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Why "Predicting the Present" Is Not a Forecast
Stock market trend changes are almost always unexpected.

By Bob Stokes
1/7/2013 7:00:00 PM

Most mainstream market forecasts boil down to trend extrapolation. By definition, a forecast describes the future. But all too often, people who try to describe the future do little more than "predict the present." Recent bullish 2013 forecasts from Wall Street may have been voiced on the verge of a major trend change.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, banks, Bob Prechter, Citigroup, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, Goldman Sachs, herding, history, investor psychology, long-term trend, market crash, market forecasts, sentiment, stock indexes, Wall Street

Category: Stocks

Europe's Financial Flameout: Too Late to Extinguish?
How many European banks will go up in smoke?

By Bob Stokes
5/16/2012 5:30:00 PM

Almost all bank buildings look solid on the outside. But, of course, the goings-on inside are what count. Greece is again in the spotlight, yet we know the financial health of other European banks is the bigger question...

Filed Under: banks, Elliott wave, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, eurozone, Goldman Sachs, soverign debt crisis

Category: European Markets

Will Goldman Sachs Lead the Way Down (Again)?
A departing insider points the finger: Is the market next?

By Bob Stokes
3/14/2012 4:45:00 PM

Goldman not only survived the 2007-2009 financial crisis, losses in the firm's core business were offset by a bearish bet on the mortgage sector -- a bet which came at the expense of Goldman's own customers. What does this have to do with today? Read this...

Filed Under: debt crisis, Elliott wave, Goldman Sachs, Wall Street

Category: Stocks

Goldman Sachs: Wall Street's "Queen Bee" Gets Stung
EWI foresaw the turn in Goldman's fate from invincible to embattled

By Nico Isaac
10/21/2011 2:45:00 PM

Few mainstream commentators anticipated Goldman Sachs' recent decline. Yet it's hard to blame them, because they simply aren't equipped to anticipate trend changes. Most of the time they simply extrapolate the previous trend into the future. Goldman has been a Wall Street powerhouse for decades -- so why would that ever change?

Filed Under: bailouts, banks, Bear Stearns, credit crisis, Elliott wave, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers

Category: U.S. Economy

Cold Front In Crude Oil: Is A Bearish Winter Ahead?
EWI's "Energy Specialty Service" tells you whether or not crude oil prices should soon heat up

By Nico Isaac
10/3/2011 3:00:00 PM

In 2008, if you told most mainstream financial experts that crude oil prices would be circling the drain of a one-year low in October 2011, they'd say you were sniffing wood glue. YET -- after hitting an all-time high at $147 in July 2008, oil prices endured a precipitous decline to a low-$30-a-barrel bottom in mid 2009. It was by NOT relying on crude's "fundamentals" that EWI's Energy Specialty Service was able to foresee crude oil's peak in 2008.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, Goldman Sachs

Category: Energy

Investment Banks Charged with "Murder" of Mortgage Boom in the First Degree
EWI foresaw a legal blitz against investment banks long before the financial boom went bust. Now, EWI's brand-new, September 2011 Financial Forecast brings you the latest

By Nico Isaac
9/6/2011 2:30:00 PM

Financial historians have now cleared yet another page in their 2011 books for the date of September 2, also known as the "Friday Night Massacre." On that day, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency -- on behalf of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- filed a $196 billion lawsuit against 17 of the nation's top-tier investment banks.

Filed Under: Fannie Mae, Goldman Sachs

Category: U.S. Economy

Will The REAL Dow Please Stand Up! You May Wanna Sit Down For This
The Dow as measured in gold is still 80% below its 1999 peak

By Nico Isaac
1/21/2011 10:00:00 AM

True or False: The “real” DJIA has rallied 80%+ from a March 2009 low, to stand at its highest level in three years? That depends on whom you ask. For most mainstream experts, the Dow’s upsurge is a very real start of a new bull market. There’s just one major problem with this assumption; namely: Wall Street reports the nominal value of the Dow in terms of the U.S. dollar. But there is also another measure of the Dow's strength: gold. And in terms of gold, the Dow’s purchasing power isn’t looking so pretty...

