of prices in the three grain markets over the last two decades, AND the truth might surprise you...

U.S. Financial Crisis: NOT A "Shock" To Our System

Nico Isaac — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 05:45:00 ET

Think the U.S. economy has gone to the dogs? You may be more right than you thought. A Wednesday, August 27 L.A. Times article explains why consumer confidence is sinking to a 40-year low, via a science experiment involving -- well -- two obedient canines. Here’s the gist:

What Does A Contracting Triangle In Soybeans Mean For You?

Euan Wilson — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 05:00:00 ET

A lot can happen in a week, especially in the commodities markets.

That's why Senior Commodities Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy writes the Daily Futures Junctures Weekly Wrap-up each Friday. Jeffrey uses these updates to review and post forecast charts for every major commodity market. He also records a video update which allows him to talk about each one of his charts in depth.

By way of example, here's an excerpt of last Friday's update, with Jeffrey discussing what the week's action in Soybeans means for the future:

Video: How Do You Pick Best Stocks and Sectors?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 04:45:00 ET

The question “How do I pick the best stock?” is as old as the stock market itself. You’ve probably heard about a method or two, and you may already be using them – maybe even successfully. Watch this free 7-minute video and learn a new tip from an industry expert.

Crude Oil: A “Gut-wrenching, Volatile, Fear-laden” Move Ahead

Nico Isaac — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 04:30:00 ET

The energy in-crowd spends more time watching changes in climate patterns than Al Gore. Their main goal: Spot “bullish” storm activity in oil producing regions that could damage supply and therefore, spark a rise in prices. Problem is, hurricane activity means hooey to oil's overall trend...

When Will the Media Get It? Someone Did Foresee the Credit Crisis

Gary Grimes — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 12:30:00 ET

It’s no surprise homeowners felt invincible; they'd been told to feel that way every day. The mainstream media – the group who believes they're supposed to question authority for the good of John Q. Public – got caught with their pants down. Government agencies appeared equally inept – or at least unwilling to confront the problem. But there were a select few who not only knew, but were ready and waiting.

Currency Traders: Free Elliott Wave Forecasts, 36 Hrs Left

Jim Martens - Senior Currency Strategist — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 07:30:00 ET

Whenever I talk about how to use the Elliott Wave Principle in forex trading, I always spend the majority of the time talking about the price patterns R.N. Elliott provided us with over seventy years ago. Those patterns are the heart and soul of the Wave Principle. But more and more I'm asked prematurely about Fibonacci relationships. Here are some thoughts on that... (EWI's Currency Specialty Service FreeWeek continues through noon on August 27. Keep reading for details.)

Commodities Go Kerplunk: Why Are Prices Falling?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 04:45:00 ET

It’s official: The five-year long Commodity boom has gone from white-hot to white-not. To wit: since the start of July 2008, the futures markets have seen more jaw-dropping free falls than the Beijing Olympics diving competition...

Mr. Hull's Giant

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 06:45:00 ET

In the summer of 1868, Mr. George Hull of Binghamton, New York, decided to pull off a hoax. He had a gypsum block carved into the shape of a giant dead man, buried at a farm near Cardiff, New York -- and then later, he had it dug up. Thousands of people flocked to pay and see "Mr. Hull’s giant." And here we are, 140 years later...

How are Wave Analysis, Dow Theory and Fibonacci Related?

Editorial Staff — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 04:00:00 ET

To begin to understand the Elliott Wave Principle, it's a good idea to get to know how R. N. Elliott discovered it. Read Bob Prechter explaining how it all began.

Sweet Opportunity In Cocoa

Nico Isaac — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 05:15:00 ET

If financial markets are well-oiled machines that react mechanically to outside events, it stands to reason -- If you master the system, there’s no way to go wrong. In actuality, the story is quite different, as the recent action in COCOA makes plain...

The Best Time To Read Prechter’s Perspective Is Right NOW

Nico Isaac — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 03:15:00 ET

For those interested in seeing how the Wave Principle enabled Bob to anticipate the current wave of economic turmoil befalling the United States, Prechter’s Perspective outlines the following forecasts:

Scary Thought: A Bear Market That Lasts Forever?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 08:45:00 ET

By claiming that there is a "negative loop between the financial system and the broader economy," the International Monetary Fund is essentially saying that we will be stuck in this bear market forever – literally. Think about it...

Diagnosis: Soybeans

Euan Wilson — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 02:45:00 ET

If you have watched a few episodes of the hit TV series House, you know there is a specific formula for each episode. The gifted but fiercely independent doctor must find the answer to a medical mystery before the show's end — a total of 43 minutes. However, until that time, Dr. House and his team make any number of right and wrong moves, yet each one serves to reach the final, correct diagnosis.

An Elliott Wave technician's job works much the same way: not every Wave Count unfolds as expected. Yet even if you get off track, a mistaken forecast can still reveal the bigger story, as new facts flow in from the market.

Conquer the Crash Delivered Today's News in 2002

Alan Hall — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 05:30:00 ET

The truly remarkable part of the story is how early he saw them. Bob described the ways that many dominoes would fall before some of them were even set up. His earlier book, At the Crest of the Tidal Wave was published in 1995, while Conquer the Crash was in 2002. This was years before the gathering storm became obvious to “Dr. Doom,” (the New York Times’ name for economist Nouriel Roubini) who described parts of the bursting bubble in 2006.

Currency Traders: Get Elliott Wave Forex Forecasts Free

Editorial Staff — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 09:45:00 ET

At Elliott Wave International, we have been forecasting the markets for 30 years. We can help you understand how the markets work and teach you a popular forecasting method that may help you formulate a trading strategy: Elliott wave analysis. It's a method many traders use, because it helps you to accomplish three crucial goals: Identify the trend, stay with it, and know when the trend is likely over. And you're in luck! Because from noon to noon on August 20 through August 27, you can have full, free access to Elliott Wave International's forex forecasts. Click for details.

The Fall Line-up Preview (In Commodities)

Euan Wilson — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 09:30:00 ET

It's late summer, which means a boring TV schedule with nothing but reruns. If you're a Law & Order or CSI type, you might be longing for some good courtroom drama right now. Look no further than the August issue of Monthly Futures Junctures: Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy is the expert on the witness stand and you, the jury, learn the answers to the commodity market's toughest questions.

Why Are Oil Prices Falling? (Video)

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 08:15:00 ET

Now that oil has taken a 25% dive off that peak (in less than a month!), people are asking – why is the price falling, and so fast? And that's a very good question. Did the global demand for oil suddenly take a u-turn? Is there peace in the Middle East? Have speculators shifted their attention to other markets? Watch this free video for an Elliott wave perspective.

There's a Big Reason To Keep Your Eye on Silver

Editorial Staff — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 03:15:00 ET

Watching a market like silver rise or fall dramatically does take the breath away.Yet Bob Prechter has explained why silver's moves are important not only to investors and traders but also to the U.S. economy as a whole.

Will Tonight Be A Historic Night for Silver?

Mike Drakulich - Senior Metals Analyst — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 01:00:00 ET

EWI Senior Metals Analyst Mike Drakulich published the following urgent message to his Metals Specialty Service subscribers at 8:57 p.m. Eastern time Thursday, Aug. 14. Since then, he has added multiple chart-filled intraday updates, including detailed near-term forecasts for gold and silver.

EURUSD: How To Know The Trend BEFORE The News

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 06:00:00 ET

The U.S. dollar rallied strongly against the euro in intraday trading on August 14, pushing the exchange rate down to $1.4780 – the level the rate hasn't seen since February. What's behind such a persistent show of strength on the dollar's part? As usual, it depends on whom you ask. Here is an elliott wave perspective...

