Mortgage Rates Headed Higher
Hard as they may try, the government doesn’t control the market.

The Fed can “claim victory” on its bond-purchase program,  the mortgage-backed security (MBS) program that buys debt issued by government-sponsored enterprises (GSE), such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. However, they had better hurry up and claim victory, because as we will show, mortgage rates now appear to be headed higher.

RATE-ing In Vain: The Fed Is Not In Control
Bob Prechter reveals that interest rates do not drive stock prices

Forex Trading Vs. Stock Trading: What Are The Advantages? Part II
24-hour trading, liquidity and limited number of markets is what draws EWI's Jim Martens to currencies

Surviving Deflation: First, Understand It
Deflation is more than just "falling prices." Robert Prechter explains why.

The most common misunderstanding about inflation and deflation -- echoed even by some renowned economists -- is the idea that inflation is rising prices and deflation is falling prices. General price changes, though, are simply effects. Effects of what? Keep reading to find out.

US Dollar Rally: On The Wings Of A Hawk?
Fed easy-money policy wasn't the reason for the dollar's weakness, nor is the Fed's latest move a reason for its strength.

Same Day. Same Event. Same Market. Different Story!
"There is no group more subjective than conventional analysts" -- Robert Prechter

Elliott wave analysts sometimes hear the criticism that patterns in market charts can be "open to interpretation." Does that happen? Absolutely. (Although, there are tools an Elliottician can always employ to firm up the wave count.) But here's the real question: What's the alternative? Here's Bob Prechter's take on it.

Where Few Dare To Tread
When the Fed can no longer keep interest rates down, the U.S. will have to face its demons.

What options do we have regarding U.S. deficits? President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City gave three of them in his February 16 speech: doing nothing, inflating our way out of at least some of the debt... but there was also a third option.

Forex: How to Trade Around Fed's Decisions on Interest Rates
You can navigate volatility on big news days with Elliott wave analysis

Around data releases, forex; traders often buy the U.S. dollar -- but then sell it just as quickly (or vice versa). Trading at such moments can be dangerous, but it helps if you know Elliott wave analysis. Watch this classic free 8-minute video where the editor of EWI's intensive Currency Specialty Service Jim Martens explains how.

Bernanke's Burn Notice -- Why Now?

Like a spy who gets a burn notice (as depicted in USA Network's hit series, Burn Notice), suddenly he lost his support. No one trusts him anymore. Why the sudden turnaround in his fortunes?

The Fed-led Long Bond Rally That Never Was

Plunge Protection Team: Is It Holding Up The Dow?
Rumors are, the government "manipulates the market." Is it safe to invest now?

Federal Reserve: The Appearance of Control
Could Ben Bernanke's "Person of the Year" award mark a turning point for the markets?

By now, the financial panic of March 2009 is a hazy memory for many investors. The Dow is above 10,000. "The Great Recession" is apparently "over." And according to the popular vote, the man to thank is Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, who's just been named Time Magazine's "Person of the Year." But could this award mark a turning point for the markets?

Can The Fed Ensure Economic Recovery? RATE-ing In Vain

The Fed: At Last, Others See that the Emperor Wears No Clothes

Even longer than U.S. Representative Ron Paul has campaigned against the Fed, Bob Prechter has steadily built the case that the Fed is powerless to change the forces in the economy. He thinks the biggest mistake is to view the Fed as a leader rather than a follower of the markets. Here's why.

U.S. Dollar Soars To A Five-Week High: What Now?
"Fundamentals" can hardly explain the dollar's recent strength

EUR/USD (Forex): How to Forecast Market Moves Before They Occur
Not every Elliott wave forecast works out. But the method's objectivity still trumps most discussions about "market fundamentals."

News stories move the markets -- that's what just about every investor believes. But can you predict what the market will do before the news is released? Let's look at a fresh example: the actio in the EUR/USD on November 4, when the Federal Reserve Bank announced its latest decision on the U.S. interest rates.

The New Carry Trade
How long the new "carry trade" funded by low U.S. interest rates may last?

As the recession has taken hold, short-term U.S. interest rates have been pushed down to .25% or lower. This encourages those who want to borrow to do so in U.S. dollars, which is exactly how the low Japanese interest rates of the past boom cycle encouraged borrowing in yen. But markets can move fast when they head down, and when a carry trade unwinds, few things move faster.

Illusion of Control: Central Banks and Interest Rates
A quick look at the right chart can make things crystal clear.

On October 6, the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the global financial community with a .25% interest rate hike. Only 1 in 20 surveyed economists expected it. But if conventional economists would simply plot central banks’ decisions on a chart of bond yields, they would make a "shocking" discovery that could save them a lot of surprises...

The Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged: Now What?
Or, an even better question: So what?

What an interesting day of trading we saw in stocks on Wednesday (Sept. 23.) On the same day, we had: 1. A single event -- the Fed's interest rate announcement; 2. The stock market's bullish -- and -- bearish "reaction" to it, and 3. Several news stories explaining why stocks rallied -- and -- declined after the event. One question remains: Where will stocks go from here?

Illusion of Control: The Fed, Stock Market and Economy
People who say the Fed controls inflation and deflation miss this key point: social mood.