Elliott Wave InternationalmyEWISocioniomics.Net

Higher Housing Prices: Prepare for the Flop to Follow the Flip
Will real estate history repeat?

By Bob Stokes
5/10/2013 5:30:00 PM

The National Association of Realtors reports that home prices are up 11.6% year over year. And that has a new surge of house flippers into the real estate market. If the housing market is poised for another dramatic downturn, almost no one sees it coming.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Bob Prechter, Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, history, housing prices, market crash

Category: U.S. Economy


The Smell of Tulips is in the Air on Wall Street
All manias end below where they started.

By Bob Stokes
4/23/2013 4:45:00 PM

Tulip prices in Holland skyrocketed in the 1630s. A farmhouse was reportedly purchased with three bulbs in 1633. But the peak of Tulip Mania came in the winter of 1636-37 when someone refused to pay top dollar. Is the U.S. stock market a modern day parallel? Learn why the day may be near when one seller and one buyer agree that prices are too high.

Filed Under: bloomberg, Elliott Wave Theorist, history, mania, market crash, South Sea Bubble, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


Triple Top: The S&P 500 Goes Nowhere for 13 Years
Something's got to give, and it likely will.

By Bob Stokes
4/19/2013 4:45:00 PM

Technical analysts describe a triple top formation as a textbook "reversal" pattern. After the third peak, the downward price trend that follows may be steep and break below the two prior lows. If that break occurs, prices could descend into free-fall territory. In his March 2013 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter refers to "the 13-year triple top ... from 2000 to 2013." What's more, this pattern does not stand alone.

Filed Under: Bear market, Bob Prechter, bull market, Elliott Wave Theorist, market crash, S&P 500, technical analysis

Category: Stocks


U.S. Markets and the Transition from Greed to Fear
Prechter: "When this piper gets paid, it's going to be an awesome sight."

By Bob Stokes
4/16/2013 5:45:00 PM

Measuring market greed versus market fear can provide a useful tool for gauging investor sentiment. EWI looks at investor sentiment as well as the market's momentum and price pattern. Altogether, they provide a valuable perspective on whether greed or fear will prevail in the future. Robert Prechter offers his perspective on the market's current juncture.

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, history, market crash, Robert Prechter, sentiment, VIX, Wall Street

Category: Stocks


NASDAQ's 15% Drop in 2000: a Snapshot of Market History or a Picture of its Future?
Is increased stock market volatility just ahead?

By Bob Stokes
3/27/2013 5:15:00 PM

From March to April 2000, the NASDAQ declined 15%. Many investors bought the dip in the months after the peak, but it was only the beginning of a larger decline. In the 2000-2002 price plunge, the technology-heavy index lost a whopping 78%. Do investors today have a similar mindset to the prevailing market psychology of 2000? Recent sentiment measures say "Yes."

 

Filed Under: Bear market, buy and hold, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, history, investor psychology, market crash, Nasdaq Composite, Robert Prechter, sentiment, VIX, volatility

Category: Stocks


A Study of Financial Bubbles Reveals a Remarkable Pattern
Financial manias end below where they started

By Bob Stokes
2/11/2013 4:15:00 PM

The tricky thing about financial bubbles is, even the smartest investors don't know they're in one until it bursts. Isaac Newton was a rare genius as a scientist, yet he decided to invest in the South Sea Bubble (1719-1722) just before it burst. Bob Prechter studied major financial bubbles going back to the year 1600 and made a remarkable observation which may be relevant today.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bob Prechter, conquer the crash, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, history, market crash, sentiment, South Sea Bubble

Category: Stocks


Stock Market Lesson: "Institutional Investors Say a Crash Can't Happen"
Even professional investors can be radically wrong

By Bob Stokes
2/4/2013 4:45:00 PM

Even those who head large financial institutions can be way off the mark with financial assessments. That was the case around the 1929 stock market top and other historical market milestones. Market history may repeat as prominent Wall Street figures sing from the same songbook. Learn why it's an important time to be an independent-minded investor.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, financial forecast, herding, history, investor psychology, mania, market crash, market forecasts, mutual funds, risk management, sentiment, U.S. STOCK MARKET, Wall Street

Category: Stocks


Chaos and the Stock Market May Be Set to Collide
Contemplate what's ahead for the markets BEFORE it happens

By Bob Stokes
1/10/2013 12:45:00 PM

To err is human. This truism is conspicuously true of financial markets -- especially when human error meets the limits of modern technology. Bob Prechter elaborates:

"Trading stocks, options and futures could be extremely problematic during ..."

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CNBC, conquer the crash, Elliott wave, history, liquidity, market crash, market forecasts, risk management, Traders, trading lessons, U.S. STOCK MARKET, VIX, volatility, volume

Category: Stocks


Why "Predicting the Present" Is Not a Forecast
Stock market trend changes are almost always unexpected.

By Bob Stokes
1/7/2013 7:00:00 PM

Most mainstream market forecasts boil down to trend extrapolation. By definition, a forecast describes the future. But all too often, people who try to describe the future do little more than "predict the present." Recent bullish 2013 forecasts from Wall Street may have been voiced on the verge of a major trend change.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, banks, Bob Prechter, Citigroup, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, Goldman Sachs, herding, history, investor psychology, long-term trend, market crash, market forecasts, sentiment, stock indexes, Wall Street

Category: Stocks


The Psychology of Market Tops: "Big Investors Say They Knew Better Than to Overstay"
Market psychology can turn on a dime

By Bob Stokes
10/19/2012 4:15:00 PM

Given the time it takes a financial market to reach a price peak, one might think the decline would be just as gradual. But when fear strikes, investors flee like gazelles at the sight of a lion. Beware of the next...

