Elliott Wave InternationalmyEWISocioniomics.Net

Lenders and Borrowers "Just Say No" to New Credit
Why low interest rates are not stimulating the economy

By Bob Stokes
5/16/2013 4:30:00 PM

The desire of lenders to lend and of borrowers to borrow has shriveled dramatically. Interest rates have been historically low for years now, yet the economy is barely treading water. History shows that low interest rates are rarely bullish for the economy. Learn why.

Filed Under: conquer the crash, deflation, economic indicators, home sales, Interest Rates

Category: Interest Rates


A Perspective on a Forecast for Dow 18,000
Sound financial decisions are based on sound analysis.

By Bob Stokes
4/10/2013 5:00:00 PM

People who only consider the short-term – or hold an overly narrow point of view – can benefit from the advice to "put things into perspective." Because without perspective, we're certain to repeat the same short-sighted decisions, one after another. In his latest Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter puts the stock market's price pattern into proper perspective. The issue starts with the title, "More Amazing Charts."

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, home sales, investment decisions, Robert Prechter, sentiment

Category: Stocks


The Housing Recovery Rests on an Unstable Foundation
Yale's Robert Shiller says the recent rebound in home prices is "artificial"

By Bob Stokes
3/28/2013 5:30:00 PM

The housing market has gone from financial rubble to what some analysts describe as another bubble. It's true that home prices are still nearly 30% below their mid-2000s peak. Yet the recent surge has Robert Shiller of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index concerned. Learn why.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, all the same market theory, CNBC, commercial real estate, economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, foreclosures, great depression, history, home sales, housing prices, quantitative easing, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy


As Home Equity Lines of Credit Surge, The Low-Interest Rate Trap is Set
Borrowers feel confident about the future

By Bob Stokes
3/12/2013 6:00:00 PM

Americans borrowed roughly $1-trillion against their homes in the decade leading up to the housing bubble burst. That dollar figure remains well above recent home equity loan levels, however, CNBC reports that home equity loans are expected to increase in 2013 as homeowners take advantage of low rates. Will a second wave of price declines in real estate come, just as most homeowners think the market has recovered from the first wave?

Filed Under: CNBC, commercial real estate, deflation, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, foreclosures, home sales, housing prices, Interest Rates, market forecasts

Category: Interest Rates


EURUSD: Story of the Week
Elliott waves in forex markets keep warning you of important trend changes

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/1/2013 3:45:00 PM

Our Senior Currency Strategist, Jim Martens, likes to say that, "You must faith in your analysis method." Here's another example of that. This week, the U.S. dollar strength pushed EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, below $1.30 for the first time in months. The week was rich on economic news. We learned that...

 

Filed Under: consumer confidence, Elections, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, europe, eurozone, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, fundamental analysis, gross domestic product (GDP), home sales, housing prices, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar, unemployment

Category: Currencies


A Harsh Real Estate Lesson Goes Unlearned
Will no money down buyers have to 'KISS' their home goodbye?

By Bob Stokes
2/25/2013 4:30:00 PM

You might think the harsh lesson from the 2007-2009 financial crisis has been thoroughly learned. Think again. Incredibly, no-money-down mortgages have returned. Find out why highly-leveraged real estate investors should be keenly interested in what's around the corner for stocks. The February Elliott Wave Theorist is 120% longer than the standard issue and elaborates on what's likely ahead for the U.S. stock market.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Elliott Wave Theorist, home sales, housing prices, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: U.S. Economy


High-End Real Estate: "The Market is Insane, I've Never Really Seen Anything Like It."
What's ahead for the re-inflation of real estate?

By Bob Stokes
1/25/2013 3:30:00 PM

Second chances don't always present themselves in financial markets. And when opportunities to recoup losses do appear, the psychology of the moment may stop people from taking beneficial actions. Consider the stock market and the recent surge in high-end real estate prices.

Filed Under: CNBC, economic indicators, Elliott wave, herding, home sales, housing prices, investor psychology, mania, stock indexes

Category: U.S. Economy


Why Conventional Stock Analysts Stumble When They Look to the Economy

By Bob Stokes
1/9/2013 5:00:00 PM

It's futile to use the jobless number, gross domestic product, home sales, factory orders, corporate earnings, consumer spending -- or any other economic indicator -- to forecast stocks. Learn why.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, earnings, economic indicators, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, gross domestic product (GDP), home sales, housing prices, market forecasts, social mood, unemployment

Category: U.S. Economy


Real Estate Mania Makes a Comeback
Home bidding wars in Washington D.C.

By Bob Stokes
12/21/2012 5:30:00 PM

In most parts of the country, residential real estate prices remain well below their peak highs. Yet the resurgent bidding wars in some markets suggest that the lesson about bubbles remains unlearned. Will these new, highest-bidder home buyers have the price rug pulled out from under them in the same way buyers did in the mid-2000s?

Filed Under: conquer the crash, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, home sales, housing prices, Robert Prechter, subprime lending

Category: U.S. Economy


Why the Door May Slam Shut on the Residential Real Estate "Rebound"
How the mortgage-crisis still haunts the economy

By Bob Stokes
12/10/2012 4:30:00 PM

A securities lawyer told the New York Times that "We are at an all-time high for mortgage litigation." The lawsuits involve some $1-trillion worth of mortgage-backed securities; banks stand to lose as much as $300-billion. But this "fresh torrent" of mortgage lawsuits against banks is just one headwind that the so-called housing recovery faces. Learn what else may trip up the so called housing "recovery."

