Initial Public Offerings of 2013 Meet the Manias of 2007 and 1929
IPOs are set to raise the most money since 2007.

By Bob Stokes
5/13/2013 5:00:00 PM

How can you tell when stock market optimism has turned "fervent"?  One historically sure sign is that a rush of companies go public. The year 1999 was a perfect example. Large numbers of Internet companies with zero revenue went public. The fervor didn't last, as you may recall. 2007 was also a busy year for IPOs -- and another major market top. Now consider the IPO levels of 2013.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Elliott wave, investor psychology, risk appetite, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes

Category: Stocks

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The Most Efficient Path of the Stock Market Unfolds at Large Degree
Investors face a historical juncture in the price pattern.

By Bob Stokes
5/8/2013 12:45:00 PM

In the 1920s, R.N. Elliott was a successful author, consultant and accountant. But late in that decade he contracted a debilitating and near-fatal illness that left him bedridden. He chose to pass the time by studying the stock market's price patterns. His career had required meticulous attention to detail, and in turn he applied that rigor to his study of the market. Learn about his fascinating discovery and how it's relevant today.

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave Theorist, Fibonacci, market forecasts, Ralph Nelson Elliott, Robert Prechter, stock indexes, technical analysis

Category: Stocks

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The Growing Case for Global Deflation
Prepare for a major worldwide economic contraction.

By Bob Stokes
4/24/2013 4:30:00 PM

The evidence for global deflation continues to build. Consider the recent plunge in the prices of commodities and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Plus, the International Monetary Fund recently warned that ...

Filed Under: commodities, crude oil, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, Gold, inflation, International Monetary Fund (IMF), silver, stock indexes, Treasury bonds

Category: Global Markets

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The Smell of Tulips is in the Air on Wall Street
All manias end below where they started.

By Bob Stokes
4/23/2013 4:45:00 PM

Tulip prices in Holland skyrocketed in the 1630s. A farmhouse was reportedly purchased with three bulbs in 1633. But the peak of Tulip Mania came in the winter of 1636-37 when someone refused to pay top dollar. Is the U.S. stock market a modern day parallel? Learn why the day may be near when one seller and one buyer agree that prices are too high.

Filed Under: bloomberg, Elliott Wave Theorist, history, mania, market crash, South Sea Bubble, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks

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The Single Most Important Leading Economic Indicator
History shows the stock market leads the economy.

By Bob Stokes
4/11/2013 5:45:00 PM

The phrase "leading economic indicators" refers to a core set of data points: the Consumer Price Index, real earnings, employment, U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, Producer Price Index and so on. And Forbes recently listed several unusual economic indicators which include lip stick and wine auctions. Learn about the single most important economic indicator that trumps them all.

Filed Under: economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, history, Robert Prechter, stock indexes

Category: U.S. Economy

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How to Protect Your Physical Safety in a Bad Economy
What you don't know can hurt you.

By Bob Stokes
4/9/2013 4:45:00 PM

In a time of economic turmoil, what you know can be as important as what you have. Your possessions can decline in value or be lost altogether, but your knowledge cannot be taken away. You can use what you know to protect what you have. Evidence suggests that many Americans fail to grasp this basic truth. Staying ahead of the crowd begins by reading. As for what to read, few topics are as important as protecting your finances and your physical safety -- and that's what can matter most during a severe economic downturn.

Filed Under: conquer the crash, deflation, economic depression, Elliott wave, European debt crisis, safe haven, soverign debt crisis, stock indexes

Category: U.S. Economy

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Just Watch the Next Bear Market on Television
Better to be a spectator than a participant in this event

By Bob Stokes
4/8/2013 4:45:00 PM

When you consider what's on television, one wonders if human nature has changed very much since Romans packed the Colosseum for gruesome entertainment. One cable channel offers wall-to-wall coverage of a famous murder trial. The 2007-2009 financial crisis turned into a made-for-TV drama. The next bear market could turn out to be an even bigger television spectacle. The Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, states that "human nature does not change."

Filed Under: Bear market, Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, herding, history, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks

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Why Your Life Insurance Company May Need Health Insurance
Learn what you can do to prepare

By Bob Stokes
3/13/2013 5:00:00 PM

In the second edition of Conquer the Crash, Robert Prechter writes: "Even traditionally safe insurance companies are massively exposed to losses during a major deflation because they invest in standard vehicles such as stocks, bonds and real estate. ... When insurance companies implode, they file for bankruptcy, and you can be left out in the cold. I know, because my insurance broker placed our insurance with ..."

Filed Under: all the same market theory, conquer the crash, deflation, Elliott wave, insurance industry, junk bonds, liquidity, personal finance, Robert Prechter, stock indexes

Category: U.S. Economy

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U.S. Stock Buyers: Beware the Pitfalls of Trend Extrapolation
Change is the only constant in life

By Bob Stokes
3/11/2013 5:30:00 PM

Most people tend to extrapolate today's trends into tomorrow. The irony is that when the crowd reaches a consensus about a trend, that's when it's likely to change. For example, when most everyone agrees that a championship sports team can do no wrong, it usually marks the time when the team's fortunes start to turn south.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, history, mania, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks

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3 Sentiment Indicators Warn of a Punch to Stock Portfolios
Investors ignore Washington D.C.'s budget battle

By Bob Stokes
3/4/2013 6:00:00 PM

Money managers say there's no alternative to stocks, and even general-interest magazines scream "BUY!" One forecast is for Dow 60,000! Even after a 4-year rally, billionaire Warren Buffett still considers stocks a "good value." If it seems like market sentiment is virtually one-sided, that's because it is. It's time to look at the stock market from another angle.

