Updated: August 18, 2017Is the proverbial "rainy day" upon us? If so, two developments indicate that many people are financially unprepared. Also, find out why our September Elliott Wave Theorist just published an entire month early.
Updated: August 16, 2017Would you like to know what the health of the economy will be like months ahead of time? This rarely discussed "economic indicator" has a history of serving as a useful guide. See for yourself.
Updated: August 9, 2017The trip up the side of Debt Mountain is getting more treacherous. A new milestone has been reached. Learn the lesson that financial history teaches.
Updated: July 13, 2017We anticipate that many more borrowers will welch on their obligations as debt starts to deflate.
Updated: July 10, 2017Some U.S. real estate markets have bounced back strongly since the Great Recession while others have languished. All told, "the recovery is spotty at best." Now, two new developments are adding risk to the mortgage market.
Updated: July 7, 2017In 1939, Sir Winston Churchill said that Russia was "... a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." The same could be said of China today.
Updated: June 30, 2017Food prices in the USA are under pressure at the moment – but should we see this as a general trend towards deflation?
Updated: June 23, 2017The housing market is heating up -- again. Signs are appearing that are reminders of the previous housing boom. "Buyers are convinced values will only continue to climb ... ." Is the housing trend near a reversal?
Updated: June 21, 2017As the amount of household debt rises, so does the risk of another financial crisis. A new milestone has been reached in the U.S. But a chart shows that the dangers of debt are global.
Updated: June 5, 2017The U.S. housing market has staged a significant rebound since prices bottomed in February 2012. Now, at least one measure of optimism has returned to the height of the bubble days. Some say not to worry because "the economy is in far better shape than a decade ago." Is today really different?
Updated: June 2, 2017Critics say President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement dealt a setback to the global-warming cause. But, the evidence suggests that "global-warming fever" had already been cooling off. "Crowds often think their personal cause of the moment is a permanent issue. It almost never is."
Updated: May 30, 2017In 2016, the prevailing sentiment toward China's economy was negative. Yet, if investors had avoided China's internet sector, they would have missed a significant advance. The whole episode teaches a valuable lesson.
Updated: May 19, 2017News about today's economy only talks about "growth." The true story this chart tells isn't reported nearly as often.
Updated: May 4, 2017Toronto is the 4th largest city in North America and anchors a greater metropolitan region of nine million -- more than a quarter of Canada's entire population. A city this size is an ideal candidate to preview real estate trends in Canada and in the United States...
Updated: May 4, 2017Cash-strapped Puerto Rico is unable to meet its debt obligations as a key deadline passes. Investors in the Commonwealth's General Obligation Bonds have taken a big haircut. Other municipalities are next in line.
Updated: April 28, 2017Cash is the one asset that is almost sure to rise in value during a deflationary period. Yet, the "war on cash" has been escalating. Here's why you should start storing away plenty of cash.
Updated: April 28, 2017This humble chart shows REAL average weekly wages -- and why a bigger paycheck does NOT necessarily mean more purchasing power. See why purchasing power has been flat for a decade.
Updated: April 24, 2017Delinquencies have been increasing for subprime car loans. Yet, car dealers are unfazed and have been allowing buyers to "trade in underwater vehicles two or three times." The credit boom is reaching an extreme.
Updated: April 17, 2017According to the mainstream pundits, the long-awaited "Easter-egg hunt" of recovery in Europe's economy and stock markets is over! Optimism is off the charts. But it's what's ON our charts that warns caution.
Updated: April 7, 2017The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.
Updated: March 13, 2017In February, the U.S. jobless rate fell to 4.7% as the economy added 235,000 non-farm payrolls. Some people attribute the economic improvement to the new president. Here's why the added jobs were anticipated well before the U.S. election.
Updated: March 7, 2017Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash states: "The psychological aspect of deflation ... cannot be overstated." The manifestations of this psychology are already appearing. Learn where -- and how.
Updated: February 23, 2017U.S. debt is on the rise and could reach a milestone level sometime in 2017. Student debt has risen for 18 consecutive years, and subprime loans are a growing worry in another sector. See these charts to understand the threat.
Updated: February 21, 2017In 2016, the UK enjoyed its biggest credit boom ever, as consumers piled on debt hand over fist. Question: Is this really a sign of an economy running on all cylinders? Read our perspective today.
Updated: February 14, 2017Many recent survey respondents see clear skies ahead for the U.S. economy. But there's an important historic insight that investors need to know about today's economic optimism.
Updated: February 14, 2017We've all read about, heard about and watched the many negative political headlines from across the planet. If you're an investor, you have to wonder: What does it all mean for world trade and global markets? That question is too broad to answer with one graph or visual, but: We do have a chart to start the conversation.
Updated: February 13, 2017Greece's debt drama has returned to center stage. But global financiers are balking at another bailout. Meanwhile, Europe's banking system remains fragile. There's only one way "Europe's seemingly endless series of financial crises will end."
