Elliott Wave InternationalmyEWISocioniomics.Net

The Smell of Tulips is in the Air on Wall Street
All manias end below where they started.

By Bob Stokes
4/23/2013 4:45:00 PM

Tulip prices in Holland skyrocketed in the 1630s. A farmhouse was reportedly purchased with three bulbs in 1633. But the peak of Tulip Mania came in the winter of 1636-37 when someone refused to pay top dollar. Is the U.S. stock market a modern day parallel? Learn why the day may be near when one seller and one buyer agree that prices are too high.

Filed Under: bloomberg, Elliott Wave Theorist, history, mania, market crash, South Sea Bubble, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


Just Watch the Next Bear Market on Television
Better to be a spectator than a participant in this event

By Bob Stokes
4/8/2013 4:45:00 PM

When you consider what's on television, one wonders if human nature has changed very much since Romans packed the Colosseum for gruesome entertainment. One cable channel offers wall-to-wall coverage of a famous murder trial. The 2007-2009 financial crisis turned into a made-for-TV drama. The next bear market could turn out to be an even bigger television spectacle. The Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, states that "human nature does not change."

Filed Under: Bear market, Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, herding, history, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


U.S. Stock Buyers: Beware the Pitfalls of Trend Extrapolation
Change is the only constant in life

By Bob Stokes
3/11/2013 5:30:00 PM

Most people tend to extrapolate today's trends into tomorrow. The irony is that when the crowd reaches a consensus about a trend, that's when it's likely to change. For example, when most everyone agrees that a championship sports team can do no wrong, it usually marks the time when the team's fortunes start to turn south.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, history, mania, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


Luxury Spending: This Financial Indicator is a Real Masterpiece
Elliott wave analysis of the art market foretells social and economic change

By Bob Stokes
1/15/2013 5:30:00 PM

Luxury seekers push prices higher when they agree that a given commodity is valuable. The most over-the-top spending occurs near market tops. That's what happened in the 1630s at the height of Tulip Mania, the stock market top of 1929 and more recent speculative fever tops. Learn what current prices of luxury items signal about the financial future.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, all the same market theory, consumer spending, economic indicators, Elliott wave, financial forecast, herding, wisdom of crowds

Category: U.S. Economy


New Year's Euphoria and the Dow Industrials Breakout That Bombed
Will stock market history repeat itself?

By Bob Stokes
1/3/2013 4:45:00 PM

New Year's stock market euphoria is not emanating from the financial fringe. Recent headlines indicate that top-tier Wall Street firms are "all-systems go" on stocks. Fiscal fear among the financial establishment is conspicuously absent. EWI's publications put this market optimism into thought-provoking historical perspective.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, history, investor psychology, mania, market forecasts, Short Term Update, technical analysis, U.S. STOCK MARKET, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


Looking Down from the Top of a Sky-High Stock Market Indicator
A new spin on the venerable skyscraper indicator

By Bob Stokes
12/5/2012 5:30:00 PM

Did you know you can forecast stock prices simply by gazing upon a big-city skyline? The popularity of the venerable skyscraper indicator has grown over the years, but it's long been a contrarian indicator for Elliott-minded investors. EWI readers have referenced the skyscraper indicator for years. Once again, it appears to be flashing an important signal about a historic trend change on the horizon.
 

Filed Under: Elliott wave, , Magazine Cover Indicator, market forecasts, sentiment, social mood, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


How to Use Investors' Collective Unconscious to Anticipate Stock Market Trends
Learn the steps human beings go through when they're part of an investment crowd

By Bob Stokes
11/12/2012 4:15:00 PM

Peaks and troughs in investor psychology have repeated throughout the stock market's history. Investors who can recognize the current trend for what it is are the best prepared to anticipate and benefit from its eventual reversal. So the question becomes, how do you recognize the current trend for what it is?

Filed Under: Elliott wave, herding, history, investor psychology, mania, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


The Psychology of a Market Top: How Bernard Baruch Kept His Millions
Market psychology is at a historic inflection point

By Bob Stokes
10/5/2012 2:30:00 PM

Legendary investor Bernard Baruch described the months before the 1929 crash, and explained why he knew it was time to sell. Learn why the psychology that produces a historic market turn may be at work now. 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, financial forecast, herding, history, investor psychology, mania, market forecasts, U.S. STOCK MARKET, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


The Financial Press is Missing the Biggest Scoop Ever
The crowd is always on the wrong side of major trend changes

By Bob Stokes
9/18/2012 5:00:00 PM

Financial journalists are setting themselves up to miss the biggest financial scoop since the Great Depression, perhaps ever. Rest assured: You'll see plenty of stories after the fact. Most will contain post-analysis that will sound like the prescient warnings EWI is providing now...

 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, history, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


Warning Sign for the Economy: An Indicator With a History of Calling Major Turns
Why "Easy Street" may soon face a bunch of sinkholes

By Bob Stokes
8/20/2012 3:45:00 PM

Porters and ladies' maids were splurging on their own carriages just before the bursting of the South Sea Bubble. And luxury spending went into high-gear during the 1920s, just before the Great Depression. Excess consumption has been around in one form or another for a long time. And that includes today. Despite a weak economic rebound since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the demand for luxury is strong. Previous economic cycles show that an aggressive quest for luxury arrives...
 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, cultural trends, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, great depression, history, mania, market crash, South Sea Bubble, wisdom of crowds

Category: U.S. Economy


Witness the Epic Battle Between Investor Hope and Investor Fear
Collective investor psychology: an insight from the long forgotten Mr. Gates

By Bob Stokes
7/9/2012 5:30:00 PM

Most market observers believe that investors respond logically to the latest news and buy or sell based on objective valuations. Nothing could be further from the truth...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, herding, investment decisions, investor psychology, sentiment, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


Why the Herd Cannot Buy Low or Sell High
The June Socionomist reveals why the "wisdom" of crowds does not apply to investing

By Nico Isaac
7/27/2011 5:30:00 PM

In 1907, an Englishman at a county fair observed that a group of independent opinions offers a better estimate than can any single individual in the group. Fast forward one century, and this idea grew into the theme of a popular book with a really long title: "The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations."

Filed Under: Robert Prechter, Daily Sentiment Index (DSI), herding, Robert Prechter, socionomics, wisdom of crowds

Category: Socionomics


Why NOT to Join the Crowd that Believes in "Crowd Wisdom"
A fresh orange doesn't have much in common with a rotten apple

By Robert Folsom
7/15/2011 5:15:00 PM

How mind-blowing is Professor Bollen's social mood research? Enough so that a London-based hedge fund now employs a trading strategy based upon the results.

Filed Under: social mood, wisdom of crowds

Category: Socionomics


Get Your Free Email Newsletters

Simply pick what interests you and enter your email address:


Challenge the way you think about investing with The EWI Independent

Dig deeper into the world of Elliott wave trading via Trading the Waves

Get the week's can't-miss articles and free resources from The EWI Weekly Select

Get the latest from our sister organization, the Socionomics Institute
We respect your privacy. TRUSTe

Latest Articles
Categories and RSS
Press Room
Browse Recent Media Articles that Mention EWI or Feature EWI Analysts
As the markets enter what Bob Prechter calls "the point of recognition," we notice that mainstream media pundits who get it start to notice us, our analysts and our forecasts. You can browse dozens of recent media articles about EWI in the EWI Press Room.

© 2013 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.