Gold at $801 (Video): Why Is Price Falling?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 07:15:00 ET

On August 12, gold and silver hit the lows they've not seen in almost a year: Gold dropped to a low of $801 an ounce in the intraday trading, and silver fell towards $14. Why? Watch this free video for an Elliott wave perspective.

Emerging Markets: Still The "Safe Havens?"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 05:30:00 ET

Surely you've heard opinions that even if the stock markets in the U.S. and other developed countries experienced "a correction," the emerging markets would be just fine. Well, here we are. It's August 2008, a little over a year into the global liquidity crisis. China's Shanghai Composite stock index is down 50% from its all-time high; India's BSE SENSEX is down about 40%; and Russia's RTS is down over 30%. Why?

Pop Quiz: What Comes After A Five-Wave Impulse Move?

Euan Wilson — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 10:15:00 ET

It's mid-August, which means the kids will soon be back in school. If you recall any of your returning days to class, perhaps the memory is how smooth and easy it was, with little schoolwork beyond a simple quiz. But the markets only take off on weekends and federal holidays -- so an investor shouldn't find the Pop Quiz question in the headline too demanding, especially since we'll provide the answer now, to wit: After a five-wave impulse move (in either direction) come a three wave corrective move.

U.S. Dollar Is Coming Alive -- But For How Long?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 04:45:00 ET

From August 4 to August 8, the U.S. Dollar wiped the floor with its currency counterparts in a head-spinning performance it's being called the “watershed week” for the long-suffering buck.Yet in all the hullabaloo, the mainstream media failed to notice one major detail: namely, there was absolutely no “fundamental” reason for the dollar’s climb.

10 Things You Should and Should Not Do in This Bear Market

Gary Grimes — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 05:00:00 ET

With chapter titles like “Should You Invest in … Bonds, Real Estate, Precious Metals, Collectibles, Cash,” Robert Prechter’s New York Times best seller, Conquer the Crash, is the ultimate “How To Do,” “What To Do” and “Should You Do” guide for investors.

Why Phi? August 14 Marks the Golden Mean

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 05:00:00 ET

As the unofficial governing body that oversees the celebration of Phi Day, we here at Elliott Wave International have a bit of a conundrum on our hands. Should Phi Day be 6-18 or 8-14? We can explain.

U.S. Economy's Mascot: Grizzly Bear

Nico Isaac — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 04:45:00 ET

08.08.08: The long-awaited Summer FINANCIAL Olympic Games has begun. Hosted by the August 2008 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, this event showcases the world’s leading economic athletes as they compete in the race toward opportunity. Here are just a few of the event’s most show-stopping details:

"Skirmish," "Invasion," and/or "War" Between Russia and Georgia

Robert Folsom — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 04:15:00 ET

The erupting conflict between Russia and the Republic of Georgia in South Ossetia can safely be described as an unscheduled news event: Initial news reports of the fighting ranged from "armed skirmish" to "invasion" to "war." Some news stories tried to offer a context to Friday's fighting, saying it represents the culmination of years of tension between Russia and Georgia. While the tension has indeed been long-standing, this still begs the question: Why is the "culmination" unfolding now?

European Credit Crisis: Disaffirmation

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 04:45:00 ET

It’s bad already. And it’s getting worse. Still, there are many who just don’t – or won’t – get it. The latter group is usually filled with politicians, too engaged in denial to fully grasp the fiscal and deflationary implications of this credit crisis.

Slaying the Many-Headed Monster in Coffee

Nico Isaac — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 04:30:00 ET

One of the biggest flaws of fundamental analysis is its tendency to present a multitude of outside factors for a given market --- All of which have conflicting implications. Case in point: The bullish, bearish, bullish, bearish news items regarding the Coffee market. Read the full story...

Why “Conquer The Crash” Is More Relevant Today Than Ever Before

Nico Isaac — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 04:15:00 ET

Suppose that all the conventional financial wisdom you've ever heard was written onto a large chalkboard -- and then someone gave you an eraser, a box of chalk, and the knowledge of how financial markets really work. That may be the kind of vision you'd have after reading Bob Prechter’s best selling book “Conquer The Crash.”

Two Grains Of Wheat In Two Barrels Of Chaff

Euan Wilson — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:45:00 ET

When it comes to foolishness, Shakespeare always gets straight to the point -- which brings to mind the work it usually takes to get the point of most financial media "analysis," because it's so often overwhelmed by useless chaff. And sadly, wheat is no exception

Elliott Wave: Narrow Down Your Options

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 09:00:00 ET

Fact: you never know for sure what kind of Elliott wave structure you're dealing with until it's complete. That's a sobering fact for many Elliott wave beginners. They often expect to count perfect five and three-wave structures in charts all the way down to milliseconds. But you just can't. For one, it has to do with the limitations of your data feed. But even if your data were perfect, some ambiguity with real-time wave counts would still remain. Here's how you handle that...

Will OIL Prices Continue To Fall?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 05:15:00 ET

Public (Economic) Enemy Number One -- the soaring oil market -- has been caught. The damage from its record-smashing rally contained. From their all-time July 11, 2008 peak, crude prices have plunged to a three-month low. One day before the FALL, our Specialty Service Energy Outlook acknowledged the market's downside potential...

The (non) Effect Of Rain On Corn Prices

Euan Wilson — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 05:30:00 ET

The financial media is very fond of linking a given market's price action to other stuff that happened in the same day -- but seldom do they explain why. First prices fall hard "as rain and cooler weather improved prospects for crops" -- and second, this one-day action is part of a 30% decline in corn over the past five weeks. But what about the first four weeks of that price decline, which included a shortage of rain and hotter-than-usual temperatures?

Real Estate and "Phone Book Guys"

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 04:45:00 ET

In the U.S, they have become as ubiquitous as hotdog street vendors, or a McDonald's at every highway exit – lawyer ads on the back of the phone book. In the age of Blackberries, phone books aren’t what they used to be, and those back-cover ads are unbelievably expensive. Yet, with the lawsuit now pending by the state of New York against Swiss bank UBS AG, those phone book lawyer guys are likely to get a whole lot busier...

U.S. Bond Market: The Look Of Fear... and Failure

Nico Isaac — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 03:45:00 ET

Anxiety is to a rising market what a flaming torch is to a hot-air balloon. And, as one of the most reliable measures of collective investor emotion, the record widening of the Junk-to-Treasury Yield Spread over the last year shows exactly why the finanical sector has gone "Pop!"

The Mortgage and Credit Crisis in the United States

Alan Hall — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 04:00:00 ET

Many people think the Fed has “saved” Fannie and Freddie, and the FDIC will “save” all depositors from the effects of the mortgage and credit crisis in the United States. Most people hope the crisis is just another temporary interruption in the “normal” bull market, and a return to the status quo is just around the corner.

The Biggest Financial Shoe Drops: Consumer Spending

Nico Isaac — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 04:45:00 ET

Given the amount of economic turmoil the U.S. faces today, the government will adopt a "Saving Private Ryan" policy regarding consumer spending: Keep Alive and Well at All Costs. Problem is, their rescue schemes have come too late...

Why 'Bye, Bye Bears' Means Just the Opposite

Editorial Staff — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 03:45:00 ET

In fact, a hopeful viewpoint that the market bottom is in displays exactly what bear markets bring out in investors – the hope that things will turn around just after the next market dip. This behavior is analogous to investors worrying at the beginning of a bear market, behavior that famously has been shortened into the adage, "bull markets climb a Wall of Worry."

European Stocks: Ahead Of The U.S., Or Behind It?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 03:00:00 ET

Many adopt the view that "the world catches a cold when America sneezes." We could, however, argue that the turbulence started in the UK and spread to the U.S.! See this chart for details.