Updated: February 9, 2017What else is built into this TRILLION dollars of auto debt? Well, with a bubble there's always more. Click 'play' to see what we see...
Updated: February 8, 2017In 2016, the U.S. inflation rate rose from 1.4% in January to 2.1% in December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. So, how did classic inflation hedges perform? Let's take a look at two.
Updated: February 8, 2017The Eurozone, led by Germany and France, is approaching inflation targets with overall inflation for Eurozone countries coming in near 1.8%, just a little below ECB's official 2% target. But looking below the surface, all may not be quite as it seems. Brian Whitmer, the editor of the European Financial Forecast, offers his take.
Updated: February 7, 2017News flash: The 2016 U.S. trade deficit was the largest since 2012, fueling President Trump’s fire to narrow the nation’s gap and bolster the economy. But this research shows historical evidence that suggests this approach could seriously backfire.
Updated: February 1, 2017U.S. shopping malls have seen better days. Now, foot traffic is dwindling. Major retailers are closing stores. One iconic retailer has just seen its share price touch fresh lows.
Updated: January 27, 2017Robert Folsom explains that a real honeymoon means a "happy couple" -- and so far, Donald Trump hasn't made his "bride" -- namely, the public -- happy.
Updated: January 25, 2017Even today, there are repercussions from the real estate lending boom that ended with the subprime mortgage crisis. In 2017, commercial mortgages are maturing, and some landlords face delinquency. Here's what that means for some bondholders.
Updated: January 25, 2017Pete Kendall, the co-editor of our flagship Financial Forecast, tells you how "it all began" for him at the New York Stock Exchange.
Updated: January 23, 2017Despite the Fed's stimulus efforts, inflation remains subdued. The trend in money velocity -- the rate at which money changes hands in the economy -- is not what one might expect during a bull market. One bond manager points to high-debt levels.
Updated: January 20, 2017Residential real estate prices in major global cities rebounded sharply during the current bull market, especially at the high-end. Now, real estate developers grapple with price deflation. At least one real estate indicator is flashing a bigger warning than it did in 2007.
Updated: January 17, 2017If you count on standard credit rating agencies for timely warnings, you might find yourself "behind the 8-ball." Time and again, downgrades have occurred after the damage has already been done. Now is the time to protect your portfolio.
Updated: January 6, 2017Day-trading in the stock market is all about the hope of making a fast buck. Today, the same psychology is at work in another financial arena. Hint: We've been here before.
Updated: January 5, 2017The fear of a European deflation among the Continent's financial authorities has almost melted away. Indeed, the majority of surveyed economists see an inflation jump just ahead. But, there's another way to look at the data.
Updated: December 27, 2016In part 2 of our in-depth interview with Steve Hochberg, Steve explains what else makes Elliott wave analysis so useful and practical.
Updated: December 23, 2016Steve Hochberg, our Chief Market Analyst, sits down with ElliottWaveTV to talk about his background, how he discovered the Wave Principle, and why "it's applicable to all markets."
Updated: November 8, 2016Nine of our top market strategists offer a sneak peek of sentiment in their markets ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Updated: November 7, 2016Almost no one expected a dramatic decline in housing prices in January 2006. At the time, 43% of first-time home buyers were putting no money down. Six months later, housing prices topped. Today, owners of entry-level homes are once again highly leveraged.
Updated: November 7, 2016Pete Kendall, the co-editor of our monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, tells you more about the just-published Financial Forecast's special Election section.
Updated: October 26, 2016The days of $20 doctor house calls and affordable hospital stays for the uninsured are long gone. Chalk it up to government involvement in healthcare. Now we learn that "Obamacare" premiums will sharply rise in 2017. Prepare for what's next.
Updated: October 21, 2016Relying on government to financially secure your retirement might be a big mistake. Social Security is a wealth-transfer program that's headed for a major crisis. State and local government pensions are also in trouble. Are you prepared for what the book Conquer the Crash warns about?
Updated: October 17, 2016Stock market price trends tell you much more than if portfolios are gaining or losing value. They give you a good idea of what to expect in society at large. For example, stocks lead the economy. Stocks lead movie productions. Stocks even lead inventors to invent.
Updated: September 30, 2016The world's financial system appears to again be at risk. Big trouble is brewing at big banks. Hedge funds are pulling billions of dollars from a financial giant the IMF calls the world's riskiest bank. Get financially safe now.
Updated: September 28, 2016Many public pension funds appear on the brink of full-blown crisis. The financial numbers are alarming, even as the stock market trades near a record high. Police and firefighters in one big city are "quitting in droves" because they fear their promised pensions are in jeopardy.
Updated: September 21, 2016The September 20-21 FOMC meeting is over, and the word-parsing has begun. But while many see the Fed as the final word on the future of the U.S. economy and stock market, the real impotence of the world’s largest central bank might surprise you.
