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EURUSD Drops Below 1.30... Why, Again?
Wave analysis works because it helps you track the waves of the market's crowd psychology, which unfold in predictable patterns.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/16/2013 4:30:00 PM

It's official: The euro zone economy has now been in the longest recession since the EUR was introduced in 1999. That news hit the wires on May 15. No wonder EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, fell that day as the U.S. dollar took the upper hand. But let's take a look at what happened from an Elliott wave perspective...

Filed Under: currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, eurozone, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: Post-Fed, Post-ECB Market Insight

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/3/2013 5:00:00 PM

Our May 1 story "EURUSD: The First Shoe Drops" said that the world's most-popular forex pair was about to turn lower, after finishing a 5-wave upward move. EURUSD topped the same day at 1.3243, and since then has lost about 200 pips -- so far...

Filed Under: currency, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: The First Shoe Drops
The Fed statement on Wednesday disappointed some, but Elliott waves have stayed a step ahead.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/1/2013 4:45:00 PM

Gotta love "the Fed talk" -- as in, the central bank's statement on Wednesday afternoon: "The committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its (bond) purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes." Let's translate that...

 

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), forex, forex trading, quantitative easing, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: Big Week Ahead
Will the euro rally or fall on the news from the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/29/2013 5:15:00 PM

Two news stories from Europe hit the headlines Monday morning (Apr. 29). One: Italy finally ended its political chaos and swore in the new government. Two: The eurozone economic confidence fell more than expected. EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most traded forex market, rose on Monday. But pretend for a second that you didn't know that. Try this instead...

Filed Under: consumer confidence, currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, eurozone, forex, forex trading, Traders, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Forex: Don't Write Off The Euro Just Yet
"We all know the euro is going lower," is today's popular sentiment. Yet Elliott waves suggest there is hope for the euro yet.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/28/2013 4:00:00 PM

Despite the "success" of the Cyprus bailout, the sentiment towards the euro zone currency, the euro, has been negative. EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, fell to a new low for 2013. But while "everyone knows the euro is going lower," read this recent tweet by EWI's senior currency strategist...

Filed Under: bailouts, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, European debt crisis, eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Market Insight: Euro Hits New Low for 2013
EURUSD may be close to a pivotal point -- and a rare opportunity.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/25/2013 6:00:00 PM

On Sunday night (Eastern time, March 24), EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate and the world's most-traded forex market, saw a lot of volatility. The euro first fell 50 pips, then jumped 100, then fell hard again. Without a doubt, these gyrations looked chaotic to many forex observers. Yet we are proud to say ...

Filed Under: bailouts, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar, volatility

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: DJIA Up, Euro Down... Hmm
What should you make of the fact that EURUSD failed to "respond" to the rally in U.S. stocks?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/26/2013 6:30:00 PM

You may have noticed that on most days, the euro-dollar exchange rate and U.S. stocks have been moving in unison. When EURUSD goes up (stronger euro, weaker U.S. dollar), the DJIA is usually up, too. Take a look at this chart comparing EURUSD and the DJIA over the past year...

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, forex, forex trading, S&P 500, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: At a 6-Week Low
The weakness in EURUSD did not start AFTER the Fed's minutes were released

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/21/2013 10:45:00 PM

On Wednesday and Thursday of this week (Feb. 20 and 21), the world's most-traded forex market lost almost 300 points (or pips). The drop in the euro (and the U.S. dollar rally) has been widely attributed to two factors...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies


EURUSD vs. GBPUSD: An Interesting Divergence
And one that may be coming to an end soon.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/19/2013 10:45:00 PM

While EURUSD has spent most of 2013 rising, GBPUSD spent all of this year in a steady decline. That might seem strange, considering that both forex pairs measure the strength of the U.S. dollar against two key currencies from the same region: Europe. You see this divergence even on the short-term timeframe. For example, on February 19...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Another Day, Another Central Banker Comment?
News stories don't change the trend -- only the collective bias of market participants has that power.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/12/2013 3:00:00 PM

"Do news headlines change your Elliott wave counts?" We get this question a lot. The short answer is, no. You see, despite what almost everyone believes, we know from three decades of experience that the news doesn't change the trend...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Don't Believe the Headlines
The euro fell hard on February 7, but not for the reasons you probably heard about

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/7/2013 2:30:00 PM

On Thursday, Feb. 7, EUR/USD, the most-traded forex pair, fell sharply: a 200-pip loss (two full cents) in less than four hours. The main explanation you'll find in the day's news stories is this: a comment by Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank president, pushed the euro off the cliff. But here's the surprising part ...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, usd/jpy

Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: The Euro Hits an 11-Month High
The euro is trading at an 11-month high, but the move was "in the waves" way before the latest round of positive news from Europe

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/25/2013 6:45:00 PM

On Jan. 25, EUR/USD pushed as high as 1.3480. Predictably, the news said that the euro hit an 11-month high "following a better-than-expected German confidence survey." True, the latest part of the rally did come after the data. But as you see from this chart, the move was "in the waves" way before the latest round of positive news from Europe.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Don't Expect the News to Tell You Where EUR/USD Is Going Next
Retrospective explanations of market moves don't keep you ahead of the trend

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/27/2012 4:45:00 PM

www.elliottwave.com/club/FXCM-USD-Video-12-17-12.aspxOn December 27, EUR/USD shot up as high as $1.3283. Forex news headlines were quick to comment that the euro gained on "the market's appetite for riskier currencies." But after EUR/USD hit that high, it promptly reversed and fell back down to the $1.3200 level, where it had been stuck all week. You may ask: What happened to that "appetite for riskier currencies"? Good question, and here's the answer...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Why Did the U.S. Dollar Fall on Friday?
Looking at the day's economic reports, you could argue that the U.S. dollar should have gained: After all, the numbers were "positive"...

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/14/2012 5:00:00 PM

Friday morning (December 14) saw sleepy trading in EUR/USD, the euro-U.S. dollar exchange rate and the world's most-traded forex pair. To be exact, EUR/USD had gone nowhere but sideways since about noon the day before. But then, around 9:30 a.m. on Friday, EUR/USD shot straight up...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, forex, forex trading, fundamental analysis, inflation, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Why 3 Waves Down Meant It Was Time to Go UP
While most forex traders watch the news, a small minority watches Elliott wave chart patterns -- and stays ahead of the curve.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/11/2012 9:30:00 PM

On Friday, December 7, the U.S. dollar continued its 3-day winning streak and pushed EUR/USD below 1.2900. Said the mainstream forex observers...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Don't Blame Mario Draghi
Why the head of the European Central Bank is "not guilty" of the December 6 drop in the euro

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/6/2012 5:15:00 PM

"A corrective rebound in EUR/USD should set the stage for another round of USD strength," wrote on December 5 the editor of EWI's Currency Specialty Service, Jim Martens, on his Twitter feed ‏(@FX_ElliottWave). The next day...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Sometimes, the Basics Are All You Need
At its core, Elliott wave analysis is about recognizing patterns on a price chart

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/3/2012 3:45:00 PM

How do you analyze the markets using the Elliott Wave Principle? At its core, it's about recognizing patterns on a price chart. Ready to give it a shot? Here's an idealized completed Elliott wave pattern...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Market Insight: EUR/USD Falls. Is the Euro Rally Over?
Elliott wave analysis helps you know the trend before the news

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/26/2012 5:00:00 PM

Right now, forex traders the world over are waiting for the outcome of two events deemed -- by fundamental analysts -- to be very important for the next move in the U.S. dollar and the euro: the "fiscal cliff" negotiations in the United States and the meeting of European finance chiefs on a new aid measure for Greece. At the other end of the analytical spectrum...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, Greek debt, technical indicators, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: "Too Far, Too Fast"
How Elliott wave ending diagonal pattern helps you forecast a change in trend

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/21/2012 2:45:00 PM

Mid-day on November 20, the editor of EWI's forex-focused Currency Specialty Service, Jim Martens, posted this on his EWI Forex Insider Twitter feed: "EUR/USD made a new high, but overlapping rise from 1.2765 warns rally has gone "too far, too fast." (Think: What wave pattern does that?)" The Elliott wave pattern Jim was hinting at was an ending diagonal. Here's why...

Filed Under: diagonal, diagonal triangle, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, forex, forex trading, trading lessons, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Forex Trading: How to Pick the Right Opportunity
Most popular currency pairs aren't necessarily where the best opportunities are.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/13/2012 4:30:00 PM

By volume, EUR/USD and USD/JPY are the two most actively traded currency pairs in the forex market. GBP/USD is third, with EUR/JPY generally fourth. Forex traders have their favorites.Of course, today's online trading platforms allow you to trade just about any forex pair out there. But why would you want to deviate from the "big four"? Here's why...

 

Filed Under: Elliott wave, euro/USD exchange rate, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, Japanese yen, sterling, technical analysis, technical indicators, trade targets, trading lessons

Category: Currencies


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.