Central Banks Send a Message About the Price Trend of Gold
Government is the "ultimate crowd" and usually the final group to act on a trend.

By Bob Stokes
6/4/2013 4:00:00 PM

The gold holdings of central banks have reportedly lost $560 billion in value since gold's all-time high in September 2011. Even so, world governments are expected to buy more of the yellow metal in 2013. Learn why government actions may be a signal about the price trend of gold.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, central banks, commodities, Elliott wave, Gold, wisdom of crowds

Category: Gold and Silver

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Why the "Yield Shock" in US Treasuries Is No Shock at All
Find out how long the reportedly "unexpected" storyline in US bond yields will run.

By Nico Isaac
5/29/2013 6:30:00 PM

Most of the time, US Treasuries are about as exciting as watching bread mold – until now. Both 10-year notes and 30-year bonds are on track for their sharpest monthly loss since December 2009. And on May 28, Treasury yields stole the financial spotlight by soaring to their highest level in 14 months. Which brings us to the headline question: Why?

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, central banks, debt, Elliott wave, financial forecast, Interest Rates, long-term trend, Robert Prechter, Treasury bonds, treasury yields, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries

Category: Interest Rates

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Bob Prechter's Big 5 Warnings for Gold and Silver Investors
From the April 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist

By Editorial Staff
5/28/2013 3:15:00 PM

Successful market analysis is rooted in irony and paradox. Our gold and silver analysis at the peak two years ago relied heavily on five arguments directly opposed to those offered everywhere else we look.

Filed Under: central banks, Gold, Robert Prechter, silver

Category: Gold and Silver

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If the Fed Stops Easing, Will Gold Start Wheezing?
The answer is in central bank charts of gold prices and stimulus initiatives since September 2011.

By Nico Isaac
5/13/2013 4:30:00 PM

Ask a mainstream economist about the relationship between central bank monetary policy and precious metals, and you'll hear something like: A hawkish Federal Reserve is to gold prices what kryptonite is to Superman. End the money printing and low interest rates, and you take the gravity-defying power out of gold.

Filed Under: central banks, Gold, quantitative easing, stimulus package, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver

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U.S. Stocks Are Hot. What Does That Mean for India and China?
Sometimes global markets move in tandem, and sometimes they don't.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/8/2013 4:30:00 PM

Think back to 2007 and early 2008, before the worst of the financial crisis. Perhaps you recall this major investment belief: Even if the West took a dive, emerging markets would save the day. But when the crisis hit, emerging markets crashed right along with the developed ones. Still, there were a few important nuances. For example...

Filed Under: central banks, Chinese markets, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, emerging markets, fundamental analysis, Indian markets, Shanghai Composite Index

Category: Asian Markets

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Cyprus Banking Bailout: Costs Rise, Heads Roll
The officials and experts who didn't see the crisis coming were supposed to prevent it in the first place.

By Nico Isaac
4/16/2013 5:00:00 PM

The cost of the Cyprus bailout seems to get bigger every week. It has gone from 10€ to 17€ and now to 23€ billion euros. What's more, recent reports say the island nation will need a bigger bake sale to raise the necessary funds to foot the growing bill. On April 12, rumors swirled that the European Central Bank will force Cyprus to liquidate half-a-billion dollars of its gold reserves.

Filed Under: bailouts, banks, central banks, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, eurozone, financial forecast

Category: European Markets

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Did a Divided Fed Cause Gold's Decline?
The answer is in central bank charts of gold prices and stimulus initiatives since September 2011.

By Nico Isaac
4/10/2013 7:00:00 PM

Ask a mainstream economist about the relationship between central bank monetary policy and precious metals, and you'll probably hear something like: Stimulus is to gold prices what doping is to Lance Armstrong's cycling speed. Stop the money printing and low interest rates, and you slow down gold's gains.

Filed Under: banks, central banks, Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Gold, inflation, precious metals, quantitative easing, Traders, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver

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Short-Term Euro Memory Loss
.. And long-term euro calls from EWI's European Financial Forecast

By Nico Isaac
4/1/2013 5:15:00 PM

Recently I watched "Memento," the excellent movie about a man with retrograde amnesia who tries to solve his wife's murder. The protagonist has about 30 seconds to write down new clues on scraps of paper -- or in some cases tattoo those clues onto his body -- before his short-term memory completely fails. 

Filed Under: central banks, currency, Elliott wave, euro, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone, U.S. dollar

Category: European Markets

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Every Big Economic Collapse Has a First Domino
When will the dominoes begin to tumble, or has it already begun?

By Bob Stokes
3/26/2013 4:45:00 PM

Financial history shows that every major credit boom is followed by a credit bust. The latest round of financial headlines remind us that unsustainable debt is crippling Europe. In the U.S., heavy debt burdens have put local and state governments in deep financial trouble. Federal debt rapidly approaches $17 trillion. What will be the first financial domino to fall?

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, banks, Ben Bernanke, bloomberg, central banks, debt, economic indicators, Elliott wave, European debt crisis, gross domestic product (GDP), Interest Rates, monetary policy, quantitative easing, Robert Prechter, soverign debt crisis, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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Has the European Central Bank Defeated the Sovereign Debt Crisis Once and For All?
A three-paneled chart reveals whether the critical precondition for recovery, consumer borrowing, is underway in Europe.

