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The Really, REALLY Big Myth About Earnings
Something to consider during this earnings season

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/22/2014 5:30:00 PM

Earnings are out again, and analysts are again talking about the impact on the broad market. With so much emphasis on this "indicator," this next part may come as a shock: The idea of earnings driving the broad trend is a GIANT myth. See for yourself.

Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, buy and hold, earnings, economic indicators, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, S&P 500, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


A Dramatic Set-up for the XLE, the Most Heavily Traded Energy ETF
Energy Pro Service shows you an unfolding new opportunity in the Energy Select Sector SPDR

By Nico Isaac
4/22/2014 5:00:00 PM

At the start of 2014, the XLE was where I am now: laid out in traction. Despite the gloom (isn’t that always how it happens?), from its late January low the XLE made a dramatic comeback -- to its highest level on record, in fact. So, what changed? And what's next?

Filed Under: diagonal, Elliott wave, forecasts, fundamental analysis

Category: Energy


Big Week Ahead for EURUSD

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/21/2014 3:30:00 PM

This should be an eventful week for euro-dollar, the world's most-watched forex market. But not because of the U.S. home sales numbers due out on Tuesday and Wednesday. The real reason is a rare Elliott wave set-up.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, forex, forex trading, fundamental analysis, home sales, housing prices, U.S. dollar, volatility

Category: Currencies


(Video) Gold: Do the Fundamentals Say "Buy"?
Gold's price reflects waves of optimism and pessimism

By Bob Stokes
4/15/2014 4:30:00 PM

Gold's price reflects waves of optimism and pessimism. Even so, many investors look to fundamentals to anticipate gold trends. Learn why there's a better way.

Filed Under: economic indicators, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, Gold, supply and demand, video, Video - Featured

Category: Gold and Silver


EURUSD: Don’t Be a “Reactive” Trader
First you wait for the news. Then you try to interpret what it means for the market. And only THEN -- you act?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/7/2014 3:30:00 PM

Please take a look at these fresh headlines -- copied from several major news sources. What would you say is common to all of them? Exactly...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, fundamental analysis, Interest Rates, online trading, technical analysis, trade targets, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Gold and Silver: The "Cone" of Elliott Wave Analysis
How fundamentals could have distracted you from seeing the metals top on March 17

By Nico Isaac
3/19/2014 12:00:00 PM

On March 14, fundamental analysis experts in precious metals had their sights pinned on two main factors, both with bullish near-term implications. And yet, gold and silver prices are down hard! Here is our take on the situation.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, Gold, silver

Category: Gold and Silver


Crude Oil: After a 5% Gain, a 7% Loss?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/17/2014 3:30:00 PM

Crude oil finished February with a bang: a 5% gain for the month! That may have been bad news for U.S. drivers and people needing to heat their homes (which is to say, everyone), but energy investors and traders probably had a good month. The question on their minds was, would the rally continue? If you glance at the news headlines...

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, futures trading, technical analysis, trade targets

Category: Energy


(Video) What If the Devil Divulged Big News Beforehand?
Knowing future news would not help you foresee market trends

By Bob Stokes
3/6/2014 4:30:00 PM

Most investors likely think that news drives the market. The facts and evidence strongly suggest otherwise. Can you look at a stock market chart and and see where one of the 20th century's biggest news events happened?

Filed Under: Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, Robert Prechter, video, Video - Featured

Category: Classic Prechter


(Video) Crude Oil and the Magic Tricks of Fundamentals
Energy Pro Service relies on objective Elliott wave analysis, not the news, to navigate crude oil

By Nico Isaac
2/27/2014 6:00:00 PM

Here's your front row seat to the action that took place at the start of 2014: Crude oil prices were circling the drain of a one-month low. And right there, front and center on the fundamental stage, a huge bearish factor stood baring its razor-sharp teeth -- the largest domestic crude oil production in decades.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, video

Category: Commodities


The New U.S. Jobs Report: What's in the Number? Not Much
You literally can interpret the same fundamental factor as both bullish AND bearish

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/7/2014 10:00:00 AM

On the morning of Friday Feb. 7, the U.S. January unemployment report was supposed to be a big deal for the stock market. If it came in strong, that meant the U.S. economy was doing well. That’s bullish for stocks. Right? Yeah, but hang on.

Filed Under: economic indicators, Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), fundamental analysis, investment strategy, QE2, quantitative easing, S&P 500, stimulus package, technical analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. STOCK MARKET, unemployment

Category: Stocks


Improving Economy is Bullish for Stocks. Right?
Yes, it’s a trick question. Read on to understand why.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/3/2014 10:30:00 AM

Positive economic reports are said to be bullish for the stock market, while negative data are bearish. But is this accurate? What a strange question, you may say -- but please take a look at this chart...

Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), fundamental analysis, investment decisions, investment strategy, investor psychology, quantitative easing, stimulus package, technical analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


Monster Moves in Natural Gas
How EWI's Energy Pro Service helps you navigate volatility in natgas

By Nico Isaac
1/31/2014 6:30:00 PM

Over the past few days, severe weather conditions caught thousands of people in the southern U.S. off guard. Many natural gas speculators know that frustration all too well. Over the same period, wild market moves caught them by surprise, too.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, natural gas

Category: Energy


Stocks Rose, Yet Commodities Fell -- Despite QE. What Does That Mean?
Robert Prechter: "Charts tell the truth. Let’s look at some charts."

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/21/2014 5:30:00 PM

During QE3, the latest round of the Fed's quantitative easing, the stock market rose. We all know that. But did you also know that commodities fell? That’s right: QE3 had zero effect on commodities – or maybe even a negative effect. There is more -- take a look at these charts...

Filed Under: Bear market, Bob Prechter, bull market, commodities, deflation, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, Fibonacci, fundamental analysis, inflation, QE2, stimulus package, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


Gold: Putting a Shine on Recent Declines
Fundamental analysis may give you important macroeconomic background, yet it does not tell you how much further gold might drop, if at all.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/12/2013 3:00:00 PM

Since its latest significant peak at 1361.80 in late October, gold lost as much as 11%. Several fundamental factors have reportedly contributed to the weakness, yet they all fail to tell you how much further the prices might drop, if they drop at all. So, let's turn to Elliott wave analysis, which is uniquely suited to offer additional granularity to macro views.

Filed Under: central banks, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, futures trading, Gold, gold futures, precious metals, technical analysis, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), volatility

Category: Gold and Silver


Why You Should Consider This $5-Trillion-a-Day Market (Part II)
Elliott Wave International's currencies expert discusses the pros and cons of trading forex vs. trading stocks

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/26/2013 3:30:00 PM

This is Part II of the interview with our Senior Currency Strategist, Jim Martens. -- Jim, I've seen online ads that say, "Trading forex is easy." Do you think it's easy? Jim: Easy? No. Easi-er than equities? Yes...

Filed Under: currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), forex, forex trading, fundamental analysis, online trading, sterling, Swiss franc, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), usd/jpy, video, volatility

Category: Currencies


Gold Prices: What’s Behind the $30 Rally?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/15/2013 5:30:00 PM

This was an up week for gold prices. When you look around for the reasons why, you find a lot of interesting stuff -- a.k.a., "the macroeconomic background." For example, did you know that...

Filed Under: economic indicators, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), fundamental analysis, Gold, gold futures, real money, recession, risk appetite, safe haven, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver


How to Analyze Crude Oil When There’s No Data
No government reports? EWI still had access to all the necessary data to anticipate crude oil's September-October sell-off

By Nico Isaac
10/29/2013 7:30:00 PM

According to fundamental analysis of financial markets, the No. 1 cause of a market's price moves is external news events. Possible catalysts range from climate changes to political disruptions. One glaring problem with this setup: What happens on a day when there isn't any news at all to report? How do you know which way a market's prices are going to move?

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis

Category: Energy


Gold: Navigating the Uncertainty
What do you do when market fundamentals appear both bullish and bearish at the same time?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
10/18/2013 12:30:00 PM

"Nobody really understands gold prices, and I don't pretend to understand them either." That’s what the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on July 18. When all you do is look at gold’s fundamentals to gauge the trend, it’s easy to spot the difficulty...

Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), fundamental analysis, Gold, gold futures, trade targets, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver


Why You Should Reject the Idea of Mean Price Reversion
Stock prices spend more time deviating from means than reflecting them

By Bob Stokes
10/14/2013 5:45:00 PM

One aspect of traditional finance theory states that stock market prices tend to revert to a mean. However, EWI has observed that every proposed stock price mean is changing or arbitrary. Learn about the data on stock prices that confirm this point.

Filed Under: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott Wave Principle, fundamental analysis, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, socionomics, stock indexes

Category: Stocks


Hooked on Crude Oil
A real world example of Elliott wave analysis adjusting to the past price action in oil

By Nico Isaac
10/8/2013 5:00:00 PM

One big flaw of mainstream financial analysis is that it uses a specific fundamental bait to hook traders.  Once they are caught, these trout .. I mean, traders … are forced to go wherever the reel draws them in, powerless to resist. The Wave Principle, on the other hand, is founded on a number of key rules and guidelines that enable you to adjust your Elliott wave counts according to current price action.  No letting the hook get set.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Fibonacci, fundamental analysis

Category: Energy


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© 2014 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.