Updated: September 13, 2016When a topic seems to be driving a lot of media chatter, you can quantify it to see if something more than chatter is at work. Case in point: 'Fiscal Stimulus.' Which, it turns out, is quantifiable indeed...
Updated: September 9, 2016In late July, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a massive, $267 billion stimulus package -- the largest of the prior 23 years, if you don’t count the one during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. While most investors are wondering whether the stimulus this time will be effective, our analysis gives you a completely different perspective on the announcement.
Updated: September 8, 2016We warned about deflation when others scoffed at the idea. Now, deflation has taken a foothold around the globe, and U.S. farmers and grocery store operators are feeling the pain. Food prices have tumbled as a result of deepening deflationary forces. Prepare now for the next phase when no one will doubt this developing trend.
Updated: September 8, 2016In March 2015, the European Central Bank launched its unprecedented QE program in hopes of jump-starting the eurozone economy and reigniting stock prices. Instead, Europe’s no.1 market, Germany’s DAX index plummeted into a 10-month long bear market. That’s just the tip of this story...
Updated: September 7, 2016Why are governments paying into public pensions? Why is the rate of increase in government payments so much greater? This chart speaks to the health of public pension funds. In a word, that health issue is "underfunded."
Updated: September 2, 2016On August 31, Wall Street officially bid adieu to the fiscal Q2 2016. And, according to the experts, “better-than-estimated earnings” lifted U.S. stocks to record highs. The problem is, that’s just one side of the story. The other side you don’t want to miss.
Updated: August 24, 2016The next big monetary event is approaching fast. No, it's not inflation. The evidence is mounting that deflation already has a foothold and is gaining ground. These two charts reveal a disturbing trend for anyone who's unprepared.
Updated: August 24, 2016European Markets Expert Brian Whitmer sits down with ElliottWaveTV and stresses that investors are in a risk-on mindset, something we’ve seen “time and time again.”
Updated: August 22, 2016Network television viewership is dropping, and so is interest in the Olympics. What does this have to do with bull and bear markets? Plenty.
Updated: August 16, 2016Recent headlines say the housing market is "booming." There's no support for that claim in the trend of homeownership. (1:48)
Updated: August 4, 2016The federal government is good at lending taxpayer money to borrowers who are unable or unwilling to pay it back. It happened during the housing bust, and now, some seven million people are in default on their student loans. Find out why we anticipate that the number will rise dramatically.
Updated: August 4, 2016Pete Kendall tells you that although stocks recently hit new all-time highs, there is a great slackening in the economy -- but not for the reasons you commonly hear about in the news. To watch the interview or read the transcript, click on the link below.
Updated: August 1, 2016The U.S. economy grew at a snail's pace in Q2. The preliminary GDP annual growth rate of 1.2% took polled economists by surprise. They expected an increase more than twice that high. Find out how we anticipate economic trend changes.
Updated: July 29, 2016Eating out is a bull market phenomenon. When people are in an upbeat mood, they tend to splurge at restaurants on food and drinks. But a shift appears underway. One analyst sees similarities to the first half of 2007, just before a major financial downturn.
Updated: July 29, 2016"The economy leads, and the stock market follows." This common assumption is easy to check -- all you have to do is look at the data.
Updated: July 27, 2016U.S. public pension fund returns have been hurt by a long stretch of low interest rates. Today, the funding gap stands at an astounding $3.4 trillion. Our research and others' suggests the bankruptcies of Detroit and San Bernardino may be only previews of what's to come for at least five other major cities on the brink of insolvency.
Updated: July 26, 2016Building permits help answer the question, "What's next for builders, developers, the construction business and real estate in the U.S.?" You can see for yourself that building permits can be an excellent early indicator for real estate.
Updated: July 21, 2016This measure shows you the growth in Real Per Capita GDP -- it adjusts for population, and it adjusts for inflation. It's all built into one trend line. That's a far more revealing picture of the economy. And, it's especially telling regarding the future -- specifically, the future of incomes...
Updated: June 22, 2016Germany served as an anchor of stability during Europe's sovereign debt crisis. The nation is the Continent's largest economy. Even so, Germany's stock market now looks poised for increased volatility. Also, take a look at this downtrending stock chart of the country's largest steel maker.
Updated: June 17, 2016The Federal Reserve is troubled by the jobs market, and for good reason. The central bank's own Labor Market Conditions Index is at its lowest level in seven years. Also, a record 95 million Americans are not in the labor force. Now is the time to prepare for what we see ahead.
Updated: June 7, 2016"Bad, bad, bad" is how a global forecaster describes the May U.S. jobs report, the single worst for jobs growth in almost six years. Also, for the first time since the financial crisis, Wall Street pay has turned lower across almost all lines of business. Here's our forecast for Wall Street employment.
Updated: June 3, 2016The delinquency rate among subprime auto loans is rising, even as total auto loan liabilities exceed $1 trillion. The CEO of the nation's largest bank raises a red flag. The Wall Street Journal calls it a "subprime flashback." Prepare now for what we see ahead.