Video: Chinese, Indian Stocks Divergences Tell A Story

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 01:45:00 ET

Sometimes the simplest technical analysis indicators can also prove to be the most useful ones, again and again. Watch this free video for details.

Euro vs. Dollar: When Mood Trumps Reason

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 05:45:00 ET

On July 29, the U.S. dollar gained strongly against the euro, sending the EURUSD exchange rate down some 200 pips, or two full cents. But if you looked at the day's news for explanations, it probably left you scratching your head...

Commodity Train To Opportunity: Soybean Meal

Nico Isaac — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 05:30:00 ET

It’s another typical day in Grand Commodity Station, where passengers step aboard two very different “trains” of opportunity: The "F" or fundamental line, and the "EW" or Elliott Wave line. Their destination: Soybean Meal. Find out which one makes it to their destination on time...

Boars Charge Along The Mountain

Euan Wilson — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 11:30:00 ET

When you reach the summit of Mt. Everest, for example, you'll want to take a few moments to enjoy the view. But soon enough, the oxygen-poor atmosphere and air temperature remind you that it's time to head back down. You can't climb any higher anyway. But why didn't that same reminder come 100 feet before you got to the mountaintop? Well, it probably did. You knew the peak was coming but were determined to finish the climb anyway. And believe it or not, markets work the same way.

Do Home Prices Look INFLATIONARY To You?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 05:30:00 ET

The only way that today’s home prices could possibly look “inflationary” is if you’re standing on your head. Which begs the question: If the most dependable hedge against inflation -- namely real estate -- is crashing like the approval ratings of the U.S. Congress, then where does main street get off saying “Inflation” is the bane of our economy’s existence?

Saint Albert the Great… and Merrill Lynch

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 01:15:00 ET

I have spoken in this column before that it is the insidious nature of deflation to undermine all asset classes and erode the capital base of an economy. As we unwind this credit cycle, cash is king, and commercial and investment banks are scrambling for capital – capital that has not been forthcoming while writedowns continue into Q4...

The Value Of Method: Corn

Euan Wilson — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 05:45:00 ET

Successful investing is never born of disarray, as any experienced trader will tell you. That's why an effective methodology for trading will include effective rules. So, when a commodity's price action does the unexpected, coherent rules to govern your analysis and actions can be the difference between a big loss and a small one.

VIDEO Lesson: How To Trade Forex Around News Releases

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:30:00 ET

Currency trading around the time of a major economic news release can be treacherous. Watch Jim Martens, Elliott Wave International’s Senior Currency Strategist, explain in this free 8-minute video how he used Elliott wave analysis to forecast the market action on June 25 – the day of the latest Federal Reserve interest rate announcement, a major economic news event.

U.S. Banks Refuse A Lending Hand

Nico Isaac — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 06:30:00 ET

In times of panic, a drowning man will often pull his rescuer down under water with him. So it goes, one of the most dangerous threats to a Lifeguard’s safety is the very person they are trying to save. Sometimes… the choice must be made to let go. For the U.S. financial sector, that time is now...

"I've Got A Stock Here That Could Really Excel"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 05:30:00 ET

Ralph Nelson Elliott, the discoverer of the Elliott Wave Principle was born on July 28, 1871. His remarkable discovery suggested that the financial markets are NOT efficient because they are a function of mass psychology – not reason. Individuals can be quite rational, but groups and crowds are not; they are emotional. In a nutshell, here's what Elliott discovered...

Russia: The Bear Growls

Alan Hall — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 03:45:00 ET

Today, the Russian RTSI Index took its biggest hit since January 21. It is now down almost 22% from its May 19 high. The surly social mood is steadily worsening, much as we predicted in our November 2007 Global Market Perspective Special Report, Sizing up a Superpower: A Socionomic Study of Russia. The report begins like this: “Our long-term Elliott wave count for the Russian stock market indicates that a major top is imminent.”

What's Next for the Dow Now that the Credit Bull Market Has Ended?

Editorial Staff — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 02:00:00 ET

Bob Prechter in his latest video release: "This is why people continue to say, 't’s a bull market.' But it was mostly due to a bull market in credit, which lowered the value of the dollar so dramatically that the Dow, in terms of dollars, could go to a new high."

Zeno of Elea

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 05:45:00 ET

I was surprised to see today that the U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had created the infinite from the finite. Last I heard regarding the Fannie and Freddie saga was for the Treasury to buy $2.5 billion of equity in the corporations, if needed. But today, that number became "undefined" or, if you will, infinite, as Congress hammered out details. More...

Forex Trading: Listen To The Market, Not The News

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 05:15:00 ET

Next time you see a headline like this one from July 24, "Euro Falls Against Dollar as German Business Confidence Slumps," think twice about whether the EURUSD moved because of a news report, or because it was going there anyway.

Crude Oil: Drilling For Opportunity

Nico Isaac — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 04:15:00 ET

July 11, 2008 was the unofficial D-Day for the Crude Oil market. “D” -- as in, DOWN. From that most recent peak, oil prices have plummeted more than $20, to a two-month low. The real shocker: On that date, a perfect fundamental bullish storm SHOULD HAVE sent crude prices to the moon...

Commodity Special: Sweet Opportunity In Sugar

Nico Isaac — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 05:30:00 ET

News Flash: crude oil AND sugar prices are about as synchronized as a dolphin and a duck-billed platypus. And, nothing makes this reality more clear than recent historical data comparing the two markets. Get the full story in today's Futures Focus...

(Video) European Stocks: Sentiment Is Screaming "Bottom!"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 05:30:00 ET

The Daily Sentiment Index is a contrarian indicator, and it can be a very useful tool when you're trying to time a market top or bottom. Watch Tom Denham, EWI's Senior European Equity Analyst, explain how he successfully used to forecast a recent rally in Germany's DAX, Europe's benchmark stock index.

Will GOLD Provide Shelter From The Financial Storm?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 04:15:00 ET

There’s just ONE little problem with the notion that gold moves counter to stocks and equities: It’s about as structurally sound as a sinkhole. And, in the Monday, July 21 Short Term Update, our analysts proved this point once and for all via the following myth-blasting close-ups...

"I Like Rocks"

Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:00:00 ET

It is late July, and around my house, that means it’s time to send the kids off to summer camp. My youngest boy, 9 years old, is going away for a week for the first time. And while we were packing, it suddenly occurred to me what a perfect metaphor that was for the U.S. Treasury’s plan to bail out the government-sponsored enterprises like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae...

Why Tough Marines Make Good Traders

Editorial Staff — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 05:45:00 ET

Bob Prechter: "It struck me one day that among a handful of consistently successful professional options and futures traders of my acquaintance, three of them are former Marines."

U.S. Banks Get Pummeled: Is Your Money Safe?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 04:45:00 ET

Lehman Brothers on the skids, Washington Mutual shares plunge to a 17-year low, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch join the red-flag finanical parade, AND -- the third largest bank failure in U.S. history takes place with the shut down of Indymac Bancorp. Before the U.S. banking sector went to hell in a handbasket, we saw the "warning signs" of decline...

Coffee: Opportunity Heats Up... For FREE

Nico Isaac — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 05:30:00 ET

On Thursday, July 17, Coffee prices were about as perky as a lump of dry coal. By day’s end, the market had plunged to its lowest level in over a month. After reading today's Futures Focus, you'll see why the big move down was no surprise to Elliott Wave International's premier near-term commodity service...

