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Interest Rates: Think Central Banks in Control? Think Again.
What do the Fed, European Central Bank and Reserve Bank of Australia have in common? Answer: They don't control interest rates.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
8/18/2009 10:45:00 AM

If you believe that central banks' "potent directors" carefully watch economic indicators and deftly adjust interest rates accordingly, this will come as a shock: Central banks are no more in control of interest rates than they are of the weather. Three examples prove this point.

Filed Under: interest rates, Federal Reserve, european central bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S. Treasury bills, central banks
Category: Interest Rates


Europe: Will a Record Fiscal "Injection" Save the Stock Market?
"You can’t tell the market what you will or won’t accept. It tells you."

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/25/2009 12:30:00 PM

The European Central Bank made a record "liquidity injection" into Europe's money markets this week. Will it help turn things around? Before you say yes, read this insightful comment by Robert Prechter, EWI's founder and president.

Filed Under: european central bank, liquidity injection, Federal Reserve, social mood, prechter, deflation
Category: European Markets


A Bucket of Sand for ECB's Jean-Claude Trichet
What's in store for the European Union in 2009?

by Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst
1/29/2009 3:30:00 PM

Pliny the Elder, a Roman military commander and philosopher, was a busy and intelligent man. His greatest legacy, Naturalis Historia, was one of the largest written works to have survived to the modern day in its original format. To this day two items from that book remain in our everyday lexicon. And as I watch the actions of Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), all I can think of is Pliny the Elder's remarks...

Filed Under: european central bank, ECB, british pound, u.s. dollar, euro zone, Trichet, Ireland, Greece, Poland, Hungary, spain, switzerland, italy
Category: European Markets


European Credit Crisis: Disaffirmation
Anyone on this list is fully engaged in disaffirmation.

by Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst
8/7/2008 4:45:00 PM

It’s bad already. And it’s getting worse. Still, there are many who just don’t – or won’t – get it. The latter group is usually filled with politicians, too engaged in denial to fully grasp the fiscal and deflationary implications of this credit crisis.

Filed Under: european central bank, interest rates, eurozone, credit, ifo Business Climate, bunds
Category: European Markets


U.S. Dollar Vs. Euro: Expect A Turbulent Thursday
The double whammy of economic news should make for interesting trading on July 3.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
7/1/2008 6:30:00 PM
On Thursday, July 3, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%. That same day, economists expect the U.S. jobs number to show a 60,000 reduction. Question: How would the two events affect the U.S. dollar's standing against other currencies?
Filed Under: european central bank, interest rates, u.s. jobs report, euro vs. dollar, eurusd, forex, currency traders, Nonfarm Payrolls
Category: Currencies


EURUSD: U.S. Interest Rates Unchanged. Now What?
With the Fed's decision out of the way, what will determine the next move in the EURUSD?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/25/2008 6:15:00 PM

Now that the Federal Reserve left U.S. interest rates unchanged and the U.S. dollar lost on the news, the question is: Was that all of the "pressure" the USD would see, or is there more to come? Here's a chart Elliott Wave International's Currency Specialty Service showed right before the Fed's announcement on June 25...

Filed Under: european central bank, inflation, eurozone, U.S. Dollar Index, interest rates unchanged at 2%, forex, eurusd exchange rate
Category: Currencies


Video (Forex): "Prepare for a Surprising U.S. Dollar Decline"
See how simple Elliott wave techniques can help you bet against the crowd's opinion.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/27/2008 5:30:00 PM

Watch this free video clip EWI's own Jim Martens recorded for his Currency Specialty Service subscribers on May 9. If you remember, at that time, the USD had gained strongly, and rumors were flying that it would gain even more. But watch this video and see how simple Elliott wave techniques can help you bet against the crowd's opinion…

Filed Under: u.s. dollar, oil, Federal Reserve, european central bank, eurusd, euro-dollar, forex
Category: Currencies


Euro Vs. U.S. Dollar: $1.60 And Climbing?
Two reasons why is a very interesting moment for the euro-dollar exchange rate.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/22/2008 5:00:00 PM

Tuesday brought another piece of bad news for the U.S. dollar: For the first time in history, the exchange rate between it and the euro went above one dollar and sixty cents. That, from a standpoint of technical analysis methods (one of which is Elliott wave) is a very interesting moment for the euro-dollar – for two reasons...

Filed Under: euro-dollar exchange rate, round numbers, european central bank, interest rates differentials, eur/usd, forex trading, cable
Category: Currencies


Forex: EUR/USD -- Explain This, Please
Elliott Wave International discusses a strange lack of logic in the recent reaction to the news by the euro/dolalr exchange rate.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/1/2008 12:30:00 PM

Just minutes after the release of a disappointing U.S. employment report last Friday morning (Feb. 1), the U.S. dollar suddenly got stronger and the EUR/USD exchange rate plunged. The fall was fast and deep; by Friday night, the dollar stood over 100 pips stronger against the euro -- despite the morning's bad economic news. Strange? You can say that again. But what happened next was even stranger.

Filed Under: forex, european central bank, hawkish, currency, trade, u.s. employment report, exchange rates, euro, dollar
Category: Currencies


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Announcing EWI's New eBook ...

EWI's New Trading eBook: How to Trade the Highest Probability Opportunities: Price Bars and Chart PatternsIn this exciting new 45-page eBook, Jeffrey Kennedy shows you – using fresh, real-life market examples – how you can use simple, yet powerful, chart reading techniques to improve your trading.

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To access EWI's valuable Q&A message board, all you need is a free Club EWI profile. Create Yours Now >>
> Wars: Do they affect the stock market's Elliott wave patterns? 
> Market manipulation: Can wave patterns detect it?  
> Warren Bufett: Doesn't his latest major purchase boost market mood? 
> George Soros' Reflexivity Theory: Similar to Prechter's socionomics? 
> College tuition: Will it cost more or less in a deflation? 
> Currencies: How do I count Elliott waves between cash and futures? 
> Weekends and trading halts: How do they factor into Elliott wave count? 
> Crisis Part II: Who will people blame if stocks crash again? 
> Socionomics and 'The Wisdom of Crowds': Any connection? 
> Do you know of any mutual funds that use Elliott wave analysis? 

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IN THE MEDIA
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As the markets enter what Bob Prechter calls "the point of recognition," we notice that mainstream media pundits who get it start to notice us, our analysts and our forecasts. You can browse dozens of recent media articles about EWI in the EWI Press Room.
 
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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.