The Growing Case for Global Deflation
Prepare for a major worldwide economic contraction.

By Bob Stokes
4/24/2013 4:30:00 PM

The evidence for global deflation continues to build. Consider the recent plunge in the prices of commodities and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Plus, the International Monetary Fund recently warned that ...

Filed Under: commodities, crude oil, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, Gold, inflation, International Monetary Fund (IMF), silver, stock indexes, Treasury bonds

Category: Global Markets

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The Lurking Danger Behind Ultra-Low Interest Rates
The quest for higher yield can lead to a damaged portfolio.

By Bob Stokes
4/22/2013 5:30:00 PM

Risk-averse investors who depend on fixed income have been hurt by ultra-low interest rates. To make ends meet, many resort to riskier vehicles like bonds. Some fixed-income investors have been sold on the idea that bonds are relatively safe compared to stocks. But The Wall Street Journal recently noted that, "Safety has rarely been more expensive -- or more dangerous." Learn about two risks that bond investors currently face.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Interest Rates, junk bonds, money markets, municipal bonds, Robert Prechter, Treasury bonds, treasury yields, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Interest Rates

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Does More Monetary Stimulus Mean Higher Gold Prices? (Update)
Central bank charts of gold prices & stimulus initiatives since Sept. 2011 set the record straight

By Nico Isaac
2/7/2013 12:15:00 PM

I recently discussed the widespread belief that monetary stimulus from global central banks is to gold prices what doping is to Lance Armstrong's cycling speed. Stop the money printing and low interest rates, and you significantly slow down gold's gains. The mainstream notion was again alive and well on Feb. 7, the day of the European Central Banks' latest policy meeting. In the hours leading up to the event, the rumor meter tipped in favor of further vigilance and "opened the door to another rate cut." 

Filed Under: Bank of England, banks, central banks, european central bank, Gold, monetary policy, quantitative easing, stimulus package, Traders, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver

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"Control of Interest Rates" is the Biggest Myth About the Federal Reserve
Bond investors need to prepare for a major change of trend

By Bob Stokes
1/31/2013 4:45:00 PM

Many observers of financial markets hang on the Federal Reserve's every word, and believe the central bank determines interest rates. However, the evidence shows that interest rates are not controlled by the Fed. Bond investors need to prepare for a major change in trend.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, central banks, conquer the crash, Elliott wave, herding, Interest Rates, market myths, Short Term Update, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Interest Rates

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Does More Monetary Stimulus Mean Higher Gold Prices?
Central bank charts of gold prices & stimulus initiatives since Sept. 2011 set the record straight

By Nico Isaac
1/30/2013 5:45:00 PM

Ask any mainstream economist worth his or her salt about the relationship between central bank monetary policy and precious metals, and you'll probably hear something like: Stimulus is to gold prices what doping is to Lance Armstrong's cycling speed. Stop the money printing and low interest rates, and you significantly slow down gold's gains. Are they right? Is there a correlation between monetary easing and rising gold prices?

Filed Under: Bank of England, central banks, Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Gold, Interest Rates, monetary policy, quantitative easing, stimulus package, Traders, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver

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Economic Reality Takes a Back Seat to Investor Irrationality
Following the investment crowd can be damaging to your portfolio

By Bob Stokes
1/18/2013 5:15:00 PM

The United States faces what a former Treasury Secretary calls a "debt bomb." Yet, investors continue to plow money into risk-assets, like stocks and junk bonds. Learn what Bob Prechter says about irrational investment behavior and its likely outcome.

Filed Under: bloomberg, Bob Prechter, CNBC, debt crisis, Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, junk bonds, municipal bonds, sentiment, stock indexes, Treasury bonds

Category: U.S. Economy

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The Trap is Set for High-Yield Bond Investors
"Junk" bonds have that name for a good reason

By Bob Stokes
12/12/2012 5:45:00 PM

Low interest rates have attracted a swarm of yield hungry investors into junk bonds. Learn why these investors may have stepped into a soon-to-shut trap.
 

Filed Under: all the same market theory, credit rating, debt, Elliott wave, Interest Rates, junk bonds, risk appetite, Treasury bonds, treasury yields, U.S. Treasuries

Category: Interest Rates

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Why Billions in Bond Portfolios May Soon Evaporate
Muni and junk bond investors rush in when it may be the worst time

By Bob Stokes
11/15/2012 6:00:00 PM

Many who have recently rushed into muni-bonds fear the tax hikes that will be triggered if lawmakers go off the "fiscal cliff." Junk bond investors, on the other hand, want high yields. However, EWI sees financial danger ahead for bond portfolios. Learn why.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, credit rating, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, Interest Rates, junk bonds, municipal bonds, risk appetite, Treasury bonds, treasury yields, U.S. Treasuries

Category: U.S. Economy

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Unsuspecting Bond Fund Investors Are Set Up for a Shock
Why risk in the rebalanced portfolio is ramping higher

By Bob Stokes
9/7/2012 5:00:00 PM

You can learn about a striking parallel between the bond market of 1929-1932 and today and what to expect next...

Filed Under: deflation, diversification, economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, Interest Rates, investment strategy, investor psychology, junk bonds, market forecasts, money markets, municipal bonds, mutual funds, sentiment, Treasury bonds, treasury yields

Category: Interest Rates

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When Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates? When the Market Says So
The Federal Reserve Bank's interest rate policy is not as "independent" as most people think

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
8/30/2012 5:15:00 PM

You probably know what event dominates this week's U.S. economic calendar: the August 31 Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's speech at the policy meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, monetary policy, Treasury bills (T-bills), Treasury bonds, treasury yields, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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If You Think Bonds Are a Conservative Investment, Think Again
Bond investors beware of deflation's impact on yields

By Bob Stokes
8/29/2012 4:45:00 PM

Elliott Wave International believes that economic contraction is set to accelerate. What does deflation mean for bond yields in the months ahead?...
 

