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Fast Money in a Thin Market: Stocks Record First 3-Day Losing Streak of 2013
Consider the strong evidence that the market stands at a major juncture.

By Bob Stokes
6/14/2013 12:45:00 PM

2013 started with a stock market bang. Many investors who had opted for the sidelines since the March 2009 low started pouring their money into stock mutual funds. Optimism permeated Wall Street. But it was fear that dominated on June 12. The CBOE Volatility Index closed at its second-highest level of the year. Are the stock indexes on the verge of a trend change?

Filed Under: CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, market forecasts, mutual funds, Robert Prechter, VIX, volatility

Category: Stocks


Did a Widening Trade Deficit Derail 20 Winning Tuesdays?
One remarkable chart reveals if a rising trade deficit is "bearish"

By Nico Isaac
6/5/2013 4:30:00 PM

June 4, 2013. That day the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped its record streak of 20-winning Tuesdays, ending 75 points lower. And, according to the usual experts, one of the biggest "causes" of the decline was the 8:30 a.m. Commerce Department report revealing a 8.5% increase in April's US trade deficit...

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, deficit, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter

Category: U.S. Economy


Pop Goes the Bull Market: Are Coca-Cola and the Dow Going Flat?
From the May 2013 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast

By Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall
5/30/2013 5:30:00 PM

(From the May 2013 Financial Forecast) In December 1999, [The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast] made the case for a long-term peak in Coca-Cola stock based on its historic role as a bull-market beverage: “Things really do go better with Coke. Unless, of course, the thing is a bear market. At such times, things don’t go so well, not even for Coke.”

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), financial forecast, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


An Intraday in the Life of the Dow
Charts show how the Fed did not cause the DJIA's intraday drop

By Nico Isaac
5/22/2013 6:30:00 PM

About the time the stock market opened on Wednesday, remarks from two Fed officials denied that the central bank was "ready to consider tapering its bond buying"... And the Dow Industrials rallied 100-plus points in the first hour of trading. At 10:24 am, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared before a Congressional Joint Economic Committee and said: "Premature tightening would carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery."

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, stock indexes, Traders, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


Have you seen the latest Mood Riffs?
Read a socionomic take on the news

By Clifford Smith
4/30/2013 5:00:00 PM

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), social mood, socionomics

Category: Socionomics


Even Major News Triggers Only Short-Term Market Reactions
Historical events serve as examples.

By Bob Stokes
4/25/2013 5:00:00 PM

Shortly after 1 p.m. on April 23, a phony posting on Twitter claimed that explosions occurred at the White House and that the President was injured. The Dow Industrials tumbled over 100 points in just a couple of minutes. When traders learned the tweet was false, the Dow just as quickly resumed the trend it had been on beforehand. But whether a given news item is phony or factual is irrelevant. Look at two charts to see how the market reacted to a major historical event.

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, history, investment decisions, long-term trend, Robert Prechter

Category: Stocks


U.S. Markets and the Transition from Greed to Fear
Prechter: "When this piper gets paid, it's going to be an awesome sight."

By Bob Stokes
4/16/2013 5:45:00 PM

Measuring market greed versus market fear can provide a useful tool for gauging investor sentiment. EWI looks at investor sentiment as well as the market's momentum and price pattern. Altogether, they provide a valuable perspective on whether greed or fear will prevail in the future. Robert Prechter offers his perspective on the market's current juncture.

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, history, market crash, Robert Prechter, sentiment, VIX, Wall Street

Category: Stocks


A Perspective on a Forecast for Dow 18,000
Sound financial decisions are based on sound analysis.

By Bob Stokes
4/10/2013 5:00:00 PM

People who only consider the short-term – or hold an overly narrow point of view – can benefit from the advice to "put things into perspective." Because without perspective, we're certain to repeat the same short-sighted decisions, one after another. In his latest Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter puts the stock market's price pattern into proper perspective. The issue starts with the title, "More Amazing Charts."

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, home sales, investment decisions, Robert Prechter, sentiment

Category: Stocks


NASDAQ's 15% Drop in 2000: a Snapshot of Market History or a Picture of its Future?
Is increased stock market volatility just ahead?

By Bob Stokes
3/27/2013 5:15:00 PM

From March to April 2000, the NASDAQ declined 15%. Many investors bought the dip in the months after the peak, but it was only the beginning of a larger decline. In the 2000-2002 price plunge, the technology-heavy index lost a whopping 78%. Do investors today have a similar mindset to the prevailing market psychology of 2000? Recent sentiment measures say "Yes."

 

Filed Under: Bear market, buy and hold, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, history, investor psychology, market crash, Nasdaq Composite, Robert Prechter, sentiment, VIX, volatility

Category: Stocks


Bear Markets Are Inevitable
Are you prepared for the next one?

By Bob Stokes
3/18/2013 4:45:00 PM

Bear markets are a conspicuous part of American history. Yet several sentiment measures indicate that most of today's market participants are ignoring this obvious fact. And unless human behavior changes and history stops repeating itself, another bear market is inevitable. It's only a question of when. The Elliott wave model explores that question, and also looks at the extent of market price trends.

