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Mario Draghi Speaks -- and EURUSD Falls? Not So Fast
"It's market psychology that matters, not the news."

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/16/2014 1:00:00 PM

Here are tweets that Jim Martens, editor of our Currency Pro Service, posted on his EWI Forex Insider on Monday (April 14)...

Filed Under: deflation, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, eurozone, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, inflation, stimulus package, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


(Video) Why Europe’s Consumer Recovery Story is Just an Illusion
And “the man behind the curtain” is the European Central Bank

By Nico Isaac
4/14/2014 4:00:00 PM

Human mind is made of pliable stuff, willing to bend -- and believe the impossible. How many people believe, for instance, that monetary policy can reverse the course of economic decline -- even though no such power is actually proven to exist?

Filed Under: bailouts, eu, euro, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, Interest Rates, video, Video - Featured

Category: European Markets


This Chart Will Convince You That Elliott Waves Are Real
Here is one way to stay ahead of the yield curve

By Editorial Staff
4/7/2014 5:30:00 PM

How much businesses and consumers pay to borrow money affects the economy. But how do you know where bond yields (and, by extension, central bank interest rates and mortgage rates) are going?

Filed Under: central banks, deflation, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, eu, european central bank, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Fibonacci, financial forecast, futures trading, Interest Rates, technical analysis, Treasury bonds, treasury yields, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries

Category: Interest Rates


EURUSD: Don’t Be a “Reactive” Trader
First you wait for the news. Then you try to interpret what it means for the market. And only THEN -- you act?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/7/2014 3:30:00 PM

Please take a look at these fresh headlines -- copied from several major news sources. What would you say is common to all of them? Exactly...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, fundamental analysis, Interest Rates, online trading, technical analysis, trade targets, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: Steady as She Goes

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/2/2014 3:00:00 PM

On Tuesday, we wrote that EURUSD was flashing signs of a trend change. Next, the euro did this...

Filed Under: currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, european central bank, forex, forex trading, online trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


(Video) EURUSD: How Watching Market Psychology Can Help You Time the Market
We look at the euro to understand how Elliott wave patterns in price charts reflect the struggle between the bulls and bears

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/6/2014 11:00:00 PM

Two economic reports hit the newswires Thursday morning (March 6). Both were important, yet each one had the opposite implication for the trend. The market chose one report over the other, and the question is, why -- and what can we learn from that?

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, european central bank, European Union (EU), eurozone, forex, forex trading, Interest Rates, U.S. dollar, video, Video - Featured

Category: Currencies


Forex FreeWeek Is ON! Join in for Instant Access
Now through Wed., Feb. 19, test-drive our FX-focused Currency Pro Service 100% free

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/12/2014 1:00:00 PM

Now through Feb. 19, get total access to EWI's new forecasts for 11 most-traded FX pairs -- 100% freeWe call this rare event FreeWeek. Join in and invite your friends!

Filed Under: currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, european markets, eurozone, forex, forex trading, Japanese yen, online trading, sterling, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, usd/jpy, video

Category: Currencies


The Chart Shows Why European Central Bank Is Losing Fight with Deflation
Greece reports highest deflation since monthly records began – and there is more to the story

By Bob Stokes
12/31/2013 3:45:00 PM

The European Central Bank recently slashed its main refinancing rate, but almost no one wants the virtually free money. See a chart that shows the failure of the ECB's cheap credit policy.

Filed Under: deflation, economic depression, Elliott wave, european central bank, European debt crisis, Greek debt, soverign debt crisis

Category: European Markets


EUR/USD: Why the Fast, Sudden Selloff?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/7/2013 3:15:00 PM

The European Central Bank cuts interest rates. The euro plunges. Logical? Yes. Plausible? Sure. But there is another explanation for the EUR/USD selloff on November 7.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, european central bank, eurozone, forex, forex trading, inflation, Interest Rates, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


The June Funk in Europe's Junk Bond Market
How our analysis prepared for the selloff.

By Nico Isaac
7/15/2013 5:45:00 PM

Q1 of 2013. At the time, investor interest in all things high-yielding was moving at a swifter clip than Stephen Strasburg's fastball. But then came June. Europe's junk bond market strikes out as high-yield bond issuance goes from a record inflow to a record outflow. And, the cost of insuring European corporate bonds against losses embarks on a five-week-long uptrend -- its longest rising streak in two years.

 

Filed Under: europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone, Greek debt, junk bonds, world central banks

Category: European Markets


EURUSD: Post-Fed, Post-ECB Market Insight

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/3/2013 5:00:00 PM

Our May 1 story "EURUSD: The First Shoe Drops" said that the world's most-popular forex pair was about to turn lower, after finishing a 5-wave upward move. EURUSD topped the same day at 1.3243, and since then has lost about 200 pips -- so far...

