An Economic Earthquake Shakes U.S. Municipalities
"California dreaming" turns into a Golden State nightmare

By Bob Stokes
5/20/2013 5:15:00 PM

Municipalities have borrowed and spent for decades. A substantial number are going broke. The economic earthquake at the state and local level is part of an even larger seismic shift.

Filed Under: debt crisis, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, housing prices, municipal bonds, Robert Prechter

Category: U.S. Economy

---

Bob Prechter's Big 5 Warnings for Gold and Silver Investors
From the April 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist

By Editorial Staff
5/20/2013 2:00:00 PM

Successful market analysis is rooted in irony and paradox. Our gold and silver analysis at the peak two years ago relied heavily on five arguments directly opposed to those offered everywhere else we look.

Filed Under: central banks, Gold, Robert Prechter, silver

Category: Gold and Silver

---

Deflation Warning: Money Manager Startles Global Conference
History shows that the U.S. should pay attention to economies in Europe

By Bob Stokes
5/17/2013 3:45:00 PM

The economy has been sluggish for five years. There's no shortage of chatter about "why," yet few observers mention deflation. One exception is a hedge fund manager who spoke up at the recent Milken Institute Global Conference.

Filed Under: bloomberg, CNBC, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, great depression, Robert Prechter

Category: U.S. Economy

---

Evidence That Gold and Silver Are Not So Precious During Economic Downturns
History reveals that precious metals perform poorly during recessions and depressions.

By Bob Stokes
5/15/2013 5:30:00 PM

It's often said that gold and silver "always" go up during hard economic times. But you might be surprised to learn what the historical evidence says about this widely held belief. Let's start with gold ...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Theorist, Gold, precious metals, Robert Prechter, silver

Category: Gold and Silver

---

Forecasts for the Dow Industrials: Off the Charts and Then Some
If you thought Dow 60,000 was far-fetched

By Bob Stokes
5/15/2013 2:30:00 PM

The February Elliott Wave Theorist noted that "money managers are predicting a Dow as high as 60,000." If you think that is way too optimistic, look at this other forecast.

Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, Elliott wave, investor psychology, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks

---

Why Trend Extrapolation Doesn't Work in Financial Markets
History is filled with dramatic social changes.

By Robert Prechter, Jr., CMT
5/14/2013 1:30:00 PM

Futurists nearly always extrapolate past trends, and they are nearly always wrong. You cannot use extrapolation under the physics paradigm to predict social trends, including macroeconomic, political and financial trends. The most certain aspect of social history is dramatic change.

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter, social mood

Category: Classic Prechter

---

Initial Public Offerings of 2013 Meet the Manias of 2007 and 1929
IPOs are set to raise the most money since 2007.

By Bob Stokes
5/13/2013 5:00:00 PM

How can you tell when stock market optimism has turned "fervent"?  One historically sure sign is that a rush of companies go public. The year 1999 was a perfect example. Large numbers of Internet companies with zero revenue went public. The fervor didn't last, as you may recall. 2007 was also a busy year for IPOs -- and another major market top. Now consider the IPO levels of 2013.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Elliott wave, investor psychology, risk appetite, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes

Category: Stocks

---

How an Instinct Can Be Financially Dangerous
Beware of what accompanies market tops.

By Bob Stokes
5/9/2013 4:45:00 PM

Teenagers dress and talk alike. This natural tendency to conform carries into adulthood. Nowhere is the human tendency to conform more pronounced than in financial markets. Investors instinctively adopt the market views of people they perceive to be "in the know." Learn why this instinct can be financially dangerous.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Classic Prechter

---

The Most Efficient Path of the Stock Market Unfolds at Large Degree
Investors face a historical juncture in the price pattern.

By Bob Stokes
5/8/2013 12:45:00 PM

In the 1920s, R.N. Elliott was a successful author, consultant and accountant. But late in that decade he contracted a debilitating and near-fatal illness that left him bedridden. He chose to pass the time by studying the stock market's price patterns. His career had required meticulous attention to detail, and in turn he applied that rigor to his study of the market. Learn about his fascinating discovery and how it's relevant today.

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave Theorist, Fibonacci, market forecasts, Ralph Nelson Elliott, Robert Prechter, stock indexes, technical analysis

Category: Stocks

---

As with "Madame Deficit," Heads May Roll During the Next Economic Crisis
The blame game will get serious.

By Bob Stokes
5/6/2013 5:15:00 PM

Marie Antoinette had been a spendthrift early in her reign, but curtailed that habit when she learned what the public thought. Even so, the young French queen had already been nicknamed "Madame Deficit." French debt had ballooned before she and King Louis XVI took the throne. But they received the blame for France's financial straits. Now fast forward to the U.S. economy today. Get ready for the blame game to turn serious.

Filed Under: deficit, economic indicators, Elliott wave, europe, history, Robert Prechter, sentiment, social mood, Sovereign Debt

Category: U.S. Economy

---

Stock Market High-Flyers Often Crash to Earth
Perpetual bulls fail to recall the long record of corporate tombstones.

By Bob Stokes
4/30/2013 6:00:00 PM

No one ever tells you that in the history of this world, far more stocks have eventually gone to zero than have survived to the current day...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Robert Prechter

Category: Stocks

---

Why You Should Make Wealth Protection a Top Priority
The SafeWealth Group has private long-term relationships with the world's safest financial institutions.