Filed Under: Bear market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), economic depression, history, investment strategy, long-term trend, market forecasts, S&P 500

Category: Stocks


Market Insight: Dow's Winning Streak Sheds Light on Future of Rally

By Editorial Staff
3/14/2013 4:45:00 PM

The Dow closed up again on Thursday, March 14, the 10th consecutive day the senior index closed higher, the 8th consecutive new all-time high. According to EWI Short Term Update Editor Steve Hochberg in Wednesday's Update, “Streaks tend not to be randomly distributed but instead congregate at market lows, in the midpoint of extended rallies and ...

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

Category: Stocks


It's True Love for the Dow Industrials
Will stock market bulls suffer a broken heart?

By Bob Stokes
3/14/2013 4:30:00 PM

Most stock market investors are head over heels for the Dow. Even though the market has already trended higher for four years, market participants believe prices have more room to climb. Some investors are prepared to embrace equities even if prices decline. Extreme market sentiment (bullish or bearish) usually indicates that the crowd has already acted. Yet, sentiment is just one of the three pillars of market forecasting.

Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, investor psychology, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, sentiment, short selling

Category: Stocks


As Dow Climbs to Record High, Money Managers Underperform
Most investors buy stocks "for the long run" at just the wrong time

By Bob Stokes
3/7/2013 5:30:00 PM

As the Dow Industrials climb to an all-time high, most professional money managers lag the broad indexes. This is an occurrence that's common to past bull runs. Also, private investors almost always underperform versus the main indexes. Learn what those who work in the back offices of brokerages know.

Filed Under: CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, history, market forecasts, mutual funds, Robert Prechter

Category: Stocks


Market Insight: EURUSD Is Acting Weak
This major forex market is refusing to "join the pack"

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/5/2013 2:45:00 PM

As the DJIA rose to a new all-time high on March 5, EURUD fell sharply -- and spent all morning lingering at the lower levels from the day before. We saw something similar last week. But perhaps even more important is this...

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), euro, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Currencies


Investors Look to Experts for Stock Market Signals
Discover the patterns of crowd behavior

By Bob Stokes
3/4/2013 10:30:00 AM

Stock market prices reflect the collective psychology of the people who buy and sell equity shares. Decades of observation show that this psychology unfolds in recognizable patterns. The Wave Principle helps to identify key junctures in those patterns. A special double-issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist elaborates on one such juncture – with an emphasis on "elaborates."

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Principle, Fibonacci, herding, , long-term trend, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, sentiment, technical indicators

Category: Stocks


EURUSD: DJIA Up, Euro Down... Hmm
What should you make of the fact that EURUSD failed to "respond" to the rally in U.S. stocks?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/26/2013 6:30:00 PM

You may have noticed that on most days, the euro-dollar exchange rate and U.S. stocks have been moving in unison. When EURUSD goes up (stronger euro, weaker U.S. dollar), the DJIA is usually up, too. Take a look at this chart comparing EURUSD and the DJIA over the past year...

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, forex, forex trading, S&P 500, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Currencies


Market Insight: "The Dow Has Come Unstrung"
Stocks fall, "fear index" jumps

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/25/2013 5:15:00 PM

On Monday, Feb. 25, the closely watched "fear index" VIX jumped 35% -- the largest jump so far this year. This year-to-date chart puts the move in perspective...

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, VIX

Category: Stocks


A Study of Financial Bubbles Reveals a Remarkable Pattern
Financial manias end below where they started

By Bob Stokes
2/11/2013 4:15:00 PM

The tricky thing about financial bubbles is, even the smartest investors don't know they're in one until it bursts. Isaac Newton was a rare genius as a scientist, yet he decided to invest in the South Sea Bubble (1719-1722) just before it burst. Bob Prechter studied major financial bubbles going back to the year 1600 and made a remarkable observation which may be relevant today.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bob Prechter, conquer the crash, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, history, market crash, sentiment, South Sea Bubble

Category: Stocks


Formidable Resistance Remains for the NASDAQ
Why a NASDAQ price barrier may not be broken

By Bob Stokes
2/8/2013 5:15:00 PM

The NASDAQ Composite has barely advanced in the past 10 months, despite an extremely bullish sentiment. The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast called attention to the upper trendline of a parallel price channel in April 2012, and that upper trendline has remained a barrier to a NASDAQ Composite advance. The just-published February Financial Forecast provides insights into why the market now faces a historic juncture.

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Fibonacci, financial forecast, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, sentiment, technical indicators, trendlines

Category: Stocks


Margin Debt is Fueling the Market Rally
Investors ignore the sign posts at their peril

By Bob Stokes
2/1/2013 3:00:00 PM

Margin debt is fueling the market rally, and the investors behind the wheel have no fear. Bob Prechter warns about this hazardous combination, and issues a bold stock market forecast for the next 3-1/2 years. Be aware that investors may face the most significant market juncture of the past three centuries.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CNBC, debt, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, investor psychology, market forecasts, sentiment, VIX

Category: Stocks


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© 2013 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.