The Key to Unlocking Wheat's Reversal

Euan Wilson — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 10:00:00 ET

"A bullish key reversal occurs when prices make a new low below the previous price range, but close above the previous day's close." An important reversal just happened in Wheat. But just how important? EWI's Jeffrey Kennedy has the answers.

EURUSD (Forex): What Do You Do When Bearish News Turns "Bullish"?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:15:00 ET

A little after 5 AM Eastern (New York) time on Tuesday, July 15, the euro hit a new all-time high against the U.S. dollar: just under $1.6040. Markets move for a reason, goes the conventional wisdom, and it's doubly true when it comes to major moves like that. Interestingly, though, the EURUSD rallied to the new high after an economic report showed that "investor sentiment in Europe's largest economy, Germany, is at a record low." How come? Here's an Elliott wave take on it.

Crude Oil Crashes: Temporary Glitch - or - Lasting Trend Change?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 04:45:00 ET

In the end, fundamental analysis masks the true “sound” of a market’s underlying trend. In the case of oil: The most recent selloff in crude kicked off on July 11. One day earlier, on July 10, EWI's Energy Specialty Service acknowledged the downside potential in the market’s near-term future...

Commodities' Special: A Publication Is Born

Nico Isaac — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 04:30:00 ET

At last, the most highly anticipated birth around has finally taken place -- and no, I’m not talking about Brangelina’s twins (born: July 13). Elliott Wave International’s senior commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy has just delivered the brand-new July 2008 Monthly Futures Junctures -- a 12-page, hale and hearty publication that screams “Opportunity” into these and many more markets:

(NEW Prechter Video) What Were You Watching at Dow 14,000?

Gary Grimes — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 04:15:00 ET

A Special Video Issue of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist is online now. But, before you watch his updated insights, please watch and read a few selections from Prechter's Oct. 19, 2007 Elliott Wave Theorist and Bloomberg TV interview on that day.

Ba-dum -- Jaws Sinks Teeth into Housing on Both Sides of Atlantic

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 07:45:00 ET

Remember the movie Jaws? Now we've got a housing shark as big as Jaws, and when it attacks, it takes out economies, too. Where will it strike next?

The Financial Frankenstein is On The Loose

Robert Folsom — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 06:00:00 ET

The politicians and policy pooh-bahs who say Fan/Fred is "too big to fail" are actually acknowledging that The Monster has failed ALREADY. I could write a lot of words about how corrupt these two institutions have been over the past decade...Years and years of corrupt behavior produced layer and layer of congressional and regulatory "oversight." Yet today, The Monster mocks its creator more loudly than ever.

Could The U.S. Lose Its AAA Status?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 05:45:00 ET

On Friday, July 11, the pandemonium surrounding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s fall from financial grace prompted some panic-stricken citizens to ask the most dreaded of all questions: If the U.S. government is forced to bailout the flailing mortgage giants, will the leader of the free world lose its coveted AAA status?

EURUSD (Forex): A Rally You Could Have Seen Coming

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 07:45:00 ET

Few things seemed to spell trouble for the U.S. dollar early this week. But then on Wednesday, the dollar gave back all of Tuesday's gains. And on the morning of Thursday, July 10, the REAL turnaround came: The EURUSD, the exchange rate between the euro and the U.S. dollar, shot straight up, giving the euro the lead. What happened, you ask? Here's a Elliott wave explanation.

Orange Juice: Drink It In

Nico Isaac — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 05:30:00 ET

The biggest problem with fundamental analysis is its uncanny ability to point out trends that have long since been in place. Basically, it’s the equivalent of yelling “SURPRISE!” to the birthday man/woman of honor hours after he/she has already shown up to the surprise party. See what we mean with regard to the recent action in Orange Juice...

Fannie, Freddie Signal Bigger Problems for U.S. Economy

Peter Kendall — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 02:45:00 ET

The chaos in housing is just the leading edge of a “great transformation,” one that extends beyond real estate to the larger economy and many aspects of our everyday lives. See this story about Fannie Mae's recent troubles.

Small Caps: And Then There Was One

Nico Isaac — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 04:15:00 ET

In the U.S. economic version of Ten Little Indians, the affluent guests of the great Bull Market party of 2002-2007 have had their profits gruesomely bumped off, one by one. Which leaves one sector left standing: Small-capitalization stocks...

Stocks AND Oil: Crude Connection

Nico Isaac — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 04:15:00 ET

According to Main Street, rising crude oil prices are to U.S. equities what a long sharp nail is to a bicycle tire. Nothing sets the record straighter than the straight facts about oil prices verses the DJIA over the past three years...

Commodity Special: Fireworks Of Opportunity

Nico Isaac — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 05:15:00 ET

Celebrate the Fourth of July Holiday weekend early with the brand-new July 3 Daily Futures Junctures “Weekly Wrap-up” edition. In this explosive publication, editor Jeffery Kennedy sets off two dozen fireworks of opportunity in these (and more) key markets: Cocoa, O.J., Soybeans, Lumber, Pork Bellies.

What It's Like To Feel Less Rich – and Fatter

Susan C. Walker — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 05:00:00 ET

According to a dietitian who charges Wall Street executives $600-$800 a month for her services: "The number one concern that they have is the state of the financial market,” she said. “There definitely is a correlation between the stock market and weight gain.” Here's a better way to face the coming crash.

Credit Crisis: The “Naked” Truth

Nico Isaac — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 10:15:00 ET

In the words of renowned financier Warren Buffett: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” The tide of the U.S. credit industry is out. And everyday, more and more titans of finance are found standing in the shallow water without swimming trunks...

New Quarter, Same Trend; Secular Bear is Settling In

Gary Grimes — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 01:45:00 ET

Yes, the secular bear market is here. In fact, it’s been here for a while – and it’s going to stay for a while. These charts show you how much further there is to go down.

Asia Pacific Stocks: "Worst Half Since 1992"

Mark Galasiewski - Editor, Asian Financial Forecast — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 01:00:00 ET

Asia-Pacific stocks suffered their “worst first half [of the year] since 1992,” reported news headlines this week. Plus, Japanese and Chinese manufacturers reported significant declines in activity. You might think that the reported slump in manufacturing in the region’s two biggest economies might be a big reason for the poor performance of Asia-Pacific stocks in the first six months of this year. And, in a way, you’re right...but probably for the wrong reason.

U.S. Dollar Vs. Euro: Expect A Turbulent Thursday

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 06:30:00 ET

On Thursday, July 3, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%. That same day, economists expect the U.S. jobs number to show a 60,000 reduction. Question: How would the two events affect the U.S. dollar's standing against other currencies?

Corn And Wheat: Never A Dull Moment

Euan Wilson — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 05:00:00 ET

Expecting markets to always behave according to your trading models is futile, and experienced traders know that. Being prepared to "assess, adapt, relabel and move on!" is an excellent piece of advice, because markets will throw you a curve ball more often than you'd expect. Elliott Wave International talks about how.

Is This Any Way To Run A Stock Market?

Peter Kendall — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 05:00:00 ET

It's only after GM loses 70% of its market value that it's finally voted downgraded. Why does the market lag so far behind such results? Elliott Wave International has some ideas.

VIDEO: Asian Stocks -- From Boom To Bust?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 05:00:00 ET

You may have noticed a lot of news about mass public protests recently in Asia. Is it a coincidence that these protests broke out at the same time when Asian, Australian and Indian stock markets have taken big hits? Watch this FREE VIDEO for answers.

European Stocks: Five-Wave Moves Speak Volumes

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 03:45:00 ET

Summer months are rarely favorable for stock investors. ("Sell in May and go away," remember?) What complicates things now, however, is the ongoing liquidity crisis that has plagued the markets for almost a year now. And while some analysts out there keep saying "the worst is over," others are not so optimistic.