Filed Under: bloomberg, CNBC, Elliott Wave Theorist, hedge funds, investment strategy, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes

Category: Stocks

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The February 2013 Theorist: Like a Four-Course Epic Meal
When Bob Prechter wants something to happen, a lot gets done in a little time

By Robert Folsom
2/25/2013 4:30:00 PM

If the February 2013 Theorist was a fine dining experience, it would be a four-course epic – including those moments at the table after you finish and reflect on what a great meal it was. Discover why the latest Theorist is twice the size and published ahead of schedule.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, Elliott Wave Theorist, stock indexes, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks

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The New York Stock Exchange Purchase Announcement Sends a Major Market Clue
A big market signal may be overlooked

By Bob Stokes
2/13/2013 5:45:00 PM

There are well-known market indicators which have stood the test of time. Many are technical, some are seasonal and others are sentiment indicators. Yet there's one sentiment indicator that most contrarian investors may overlook. And this one involves the New York Stock Exchange itself. Learn more.

Filed Under: CNBC, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, investor psychology, Magazine Cover Indicator, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), sentiment, steve hochberg, stock indexes, technical analysis

Category: Stocks

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A Coy Public Suddenly Gets Cozy with Stocks
The last burst of market optimism?

By Bob Stokes
1/30/2013 4:00:00 PM

The public is jumping into stocks after being reluctant to do so for most of the uptrend since March 2009. A bullish sign or a red flag? Well, consider that investors were also bullish on Oct. 9, 2007, just before the Dow's all-time closing high. Just days earlier (the third week of September 2007), equity fund inflows hit an all-time record of $23 billion. See the chart.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Elliott wave, long-term trend, market forecasts, sentiment, stock indexes

Category: Stocks

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High-End Real Estate: "The Market is Insane, I've Never Really Seen Anything Like It."
What's ahead for the re-inflation of real estate?

By Bob Stokes
1/25/2013 3:30:00 PM

Second chances don't always present themselves in financial markets. And when opportunities to recoup losses do appear, the psychology of the moment may stop people from taking beneficial actions. Consider the stock market and the recent surge in high-end real estate prices.

Filed Under: CNBC, economic indicators, Elliott wave, herding, home sales, housing prices, investor psychology, mania, stock indexes

Category: U.S. Economy

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Economic Reality Takes a Back Seat to Investor Irrationality
Following the investment crowd can be damaging to your portfolio

By Bob Stokes
1/18/2013 5:15:00 PM

The United States faces what a former Treasury Secretary calls a "debt bomb." Yet, investors continue to plow money into risk-assets, like stocks and junk bonds. Learn what Bob Prechter says about irrational investment behavior and its likely outcome.

Filed Under: bloomberg, Bob Prechter, CNBC, debt crisis, Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, junk bonds, municipal bonds, sentiment, stock indexes, Treasury bonds

Category: U.S. Economy

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Why "Predicting the Present" Is Not a Forecast
Stock market trend changes are almost always unexpected.

By Bob Stokes
1/7/2013 7:00:00 PM

Most mainstream market forecasts boil down to trend extrapolation. By definition, a forecast describes the future. But all too often, people who try to describe the future do little more than "predict the present." Recent bullish 2013 forecasts from Wall Street may have been voiced on the verge of a major trend change.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, banks, Bob Prechter, Citigroup, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, Goldman Sachs, herding, history, investor psychology, long-term trend, market crash, market forecasts, sentiment, stock indexes, Wall Street

Category: Stocks

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The Tortoise is About to Cross the Financial Finish Line
Slow and safe wins the race

By Bob Stokes
1/4/2013 5:00:00 PM

It's true that a Treasury-bill account yields next to nothing. But at this financial juncture, the well-known saying of humorist Will Rogers has never been more relevant: "I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money." Learn why Bob Prechter says that embracing financial risk because interest rates are low can be a trap.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Bear market, conquer the crash, derivatives, Elliott wave, history, Interest Rates, investment strategy, long-term trend, market forecasts, mutual funds, personal finance, risk management, Robert Prechter, safe haven, social mood, stock indexes, Treasury bills (T-bills), treasury yields

Category: Classic Prechter

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Is Apple's Drop into Bear Market Territory a Harbinger for the Broader Market?
The bearish mood that took a bite out of Apple may tug on the overall market.

By Bob Stokes
12/6/2012 4:30:00 PM

In the past few years, Apple, Inc., stock seemed to defy Newton's law of gravity as it ascended to its all-time intraday high of $705. But in light of recent market action, investors are wondering if Apple can keep up with its hype. The money-manager favorite just had its worst single session decline since 2008. At least one investment letter was not surprised by Apple stock's retreat.

Filed Under: Bear market, buy and hold, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, hedge funds, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, stock indexes, technical analysis, volume

Category: Stocks

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Looking Down from the Top of a Sky-High Stock Market Indicator
A new spin on the venerable skyscraper indicator

By Bob Stokes
12/5/2012 5:30:00 PM

Did you know you can forecast stock prices simply by gazing upon a big-city skyline? The popularity of the venerable skyscraper indicator has grown over the years, but it's long been a contrarian indicator for Elliott-minded investors. EWI readers have referenced the skyscraper indicator for years. Once again, it appears to be flashing an important signal about a historic trend change on the horizon.
 

Filed Under: Elliott wave, , Magazine Cover Indicator, market forecasts, sentiment, social mood, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks

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U.S. Stock Market: Beware the Shopping Season Hype
Retail sales reports don't drive stock trends

By Bob Stokes
11/26/2012 5:30:00 PM

Positive news about holiday season sales can give investors the idea that the economy is doing well, which in turn translates to the stock market. It may appear that the recent stock market bounce and retail sales are linked. But the simple truth is, correlation is not causation.

Filed Under: economic indicators, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, history, Interest Rates, market forecasts, stock indexes

Category: Stocks

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