Bonds: How Will They Do in a Deflation?

Investors got burned twice over the past few years: first it was the drop in the stock market, then in commodities in 2008. So now they are piling into bonds. How will that turn out?

Hyperinflation Worries Laid to Rest, Part II
There is one major difference between Zimbabwe and the U.S.

In Part II of this article, EWI's Jason Farkas explains further why hyperinflation in the U.S. is likely not something we should worry about over the next few years -- and what signs to look for when it does become a real threat.

Hyperinflation Worries Laid to Rest, Part I
There is one major difference between Zimbabwe and the U.S.

The situation in the U.S. situation is different from bouts with hyperinflation in Argentina, Mexico and Brazil. It also seems reasonable to examine hyperinflation in another nation -- Zimbabwe -- in order to answer a few important questions...

10.2% Unemployment Today on the Way to 33% Tomorrow

As bad as that unemployment level is now, the upcoming bear market and accompanying deflationary depression will make it worse, says Bob Prechter. Here's why.

No Slave To Fashion
It's the lack of monetary enforcement that will likely save Europe from overspending.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has proven throughout this financial crisis that he is his own man when it comes to navigating the euro-land banking system through the deflation and debt deleveraging storm. And will likely save Europe from overspending.

New Edition of Bob Prechter's Conquer the Crash Now Available

The second edition of Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash includes 188 new pages of real-time commentary on markets and the mounting prospects for deflation -- rather than inflation -- to become the true threat to the U.S. economy. It includes the entire original edition, word for word, which is as relevant as the day it first published.

15 Forecasts That Came True -- and More to Come
Conquer the Crash 2nd Edition Available for Pre-Order Now

Treasuries, US Dollar Not Dead Yet
Another look at why it's still too early to write off the greenback.

An increasingly loud chorus of investors expects the imminent demise of the US dollar and US Treasuries. They also expect that an exploding monetary base and the US’s structural problems will lead to massive inflation. This opinion may prove to be correct in the very long run, but evidence continues to mount that deflationary will come first.

Believe It Or Not, In Defense of the Dollar
The fact is, there are no good alternatives to the U.S. dollar.

Inflation? Disinflation? In Your Dreams
Round two of deflation is heading this way.

On October 1, the U.S Treasuries zoomed upward as the DJIA saw its first material decline in six months. In percentage terms, the Dow's decline was insignificant -- yet bonds had one of their best single-day rallies since the summer low. Why is this important? Here's why...

The One Strategy Left to Debt-Holders

Unfortunately, no one knows exactly which IOUs are worth less or by how much. The Treasury and the Fed have been giving privileged holders of ruined debt stunning, unearned boons.

Illusion of Control: The Fed, Stock Market and Economy
People who say the Fed controls inflation and deflation miss this key point: social mood.

Hyper-inflation?
Or deflation.

Unemployment figures are improving.  The housing market is showing signs of life.  The stimulus package seems to be working.  And the Fed maintains that the downturn appears to have hit bottom.  So what’s not to like?

Deflation: Why Are Central Banks Failing?
In the battle of inflation and deflation, deflation still has the upper hand.

Most conventional economists vigorously dismissed the very idea of deflation just a couple of years ago, but now it' a global reality. Just like the Federal Reserve Bank here in the U.S., overseas central banks have used the "quantitative easing" policy to stop deflation. And just like in the U.S., something is not quite working. Why?

Does This Look Like INFLATION To You? We Didn't Think So

Is it time to pin on those Whip Inflation Now buttons once again? According to many mainstream experts, the answer is YES. They're leading the charge for a "WIN 2" campaign in the United States, and filling the financial airwaves with references to the 1970's oil crisis, wage freezes, and wheelbarrows full of cash.

Everything Rises and Falls Together in All-the-Same-Market Index

Many investors and their financial managers have come to the same shocking conclusion over the past year: that the tried-and-true method of spreading assets around in different markets to avoid risk no longer works.

Deflating the Inflationists' Arguments

You can talk about inflation all you want, but Bob Prechter says it the best: "YOu can't beat deflation in a credit-based system."

Cash IS King After All, Investors Discover
Too bad for them that they are only discovering it now.

The returns on cash and cash equivalents -- such as U.S. Treasury bills -- have been more than "minuscule." As Elliott Wave International's president Robert Prechter told Barron's in a recent interview, "Cash has been good. Today you can buy twice the house, twice the stock shares and twice the gasoline that you could a short while ago." And as for T-bills...

Europe: Will a Record Fiscal "Injection" Save the Stock Market?
"You can’t tell the market what you will or won’t accept. It tells you."

The European Central Bank made a record "liquidity injection" into Europe's money markets this week. Will it help turn things around? Before you say yes, read this insightful comment by Robert Prechter, EWI's founder and president.

More Inflation: The Easiest Call on the Planet

Despite the impressive brain power behind some financial gurus' calls for hyperinflation,  Elliott Wave International maintains the opposite opinion: that the world’s financial system is in the early stages of the greatest deflation ever.