168 Results

Deflation Basics Series: The Quantity Theory of Money

Updated: October 16, 2017

In order to be aware of the investment pitfalls and opportunities that deflation can bring, we must first understand the basic elements of why it occurs...

Is This Eastern U.S. City Headed Toward Default?

Updated: September 29, 2017

Many U.S. municipalities face a large and looming financial crisis. With the stock market's string of record highs getting most of the headlines, this next likely crisis will seem to arrive out of nowhere. Remember how the 2007-2009 financial crisis caught most everyone flat-footed? Find out what EWI analysts expect.

Trouble Knocks on the U.S. Housing Market's Door

Updated: September 7, 2017

Troublesome developments are occurring in the U.S. housing market. Media outlets are saying that "an acute shortage of properties" is hurting sales. But, the real story is revealed in these chart patterns.

Peak Credit

Updated: August 30, 2017

The latest figures for consumer credit in the US showed a lower-than-expected increase of $12.4 billion in June.

This Is Why So Many Are AGAIN Ill-Prepared for the Next Economic Crisis

Updated: August 18, 2017

Is the proverbial "rainy day" upon us? If so, two developments indicate that many people are financially unprepared. Also, find out why our September Elliott Wave Theorist just published an entire month early.

This "Most Important Economic Indicator" Might Surprise You

Updated: August 16, 2017

Would you like to know what the health of the economy will be like months ahead of time? This rarely discussed "economic indicator" has a history of serving as a useful guide. See for yourself.

Another Warning Sign Atop Debt Mountain

Updated: August 9, 2017

The trip up the side of Debt Mountain is getting more treacherous. A new milestone has been reached. Learn the lesson that financial history teaches.

Fed Concerned About Debt Deflation

Updated: July 13, 2017

We anticipate that many more borrowers will welch on their obligations as debt starts to deflate.

This is Why the Mortgage Market Suddenly Looks Riskier

Updated: July 10, 2017

Some U.S. real estate markets have bounced back strongly since the Great Recession while others have languished. All told, "the recovery is spotty at best." Now, two new developments are adding risk to the mortgage market.

China's Money and Credit

Updated: July 7, 2017

In 1939, Sir Winston Churchill said that Russia was "... a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." The same could be said of China today.

Eat Well for Less

Updated: June 30, 2017

Food prices in the USA are under pressure at the moment – but should we see this as a general trend towards deflation?

A "Mortgage Meltdown" Culprit Makes a Return

Updated: June 23, 2017

The housing market is heating up -- again. Signs are appearing that are reminders of the previous housing boom. "Buyers are convinced values will only continue to climb ... ." Is the housing trend near a reversal?

Debt Crisis 2.0: How the Pieces are Falling into Place

Updated: June 21, 2017

As the amount of household debt rises, so does the risk of another financial crisis. A new milestone has been reached in the U.S. But a chart shows that the dangers of debt are global.

U.S. Housing: "Not Since the Mania Days"

Updated: June 5, 2017

The U.S. housing market has staged a significant rebound since prices bottomed in February 2012. Now, at least one measure of optimism has returned to the height of the bubble days. Some say not to worry because "the economy is in far better shape than a decade ago." Is today really different?

Taking the Temperature of Global Warming Fever

Updated: June 2, 2017

Critics say President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement dealt a setback to the global-warming cause. But, the evidence suggests that "global-warming fever" had already been cooling off. "Crowds often think their personal cause of the moment is a permanent issue. It almost never is."

Contracting Triangle: How This Bullish Forecast Worked Out

Updated: May 30, 2017

In 2016, the prevailing sentiment toward China's economy was negative. Yet, if investors had avoided China's internet sector, they would have missed a significant advance. The whole episode teaches a valuable lesson.

A Record "Bye-Bye" to Brick and Mortar?

Updated: May 19, 2017

News about today's economy only talks about "growth." The true story this chart tells isn't reported nearly as often.

Preview: The Coming Real Estate Trend and Turn?

Updated: May 4, 2017

Toronto is the 4th largest city in North America and anchors a greater metropolitan region of nine million -- more than a quarter of Canada's entire population. A city this size is an ideal candidate to preview real estate trends in Canada and in the United States...

Puerto Rico: "You can't get more deflationary than that."

Updated: May 4, 2017

Cash-strapped Puerto Rico is unable to meet its debt obligations as a key deadline passes. Investors in the Commonwealth's General Obligation Bonds have taken a big haircut. Other municipalities are next in line.

An Update on the Escalating "War on Cash"

Updated: April 28, 2017

Cash is the one asset that is almost sure to rise in value during a deflationary period. Yet, the "war on cash" has been escalating. Here's why you should start storing away plenty of cash.

Earn a Wage or a Salary? This Chart's For You

Updated: April 28, 2017

This humble chart shows REAL average weekly wages -- and why a bigger paycheck does NOT necessarily mean more purchasing power. See why purchasing power has been flat for a decade.

"Extend and Pretend" and Other Signs of the Coming "Car Crash"

Updated: April 24, 2017

Delinquencies have been increasing for subprime car loans. Yet, car dealers are unfazed and have been allowing buyers to "trade in underwater vehicles two or three times." The credit boom is reaching an extreme.

Euro Stocks and EU Economy: Extreme Optimism Returns

Updated: April 17, 2017

According to the mainstream pundits, the long-awaited "Easter-egg hunt" of recovery in Europe's economy and stock markets is over! Optimism is off the charts. But it's what's ON our charts that warns caution.

What to Expect for Interest Rates During Deflation

Updated: April 7, 2017

The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.