Filed Under: currency, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: The First Shoe Drops
The Fed statement on Wednesday disappointed some, but Elliott waves have stayed a step ahead.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/1/2013 4:45:00 PM

Gotta love "the Fed talk" -- as in, the central bank's statement on Wednesday afternoon: "The committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its (bond) purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes." Let's translate that...

 

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), forex, forex trading, quantitative easing, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: Big Week Ahead
Will the euro rally or fall on the news from the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/29/2013 5:15:00 PM

Two news stories from Europe hit the headlines Monday morning (Apr. 29). One: Italy finally ended its political chaos and swore in the new government. Two: The eurozone economic confidence fell more than expected. EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most traded forex market, rose on Monday. But pretend for a second that you didn't know that. Try this instead...

Filed Under: consumer confidence, currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, eurozone, forex, forex trading, Traders, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Cyprus Banking Bailout: Costs Rise, Heads Roll
The officials and experts who didn't see the crisis coming were supposed to prevent it in the first place.

By Nico Isaac
4/16/2013 5:00:00 PM

The cost of the Cyprus bailout seems to get bigger every week. It has gone from 10€ to 17€ and now to 23€ billion euros. What's more, recent reports say the island nation will need a bigger bake sale to raise the necessary funds to foot the growing bill. On April 12, rumors swirled that the European Central Bank will force Cyprus to liquidate half-a-billion dollars of its gold reserves.

Filed Under: bailouts, banks, central banks, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, eurozone, financial forecast

Category: European Markets


Short-Term Euro Memory Loss
.. And long-term euro calls from EWI's European Financial Forecast

By Nico Isaac
4/1/2013 5:15:00 PM

Recently I watched "Memento," the excellent movie about a man with retrograde amnesia who tries to solve his wife's murder. The protagonist has about 30 seconds to write down new clues on scraps of paper -- or in some cases tattoo those clues onto his body -- before his short-term memory completely fails. 

Filed Under: central banks, currency, Elliott wave, euro, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone, U.S. dollar

Category: European Markets


Cyprus, the Euro – and Elliott Waves
How will the forex market react to the details of the Cyprus bailout plan when the agreement is finally reached?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/22/2013 4:45:00 PM

Right now, the number one forex story is the banking crisis in Cyprus. Cyprus is part of the European Union, so it shares the euro with the rest of the EU. We could speculate on how the outcome of the bailout deal might affect the euro, but our forte is wave analysis and other supporting technical indicators. So let's take a look.

Filed Under: bailouts, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, eu, euro, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, European Union (EU), forex, forex trading, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Has the European Central Bank Defeated the Sovereign Debt Crisis Once and For All?
A three-paneled chart reveals whether the critical precondition for recovery, consumer borrowing, is underway in Europe.

By Nico Isaac
3/21/2013 5:15:00 PM

The conventional wisdom would have to agree. Every polled financial pundit from here to the Hellenic Republic insists that – while not totally out of the woods – the worst of the eurozone economic crisis is in the rearview. The universally recognized date for the Continent’s exact turning point is July 2012. That’s when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi tossed his tie over his shoulder to verbally put the naysayers in their place

Filed Under: central banks, debt crisis, euro, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone, liquidity, soverign debt crisis

Category: European Markets


EURUSD: Draghi Speaks, Euro Rises?
This Elliott wave pattern saw the rally coming before Mr. Draghi ever spoke

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/7/2013 9:45:00 PM

On Thursday (Mar. 7), the European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, made headlines with an optimistic statement that, "Later in 2013 economic activity should gradually recover..." The euro gained and pushed EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, as high as 1.3117. But as it's often the case, the rally was "in the waves" before the news. Take a look at this chart...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, europe, european central bank, European Union (EU), eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, trendlines, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Europe: The Epicenter of a Global Economic Earthquake
Will economic optimism be dashed once again?

By Bob Stokes
2/22/2013 4:45:00 PM

A big economic story can go underreported for only so long. Eventually it will show up in mainstream news headlines – a likely case in point is the euro zone's developing deflationary trend. The evidence suggests that Europe could be the epicenter of the next global economic earthquake.

Filed Under: bailouts, brian whitmer, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, european central bank, European debt crisis, European Union (EU), eurozone, Robert Prechter, world central banks

Category: Global Markets


EUR/USD: Another Day, Another Central Banker Comment?
News stories don't change the trend -- only the collective bias of market participants has that power.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/12/2013 3:00:00 PM

"Do news headlines change your Elliott wave counts?" We get this question a lot. The short answer is, no. You see, despite what almost everyone believes, we know from three decades of experience that the news doesn't change the trend...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.