By Bob Stokes
4/29/2013 6:30:00 PM

EWI's analysis strongly suggests that the economy is entering a rare period of deflation. In terms of scale, U.S. history includes only two other such periods.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Robert Prechter

Category: Classic Prechter

---

Even Major News Triggers Only Short-Term Market Reactions
Historical events serve as examples.

By Bob Stokes
4/25/2013 5:00:00 PM

Shortly after 1 p.m. on April 23, a phony posting on Twitter claimed that explosions occurred at the White House and that the President was injured. The Dow Industrials tumbled over 100 points in just a couple of minutes. When traders learned the tweet was false, the Dow just as quickly resumed the trend it had been on beforehand. But whether a given news item is phony or factual is irrelevant. Look at two charts to see how the market reacted to a major historical event.

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, history, investment decisions, long-term trend, Robert Prechter

Category: Stocks

---

(Sample) A Historic Sentiment Peak So Extreme It Happens "Only Once in Centuries"
From the April 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist

By Robert Prechter, Jr., CMT
4/24/2013 8:30:00 AM

(From the new Elliott Wave Theorist) Not a single investment market – be it bonds, stocks, real estate, commodities or precious metals – stands anywhere near a major bottom today. Every one of them continues to show characteristics of being on the left or right side of a historic top of sentiment so extreme as to occur on average only once in centuries.

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter

Category: Classic Prechter

---

The Lurking Danger Behind Ultra-Low Interest Rates
The quest for higher yield can lead to a damaged portfolio.

By Bob Stokes
4/22/2013 5:30:00 PM

Risk-averse investors who depend on fixed income have been hurt by ultra-low interest rates. To make ends meet, many resort to riskier vehicles like bonds. Some fixed-income investors have been sold on the idea that bonds are relatively safe compared to stocks. But The Wall Street Journal recently noted that, "Safety has rarely been more expensive -- or more dangerous." Learn about two risks that bond investors currently face.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Interest Rates, junk bonds, money markets, municipal bonds, Robert Prechter, Treasury bonds, treasury yields, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Interest Rates

---

(Audio) Q&A: Robert Prechter on the Fed, Inflation, Gold and More

By Editorial Staff
4/22/2013 1:30:00 PM

The figure here shows gold and silver prices for 2012 with the dates of the Fed’s unprecedented announcements. Both times, metals bulls got everything they hoped for and feared. Yet both markets peaked shortly after the first announcement, and they fell hard from a lower peak starting the very hour that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed the start of his program to more than double his inflating from an already unprecedented rate. During that hour on Dec. 12, from 1:30 p.m. to 2:30 p.m., Robert Prechter was on the phone doing an interview with GoldSeek radio.

Filed Under: Gold, interview, Robert Prechter

Category: Classic Prechter

---

Bears Continue to Take a Giant Bite Out of Apple
Our charts reveal why professional analysts never saw the 40% freefall in Apple shares coming.

By Nico Isaac
4/18/2013 5:30:00 PM

Last September, with Apple Inc. shares soaring into the outergalactic $700 region, the mainstream experts tightened their grip on the upside. But instead of going to the moon, AAPL crashed back to earth in a 40% selloff to the 16-month lows we see today. One question remains: How could the professional analysts have gotten it so wrong?

Filed Under: Bear market, Bob Prechter, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, mutual funds, Robert Prechter

Category: Asian Markets

---

Prechter: "I'd Love to Turn Long-Term Bullish Again"
The next buying opportunity is going to be the one of a lifetime.

By Bob Stokes
4/17/2013 4:45:00 PM

Hindsight shows that Robert Prechter's August 1983 then-radical forecast of a "once-in-a-generation money-making opportunity" did happen. Yet that was a two-part forecast, so this question remains: Is the "biggest financial catastrophe" that Prechter foresaw still unfolding, or has the Fed confined the damage to the 2007-2009 financial crisis?

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Bear market, bull market, consumer confidence, consumer price index, deflation, Elliott Wave Theorist, Gold, Robert Prechter, soverign debt crisis, U.S. STOCK MARKET, unemployment

Category: Classic Prechter

---

U.S. Markets and the Transition from Greed to Fear
Prechter: "When this piper gets paid, it's going to be an awesome sight."

By Bob Stokes
4/16/2013 5:45:00 PM

Measuring market greed versus market fear can provide a useful tool for gauging investor sentiment. EWI looks at investor sentiment as well as the market's momentum and price pattern. Altogether, they provide a valuable perspective on whether greed or fear will prevail in the future. Robert Prechter offers his perspective on the market's current juncture.

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, history, market crash, Robert Prechter, sentiment, VIX, Wall Street

Category: Stocks

---

The Single Most Important Leading Economic Indicator
History shows the stock market leads the economy.

By Bob Stokes
4/11/2013 5:45:00 PM

The phrase "leading economic indicators" refers to a core set of data points: the Consumer Price Index, real earnings, employment, U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, Producer Price Index and so on. And Forbes recently listed several unusual economic indicators which include lip stick and wine auctions. Learn about the single most important economic indicator that trumps them all.

Filed Under: economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, history, Robert Prechter, stock indexes

Category: U.S. Economy

---