Updated: May 31, 2016The U.S. has just imposed a new tariff on steel imports from China. Trade wars between nations are the result of a defensive psychology. Prepare now for a trend toward protectionism.
Updated: May 27, 2016Millennials financially struggle long after the Great Recession officially ended. More than half of those who move out "boomerang" back to Mom and Dad. How much do millennials earn? Take a look at this graphic.
Updated: May 26, 2016How much faith to you put in a company's earnings data to gauge its future growth potential? Well, we have four shocking truths about the real value of earnings that will radically change the way you see this time-honored measure.
Updated: May 12, 2016In this new interview with Pete Kendall, the editor of our Financial Forecast, he explains why he thinks we're at a turning point, or "phase transition" in politics, along with a turning point in real estate -- and what this means for the financial markets.
Updated: May 9, 2016The April U.S. jobs report reveals that fewer people are participating in the labor force. The oil industry has been hit particularly hard and shows what can happen to an entire economy when deflation dominates. See a chart of another sector that has seen a multi-year job decline.
Updated: May 4, 2016Brian Whitmer, one of our emerging markets experts, talks about the Puerto Rican debt crisis and explains why the country's recent default "was not a surprise" to him and others at EWI.
Updated: May 4, 2016Brian Whitmer, one of our emerging markets experts, talks about the Puerto Rican debt crisis and explains why the country's recent default "was not a surprise" to him and others at EWI.
Updated: May 2, 2016Have you ever wondered why the U.S. economy remains weak even after unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus? The reason boils down to just two words: deflationary psychology. Now is the time to prepare for what we see ahead.
Updated: April 25, 2016A big percentage of pension benefits go poof! Workers protest to no avail. The government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation is broke. Take the steps to secure your retirement now.
Updated: April 20, 2016The results are in: Two- plus months of negative interest rates has had no positive impact on Japan's economy. "It's like being Alice in Wonderland," observes one strategist. But, in our opinion, there's nothing "curiouser" about the futility of free money to revive Japan's credit markets.
Updated: April 13, 2016Over the last year, Walmart has gone from retail victor to re-FAIL victim of falling sales growth, store closures, layoffs, and on. Who's to blame for Walmart's reversal of fortune? Hint: It's not the strong dollar. It's deflation.
Updated: April 11, 2016The Great Recession "officially" ended nearly seven years ago, yet the U.S. economy still struggles to find its footing. Evidence reveals a steady deflationary slide is already underway, yet few investors are aware, much fewer prepared. "Make no mistake about it. It's a global story."
Updated: April 4, 2016Housing market analysts expect prices to climb again in 2016. But one EWI subscriber expresses caution. Learn what he just told The New York Times.
Updated: April 1, 2016The April 1 U.S. Department of Labor report showed a 5% unemployment rate. The mainstream experts hailed this as a sign of "robust" growth. We, on the other hand, call April Fool's!
Updated: March 29, 2016Learn why these new bonds are such risky instruments.
Updated: March 17, 2016Does the Fed's interest rate policy determine the direction of stocks and the economy? Many Fed watchers believe so. Perhaps they have not seen these two charts.
Updated: March 4, 2016It's been over 80 years since the world plunged into a devastating deflation. Now, an entire lifetime later, the evidence for this rare event is appearing again. Look at these two charts.
Updated: February 26, 2016The Oscar-nominated movie "The Big Short" is a gripping story of a group of no-name outsiders who warned of the 2007-9 housing/subprime mortgage collapse. We at Elliott Wave International know that story all too well...
Updated: February 24, 2016Some financial authorities want to take away your cash. Now is the time to find a safe place to store your greenbacks. See a chart that shows how "deflation is winning."
Updated: February 18, 2016Real estate agents say that today's near-record low mortgage rates means it's a good time to buy a house. But is it? See a chart that debunks a common belief about housing prices, and learn about warning signs that are reminders of the 2006 housing bubble.
Updated: February 9, 2016For the financial markets, the biggest event of the week starts tomorrow: On Wednesday and Thursday (Feb. 10-11) Fed chair Janet Yellen will appear before Congress to deliver her semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.
Updated: February 1, 2016In 2003, we warned about the trend toward socialized healthcare and taxes. Now, the fines for the uninsured have increased in 2016. Now is the time to prepare for what's next.
Updated: January 21, 2016Alibaba's stock market debut -- BABA -- was supposed to be the can't-lose, golden IPO of 2015. But then, the stock plunged 30% and stands near its initial offer price. While it's easy to blame China's contracting economy for the BABA bust, that wouldn't be true.
Updated: January 14, 2016Financial optimism was on full display in 1999 and 2006. The rich were splurging as the stock market zoomed higher. Bear markets soon followed. Now, as we kick off 2016, the affluent are partying like it's 1999 and 2006.