Soybeans: Showers Of Opportunity

Nico Isaac — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 05:30:00 ET

On June 26, Soybean prices rocketed to a new all-time high and took the entire grain complex by storm -- literally. According to the mainstream experts, severe thunderstorms in the already inundated Midwest region are lifting the market’s tide...

Dow Declines 358 points? Phooey -- Here's a REALLY Big Number

Robert Folsom — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 05:15:00 ET

The stock market will have to fall a lot further to get close to a number that's been a lot more painful for a lot more people: $24,300. That is the dollar figure you get when you quantify the eleven-plus percent decline in the median sales price of existing homes, since the peak in 2006 -- and that's using the data conservatively ($221,900 in 2006 vs. $197,600 through Q1 of 2008).

EURUSD: U.S. Interest Rates Unchanged. Now What?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 06:15:00 ET

Now that the Federal Reserve left U.S. interest rates unchanged and the U.S. dollar lost on the news, the question is: Was that all of the "pressure" the USD would see, or is there more to come? Here's a chart Elliott Wave International's Currency Specialty Service showed right before the Fed's announcement on June 25...

Cocoa's Critical Mass: Sweet Serenade or Swan Song?

Euan Wilson — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 05:30:00 ET

Cocoa's price has doubled over the past two years, with much of that gain coming just this year (from nearly 2000 per metric ton in January to 3147 today). The meteoric rise has people talking optimistically about prices (but only if you aren't a chocolate addict.) The path may seem clear for Cocoa, but Elliott Wave International's Senior Commodities Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy isn't convinced. Find out why.

Free Week Is Over, BUT... The Opportunities Have Just Begun

Nico Isaac — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 12:30:00 ET

On Wednesday, June 25, Elliott Wave International completed its annual Financial Forecast FreeWeek event.

Thousands of people from all over the world took advantage of instant, no-cost access to the uniquely rich insights and lessons that come with our subscriber-only services. Here are just some of those FreeWeek highlights: The Fed, the Dow, Gold, Oil, and the Credit Crisis...

Cotton Prices: Higher Still, Or Is Top In Place?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 05:00:00 ET

Scan commodity markets' news headlines right now, and chances are you won't find too many stories about cotton. And if you look at a chart of cotton futures, you will see that prices have been in a slow decline for a few months now. Coincidence? Hardly.

Will the Fed Increase Interest Rates? Does It Even Matter?

Euan Wilson — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 04:30:00 ET

People are anxious about Ben Bernanke & Co. right now, as the ritual fixation intensifies regarding this week's Fed meeting: "Will the Fed increase interest rates? Will it decrease them? Or will it do nothing at all?!" A better question might be: Should we even care?

Gold In A Freefall: Make-Or-Break Time

Nico Isaac — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 04:30:00 ET

On June 20, Elliott Wave International’s Metal's Specialty Service gave the GOLD “Bears the benefit of the doubt” and increased the odds for a major “breakdown.” Flash ahead to Monday June 23 and behold: Gold prices dropped like a lead balloon… tied to the end of a falling meteorite in a $30 per ounce slide to fresh, one-week lows.

Mortgage Fraud: The Mighty Have Fallen

Nico Isaac — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 04:00:00 ET

On Thursday, June 19, the U.S. Justice Department announced the results of phase ONE of “Operation Malicious Mortgage”-- a nationally coordinated crackdown against conspiracy, corruption, and fraud in the country’s leading mortgage companies...

Is Gold REALLY a Safe Haven in Recessions?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 05:45:00 ET

"Gold always goes up in recessions and depressions." Is it true? Should you own gold because you think the economy is tanking? Whenever we hear some claim like this, we always do the same thing: We look at the data. The results speak for themselves...

Soybeans: Train To Opportunity

Nico Isaac — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 04:15:00 ET

When it comes to riding the train of opportunity in SOYBEANS, there are two different railways for market players to take: 1.) The “F” line, or fundamental line. AND, the "E.W.I" line, conducted by Elliott Wave International's longtime commodity specialist Jeffrey Kennedy...

Forex: "When U.S. Stocks Decline, the Dollar Rallies?"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 05:30:00 ET

There is a persistent belief among many forex traders that trends in various global markets have a profound influence on the trends in currencies. But can you really forecast the trend in one market based on another with consistent results?

The Dow's Drop: Hit Bottom?

Nico Isaac — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 04:00:00 ET

This describes sentiment extremes in the world’s leading financial markets: When the crowd of market advisors, investors, traders, analysts, brokers, media outlets and all around “experts” share a bullish viewpoint, prices are set to come hurtling down...

Wanted: Ideas To Help Put Phi Day on the Calendar

Susan C. Walker — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 03:30:00 ET

The ratio that governs Elliott waves, architecture and spirals, to name a few, is so deeply satisfying aesthetically and intellectually that it almost deserves to have two dates to celebrate it. It takes a certain dedication to appreciate all the ramifications of phi (pronounced "fie").

Fibonacci, the Declaration of Independence & Equality

Editorial Staff — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 07:15:00 ET

Once you know how the Fibonacci sequence and the golden ratio, phi (0.618), tie into the ebb and flow of life, you tend to notice relationships based on them. The recent U.S. presidential primaries present a chance to reflect on how landmark events in the struggle for equality in U.S. history fall on Fibo dates.

Sugar Futures: Simple Move Makes for Big Changes

Morgan Lee — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 06:30:00 ET

The entire foundation of the Elliott Wave Principle is based on three simple rules: Wave 2 can never exceed the origin of Wave 1; Wave 3 can never be the shortest wave; Wave 4 may never end in the territory of Wave 1. Here's what happens if one of them is violated.

Jeffrey Kennedy Reveals His Secrets Of Trading Price Gaps

Euan Wilson — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 05:15:00 ET

Jeffrey Kennedy is one busy analyst. In addition to writing Monthly Futures Junctures, Daily Futures Junctures, Traders Classroom, and posting daily video updates, Jeffrey has somehow also found the time to put together a live webinar this June 24th. We were lucky enough to find Jeffrey's few spare minutes to sit down and ask what he'll be teaching us this time.

Oil Prices: Thorn In Stocks' Side?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 04:15:00 ET

Word on Wall Street is -- High oil prices are to rising equities what a blaring siren is to baking soufflé. See: Friday, June 13 news item regarding the 365 point cave in of the Dow Jones Industrial Average: “Oil prices were the primary culprit [for] the epic collapse.” (Forbes)

The problem is -- there’s no concrete evidence whatsoever to support such a claim. Never has been.

Massacre At The Top: Lehman's Not The First, Last, Or Even The Worst

Euan Wilson — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 10:45:00 ET

The heroes of the boom times have seen some troubled months. A full year after they first told us "the worst of the credit crisis is over," we're reading monthly (sometimes weekly) news about big-name CEOs (et al) getting the axe. If anything this trend is picking up steam, hardly a "worst is over" scenario. But who's really to blame?

Cotton Futures: Simple Does The Trick

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 11:00:00 ET

Just like most with technical analysis methods, you can spend days coming up with different ways of applying Elliott wave analysis in your trading – or you can try and keep it simple. Personally, I much prefer simple. Trading is complicated enough.

Happy Phi Day: Fibonacci Sequence Explained

Susan C. Walker — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 06:45:00 ET

With Phi Day, 6-18, quickly approaching this week, it's time to finish explaining how phi, the Fibonacci sequence and wave analysis are intertwined.

The Risks Of Running With The Herd

Euan Wilson — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 09:45:00 ET

Trading volume has never been higher. Ever. As for economic growth and household finances, a few figures can tell most of the story: Household liquidity stands at negative 20%; the personal savings rate is below one percent; and household debt as a percentage of personal income is approaching 120%. Total debt (economy-wide) is some 350% of GDP.

