Elliott Wave InternationalmyEWISocioniomics.Net

Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction are Back and Bigger Than Ever
A return to pre-financial crisis days

By Bob Stokes
10/16/2012 5:45:00 PM

The alarming increase in derivatives and renewed real estate speculation are major economic red flags. Yet, EWI sees even more evidence that the second and more devastating leg of the downturn is nigh.

Filed Under: credit default swaps, derivatives, economic indicators, Elliott wave, foreclosures, housing prices, Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)

Category: U.S. Economy

European Debt Crisis: "Imagine the Worst and Double It"
Just how will the sovereign debt crisis end?

By Bob Stokes
6/15/2012 3:00:00 PM

The Italian and Spanish economies are in shambles as borrowing costs have skyrocketed for both countries. And now front and center is Greece. But how about the endgame for the entire European Union?...

Filed Under: credit default swaps, deflation, European debt crisis, European Union (EU), eurozone, Greek debt, soverign debt crisis

Category: Global Markets

"Eerie Echo" of Pre-Lehman: Is Contagion from Europe Coming to the U.S.?
If Greece exits the eurozone the fallout could be "Lehman on steroids."

By Bob Stokes
6/12/2012 4:45:00 PM

As credit risk increases in Europe, the outcome may dwarf the Lehman shock wave. How can you protect your portfolio in a downward spiral of deflation? Every investor needs to know the answer to this question...

Filed Under: banks, conquer the crash, credit default swaps, debt crisis, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, European debt crisis, eurozone, Lehman Brothers, soverign debt crisis, subprime lending, world central banks

Category: U.S. Economy

Europe's Financial Fiasco: Migrating to the United States?
History may repeat itself

By Bob Stokes
5/29/2012 4:00:00 PM

About a year before the October 1929 crash, net capital inflows fell in several European countries. In other words: European economies began to deteriorate before the Great Depression began in the U.S. Is history repeating itself?...

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bank of Japan, bloomberg, credit crisis, credit default swaps, debt ceiling, debt downgrade, deflation, Elliott wave, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, financial forecast, great depression, Greek debt, housing prices, recession, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, Shanghai Composite Index, soverign debt crisis

Category: Global Markets

Good-bye Stock Trades: Look Who's Had Enough
Since 2008, stock trading has continued to fall. What do we see ahead?

By Bob Stokes
5/14/2012 5:30:00 PM

During Q1 of 2012, trading on the New York Stock Exchange was down 23 percent vs. last year. But if many individual investors have stayed out of the market, how has the S&P 500 more than doubled? Moreover, what do we see ahead?...

Filed Under: banks, credit default swaps, Elliott wave, financial forecast, investment decisions, investor psychology, liquidity, risk appetite, Robert Prechter, stock indexes

Category: Stocks

Credit Crisis Defaults: Will Rating Services Warn You in Time?
In the past, the rating services have been "woefully late"

By Bob Stokes
11/15/2011 5:15:00 PM

A big bet on European sovereign debt was the undoing of MF Global. Our latest Financial Forecast says "...Europe is the epicenter of the credit crisis," and observes that "The current level of unpayable debt is too big to bail." It's reasonable to believe that many more financial shoes will drop. What do we see just ahead?...

Filed Under: bailouts, conquer the crash, credit crisis, credit default swaps, credit rating, debt crisis, debt downgrade, economic depression, European debt crisis, European Union (EU), eurozone, Robert Prechter, soverign debt crisis

Category: U.S. Economy

European Sovereign Debt: What Do We See Ahead?
Keeping an Eye on European Bonds

By Bob Stokes
6/15/2011 5:15:00 PM

Well before the current round of headlines about the sovereign debt crisis -- our European Short Term Update forecasted higher yields for some debt plagued European countries. See how one of those forecasts turned out...
 

Filed Under: credit default swaps, credit rating, Elliott wave, european central bank, European Union (EU), eurozone, Irish debt crisis, Keltner channels, market forecasts, Sovereign Debt, soverign debt crisis

Category: European Markets

Sovereign Debt Crisis: Will the Third Falling Domino Topple a Fourth?
Is Portugal the "Last" European Bailout?

By Bob Stokes
5/5/2011 5:15:00 PM

But after the bailouts of Greece and Ireland, the rally in Europe's bourses seemed like a "pause" button on the sovereign debt crisis. In reality, the "play" button was never turned off...

Filed Under: bailouts, credit crisis, credit default swaps, european central bank, European Union (EU), eurozone, Greek debt, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Irish debt crisis

Category: Global Markets

The Municipal Debt Bomb is Ticking: When Will It Explode?
Elliott Wave International Sounded the Alarm Early

By Bob Stokes
12/22/2010 5:00:00 PM

It's clear that you cannot count on the mainstream media to alert you to economic trends in time to protect yourself and your family. Their alerts come way too late.  The Financial Forecast Service lets you know what we see, before the mainstream crowd.  The municipal debt bomb is ticking, and the ticking sound is getting louder...

Filed Under: credit crisis, credit default swaps, municipal bonds

Category: U.S. Economy

Will the Word "Bailout" Be Replaced by "Default" in Europe?
The Elliott Wave International European Financial Forecast Makes a Forecast

By Bob Stokes
12/6/2010 5:00:00 PM

A major sign of eroding confidence is the recent cost of sovereign credit default swaps. Think of this as the cost of "insurance against" a European nation defaulting. The cost of this insurance has been rising, which indicates further deterioration in the already "fragile confidence."...

Filed Under: credit default swaps, deflation, euro stoxx 50, European Union (EU), eurozone, market forecasts, Greek debt, Irish debt crisis, Sovereign Debt

Category: European Markets

Ireland's Banking Crisis: Ode On A Grecian Turn

By Nico Isaac
9/9/2010 11:00:00 AM

At the start of this year, the mainstream financial experts divided Europe's economy into two very different "animals": The PIGS (Portugal, Italy Greece and Spain) were sent off to the market to get slaughtered. But the "Celtic Tiger" of Ireland bared its razor-sharp teeth in a show of fierce autonomy and austerity. Flash ahead to today -- how things have changed...

Filed Under: Irish debt crisis, credit default swaps

Category: European Markets

Hanging by a Single Horsehair
Significant problems lie ahead for our new President and Congress.

By Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst
11/11/2008 3:30:00 PM

Fear and greed. The human predilection for cyclic, emotional progression and the basis of the Elliott Wave Principle. We are up to our necks in the fear side of the cycle, and for plenty of good reasons. The Sword of Damocles was only hanging by a single horsehair.  Just how much weight can that horsehair support?  

Filed Under: U.S. Treasuries, gross domestic product (GDP), credit default swaps, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

Struggling To Stay Alive in the Credit Default Swamp

By Susan C. Walker
10/3/2008 4:30:00 PM

The most famous line delivered by Pogo was, "We have met the enemy, and he is us." That sentiment perfectly captures what the muck-a-mucks on Wall Street should be thinking as they look around the financial landscape and realize that the credit default swaps they purchased as insurance against their risky securities bets have all blown up.

Filed Under: credit default swaps

Category: U.S. Economy

Hedge Funds Headed for Same Fate as Day Traders – But Bigger

By Susan C. Walker
5/21/2008 11:00:00 AM

While a failure in the swaps market could crush many hedge funds that deal in them, Elliott Wave International's Bob Prechter sees an even more basic reason why they will ultimately come to a bad end – that's because they're not really hedgers, they are merely buyers

Filed Under: hedge funds, credit crisis, credit default swaps, Bear Stearns

Category: Classic Prechter

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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.