Elliott Wave InternationalmyEWISocioniomics.Net

One Sentiment Gauge in Europe Reaches Epic Proportion
A visual history of complacency and fear as seen by the 10-year spread over German Bunds

By Nico Isaac
4/24/2014 2:00:00 PM

You never truly prepare for the worst until you experience it first-hand. Then, and only then, do you go above and beyond to protect your health and welfare. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the world of finance. Here is a real-world example...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, euro, europe, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone, financial forecast, forecasts, risk appetite, sentiment

Category: European Markets

(Video) Russia, Under the Influence of Elliott Waves
Another European country is flashing a similar setup to what we saw in Russian stocks at the 2011 top

By Nico Isaac
3/31/2014 3:45:00 PM

In 2013 and now into 2014, those invested in Russia may be feeling the urge to drown their sorrows. And now, another European naton is flashing a similar setup.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, emerging markets, europe, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, forecasts, market forecasts, video, Video - FRUP

Category: European Markets

(Video) Greece, and Now Ukraine: The Fallacy of Efficient Markets
How to unlearn one of the most important lessons of your financial education

By Nico Isaac
3/17/2014 4:45:00 PM

Every day, you see evidence against the theory of news-driven markets; i.e. negative news causes prices to fall, while positive news spurs rallies. One example stands out from recent history: the summer of 2012, Greece. (And now, Ukraine?)

Filed Under: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), euro, europe, european markets, eurozone, Greek debt, video, Video - Featured, Video - FRUP

Category: European Markets

(Video) EURUSD: How Watching Market Psychology Can Help You Time the Market
We look at the euro to understand how Elliott wave patterns in price charts reflect the struggle between the bulls and bears

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/6/2014 11:00:00 PM

Two economic reports hit the newswires Thursday morning (March 6). Both were important, yet each one had the opposite implication for the trend. The market chose one report over the other, and the question is, why -- and what can we learn from that?

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, european central bank, European Union (EU), eurozone, forex, forex trading, Interest Rates, U.S. dollar, video, Video - Featured

Category: Currencies

(Video) The Crisis in Ukraine: What’s Next?
Social mood is another term for the shared inclination of a society. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a dramatic example of social mood in action.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/3/2014 4:30:00 PM

For 3 years, Russia’s stock market has been drifting lower. Here is why that’s important to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Filed Under: authoritarianism, Bear market, debt crisis, deflation, Elliott wave, emerging markets, europe, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, investment strategy, social mood, video, Video - Featured

Category: European Markets

Financial and Cultural Trends Tend to Correlate
Manias have come and gone across the centuries

By Bob Stokes
12/19/2013 5:15:00 PM

Cultural trends tend to correlate with financial trends. Human nature doesn't change. Cultural crazes have appeared throughout the centuries.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, europe, mania, wisdom of crowds

Category: Classic Prechter

Elliott Wave Analysis: Pound for Pound
GBP/USD surged on Wednesday after a Bank of England statement. But there is more to the story.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/13/2013 5:15:00 PM

At a recent office meeting here at EWI headquarters to discuss computer system upgrades, one of our intraday forex analysts made this humble request: "Could we have a feature that tells us tomorrow’s closing numbers for each market?" Ha ha.

Filed Under: Bank of England, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, europe, financial forecast, forex, forex trading, Interest Rates, investor psychology, sterling, technical analysis, trade targets

Category: Currencies

EUR/USD: Why the Fast, Sudden Selloff?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/7/2013 3:15:00 PM

The European Central Bank cuts interest rates. The euro plunges. Logical? Yes. Plausible? Sure. But there is another explanation for the EUR/USD selloff on November 7.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, european central bank, eurozone, forex, forex trading, inflation, Interest Rates, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies

(VIDEO) What is the Debt Situation in Europe and the U.S.?
Insight from Steve Hochberg

By Editorial Staff
10/24/2013 1:45:00 PM

In this video clip from Steve Hochberg’s “Don’t Get Caught Holding the Bag” presentation, recorded at the San Francisco MoneyShow, Elliott Wave International’s Chief Market Analyst addresses a popular question we get at EWI.

Filed Under: debt, debt crisis, europe, steve hochberg, video

Category: Stocks

Hey, FTSE 100 Pundits, Take a (Rate) Hike
Many believe that there’s a consistent correlation between a rise in bank rates and a fall in the Footsie – but it’s not so

By Nico Isaac
8/15/2013 6:45:00 PM

When the FTSE 100 plunged in its biggest single-day drop in two months on August 15, the usual experts looked no further than the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street, otherwise known as the Bank of England. More specifically, when the Bank of England increases interest rates, the Footsie falls; ergo, a rate cut triggers a FTSE rally. Right?

Filed Under: Bank of England, europe, european markets, financial forecast, FTSE, Interest Rates, monetary policy

Category: European Markets

The June Funk in Europe's Junk Bond Market
How our analysis prepared for the selloff.

By Nico Isaac
7/15/2013 5:45:00 PM

Q1 of 2013. At the time, investor interest in all things high-yielding was moving at a swifter clip than Stephen Strasburg's fastball. But then came June. Europe's junk bond market strikes out as high-yield bond issuance goes from a record inflow to a record outflow. And, the cost of insuring European corporate bonds against losses embarks on a five-week-long uptrend -- its longest rising streak in two years.