So why would a growing number of investors place ever-larger bets on an increasingly under-performing economy?

Stocks: How Do You Win In Choppy Markets?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 05:00:00 ET

Trading is only easy when the market is going up. That's not been the case lately; I remember watching CNBC during the Internet craze of the late 1990s, when they would sometimes go to a college campus and interview "day trading whizzes" that were "making a killing" trading tech stocks. I sometimes wonder what happened to them. Did they make their millions and retire young? Or did they go bust – as about 90% of market speculators do – when the NASDAQ crashed in 2000? Which brings to mind another memory...

Futures Junctures: The Gift Of Opportunity

Nico Isaac — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 03:45:00 ET

This Father’s Day weekend, give dear ole dad a gift he can actually use, unlike -- say -- a singing necktie. My suggestion: Elliott Wave International’s Senior Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy’s just published June 2008 Monthly Futures Junctures. Here’s a sneak peak at what’s in store...

VIDEO: How To Identify a Good Opportunity In Stocks

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 06:15:00 ET

One of the most frequent questions readers ask us is: "Does the Elliott Wave Principle apply to individual stocks?" The answer to this question is always – yes, but only if a clear, unmistakable wave pattern unfolds before your eyes. For a good example of this approach, watch this free video.

Get Ready To Celebrate Phi Day With Us on 6.18

Susan C. Walker — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 06:00:00 ET

This year, once again, we're celebrating Phi Day on its numerical representation, which is .618 or June 18, and we ask you to join with us to start spreading the word.

Trading: How To Identify Support and Resistance Levels

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 04:45:00 ET

Once again, I sit down to speak with Jeffrey Kennedy, Elliott Wave International's Senior Commodities Analyst and editor of Daily Futures Junctures, a service that brings you daily opportunities in commodity markets. Today, we talk about ways to identify support and resistance levels in market charts.

China Syndrome: Stock Market Meltdown

Nico Isaac — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 04:30:00 ET

The what: On Tuesday, June 10, China’s Shanghai Composite Index suffered a near-meltdown, plunging 8% to its lowest level in over a year. Saying that China’s stocks are falling on “policy tightening” is like saying the Big Bang gave you a headache. Meaning: The effort on the part of China’s government to stem their nation’s speculative tide is way older than the market’s actual downtrend.

Euro Vs. U.S. Dollar (Forex): When News Doesn't Move Markets, What Does?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 03:15:00 ET

Forex markets have been volatile lately, and you've probably heard mainstream forex analysts citing various economic and news reports, trying to explaining why. There is one major problem with the premise that markets are moved by the news, though. If you continue this logic, on days when there are no major economic reports, you would expect markets to go sideways. And yet even on those days, the market moves, too. How come?

Death Of The S.U.V. -- Why Now?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 04:30:00 ET

After decades of speeding down a trouble-free road of success, the Sports Utility Vehicle (S.U.V.) hit a major oil slick in 2008, spinning out of control and plunging hood-long over the cliff's edge. Fuel prices are not killing the S.U.V. A reversal in mass social mood is, as described in detail by the July 2006 Elliott Wave Theorist’sspecial, two-part study titled “Social Mood and Automobile Stylings.”

Sugar Futures: Sour Prices, Sweet Opportunity

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 10:45:00 ET

How many times have you heard the widely received notion that SUGAR prices move in tandem with Crude Oil? Here’s the problem: Since hitting a multi-year high on March 14, sugar prices have collapsed -- while oil has continued to make headlines.

Credit Crisis: Wasn't "Over" Then, Ain't "Over" Now

Robert Folsom — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 05:45:00 ET

Let's broaden the time horizon from the past two days to nearly a year ago -- specifically July 13, 2007, when a Bloomberg News story declared, "Lehman, Bank of America and Barclays Say the [Credit] Rout is Over." Yes, dear reader, not one but THREE of the world's largest investment banks told the world that the credit crisis was "over," when in fact it had barely begun.

Fear Factor: Off The Charts

Nico Isaac — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 03:45:00 ET

When it comes to the world of finance, FEAR is to a rising market what a hot flame is to an air-filled balloon. The challenge comes in knowing beforehand when things are about to go “POP!” In our experience, one of the most reliable measures of collective investor emotion is the Junk-to-Treasury Yield Spread, or difference between low grade and high-grade debt.

Flailing For Answers About Gold: Does Anyone Know Anything?

Euan Wilson — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 02:00:00 ET

Everyone's scratching their heads lately at the news. In a first-season episode of The Sopranos that aired almost nine years ago, Tony Soprano's pronouncement that "Nobody knows anything!" still resonates. Anyone listening to the media and expert analyses has heard it all -- Gold's been a hot topic for months now. But who's got it right really?

(Video) China, Japan, India: What Are Elliott Wave Patterns Saying?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 05:15:00 ET

If you believe in the random walk theory, which states that financial markets are random and unpredictable, you need to watch this free 7-minute video.

Soybeans: Green Light To Opportunity

Nico Isaac — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 05:15:00 ET

In the end, it comes down to this: Where the fundamental camp sees Soybean prices being held prisoner, Elliott Wave International’s commodity expert Jeffrey Kennedy sees prices set free for opportunity. Where the one sees a hold-up, Jeffrey sees the steady progress of a contracting triangle toward its resolution...

U.S. Stocks: Embracing "Change"

Nico Isaac — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 04:45:00 ET

On the morning of June 4, one phrase epitomized the frenzied climate on Wall Street: “Change is in the Air” -- As in, the 180-degree turnaround in the leading U.S. stock index from UP to D-O-W n. Since soaring to a four-month high on May 19, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been as happy as a clam… nearing a pot of boiling hot water...

Futures: Elliott Wave's Versatility in Action

Morgan Lee — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 05:30:00 ET

Anyone who trades with the Wave Principle will tell you there are numerous advantages to using Elliott wave-based trading strategies versus ones based on other methods. Perhaps the most intriguing factor of the Wave Principle is its adaptability to the real-world situations. Here's one fresh example...

Oil Prices: Everybody Panic!...?

Euan Wilson — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 05:00:00 ET

Everyone's complaining about it because everyone is a consumer: Oil prices seem to show up in everything we buy. From the gas pump to electricity to food to the cost of Saran Wrap, oil rules our wallets. Question is: Do oil prices also rule the financial markets? Here's one answer...

Wheat Futures: New, Current Opportunity

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 10:45:00 ET

The price of wheat, a red-hot commodity just three months ago, has been in a persistent decline. In fact, prices are down some 40% off the all-time high that occurred in mid-March – a big move. And now, a new opportunity in wheat could be staring us right in the face.

U.S. Dollar: Comeback Time?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 05:00:00 ET

Since the start of 2008, the U.S. dollar has been about as welcome on Wall Street as Sharon Stone in China after her comment that bad “karma” was behind the devastating Sichuan Province earthquake.In late May, however, the dollar-bashing bandwagon came to a screeching halt. And, one by one, some of the most loyal passengers stepped off to say the long-awaited “Dollar Comeback” has arrived.

New Transparency To Follow China's Earthquake?

Susan C. Walker — Fri, 30 May 2008 06:30:00 ET

It has always been difficult to know China from the outside, but with the Olympics in Beijing this summer and the nation's move toward a stronger economy with a bow toward capitalism, China has excited the interest of many people – some of whom are interested in trading its stock market.

