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EUR/USD (Forex): Like Watching Grass Grow
After every choppy market move comes a price spike

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/10/2010 3:00:00 PM

For six weeks now, the euro-dollar exchange rate, known to forex traders as the EUR/USD, has gone nowhere. The dollar has gained big since late November, but while we've seen some big ups and downs lately, they made almost zero net progress: Today, the rate stands near $1.3650, where it was in early February. What's next?

Filed Under: forex, eur/usd, euro-dollar exchange rate, usd, u.s. dollar
Category: Currencies


Forex Trading Vs. Stock Trading: What Are The Advantages? Part I
24-hour trading, liquidity and limited number of markets is what draws Elliott Wave International's Jim Martens to currencies.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/25/2010 4:00:00 PM
Elliott Wave International presents Part I of the interview with its Senior Currency Strategist, Jim Martens. Vadim Pokhlebkin: Jim, readers often tell us that they want to make money trading the markets. There are lots of options out there. Can you tell me why I'd want to look at forex and not, say, the more "traditional" stock trading? -- Jim Martens: First, currency markets are much larger than equity markets...
Filed Under: forex, Currencies, euro-dollar exchange rate, eur/usd, Usd/chf, u.s. dollar, euro, volatility, selling short
Category: Currencies


Forex (Video): How to Use Elliott Wave to Forecast U.S. Dollar
Currencies often display beautiful Elliott wave patterns

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/10/2010 4:15:00 PM

On November 26, 2009, the U.S. dollar did "the impossible": It stopped falling, reversed, and staged a strong rally -- to the complete surprise of the mainstream financial world. At the time, making a bullish call on the USD was all but laughable, to most investors -- yet EWI's Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens did it anyway. Watch this free video clip to find out why.

Filed Under: u.s. dollar, forex, elliott wave, Currencies
Category: Currencies


Dow Rallies, Dow Falls: What's Driving Volatility?
Markets are not rational. Paradoxically, that is what makes them predictable.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/8/2010 4:15:00 PM

Last Friday (February 5) was yet another interesting day to compare the stock market action with the explanations from conventional analysts. (This show never gets old, I swear.) Around midday, the Dow was down almost 170 points; everything pointed to another grim day. But then the blue chips reversed and closed higher. Don't look for a good "fundamental" explanation: There was none.

Filed Under: volatility, vix, DJIA, Unemployment rate, Robert Prechter, Sovereign Debt, u.s. dollar
Category: Stocks


EUR/USD Falls Hard: What's Next? Find Out FREE
You can forecast currencies without relying on the news and economic reports.

by Editorial Staff
2/4/2010 1:15:00 PM
On February 4, the EUR/USD fell hard. The mainstream forex analysts blamed it on Mr. Trichet's statement, but Elliott wave patterns in the EUR/USD foretold the euro weakness way in advance. Here's your FREE chance to read latest Elliott wave forex analysis now. 
Filed Under: forex, Currencies, Trichet, Greek sovereign debt, euro, u.s. dollar
Category: Currencies


Latest Forex Forecasts, Yours FREE Now: Here's How
You get 7 days of free currency market forecasts with Feb. 3-10 FreeWeek!

by Editorial Staff
2/3/2010 12:00:00 PM
Free Forex Forecasts from Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave International! Now through 12 noon on February 10. You know how confusing it can be to gauge forex market trends by watching news reports. Tired of the guesswork? Then try something different right now, free, with EWI's most popular Specialty Service, Currencies. Get instant FREE access now.
Filed Under: forex, Currencies, u.s. dollar, euro, forex news, forex forecasts, msci
Category: Currencies


GDP Up, DJIA Down: What Happened?
Our collective emotions play a huge role in our investment decisions.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/1/2010 4:15:00 PM

Last Friday (January 29) was a great day to watch the stock market and compare the price action against the explanations from analysts. Throughout the day, investors and analysts simply focused on the news stories that best fit that hour in the market... This seems like a flawed approach, and here's why.

