Updated: February 28, 2018The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But the evidence shows that the U.S. central bank does not lead on rates. These two charts are revealing.
Updated: February 23, 2018Since the peak in September 2017, T-Bond futures prices have recently fallen hard -- now see the unfolding (and telling) reversal in sentiment among two trader groups.
Updated: February 16, 2018If you think bonds are a "safe" alternative to stocks, think again. History shows that bonds can go through wild swings like stocks. Look at these two charts .
Updated: January 29, 2018The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But it's a myth that the U.S. central bank determines the direction of rates. These two charts are revealing.
Updated: January 12, 2018See what a generational change in trend looks like -- plus a preview of what may be next in Treasury yields.
Updated: December 13, 2017Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.
Updated: December 13, 2017A classic pattern signals a trend reversal in high-yield debt: See the clear warning for yourself.
Updated: December 4, 2017If you remember, credit default swaps were at the heart of the financial crisis, so doing a bit of a “Where are they now?” investigation today is more than relevant.
Updated: November 21, 2017Think the Fed's interest rates control the stock market? Watch as Matt Lampert shows you how to bust this market myth in 2 minutes, using real-world examples from Robert Prechter's Socionomic Theory of Finance.
Updated: November 21, 2017The junk-to-treasury spread recently closed to ZERO, for the first time EVER. Wall Street says "no big deal" -- now see for yourself how BIG this is.
Updated: November 20, 2017What happens when HIGH consumer confidence joins LOW savings See and hear the answer right now
Updated: November 9, 2017Who "controls" interest rates? Wall Street thinks it knows, but see our answer for yourself.
Updated: October 4, 2017The Federal Reserve announced last month that they would start to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, thereby starting the process we call Quantitative Tightening (QT)...
Updated: September 14, 2017The "Term Premium" for bonds was below zero for decades. Not now: See why markets are ripe for an historic moment.
Updated: September 14, 2017The longstanding myth is, the interest rate market follows the lead of the central bank. Now see the facts for yourself.
Updated: September 8, 2017Bonds are generally considered far less risky than the stock market. That's a big reason why flows into bond mutual funds and ETFs have been substantial in the past two years. But there's a major reason to be wary of the bond market. See for yourself.
Updated: August 25, 2017Wipe out! That's what can happen when investors reach for yield in high-risk debt instruments. See a stunning European example.
Updated: August 25, 2017This chart offers a completely different take on the question of why President Trump's approval is falling.
Updated: August 24, 2017This week, the great and the good from central banks around the world gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the annual Kansas City Fed Economic Policy Symposium, and the world's financial media will hang on every word in the hope that something meaningful will be said...
Updated: August 22, 2017Tesla's share price at an all-time high, its junk bond yield at a record low. Today's investor appetite for risk is strong indeed...
Updated: July 13, 2017Grabbing the headlines today is the Bank of Canada's first interest rate hike in seven years. Speculation amongst conventional economists has now turned to whether they will continue to hike rates. We have a simple answer to that question: watch the market.
Updated: July 5, 2017Even during a national economic expansion, many U.S. municipalities are financially troubled. "Two out of every three states took in less tax revenue than expected this year." This chart of muni bond yield spreads will make you wonder about the future.
Updated: June 13, 2017Whenever the Fed makes its scheduled interest rates announcement, it's almost always an exciting moment in the markets. But, for an objective guidance on future Fed actions, keep calm ... and follow market rates.
Updated: June 12, 2017The head of credit research for a municipal-bond management firm just commented: "We haven't seen this in a modern state before." He was talking about Illinois' deep fiscal trouble. Look at the eye-brow-raising credit spread.
Updated: June 7, 2017In investing, one rule of thumb tells you that the higher the return, the higher the risk. Today, one high-yield debt instrument that was at the forefront of the 2007-2009 financial crisis has reached a new, dangerous milestone. We're sounding the alarm -- again.
Updated: June 6, 2017Financial news networks spend untold hours debating with their guests as to whether interest rates will rise or fall -- and the effect that will have on the currency. But what if they argued ... over nothing? See this chart and analysis from Murray Gunn and decide for yourself.
Updated: May 17, 2017Charts like this one show that markets can anticipate huge shifts in broad psychology: Another dangerous spike may be just around the bend.
Updated: May 17, 2017Maxwell Edison may have majored in medicine, as the Beatles sang, but many of the "brainiacs" on Wall Street are hedge fund managers. Even so, their performance record at key market turns often leaves a lot to be desired. See this eye-opening bond market chart.
Updated: April 25, 2017Our three recent Treasury Bond charts combine to show you trader sentiment, price action and important near-term turns and trends.
Updated: April 7, 2017The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.
Updated: March 23, 2017Two trader groups habitually on opposite sides of the market are at it again: See what past extremes say to the present trend.
Updated: March 17, 2017The Fed just announced a 0.25% hike of its benchmark rate -- the second such move in the past three months. A long-held Wall Street belief is that higher rates mean a downturn in stock market prices. Let's put that belief to a test.
Updated: February 22, 2017Here's a chart you won't see elsewhere: Bob Prechter's analysis and observations, depicted visually in the 70-year interest rate cycle. If the symmetry holds, it suggests that the time to come could include years of crisis, Deflation, Depression and possible World War.
Updated: January 17, 2017If you count on standard credit rating agencies for timely warnings, you might find yourself "behind the 8-ball." Time and again, downgrades have occurred after the damage has already been done. Now is the time to protect your portfolio.
Updated: January 9, 2017Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.
Updated: October 28, 2015What comes first? See the evidence on these three charts for yourself in Episode 4 of the Elliott Wave Pillars Series.
Updated: February 25, 2015Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.