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, inflation, Treasury bills (T-bills), Treasury bonds, treasury yields, U.S. Treasuries

Category: Interest Rates

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The Federal Reserve Has No Cure for What Ails the Economy
Learn why the credit crisis will inevitably conclude in a deflationary depression

By Bob Stokes
7/18/2012 3:30:00 PM

The Federal Reserve will not be able to prevent a global credit collapse. EWI's Financial Forecast Service offers ideas on how to position yourself. These are ideas you can put to work right away. The unprecedented build-up of credit in the past 80 years means the economic collapse could be swift. It's best to prepare now...

Filed Under: banks, Ben Bernanke, central banks, credit crisis, credit rating, debt, deficit, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, european central bank, European debt crisis, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Greenspan, liquidity, M3 money supply, monetary policy, monetization, QE2, quantitative easing, Sovereign Debt, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), unemployment

Category: U.S. Economy

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Bonds and the Era of Deflation: A Safe Alternative to Stocks?
Special Report: A just-published 10-page urgent warning to bond investors

By Bob Stokes
6/7/2012 5:45:00 PM

The bull market in bonds has been going on for decades. The most recent bond investing craze merely heaped more icing on the cake. In fact, the interest rate on the Treasury's 10-year note has just fallen to the lowest level in U.S. history. Will bond investors continue to be rewarded?...

Filed Under: debt, deflation, economic depression, Elliott wave, Interest Rates, junk bonds, market forecasts, municipal bonds, risk management, safe haven, Treasury bills (T-bills), Treasury bonds, treasury yields, U.S. Treasuries

Category: Interest Rates

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U.S. Bonds: Loved By No One... But Outperforms Them All. Learn Why
Newsflash: U.S. bonds outperform U.S. stocks! Another investment theme EWI got right -- here's how

By Nico Isaac
1/12/2012 4:45:00 PM

On the financial playground, long-term bonds are generally the last picked for the winning team -- well behind equities, commodities, high-yield (junk) bonds, even the barely established emerging markets. The reason being: the amount of time it takes to actually reap the fruits of your return. BUT, as a January 5, 2012 CNBC articlereveals, the asset that supposedly nobody loves has outperformed them all.

Filed Under: conquer the crash, credit crisis, debt, debt crisis, deflation, Elliott wave, emerging markets, hyperinflation, inflation, Interest Rates, liquidity, Robert Prechter, QE2, quantitative easing, social mood, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries

Category: U.S. Economy

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"Timing Deflations: The Kondratieff Cycle"
Is the downside of the cycle over?

By Bob Stokes
1/11/2012 4:15:00 PM

The average Kondratieff cycle is 54 years, so one cannot expect precise timing; yet it remains a useful analytical tool. For example, the Kondratieff cycle has been "spot on" when it comes to forecasting the overall trend of Treasury bond yields. Take a look at this chart...

Filed Under: deflation, Elliott wave, inflation, market forecasts, Treasury bonds

Category: U.S. Economy

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The Federal Reserve: Is This "House Divided" Losing Credibility?
Signs that a rare economic trend is now underway

By Bob Stokes
11/16/2011 4:45:00 PM

Is this the point where Bernanke can no longer use Fed policy to "inflate at will"? Well, Robert Prechter says something "momentous" happened on September 21, 2011...

Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, central banks, deflation, inflation, monetary policy, QE2, quantitative easing, Robert Prechter, stimulus package, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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40+ Global Markets: Is the Drama Yet to Unfold?
…or are markets back to their winning ways? The new Global Market Perspective gives you answers

By Nathaniel Williams
11/16/2011 10:45:00 AM

You may not have realized that in real terms, 6 of the 8 major Asian-Pacific markets Global Market Perspective covers each month still trade below their peaks of the early 1990s -- or even the late 1980s. Does that mean that the Asian bull markets have been a "fake"?

Filed Under: Chinese markets, currency, euro, eurozone, Gold, market forecasts, stock indexes, Treasury bonds

Category: Global Markets

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U.S. Treasuries: Not the Butt of the Financial Joke Anymore
Treasuries outperform U.S. stocks! Another trend EWI got right -- here's how

By Nico Isaac
11/1/2011 2:30:00 PM

U.S. treasuries have long since been the butt of the financial joke, ridiculed for being worth little more than the paper they're issued on. The idea being: once you factor in early redemption penalties and inflation, the interest payments on long- or even short-dated securities often outweigh the capital gains. Not Anymore.

Filed Under: Robert Prechter, cash, conquer the crash, credit crisis, emerging markets, inflation, investment decisions, junk bonds, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, Treasury bills (T-bills), Treasury bonds, U.S. Treasuries

Category: Stocks

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"Darkest Days" for the Economy: Behind Us, or Just Ahead?
Economic skies forecast: slowly clearing, heavy rain returning, or cyclone?

By Bob Stokes
10/10/2011 5:15:00 PM

Many people still talk about a "recovery," or at worst only see a possible double-dip recession. But what if the mistake was to think the economy was only in a recession in the first place?...

Filed Under: Bank of England, Ben Bernanke, central banks, debt crisis, deflation, economic depression, great depression, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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Will The Fed's "Operation Twist" Turn The Economy Around?
Why is Ben Bernanke's goal lower interest rates when EWI's Short Term Update's chart shows that 10-year bond yields are already at a five-decade low?

By Nico Isaac
9/20/2011 3:30:00 PM

Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, central banks, credit crisis, debt, Elliott wave, Robert Prechter, Short Term Update, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries

Category: U.S. Economy

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