By Nico Isaac
3/21/2013 5:15:00 PM

Filed Under: central banks, debt crisis, euro, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone, liquidity, soverign debt crisis

Category: European Markets

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Does More Monetary Stimulus Mean Higher Gold Prices? (Update)
Central bank charts of gold prices & stimulus initiatives since Sept. 2011 set the record straight

By Nico Isaac
2/7/2013 12:15:00 PM

I recently discussed the widespread belief that monetary stimulus from global central banks is to gold prices what doping is to Lance Armstrong's cycling speed. Stop the money printing and low interest rates, and you significantly slow down gold's gains. The mainstream notion was again alive and well on Feb. 7, the day of the European Central Banks' latest policy meeting. In the hours leading up to the event, the rumor meter tipped in favor of further vigilance and "opened the door to another rate cut." 

Filed Under: Bank of England, banks, central banks, european central bank, Gold, monetary policy, quantitative easing, stimulus package, Traders, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver

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Little to Show for the $3 Trillion Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
The U.S. central bank's bond-buying spree has merely kept the economy running in place

By Bob Stokes
2/5/2013 5:30:00 PM

The Federal Reserve's aggressive bond buying has caused the central bank's balance sheet to balloon to $3 trillion for the first time. But for all of its quantitative easing initiatives, the economy remains fragile. Three economic professionals share a sobering outlook for the economy that's similar to the warnings in the second edition of Conquer the Crash.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, central banks, CNBC, conquer the crash, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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"Control of Interest Rates" is the Biggest Myth About the Federal Reserve
Bond investors need to prepare for a major change of trend

By Bob Stokes
1/31/2013 4:45:00 PM

Many observers of financial markets hang on the Federal Reserve's every word, and believe the central bank determines interest rates. However, the evidence shows that interest rates are not controlled by the Fed. Bond investors need to prepare for a major change in trend.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, central banks, conquer the crash, Elliott wave, herding, Interest Rates, market myths, Short Term Update, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Interest Rates

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Does More Monetary Stimulus Mean Higher Gold Prices?
Central bank charts of gold prices & stimulus initiatives since Sept. 2011 set the record straight

By Nico Isaac
1/30/2013 5:45:00 PM

Ask any mainstream economist worth his or her salt about the relationship between central bank monetary policy and precious metals, and you'll probably hear something like: Stimulus is to gold prices what doping is to Lance Armstrong's cycling speed. Stop the money printing and low interest rates, and you significantly slow down gold's gains. Are they right? Is there a correlation between monetary easing and rising gold prices?

Filed Under: Bank of England, central banks, Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Gold, Interest Rates, monetary policy, quantitative easing, stimulus package, Traders, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver

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How the Federal Reserve is Showing Financial Fear
Have you heard about the Fed's 180 degree turn?

By Bob Stokes
11/1/2012 5:00:00 PM

The central bank has thrown everything in its arsenal at the economy, but most key economic metrics have barely budged. In the epic struggle, the Fed's policy has been turned upside down. In the latest Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter noted...
 

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, central banks, Interest Rates, quantitative easing, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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$16 Trillion and Growing: A Mind-Blowing Perspective on U.S. Debt
National debt + deficit = Deflationary disaster

By Bob Stokes
10/15/2012 5:30:00 PM

The total amount of global debt, says Robert Prechter in a recent Theorist, is estimated to be around a quadrillion dollars. That's $1,000,000,000,000,000, or one-thousand trillion dollars. Is a day of reckoning ahead?
 

Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, central banks, conquer the crash, debt crisis, deficit, deflation, Elliott wave, gross domestic product (GDP), liquidity, Robert Prechter, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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A Surprising Group of Conservative Investors Is Scooping Up Stocks
Is this a contrarian indicator?

By Bob Stokes
10/10/2012 5:45:00 PM

Extreme optimism among investors is notable enough. Now, a surprising group of risk-averse investors is scooping up equity shares.

Filed Under: central banks, Elliott wave, herding, history, investor psychology, Magazine Cover Indicator, sentiment, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks

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The Consequences of an Overdose on Financial Amphetamines
Prepare for what few other people expect

By Bob Stokes
10/1/2012 4:45:00 PM

In the decades since WWII, inflation has arguably been the main economic worry. That's a long time to beat the same economic drum. No wonder it's hard for people to think about...

Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, central banks, conquer the crash, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, inflation, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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Crude Oil: How to Catch the Next Move Without Reading the News
If you know what to look for, the energy markets will often tip their hat before the news.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
9/21/2012 5:45:00 PM

On Sept. 21, crude gained almost $3. Predictably, the news attributed the rally to a "fundamental factor" -- namely, "central bank stimulus optimism" related to the European Central Bank's new bailout plan for Spain. Yes, the timing of the ECB announcement fit, but could you have seen the rally before the ECB had spoken? Yes -- here's how.

Filed Under: bailouts, central banks, commodities, crude oil, european central bank, futures trading, stimulus package

Category: Energy

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Bernanke's Bigger Bubble: QE-3 and the Coming Economic Crash
Why monetarist theory is flawed

By Bob Stokes
9/14/2012 5:30:00 PM

We've all heard the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Why should we think QE-3 will work when the previous two failed? (Don't think they failed? Then ask yourself why we need a third one.) Monetary policy cannot make the global credit bubble simply vanish. Only a deflationary crash can do that. The chart below reveals why...
 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Ben Bernanke, central banks, conquer the crash, credit crisis, credit rating, debt, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, Interest Rates, liquidity, monetary policy, quantitative easing, Robert Prechter, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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