Filed Under: bull market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), gold futures, Goldman Sachs, inflation, nominal Dow, real Dow, Wall Street

Category: Stocks

Picking Up the Bear Trail
An Approaching Bear Will Likely Catch "Happy Campers" Unawares

By Bob Stokes
10/5/2010 4:30:00 PM

If another "ransacking" by a bear is possible, are there any useful signs to watch for?  One way is to...

Filed Under: Goldman Sachs, S&P 500, Robert Prechter, mutual funds

Category: Stocks

The Myth of Earnings
Something to consider as we go into another earnings season.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
7/12/2010 2:15:00 PM

As the new season for corporate earnings reports approaches, analysts start talking about the influence of earnings on the broad stock market. But here's a shocker: The idea of earnings driving the broad stock market is a myth. When making a claim like that, you'd better have proof...

Filed Under: Goldman Sachs, crude oil, Robert Prechter

Category: Stocks

Watching a Wave; Protecting a Nest Egg
Almost no one tells you about another "financial tsunami" that's likely on its way.

By Bob Stokes
5/10/2010 11:00:00 AM

When tsunami forecasters warn "Move to higher ground!" it's not wise to think, "I won't believe a tsunami is coming until I see it." You won't SEE until it's too late. It wouldn't be wise to ignore signs of "a financial tsunami," either. And almost no one tells you about another "financial tsunami" that's likely on its way.

Filed Under: Robert Prechter, Goldman Sachs

Category: Stocks

Goldman Sachs Company Charged With Fraud: Who Could Have Guessed? Part II
The firm's history suggests its vulnerability in periods of negative social mood.

By Editorial Staff
4/20/2010 12:15:00 PM

In the November 2009 issue of Elliott Wave International's monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, co-editors Steven Hochberg and Peter Kendall published a careful study of Goldman Sachs company history -- and made a sobering forecast for its future. In this special three-part series, we are releasing the entire Special Report to you. Here is Part II; please come back later this week for Part III.

Filed Under: Goldman Sachs, Robert Prechter, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, AIG

Category: Stocks

Goldman Sachs Company Charged With Fraud: Who Could Have Guessed? Part I
The firm's history suggests its vulnerability in periods of negative social mood.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/16/2010 3:00:00 PM

In November 2009, Elliott Wave International's monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast published a careful study of Goldman Sachs' history -- and made a grim forecast for the firm's future. In this special three-part series, we will release the entire Special Report to you. Here is Part I; come back next week for Parts II and III.

Filed Under: Goldman Sachs, Warren Buffett, U.S. Treasuries, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Wall Street

Category: Stocks

Lehman Brothers: Beep, Beep, Beep, Beeeeee.....

By Nico Isaac
9/10/2008 7:15:00 PM

In hindsight, it may appear more-than-obvious that Lehman was next in the line of Wall Street firms going from “the good life” to life support. But what about before? The public was oblivious all the way up to the red-flashing LEH ticker tape...

Filed Under: Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley

Category: U.S. Economy

Is This Any Way To Run A Stock Market?
Goldman Sachs downgrades GM... after hitting a 53 year low.

By Peter Kendall
6/27/2008 5:00:00 PM

It's only after GM loses 70% of its market value that it's finally voted downgraded. Why does the market lag so far behind such results? Elliott Wave International has some ideas.

Filed Under: General Motors (GM), Goldman Sachs

Category: U.S. Economy

No Country For Old Mania
How much did has the marketplace lost in the "coin toss" of high-risk mortgages? Try $400 billion and counting

By Nico Isaac
2/26/2008 4:15:00 PM

The hunt for the guilty parties responsible for the housing and credit blood bath has begun as the world's largest economy has become No Country For Old bull market mania. Truth be told, the subprime mortgage industry was a marked man the moment it went mainstream, a fate our March 2005 Elliott Wave Financial Foreacst saw coming from miles away...

Filed Under: mania, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs

Category: U.S. Economy

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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.