Updated: January 7, 2016An important sector of the U.S. economy has contracted for the second month in a row. Deflation is a rare condition that's occurred only twice in U.S. history. Has the third episode already started?
Updated: January 4, 2016In 2015, the mainstream experts said falling oil prices would help jump-start the economy. It goes without saying, this forecast did not come to pass as planned. The full story might surprise you.
Updated: December 29, 2015Over the last year, investors' appetite for risk has gone from red hot to lukewarm, culminating in the recent junk bond bust. Get the real story of the reversal here...
Updated: December 17, 2015chart of the day | Here we have the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Spread. It's one of those indicators you don't see enough of in the financial media, even though it's a lot more predictive and relevant to investors, versus all of this week's hoopla about the Federal Reserve.
Updated: December 11, 2015The transition from risk-taking to risk-aversion started off gradually in 2007. Then it suddenly accelerated. Our analysts see evidence that a similar pattern is repeating itself. Look at these two charts.
Updated: December 7, 2015A study shows that changes in women's shoes reflect changes in the economy. The women in the hit television show "Sex in the City" often wore stiletto heels, but in 2015 heels are flat or chunky. Learn more about this and other unusual economic indicators.
Updated: December 3, 2015Big banks remain more fragile than most people realize. Many financial institutions never really recovered from the 2007-2009 financial crisis. A new report opens your eyes to the secret new government tax.
Updated: November 24, 2015Robert Prechter talks about his developing theory on finance with Douglass Lodmell for The Mind Of Money series.
Updated: November 24, 2015chart of the day | See a chart of two indexes, which represent two strongly-related sectors in the financial industry -- namely, banking and hedge funds. At a glance, the patterns look similar. But there is more to this story.
Updated: November 23, 2015Copper's uses are so widespread that earned a nickname for "diagnosing" the economy -- as in, "Dr. Copper." Well, Dr. Copper's prices have not been doing that great. On Nov. 23, MarketWatch reported that, "Copper futures slumped to six-year lows..."
Updated: November 16, 2015The stock of an economic bellwether has been taking it on the chin. This, along with other signs, could portend an extended period of deflation. Take a look at these two charts.
Updated: November 10, 2015chart of the day | This chart shows you the annual percentage change in the consumer price index -- or CPI -- of the world's 37 advanced economies. CPI tracks prices that households pay for a basket of goods and services. And here's what's relevant about this chart...
Updated: October 30, 2015Investors and presidential hopefuls alike have been criticizing the Federal Reserve. The central bank appears uncertain about its monetary policy. Will the Fed even be around in 10 years?
Updated: October 29, 2015The evidence is clear. The stock market leads the economy contrary to popular belief. Episode 2 of the Elliott Wave Pillars series walks you through the overwhelming evidence that proves this point without a doubt.
Updated: October 27, 2015In the early 1990s, two simple words transformed the way the U.S. consumer saw it: "Got Milk?" Suddenly, the narrative changed from an obligatory drink you had to finish as a kid -- into a sexy, funny, and above all desirable treat for all ages. Until now...
Updated: October 26, 2015Deflation is already a reality in many quarters of the global economy. Mounting evidence suggests that the full fury of this trend is about to be unleashed. Give our just-released dispatch on deflation your immediate attention.
Updated: October 14, 2015What is more likely: an asteroid hitting the earth or deflation? A famous hedge fund manager gives his opinion. You can review the evidence for yourself.
Updated: October 7, 2015Homeowners were using their homes as ATMs around the time of the 2006 peak in housing prices. Today, many people are again borrowing against their homes. Learn why the housing market is prone to "boom and bust."
Updated: October 6, 2015Almost everyone wants to know if and when the Fed will hike the fed funds rate. But the central bank faces an acute dilemma...
Updated: September 28, 2015Many view bear markets as simply a downturn in stock prices. But societal changes also tend to accompany trend changes in the stock market. Will the "gender barrier" be shattered in the months ahead?
Updated: September 23, 2015Many U.S. dollar bears have expected inflation to trigger a collapse in the greenback. But inflation has been missing in action. Only one asset is sure to gain value during deflation.
Updated: September 18, 2015The Fed's 2% inflation target remains elusive even after a prolonged period of near-zero interest rates. We see evidence of a rare economic trend that the Fed will be powerless against. See two charts that help to explain.
Updated: September 11, 2015U.S. housing prices remain far below their 2005 highs. Even so, we see signs that investors have re-kindled the old real estate mania. Their timing may prove financially disastrous.
Updated: September 10, 2015What you're looking at is a chart of... failure. This humble graph shows you changes in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, or PCE. It's like the consumer price index, but PCE better reflects what consumers actually consume.
Updated: September 9, 2015Many investors believe that the Federal Reserve holds sway over markets and the economy. But a former chairman of the U.S. central bank says monetary policy cannot solve everything. See a chart that shows what central bankers are up against.