Filed Under: economic indicators, Elliott wave, foreclosures, great depression, home sales, housing prices, insurance industry, Interest Rates, subprime lending

Category: U.S. Economy


The Expected Housing Recovery Faces a Brick Wall
Re-emergent house flippers are set to flop.

By Bob Stokes
12/4/2012 4:00:00 PM

Two years before the housing bust became painfully obvious to U.S. homeowners, EWI's publications warned subscribers that the housing market had reached extremes and was about to bust.  Now, lofty expectations for home prices have returned. So have house "flippers." Is it different this time? Is it safe again to speculate in U.S. real estate?

Filed Under: deflation, economic indicators, home sales, housing prices, Magazine Cover Indicator, mania, subprime lending

Category: U.S. Economy


Mutiny on the U.S.S. Borrow and Spend: Why No Captain Can Save This Economic Ship
The downward spiral of deflation has started

By Bob Stokes
8/23/2012 5:15:00 PM

The evidence suggests that a rare deflationary spiral has started. And the end of this process is far from over, regardless of whether the Federal Reserve initiates another round of bond buying or quantitative easing (QE3). Moreover, learn why "another disaster for taxpayers" may be just around the corner...

Filed Under: conquer the crash, consumer price index, consumer spending, debt crisis, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, home sales, quantitative easing, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy


History Has a Lesson for Real Estate Investors Who Think the Bubble is Fully Deflated
The service that forecast the real estate implosion warns of other bubbles

By Bob Stokes
7/16/2012 4:15:00 PM

Remember, real estate turned with lightning speed and accelerated downward. Yet the plunging prices were almost universally unexpected. Other financial asset classes are now sending equally ominous signs of major trend turns...

Filed Under: all the same market theory, commercial real estate, conquer the crash, consumer confidence, debt, deflation, economic depression, Elliott wave, financial forecast, foreclosures, great depression, history, home sales, housing prices, market forecasts, subprime lending

Category: U.S. Economy


Largest City Bankruptcy Ever: Stockton Will Not Be Alone
Too much borrowing and spending will doom other municipalities

By Bob Stokes
6/27/2012 4:30:00 PM

A recent issue of the The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast observes that "Muni investors have so far shrugged off the increased risk of defaults." Complacency is a financially dangerous mind-set right now. The financial dominoes are all lined up, and it appears the invisible finger has just nudged the first domino...

Filed Under: Club EWI, commercial real estate, conquer the crash, debt, deficit, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, home sales, housing prices, municipal bonds, pension funds

Category: U.S. Economy


Strange Recovery
Is it strange in here, or is it just...strange?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/1/2012 4:00:00 PM

Something doesn't feel right. Look at this:

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, consumer confidence, earnings, Elliott wave, home sales, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, social mood, unemployment

Category: U.S. Economy


The Biggest Bubble of All: This One Has Yet to Deflate (Are You Ready?)
More Threatening Than Any Single Economic Sector

By Bob Stokes
4/13/2012 5:15:00 PM

As bubbles balloon in individual sectors of the economy, the psychology of the pre-financial crisis days have returned. That's why it's important to remember that hardly anyone was concerned about the real estate market in 2006. Then the whole house of cards fell in. Now consider the entire global debt market: the biggest bubble of all time...

Filed Under: commercial real estate, credit crisis, debt crisis, deflation, history, home sales, housing prices, Robert Prechter

Category: U.S. Economy


The New Hot Trend in Real Estate: Should You Jump Aboard?
Bulk buying: When one house just isn't enough

By Bob Stokes
3/6/2012 5:45:00 PM

Anyone who bought near the housing mania peak was left holding the bag -- and in the bag was a mortgage that today exceeds the value of the property. Lesson learned? Apparently not...

Filed Under: foreclosures, home sales, housing prices

Category: Real Estate


If the Economy's "Recovering," Why is the Largest-Ever U.S. City Facing Bankruptcy?
What's really going on?

By Bob Stokes
3/5/2012 5:00:00 PM

As pundits chatter about an economic recovery, municipalities are facing bankruptcy - including the largest-ever U.S. city. What's really going on?...

Filed Under: credit rating, debt downgrade, economic depression, foreclosures, home sales, junk bonds, municipal bonds

Category: U.S. Economy


Is This the Right Time to "Invest" in a House?
A look at why people think of a consumption item as an investment.

By Bob Stokes
2/17/2012 5:45:00 PM

As any homeowner knows, one unexpected repair can run into the thousands of dollars. Then there's the maintenance (and other costs) you do expect, which add up to a pretty penny by the end of a given year. On the other hand, homeowners do get tax breaks. But even considering that, is a house or condominium a good investment?...

Filed Under: foreclosures, home sales, housing prices, Robert Prechter

Category: Real Estate


Expensive "Free Lunch" in Real Estate: Two More Shoes to Drop
Is a bottom in home prices anywhere in sight?

By Bob Stokes
1/31/2012 5:45:00 PM

Will the wide swaths of vacant homes now visible in Detroit, Cleveland, Las Vegas and Florida become common elsewhere?...

Filed Under: consumer confidence, deflation, foreclosures, home sales, housing prices

Category: Real Estate


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.