European Stocks: Watch The "Market's Rhythm"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 30 May 2008 04:00:00 ET

"A Chartered Financial Analyst was my houseguest several years ago, and I brought him to work with me at Elliott Wave International one day. He was an investment banker in New York and must never have had any association with technical traders before me, because he laughed when I introduced him to the Wave Principle. I also thought the whole area of technical analysis was silly – when I first encountered it. But now, I have seen patterns play out as expected so many times that I take their development very seriously – and you should, too."

Credit Crisis: Is The Worst Really Over?

Nico Isaac — Fri, 30 May 2008 03:45:00 ET

The bleak, nail-biting drama known as “The Tempest… In the U.S. Credit Market” has played out as one terrible scene after another: The once formidable Titans of Finance fell from an over-leveraged grace, triggering $300 billion in write downs, massive layoffs, losses, government bailouts, record-high foreclosures, and pretty much every economic setback around.

Cocoa: A New Outlook

Nico Isaac — Thu, 29 May 2008 06:00:00 ET

The number one flaw of fundamental analysis is its lack of account for human error. Think about it: If financial markets are well-oiled machines that react mechanically to outside events, it stands to reason -- If you master the system, there’s no way to fail. If that were true, then how do you explain the recent action in COCOA...

Gold Prices: How Low Will They Go?

Nico Isaac — Thu, 29 May 2008 05:45:00 ET

Over the last few months, a “perfect (fundamental) storm” for rising gold prices has raged across every financial thoroughfare from Wall Street to Sesame Street. Yet -- the yellow metal has been about as airborne as Big Bird, the giant yellow condor that can’t fly...

10 More Years of Higher Food Prices, or Deflation Instead?

Susan C. Walker — Thu, 29 May 2008 05:30:00 ET

A report by two international organizations says that food prices should remain high for the next 10 years. But in EWI's contrarian view, the louder the hue and cry about food and energy prices, the more reason to believe that the trend will end and become deflationary instead.

Video (Forex): "Prepare for a Surprising U.S. Dollar Decline"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 27 May 2008 05:30:00 ET

Watch this free video clip EWI's own Jim Martens recorded for his Currency Specialty Service subscribers on May 9. If you remember, at that time, the USD had gained strongly, and rumors were flying that it would gain even more. But watch this video and see how simple Elliott wave techniques can help you bet against the crowd's opinion…

Holy Grail of Best Commodity Opportunities

Nico Isaac — Tue, 27 May 2008 03:45:00 ET

On May 23, the long-awaited follow-up to one of the most exciting adventure stories of all time was finally released: One man…and one mission to unearth the hidden treasures of faraway lands.

And no, I’m NOT talking about “Indiana Jones.” The man is Elliott Wave International's Senior Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy & his quest is to uncover the golden opportunities buried among the world’s leading markets...

Commodities: Spotlight on a Special Opportunity

Nico Isaac — Fri, 23 May 2008 01:45:00 ET

There have been a lot of rumors in the financial media that Feeder Cattle prices will continue falling as the price of corn, the main ingredient in cattle feed, continues to rise. While there is some validity to this argument, from an Elliott wave point of view, Corn and Feeders have different wave patterns. In fact, Elliott Wave International’s Senior Commodity Analyst says he feels quite optimistic about BOTH corn AND cattle prices...

Live Cattle: Big Moo-ve Ahead?

Nico Isaac — Thu, 22 May 2008 05:15:00 ET

When it comes to mainstream analysis of commodity markets, the fundamental analysis experts often dish out more choices for a market’s future direction than a cruise ship buffet table. And the more you take in, the worst you feel. Case in point: These recent news items on the subject of Live Cattle...

U.S. House Prices Down 14%, But 12 Nations Face Worse

Susan C. Walker — Thu, 22 May 2008 02:00:00 ET

Although we've become accustomed to negative news about U.S. home prices and foreclosures, perhaps it's worth looking outside of the U.S. of A. to see how other countries are doing. Surprise – home prices in 12 nations have gapped up much more than in the United States.

VIDEO: Oil Above $133. What Is Driving Up Prices?

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 21 May 2008 05:45:00 ET

On Wednesday (May 21), crude oil futures closed above $133 for the first time in history. The spike was blamed on an "unexpected drop in U.S. stockpiles," among other factors. That's a perfectly good explanation – after the fact. But what if we told you that one analyst foresaw this week's rally in crude several days before it began – and without relying on the supply/demand fundamentals? Watch this free video clip.

The Dow: Four Major "Developments"

Nico Isaac — Wed, 21 May 2008 04:15:00 ET

The only time the phrase “Reply hazy, try again later” is an acceptable response to a question is when you shake a Magic Eight Ball. Now consider these recent news headlines from the mainstream financial media: “Fed Signal Unclear,” “Economic Outlook Uncertain,” “Repercussions Unknown,” and “Stock Markets Remain Mixed.”

Hedge Funds Headed for Same Fate as Day Traders – But Bigger

Susan C. Walker — Wed, 21 May 2008 11:00:00 ET

While a failure in the swaps market could crush many hedge funds that deal in them, Elliott Wave International's Bob Prechter sees an even more basic reason why they will ultimately come to a bad end – that's because they're not really hedgers, they are merely buyers

Soybeans: A Reason for Excitement

Morgan Lee — Tue, 20 May 2008 06:00:00 ET

There hasn’t been much reason to get excited about soybeans futures lately. The commodity has been defined by short, choppy up-and-down moves for some time, showing no real signs of a trend. That may change very soon.

Germany's DAX: High, Low, Where To Go Next?

Nico Isaac — Tue, 20 May 2008 05:30:00 ET

It’s one thing to hear the famous expression “Buy low; sell high.” It’s quite another to know when an actual low –(or –high) is staring you in the face. Take, for example, the widespread enthusiasm surrounding Germany’s DAX Index in the summer of 2007...

Forex: How To Stop Chasing Your Own Tail

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 20 May 2008 05:15:00 ET

Do you ever get the feeling that the conventional market analysts quoted in the financial press are, all to often, a step behind the curve? They try hard to explain how news stories or actions in one market are responsible for reactions in another, and they are very good at it. For example, when the U.S. dollar gained against the euro on Monday (May 19), they said...

Short Shorts and Stocks: What's the Connection?

Gary Grimes — Tue, 20 May 2008 05:15:00 ET

Perusing the mainstream media headlines yesterday, I came upon a story that caught my attention. The headline: Designer says fashion will "prevail" in the face of economic downturn. No argument here, but my question is ...

Munis 'Back to Normal' or Looking at a Bear Market?

Susan C. Walker — Mon, 19 May 2008 05:45:00 ET

Back to normal, status quo … Well, that may sound good to those who deal in municipal bonds, particularly since it's a $2.6 trillion market. But our analysts at Elliott Wave International see the future for the muni bond market as anything but normal.

Credit Crisis: Nearing The End?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 19 May 2008 05:45:00 ET

Credit Crunch: Millions of Dumb Decisions, In Their Own Voice

Robert Folsom — Mon, 19 May 2008 05:30:00 ET

Over the weekend I listened to a podcast from "This American Life" about the housing crisis. It was an exceptionally well-done story, which combined simple explanations of the crisis with personal interviews of people who helped create it. And I do mean "create" -- everyone from the manager of a massive hedge fund specializing inCDOs (collateralized debt obligations), to a guy with no full-time job and bad credit who managed to get a $540,000 home equity loan...

Commodities: Impulse, Correction, And What It All Means

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 19 May 2008 04:15:00 ET

Elliott wave patterns in market charts, as you may know, fall into two main groups: impulses and corrections. You may say – interesting, but how do I actually use this knowledge? Here's how...