Updated: August 31, 2015The only thing the Fed has to show for its purchase of $1.5 trillion worth of Treasuries (QE) is a high-priced stock market. Now even that may be crumbling. The credibility of the central bank is on the line.
Updated: August 27, 2015China's economy is slowing. Its stock market began to crash back in July. And, the volatility rocking financial markets has been widely linked to the recent yuan devaluations by China's central bank. Speaking of that...
Updated: August 24, 2015This credit-fueled financial vehicle traveled northward at breakneck speed. Two charts suggest that the return trip southward has only started.
Updated: August 14, 2015This economic indicator has stood the test of time -- and it's sending an ominous message. A 3 1/2-year shelf of support has recently been broken. See two charts that tell you what you need to know now.
Updated: August 13, 2015U.S. retail sales rose in July, but to get the full picture, you need to see the two charts EWI's Chief Market Analyst recently shared with a packed house at the San Francisco MoneyShow.
Updated: August 3, 2015The U.S. GDP growth has just been revised upward. That, many experts say, sets the stage for a stock market rally -- because the economy leads and the stock market follows. Right? At least, that’s what almost everyone believes. But even a brief glance at recent history proves otherwise.
Updated: July 31, 2015Prolonged profligate spending has landed Greece, Puerto Rico and many U.S. municipalities in financial hot water. The water is about to boil over and almost everyone will be scalded. Learn what Alan Greenspan just called "extremely dangerous."
Updated: July 16, 2015Introducing the newest crop of "oddball loans" -- bonds backed by dirty laundry. Here's why these "esoteric" assets are just one sign that stock market bulls may soon get hung out to dry.
Updated: June 19, 2015Federal government liabilities have reached a post-financial crisis high. And the Federal Reserve explains why another financial crisis is likely.
Updated: June 17, 2015Never before has the world piled up so much debt. A day of reckoning is at hand. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office just said that "the long-term outlook for the federal budget has worsened dramatically."
Updated: June 5, 2015One economic indicator just marked its eighth straight week of declines. Another just turned in its worst five-year run since the early 1980s. Yet, there's even more evidence that the economy is on very shaky ground.
Updated: June 4, 2015On June 2, the Wall Street Journal asked why the American consumer has become so "stingy." Today, we have the answer, and it might surprise you.
Updated: June 2, 2015A year ago, economists were predicting a sustained 3% growth rate for the U.S. economy. Yet the government just said that the economy contracted at a 0.7% annualized rate in Q1. See a chart that shows a "relentless decline" in a key economic measure.
Updated: June 2, 2015Even if there are bubbles, "no one knows when these things will end," writes a May 31 CNN Money article. Now where and when have we heard this before?!
Updated: March 29, 2015Our Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg addressed why it the Dow priced in gold is important in this 3-minute clip.
Updated: March 28, 2015Answer: Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit. ...
Updated: March 28, 2015Answer: The U.S. government's Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation guarantee just makes things far worse, for two reasons. ...
Updated: March 3, 2015Manufacturing jobs were the foundation of the U.S. economy. But since 1979, manufacturing jobs have been disappearing. We've gone from "making things" to "financing things." Learn why this is a harbinger of economic deterioration.
Updated: March 2, 2015In the clip from Steve Hochberg’s recent interview with MarketWrap Radio, our Chief Market Analyst explains that in a deflationary environment, you shouldn't expect to get a return on your money. Instead... Well, listen.
Updated: February 27, 2015Many retirees could receive a smaller payout from their pension plans than they expect. Once considered out of the question, pension plan cuts are now on the table. One governor has just proposed a freeze on his state's pension plan.
Updated: February 25, 2015In this interview, EWI's Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg explains why the Fed and ECB don't really control the markets.
Updated: February 20, 2015In this interview, EWI's Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg gives you our take on talk about the stock market and recent volatility.
Updated: December 31, 2014More than half of all student loan borrowers are behind in their payments. Some student loans may never be paid back. Guess who will probably foot the bill? Prepare now for a debt implosion in U.S. student loans.
Updated: December 30, 2014Can the bull market continue without a stronger economy? Many people would say, no -- but when you dig a little deeper, you quickly discover that it's not supported by the facts.
Updated: November 26, 2014Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, peace, terrorism, inflation, monetary policy -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market. Here's the conclusion of our 10-part series.
Updated: November 26, 2014Today's dollar-denominated debt stands at $59 trillion. This is more than a mere statistic. See a chart that shows what happened the last time a credit boom turned excessive.
Updated: November 24, 2014At its inception in 2013, EWI warned that Abenomics would fail to rescue Japan's economy from deflation. Now, a November 20 New York Times article confirms our forecast: "It's time to call Abenomics a failure."
Updated: November 12, 2014In case you haven't heard, "good deflation" will actually benefit the U.S. economy. The pro-deflation defense comes down to THREE main arguments...
Updated: November 11, 2014The Fed runs the market. Right? Well, "see if you can tell on this chart where authorities intervened."