 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bear market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Principle, investor psychology, market crash, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, Nikkei, South Sea Bubble

Category: Stocks


High-Frequency Trading and the Next Market Panic
Market fear will spread like an out-of-control wildfire

By Bob Stokes
9/26/2012 4:30:00 PM

Even before computers, market fear could pull prices down much faster than optimism pushed them up. Now, imagine modern computer trading speed combined with old-fashioned market fear, like what's described on...

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Bear market, Elliott wave, market crash, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


The Financial Tsunami Headed To Shore Has Been Building for 80 Years
The size of the wave will surprise most everyone

By Bob Stokes
9/24/2012 4:45:00 PM

When forecasters warn "Move to higher ground!" it's not wise to think, "Until I see the tsunami, I won't believe it's coming." Once it's visible, it's probably too late. It's equally unwise to ignore signs of a financial tsunami...
 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Ben Bernanke, conquer the crash, debt crisis, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, history, market crash, quantitative easing, Robert Prechter, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), world central banks

Category: U.S. Economy


Global Economies and World Financial Markets: How the Big Disconnect Will End
Find out what happens when the two meet

By Bob Stokes
9/5/2012 3:45:00 PM

Will the disconnect between global economies and financial markets continue? EWI believes the answer is "no." Overleveraged financial markets will suffer the fate of overleveraged global economies. Keep in mind: The next financial crisis may start outside of America, so more than ever you need to... 
 
 

Filed Under: all the same market theory, ASX All Ordinaries, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, CAC40, DAX, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), economic depression, Elliott wave, emerging markets, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, european markets, financial forecast, Greek debt, Indian markets, market crash, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Nikkei, S&P 500, SENSEX, Shanghai Composite Index, soverign debt crisis, Taiwan index, U.S. STOCK MARKET, world central banks

Category: Global Markets


Warning Sign for the Economy: An Indicator With a History of Calling Major Turns
Why "Easy Street" may soon face a bunch of sinkholes

By Bob Stokes
8/20/2012 3:45:00 PM

Porters and ladies' maids were splurging on their own carriages just before the bursting of the South Sea Bubble. And luxury spending went into high-gear during the 1920s, just before the Great Depression. Excess consumption has been around in one form or another for a long time. And that includes today. Despite a weak economic rebound since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the demand for luxury is strong. Previous economic cycles show that an aggressive quest for luxury arrives...
 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, cultural trends, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, great depression, history, mania, market crash, South Sea Bubble, wisdom of crowds

Category: U.S. Economy


The Fragile Stock Market: One Glitch Away from Massive Losses
The trading hiccups will multiply when the downturn resumes

By Bob Stokes
8/6/2012 5:15:00 PM

If the Knight Capital glitch happened when the market was relatively calm, imagine what could happen when investors are running for the hills. Read what Robert Prechter is saying...

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Elliott wave, investor psychology, market crash, Robert Prechter, stock indexes, Traders, trading lessons

Category: Classic Prechter


Position Yourself for the Rest of "Conquer the Crash"
The earlier you prepare, the better

By Bob Stokes
5/17/2012 5:30:00 PM

To this day, I wonder why Robert Prechter's book Conquer the Crash has not been more widely recognized. It described in advance much of what happened in the 2008 financial crisis. Learn what Prechter is saying now...

Filed Under: banks, Bob Prechter, conquer the crash, debt crisis, debt downgrade, deflation, economic depression, Elliott Wave Theorist, Greek debt, market crash, market forecasts

Category: U.S. Economy


The Manic-Depressive Stock Market: What to Make of It
The psychology of the market may be teetering on the edge

By Bob Stokes
4/26/2012 4:45:00 PM

The stock market: one week it acts like Dr. Jekyll, the next week it's Mr. Hyde. What do we make of these dramatic fluctuations?...

 

Filed Under: Bear market, Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, market crash, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, risk management, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET, volatility

Category: Stocks


The World Has Suddenly Surrendered to Mass Optimism. Should You?
History shows that at market extremes many of the most opinioned bears and bulls surrender to popular opinion. The market then moves violently AGAINST popular opinion.

By Editorial Staff
4/6/2012 12:15:00 PM

Consider this. A week after the Dow's all-time high in October 2007, Robert Prechter went on Bloomberg to describe "extremes that exceed 1929 or 1987...these are the harbingers of a change to the downside for the stock market." A week before the major low in March 2009, he went on CNBC to say "it's getting crowded on the bear side...we've been in a short position for a long time, I recommended that people get out of it." S&P futures traders were a record 98% bears (only 2% bulls) on the very day of the low Prechter went on TV to call for a major turn to the upside. In other words, people were telling you to sell at the worst possible time. What about now? Here's what WE think.

Filed Under: Bear market, Bob Prechter, bull market, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave Theorist, Elliott Wave trading, herding, market crash, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, quantitative easing, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, stock indexes, stock market cycles, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Stocks


Bubble, Bubble: Stocks in Trouble?
400 years of history show: AFTER a mania, prices fall lower than they were BEFORE it

By Bob Stokes
3/21/2012 4:00:00 PM

It's easy to say you'll get out before the bubble bursts -- but there's always someone saying "stocks have more to run," or "this pullback is healthy for stocks"... in other words, "tulips are headed even higher"...

Filed Under: Bear market, CNBC, deflation, herding, history, mania, market crash, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes, technical indicators

Category: Stocks


830 Miles South-by-Southwest of Wall Street...
...In a 1930s small town office building...

By Bob Stokes
11/17/2011 5:00:00 PM

The September Elliott Wave Theorist said "Articles come out almost daily talking about the extreme volatility and what it 'means.' But this is something we forecast..." Find out what we're forecasting now...

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, market crash, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Stocks


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© 2013 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.