Filed Under: GDP, Bernanke, DJIA, technology earnings, u.s. dollar, random walk
Category: Stocks


EUR/USD Breaks Below Major Price Point
Just when everyone thought the U.S. dollar was a goner, it rebounds!

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/28/2010 1:00:00 PM

On January 27, the EUR/USD (exchange rate between the euro and U.S. dollar and the most widely trade forex pair) slipped below $1.40 for the first time in six months. In other words, the dollar, considered by most analysts all but doomed a short while ago, now stands at a 6-month high against its main competitor. Ironic? Paradoxical? You bet. Here's more on that from Robert Prechter.

Filed Under: eur/usd, euro, u.s. dollar, Currencies, forex, Robert Prechter, t-bills, Treasury bonds, Fed, greece, portugal
Category: Currencies


Forex: How to Trade Around Fed's Decisions on Interest Rates
You can navigate volatility on big news days with Elliott wave analysis

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/27/2010 4:30:00 PM

Around data releases, forex; traders often buy the U.S. dollar -- but then sell it just as quickly (or vice versa). Trading at such moments can be dangerous, but it helps if you know Elliott wave analysis. Watch this classic free 8-minute video where the editor of EWI's intensive Currency Specialty Service Jim Martens explains how.

Filed Under: Federal Reserve, interest rates, u.s. dollar, FOMC, forex, Currencies
Category: Currencies


Pricing Crude Oil in "Gulfos"? In Their Dreams
The Wave Principle tells us that the time to be a contrarian is when emotions run high

by Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst
12/21/2009 11:30:00 AM
A bloc of oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reported preliminary steps to establish a regional currency: The “Gulfo,” in which to trade their oil in lieu of U.S. dollars. Is this a threat to the dollar hegemony? Some would say yes, but I would say no. In fact I would go as far to say heck no.
Filed Under: gulfo, arab currency, Crude oil, peak oil, u.s. dollar, forex
Category: Energy


U.S. Dollar: From Panic to Embrace
How the love/hate sentiment toward the dollar can help you pinpoint major turns.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/16/2009 2:45:00 PM
My mother lives in Moscow. I call her often, and every once in a while the conversation turns to the economy -- specifically, the strength of the U.S. dollar. Usually this happens when the dollar gets weaker. Then our conversation goes something like this...
Filed Under: u.s. dollar, ruble, Currencies, forex, eur/usd, euro, yen, Swiss franc, Crude oil, reserve currency
Category: Currencies


U.S. Dollar (Forex): Feelings vs. Reality
Despite the gloomy news, the U.S. dollar has held its own, so far.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/24/2009 1:45:00 PM

Despite the near-panicky news headlines, you can see from this chart that for most of November the EUR/USD has gone sideways! Yes, big swings up and down -- but almost zero net progress, so far. In the words of Elliott Wave International's president Bob Prechter...

Filed Under: forex, exchange rate, prechter, u.s. dollar, eur/usd
Category: Currencies


U.S. Dollar "Flies": A Blip or Start of Something Big?
Bernanke wants to ensure strong dollar; Trichet concurs. What do Elliott wave patterns say?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/17/2009 2:30:00 PM

The Fed's chairman Bernanke said on Monday they were watching currencies markets to "help ensure that the dollar is strong"; the ECB's Trichet said that Bernanke's statement was "very important." Apparently, forex traders interpreted both comments as bullish for the dollar... but if you've been watching the EUR/USD's Elliott wave patterns, you didn't have to wait for the morning news to tell you that. See this chart...