Updated: October 28, 2014This idea of gold as inflation hedge is practically gospel. This chart shows a major flaw in this theory.
Updated: October 22, 2014As bad news goes, terrorism is at the top of the list. Why then do stocks ignore these terrible events so often?
Updated: October 17, 2014In 2002, Conquer the Crash was virtually alone in warning about deflation. Now, European government officials acknowledge that the Continent faces deflation. More than that, the financial press is now raising concern about the prospects of a U.S. deflation. Are you prepared?
Updated: October 16, 2014"Peace lets companies innovate and compete, helping the economy." True -- and yet, stocks will go where they go.
Updated: October 6, 2014"Some economists say wars stimulate the economy; others say war hurts it." These 4 charts negate both cases.
Updated: September 25, 2014A famous hedge fund manager recently said that deflation "is less likely than an asteroid hitting the earth." Yet, Europe already faces very low inflation and outright deflation, and Japan just suffered a stunning economic setback.
Updated: September 12, 2014"GDP reflects corporate success. So do stock prices. So how could GDP not impact stocks?" -- Solid logic, and yet...
Updated: September 10, 2014"U.S. trade deficit seems to be a reasonable thing to worry about." This chart shows you why it's really not.
Updated: September 9, 2014"Rising oil prices reduce corporate and consumer spending, impacting stocks and the economy." Right? Wrong.
Updated: June 2, 2014In 2008, Europe's economy came crashing down. Ever since, the EU's monetary engineers have been trying to stabilize the sinking consumer foundation and sliding banking sector. Yet, take a look at these two charts.
Updated: February 3, 2014Positive economic reports are said to be bullish for the stock market, while negative data are bearish. But is this accurate? What a strange question, you may say -- but please take a look at this chart...
Updated: January 9, 2014Financial media pundits like to talk about a "rebound" in the economy, but a new EWI economic report presents important facts that have gone underreported -- until now.
Updated: November 27, 2013Borrowers who took out home equity loans during the heyday of the housing boom now face a big burden. And so do the banks that sold home equity lines of credit like they were cheap credit cards. One economist calls it a pending "wave of disaster."
Updated: November 11, 2013We here at EWI believe that you should prepare for an unprecedented credit implosion. See this chart that shows why you need to position your portfolio for a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence.
Updated: August 26, 2013The historically low default rate of municipal bonds is a lure that will trap millions of unsuspecting investors. The list of American cities facing severe budget shortfalls and huge pension liabilities is long. Which city will be the next Detroit?
Updated: August 21, 2013From the start of 2013 to late June, gold prices took a 20% nosedive to their lowest level in three years. But if you think an improving economy took the wind out of gold's sails, the last six decades of history might surprise you.
Updated: August 21, 2013The Federal Reserve's assets have soared since its quantitative easing programs started in 2008. One chart shows why so many investors are positioned for inflation. Learn why they will probably be caught off guard.
Updated: June 28, 2013European deflation has arrived in the U.S. before. So, it's worth asking the question: Is history set to repeat? Consider what has been happening recently in the European Union and the United States.
Updated: May 6, 2013Marie Antoinette had been a spendthrift early in her reign, but curtailed that habit when she learned what the public thought. Even so, the young French queen had already been nicknamed "Madame Deficit." French debt had ballooned before she and King Louis XVI took the throne. But they received the blame for France's financial straits. Now fast forward to the U.S. economy today. Get ready for the blame game to turn serious.
Updated: April 26, 2013Nothing short of a complete overhaul will get the U.S. economic engine purring again. The financial mechanics have been trying to get that engine firing on all cylinders for five years now. They've used every tool at their disposal. Yet the engine continues to sputter. There appears to be only one fix.
Updated: April 17, 2013"If you want to know where the global economy is headed, check the oil markets," says one economist. Let's see if this theory holds as we look at a couple of crude oil charts.
Updated:We start with a new interview with Elliott Wave International's Asian-Pacific Markets Expert. Next week take a look at money velocity and explain how you can learn a lot from watching "how fast money changes hands." Lastly, we explain why higher delinquencies should soon be a reality.
Updated:As the amount of household debt rises, so does the risk of another financial crisis. Learn why the next debt implosion could be bigger than the one 10 years ago. Next up, our Currency Pro Service editor gives you his outlook for the dollar. Our last feature lays out evidence that shows economic news impacts the stock market less than you may think.
Updated:Learn why the recent price action in gold suggests to him that gold prices may be entering a risky period soon. Plus, one high-yield debt instrument that was at the forefront of the 2007-2009 financial crisis has reached a new, dangerous milestone and we're sounding the alarm. Lastly, at least one measure of optimism has returned to the height of the bubble days. Some say not to worry because "the economy is in far better shape than a decade ago." Is today really different?