Patterns, the Presidency, and Elliott Waves

Robert Folsom — Fri, 16 May 2008 05:30:00 ET

Most academics and economists have long resisted any suggestion that prices in financial markets are patterned. I find their attitude an endless source of curiosity. If collective behavior is patterned, and if financial markets are a collective activity, then it's common sense to believe that a price chart may be more than a bunch of squiggly lines....

VIDEO: 3 Ways To Set Price Targets

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Fri, 16 May 2008 05:15:00 ET

In the one you're about to see, Tom Denham, EWI's Senior European Equity Analyst demonstrates his technique of setting price targets for a potential trade using three factors: Common length proportions between market rallies, the theory of "round numbers," and Fibonacci projections.

3 Reasons Not To Speculate in Stocks …

Editorial Staff — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:15:00 ET

Most people have begun to accept that the U.S. economy is in recession whether or not the National Bureau of Economic Research has labeled it a recession yet. If you, too, think that the economy is headed for hard times, the next question is, how do you prepare for it?

Soybean Meal: The Stage Is Set

Nico Isaac — Thu, 15 May 2008 05:45:00 ET

It’s just my opinion, but the popular “take” on why futures markets do what they do sounds less and less like the wise and steady Owl AND more like the chicken with its head cut off. Harsh? Well, you be the judge. The following May 14 news stories on Soybean Meal say more than enough...

No Recession? How About, "No Supporting Evidence"...?

Robert Folsom — Thu, 15 May 2008 05:15:00 ET

Over the past week or so, some prominent columnists and news analysts have suggested that it's premature to declare that the U.S. economy is in recession. I found these stories somewhat remarkable -- not because they appear to be contrarian, but instead because "news" can still appear in print based upon a premise that has absolutely no supporting evidence....

China: The Road Ahead

Nico Isaac — Thu, 15 May 2008 11:45:00 ET

In the last year, China’s image has taken more hits than Rocky Balboa’s punching bag as a tsunamic “wave of strife” crashes onto the People’s Republic shores. Today, I sit down with EWI’s Asian stock markets specialist Mark Galasiewski to discuss the “psychological” reasons for the reversal in China’s fortune.

VIDEO: Learn To Set Price Targets With Fibonacci

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Wed, 14 May 2008 06:30:00 ET

In the video you are about to see, Elliott Wave International's Senior Currency Strategist uses a chart of the euro-Swiss frank currency pair. In mid-March, the EUR/CHF stopped falling and staged a powerful rally. This video was recorded on March 6, several days before the rally began. So, not only is this a great lesson on using Fibonacci ratios to set price targets – it's a great forecast, too. Just watch.

Commodities: How High-Income Welfare Creates Low-Income Welfare

Robert Folsom — Wed, 14 May 2008 05:00:00 ET

Politicians have lots of devious tools at their disposal, and they're not afraid to use them. One of the most devious of these tools also happens to be the most popular: namely, to mix indefensible spending together with spending that only Scrooge, LordVoldemort, or Hitler would oppose. Take, for example, the $300 billion, five-year "farm bill" now before Congress. It will reportedly pass with a veto-proof majority. Here is some of what the bill allows...

Precious Metals: Trying to Board A Moving Train

Robert Folsom — Tue, 13 May 2008 05:15:00 ET

Enthusiasm is not the only contagious emotion, and an emotional surplus nearly always remains long after the price trend has turned -- not only do people end up trying to board a moving train, many don't even grasp that it's moving in the wrong direction....

What's in Store for the Mega-Rich in a Bear Market?

Susan C. Walker — Tue, 13 May 2008 05:15:00 ET

The headline in the Wall Street Journal's Wealth Report blog caught my eye: "10 Things the Wealthy Should Leave Their Kids — Besides Money" (May 12, 2008). Which brought to mind immediately a section in our most recent Elliott Wave Financial Forecast about the future for the mega-rich in a bear market.

Cocoa Futures: Keep It Simple

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Tue, 13 May 2008 04:45:00 ET

After a period of sinking prices, cocoa dropped again today (May 13), hitting a one-week low. The important question is: how far does this current slide have to go, and when might it turn back up? The answer is – it all depends on whom you ask.

Gold Prices: Due North?

Nico Isaac — Mon, 12 May 2008 05:45:00 ET

According to the in-crowd, three main coordinates will always point gold prices due NORTH: Economic uncertainty/political unrest, a falling equity market, and a rising oil market. Well, we've got ALL three in spades, YET -- gold prices have plunged 17% from their March 17 peak...

U.S. Dollar (Forex): Speculation Vs. Facts

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Mon, 12 May 2008 05:30:00 ET

The newswires trumpeted the dollar's slight gain in the post-weekend trading as a sign that the greenback's decline is over, citing numerous "speculations" and "rumors." Too bad the dollar reversed on Monday morning and slid significantly against major currencies, losing almost 200 pips to the euro. EWI's Currency Specialty Service, however, has held a bearish view on the USD since Friday. Why? In short, because there is speculation – and then there are facts...

General Electric (GE): Bellwether for a Global Bear Market

Susan C. Walker — Mon, 12 May 2008 03:30:00 ET

This announcement of GE's successful global infrastructure deal is far happier than its announcement in mid-April that it had badly missed its expected earnings, resulting in the stock losing $47 billion in one day on April 11, 2008. But while many investors and many in the financial press see global infrastructure investment as GE's savior, our analysts here at Elliott Wave International look at GE's price chart and see a different story.

1.618 Reasons To Learn About Fibonacci Trading

Editorial Staff — Fri, 09 May 2008 05:00:00 ET

When something sounds esoteric – like Fibonacci trading – the brain sometimes goes into avoidance mode. "Don't make me think that through," it says, "just let me get it quickly." Here's a quick lesson from Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave International.

Housing Market: Fallen Horse

Nico Isaac — Fri, 09 May 2008 04:45:00 ET

In many ways, the May 3 Kentucky Derby tragedy is not unlike the fateful events unfolding in the U.S. real estate market, otherwise known as the mournal Housing Race... The downfall of the housing bull, however, was not a "freak accident," unforeseeable until the damage was already done...

How To Invest Long Term Without Losing Your Fannie … Mae

Peter Kendall — Fri, 09 May 2008 01:30:00 ET

Reaping the windfall benefits of a sharp decline in Fannie Mae’s shares took patience, tenacity and some follow-up analysis. Here's how our EWI analysts prepared subscribers for Fannie's downfall, starting back in 2002.

The Power of Myth and Your Portfolio

Robert Folsom — Fri, 09 May 2008 01:15:00 ET

When it comes to mutual funds, the truth is this: An ever-larger number of people give their money to an ever-smaller number of managers, who in turn oversee the taking of an ever-bigger slice of the pie.

From "Corpse Art" To "Skullmania"

Vadim Pokhlebkin — Thu, 08 May 2008 11:45:00 ET

We call a urinal "the most influential work of art of the 20th century" and flock to see dead bodies set as sculptures. Is there a connection between the recent popularity of “all things melancholic” and the state of our collective spirits? We at Elliott Wave International think there is. Watch this free documentary for the answers.

Sugar: On Track To Opportunity

Nico Isaac — Thu, 08 May 2008 05:00:00 ET

In the real world, the supposed well-oiled "machines" of financial markets respond less like KITT, the obedient car of TV’s “Knight Rider” and more like the demon-possessed trucks of Stephen King’s horror flick “Maximum Overdrive.” Case in point, the mid-April news reports claiming SUGAR's uptrend was being driven by High Crude Oil...

Why Oil Prices Change – Part III

Robert Folsom — Thu, 08 May 2008 04:45:00 ET

For the most part, my research time proved an exercise in myth busting -- which is to say, I realized that I needed to explain what does not change oil prices before I could explain what does....