Filed Under: Bernanke, Trichet, u.s. dollar, euro, forex, foreign exchange, Currencies
Category: Currencies


Oil's Recent Selloff Defies One Kind of Logic (CHART)
... And obeys another

by Nico Isaac
11/13/2009 4:00:00 PM
Just when you think you've got a handle on the way certain fundamentals affect the market of your choice -- POOF! The rules change. Take, for example, the supposed set-in-stone logic that prices of crude oil rise when two things happen: The U.S. dollar loses and gold gains. As recently as late October 2009 -- with oil prices soaring to their highest level for the year -- this correlation was a constant mainstay of the mainstream financial media. Here, the following news sources from the time...
Filed Under: Crude oil, oil, Energy, u.s. dollar, Gold
Category: Energy


EUR/USD (Forex): How to Forecast Market Moves Before They Occur
Not every Elliott wave forecast works out. But the method's objectivity still trumps most discussions about "market fundamentals."

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
11/4/2009 7:15:00 PM

News stories move the markets -- that's what just about every investor believes. But can you predict what the market will do before the news is released? Let's look at a fresh example: the actio in the EUR/USD on November 4, when the Federal Reserve Bank announced its latest decision on the U.S. interest rates.

Filed Under: Currencies, forex, eur/usd, Federal Reserve, interest rates, u.s. dollar
Category: Currencies


EUR/USD (Forex): Big Moves, But What's the Reason?
Despite all odds, the U.S. dollar is showing serious strength.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
10/27/2009 3:00:00 PM

Early on October 26, the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the euro (and the most widely-traded forex pair) began an out-of-the-blue slide from near $1.50. If the dollar's dramatic show of strength in the midst of all the doomsday scenarios surprised you, you're not alone. Anyone looking at the Monday morning forex headlines was likely caught off guard. What's behind the dollar rally?

Filed Under: u.s. dollar, Currencies, forex, eur/usd, euro, china, foreign exchange reserves
Category: Currencies


U.S. Dollar: Kiss Goodbye or Reversal at Hand?
Remember how bearish people were on oil ten years ago? Today, it's the U.S. dollar.

by Jim Martens, Senior Currency Strategist
10/13/2009 11:45:00 AM

Remember how bearish people were on oil ten years ago? Today, it's the U.S. dollar. This recent headline on DrudgeReport.com, "Kiss the Dollar Goodbye," complete with a picture of a smooching President Obama, is a fair reflection of the sentiment toward the buck. But here's what it likely means...

Filed Under: u.s. dollar, oil, obama, currency, forex
Category: Currencies


Believe It Or Not, In Defense of the Dollar
The fact is, there are no good alternatives to the U.S. dollar.

by Bill Fox, Senior Bonds Analyst
10/8/2009 3:30:00 PM
The word on the street is, the U.S. dollar is rapidly depreciating, so investment in the U.S. Treasuries defies common sense. You would think that would prompt foreign governments such as China and Saudi Arabia to stop investing in U.S. securities? But instead of selling their depreciating dollar-denominated assets, they are buying more. Here's why, says EWI's Bill Fox…
Filed Under: u.s. dollar, china, saudi arabia, U.S. Treasuries, inflation, deflation, prechter
Category: Economy


U.S. Dollar: Another Piece of the Puzzle?
Individual investors can be wrong about a market trend. But countries?

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
9/15/2009 10:30:00 AM
Unless you're a financial professional with a keen interest in international bond markets, you probably didn't even notice an obscure news item from Germany last week. Yet it may speak volumes about the coming trend change in the U.S. dollar.
Filed Under: Currencies, forex, u.s. dollar, dollar Index, euro, eur/usd, foreign exchange
Category: Currencies


Death of the U.S. Dollar?
Not so fast: We've been here before.

by Vadim Pokhlebkin
9/9/2009 12:15:00 PM
One look at the latest U.S. dollar news headlines, and it seems like the buck has nowhere to hide. The buck is toast. Stick a fork in it. It's done. But wait -- we've been here before.
Filed Under: u.s. dollar, euro-dollar exchange rate, forex, currencies, euro, eur/usd, usd, eur, jpy
Category: Currencies


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.