Updated:If you were to randomly pick three stories from the "recent news" hat, you might come up with 1) Marijuana, 2) Barbie, 3) Cyber attacks. They sure seem like random topics, right? Well, these stories are our picks this week, but they were not chosen randomly -- each one includes a strong and observable element of collective human activity. And that means mood. Let's get started.
Updated:Our first segment gives you a sneak peek of what analysts at Elliott Wave International have been watching in U.S. and global stocks, forex, metals, interest rates, energy and social mood. Next we take a look at legalization of recreational marijuana and answer the important question, why now? Lastly, we take a deeper look at Obamacare and reveal the real reason it's coming unglued.
Updated:After you peel back the spectacle, a lot of news these days is hard to read. Threats and hard-to-calculate risks dwell right below the surface. Yet an understanding of social mood allows you to go deeper than 'right below the surface' -- you can actually get to the bottom of the story. And not just one story… but the trend itself, which drives so many otherwise unrelated events.
Updated:More than 80 percent of economists predicted it would happen. The Fed would raise interest rates. It would be the 'All Clear' signal for the economy. But... it didn't happen. The entire economics profession was caught off guard. Listen to the 'follow up story' you won't get anyplace else.
Updated:This week we tackle the big stuff -- President meets President. Fed Policy. Which Party is in Power. And then there's the re-incarnated Muppets...
Updated:The stories this week span a wide range -- from the relationship between the economy and the stock market to "espionage software" in North Korea to waning complacency regarding the threat of nuclear weapons. Plus, this week's episode revisits a scandal that's still making headlines.
Updated:How do you define "Deflation"? Hint: It begins with psychology, NOT with falling prices. Deflation turns the economy and financial world upside down, to the point that borrowers get PAID by lenders. Get the 9-minute story in this episode of Pop Trends, Price Culture.
Updated:First you'll hear from our Chief Commodity analyst, Jeffrey Kennedy. Learn what he thinks of extreme volatility in commodities, he also offers his big picture perspective -- and reveals when he expects the next major low. Our Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg recently spoke to a packed house at a San Francisco investment show -- this next clip is an excerpt from that presentation. Steve goes through copper's price action and explains how it can actually be used as a market indicator to foreshadow a weakening economy. In today's last feature, EWI correspondent Bob Stokes also reports commodity prices. As Bob explains, one index recently fell to an 11-year low and commodity price declines have recently accelerated. This downtrend points to a rare economic trend -- deflation.
Updated:All three of today's features come to us from EWI correspondent Bob Stokes. First you'll hear about " financial zombies", then we'll switch over to the Fed and last you'll hear about how the U.S. is on the precipice of deflation. Halloween has past, but the financial walking dead are still among us. In this first feature, correspondent Bob Stokes takes look at a financial services firm that has seen its share price drop, despite aggressive stock buybacks. Investors and presidential hopefuls alike have been criticizing the Federal Reserve. The central bank appears uncertain about its monetary policy. Correspondent Bob Stokes poses an interesting question: Will the Fed even be around in 10 years? Deflation is already a reality in many quarters of the global economy. And mounting evidence suggests that the full fury of this trend is about to be unleashed.
Updated:Many investors believe that the Federal Reserve holds sway over markets and the economy. But a former chairman of the U.S. central bank says monetary policy cannot solve everything. Has the Fed become Utterly Irrelevant? Correspondent Bob Stokes explains what central bankers are up against.Should investors base market decisions on fundamental or technical analysis? A new study sheds light on this important question. Learn how the Elliott wave model helped prepare our subscribers for the recently ramped up market volatility. Japan's economic glory days in the 1980s now looks like ancient history. Indeed, some analysts say the outlook is so grim that a worst-case scenario is inevitable. Our last report is also from correspondent Bob Stokes who assesses the possibility of a default for Japan.
Updated:This week marked another exciting one on Wall Street. A well-known financial publication suggests that now is the time to invest for the long term. Such an approach might be hazardous to your portfolio. Learn if the latest stock market decline is actually a buying opportunity. Market tops have always formed slowly, not a blowoff as many investors believe. Bob Stokes explained why this is important for today's market and your wallet. An important sector of the U.S. economy has contracted for the second month in a row. Deflation is a rare condition that's occurred only twice in U.S. history - learn if the third episode has already began.
Updated:This week's episode starts off with a look at another financial crisis that will bring widespread bank failures. Big banks remain more fragile than most people realize. Many financial institutions never really recovered from the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Elliott Wave International correspondent Bob stokes reports on a new report that will open your eyes to the secret new government tax. This next feature is a clip from an interview Robert Prechter recorded Douglass Lodmell for The Mind Of Money series. Take a listen as Bob talks about his developing theory on finance and explains how financial markets are a psychological phenomenon. Today's last report from correspondent Bob Stokes looks at a study that found that changes in women's shoes reflect changes in the economy. You may remember that the women in the hit television show "Sex in the City" often wore stiletto heels, but in 2015 heels are flat or chunky. Learn more about this and other unusual economic indicators.