Filed Under: europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone, Greek debt, junk bonds, world central banks

Category: European Markets

The FTSE's Fall: Will It Be Just a Footnote? (Update)
Only those who saw the beginning of the move can identify its end

By Nico Isaac
6/20/2013 12:45:00 PM

In late May, the media frenzy over the FTSE 100's uptrend was akin to commotion over Kate Middleton's (the Duchess of Cambridge) baby bump. And while the the royal heir's gender was still unknown, the mainstream financial experts were pretty darn certain about the stock market's identity – a bouncing baby bull.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, europe, european markets, financial forecast, FTSE, fundamental analysis, momentum

Category: European Markets

UK Banks: Back on Solid Ground?
Our chart of the FTSE 350 Banks Index is only the beginning of the discussion

By Nico Isaac
6/7/2013 3:15:00 PM

In May 2013, Britain's top five banks announced that they will meet capital levels required by the Bank of England without having to sell shares. "This is confirmation that the capital debate is over," began one news source. "The funding problem in the UK is over." So, are they right?

Filed Under: Bank of England, banks, Elliott wave, europe, financial forecast, FTSE

Category: European Markets

A Wall-to-Wall Selloff in European Bourses
European Short Term Update used Elliott wave analysis to anticipate the reversal

By Nico Isaac
5/23/2013 4:15:00 PM

On Thursday, May 23, the ticker tape of European stock markets resembled the jumbotron scale on the weight-loss reality TV show The Biggest Loser -- one triple-digit number after another. Unlike the TV show, however, the sharp stock market declines were not a sign of improving health. According to one news report, brokers across the pond went on a 24-hour damage control assuring their "investors to keep calm, carry on, and don't panic."

Filed Under: CAC40, DAX, Elliott wave, euro stoxx 50, europe, european markets, eurozone, FTSE, Nikkei, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: European Markets

EURUSD Drops Below 1.30... Why, Again?
Wave analysis works because it helps you track the waves of the market's crowd psychology, which unfold in predictable patterns.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/16/2013 4:30:00 PM

It's official: The euro zone economy has now been in the longest recession since the EUR was introduced in 1999. That news hit the wires on May 15. No wonder EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, fell that day as the U.S. dollar took the upper hand. But let's take a look at what happened from an Elliott wave perspective...

Filed Under: currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, eurozone, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies

As with "Madame Deficit," Heads May Roll During the Next Economic Crisis
The blame game will get serious.

By Bob Stokes
5/6/2013 5:15:00 PM

Marie Antoinette had been a spendthrift early in her reign, but curtailed that habit when she learned what the public thought. Even so, the young French queen had already been nicknamed "Madame Deficit." French debt had ballooned before she and King Louis XVI took the throne. But they received the blame for France's financial straits. Now fast forward to the U.S. economy today. Get ready for the blame game to turn serious.

Filed Under: deficit, economic indicators, Elliott wave, europe, history, Robert Prechter, sentiment, social mood, Sovereign Debt

Category: U.S. Economy

The UK Avoids Recession. Proof Positive of Recovery?
And why taking the experts at their word may not be the safest decision.

By Nico Isaac
4/25/2013 5:00:00 PM

In the morning hours of April 25, the UK financial community was a picture of Hunger Games-like angst. Huddled masses stood around the Office for National Statistics, waiting nervously to hear whether the name -- Britain -- would be drawn to participate in a highly dreaded recession.  

Filed Under: credit crisis, europe, european markets, financial forecast, FTSE, great depression, recession, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: European Markets

Cyprus Banking Bailout: Costs Rise, Heads Roll
The officials and experts who didn't see the crisis coming were supposed to prevent it in the first place.

By Nico Isaac
4/16/2013 5:00:00 PM

The cost of the Cyprus bailout seems to get bigger every week. It has gone from 10€ to 17€ and now to 23€ billion euros. What's more, recent reports say the island nation will need a bigger bake sale to raise the necessary funds to foot the growing bill. On April 12, rumors swirled that the European Central Bank will force Cyprus to liquidate half-a-billion dollars of its gold reserves.

Filed Under: bailouts, banks, central banks, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, eurozone, financial forecast

Category: European Markets

Short-Term Euro Memory Loss
.. And long-term euro calls from EWI's European Financial Forecast

By Nico Isaac
4/1/2013 5:15:00 PM

Recently I watched "Memento," the excellent movie about a man with retrograde amnesia who tries to solve his wife's murder. The protagonist has about 30 seconds to write down new clues on scraps of paper -- or in some cases tattoo those clues onto his body -- before his short-term memory completely fails. 

Filed Under: central banks, currency, Elliott wave, euro, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone, U.S. dollar

Category: European Markets

Forex: Don't Write Off The Euro Just Yet
"We all know the euro is going lower," is today's popular sentiment. Yet Elliott waves suggest there is hope for the euro yet.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/28/2013 4:00:00 PM

Despite the "success" of the Cyprus bailout, the sentiment towards the euro zone currency, the euro, has been negative. EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, fell to a new low for 2013. But while "everyone knows the euro is going lower," read this recent tweet by EWI's senior currency strategist...

Filed Under: bailouts, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, European debt crisis, eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies

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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.