Why the Glowing Jobs Number Was No Surprise

Updated: March 13, 2017

In February, the U.S. jobless rate fell to 4.7% as the economy added 235,000 non-farm payrolls. Some people attribute the economic improvement to the new president. Here's why the added jobs were anticipated well before the U.S. election.

How the Psychology of Deflation is Manifesting Itself Today

Updated: March 7, 2017

Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash states: "The psychological aspect of deflation ... cannot be overstated." The manifestations of this psychology are already appearing. Learn where -- and how.

U.S. Household Debt: A New, Alarming Milestone

Updated: February 23, 2017

U.S. debt is on the rise and could reach a milestone level sometime in 2017. Student debt has risen for 18 consecutive years, and subprime loans are a growing worry in another sector. See these charts to understand the threat.

The UK Consumer Battle Cry: "Chaaarge... it!"

Updated: February 21, 2017

In 2016, the UK enjoyed its biggest credit boom ever, as consumers piled on debt hand over fist. Question: Is this really a sign of an economy running on all cylinders? Read our perspective today.

Here's What Precedes Every Recession by 10 Months

Updated: February 14, 2017

Many recent survey respondents see clear skies ahead for the U.S. economy. But there's an important historic insight that investors need to know about today's economic optimism.

Bear Markets + World Trade = Bad Outcomes?

Updated: February 14, 2017

We've all read about, heard about and watched the many negative political headlines from across the planet. If you're an investor, you have to wonder: What does it all mean for world trade and global markets? That question is too broad to answer with one graph or visual, but: We do have a chart to start the conversation.

A New Greek Debt Drama Takes Center Stage

Updated: February 13, 2017

Greece's debt drama has returned to center stage. But global financiers are balking at another bailout. Meanwhile, Europe's banking system remains fragile. There's only one way "Europe's seemingly endless series of financial crises will end."

A Trillion Dollars in Auto Debt: On Borrowed Time?

Updated: February 9, 2017

What else is built into this TRILLION dollars of auto debt? Well, with a bubble there's always more. Click 'play' to see what we see...

Investors Injured by Classic Inflation Hedges

Updated: February 8, 2017

In 2016, the U.S. inflation rate rose from 1.4% in January to 2.1% in December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. So, how did classic inflation hedges perform? Let's take a look at two.

Eurozone is Nearing Target Inflation Rates — Is it as Good as it Seems?

Updated: February 8, 2017

The Eurozone, led by Germany and France, is approaching inflation targets with overall inflation for Eurozone countries coming in near 1.8%, just a little below ECB's official 2% target. But looking below the surface, all may not be quite as it seems. Brian Whitmer, the editor of the European Financial Forecast, offers his take.

A Radical Re-Thinking of the U.S. Trade Deficit

Updated: February 7, 2017

News flash: The 2016 U.S. trade deficit was the largest since 2012, fueling President Trump’s fire to narrow the nation’s gap and bolster the economy. But this research shows historical evidence that suggests this approach could seriously backfire.

The Decline of the U.S. Shopping Mall

Updated: February 1, 2017

U.S. shopping malls have seen better days. Now, foot traffic is dwindling. Major retailers are closing stores. One iconic retailer has just seen its share price touch fresh lows.

Trump’s “Honeymoon Phase”: Why Low Approval Ratings Matter

Updated: January 27, 2017

Robert Folsom explains that a real honeymoon means a "happy couple" -- and so far, Donald Trump hasn't made his "bride" -- namely, the public -- happy.

A Day of Reckoning for U.S. Commercial Real Estate

Updated: January 25, 2017

Even today, there are repercussions from the real estate lending boom that ended with the subprime mortgage crisis. In 2017, commercial mortgages are maturing, and some landlords face delinquency. Here's what that means for some bondholders.

Analyst Spotlight: Pete Kendall

Updated: January 25, 2017

Pete Kendall, the co-editor of our flagship Financial Forecast, tells you how "it all began" for him at the New York Stock Exchange.

Money Velocity: What the Latest Numbers Tell You

Updated: January 23, 2017

Despite the Fed's stimulus efforts, inflation remains subdued. The trend in money velocity -- the rate at which money changes hands in the economy -- is not what one might expect during a bull market. One bond manager points to high-debt levels.

Deflation: A Sky-High View

Updated: January 20, 2017

Residential real estate prices in major global cities rebounded sharply during the current bull market, especially at the high-end. Now, real estate developers grapple with price deflation. At least one real estate indicator is flashing a bigger warning than it did in 2007.

Why You Should Be Cautious About Credit Ratings

Updated: January 17, 2017

If you count on standard credit rating agencies for timely warnings, you might find yourself "behind the 8-ball." Time and again, downgrades have occurred after the damage has already been done. Now is the time to protect your portfolio.

This is the 1999 "Day-Trading Mania" in New Clothing

Updated: January 6, 2017

Day-trading in the stock market is all about the hope of making a fast buck. Today, the same psychology is at work in another financial arena. Hint: We've been here before.

“No Turning Point in Sight” for Europe’s Deflation

Updated: January 5, 2017

The fear of a European deflation among the Continent's financial authorities has almost melted away. Indeed, the majority of surveyed economists see an inflation jump just ahead. But, there's another way to look at the data.

Markets: Understand the Present to Forecast the Future (Part 2)

Updated: December 27, 2016

In part 2 of our in-depth interview with Steve Hochberg, Steve explains what else makes Elliott wave analysis so useful and practical.

Markets: Understand the Present to Forecast the Future (Part 1)

Updated: December 23, 2016

Steve Hochberg, our Chief Market Analyst, sits down with ElliottWaveTV to talk about his background, how he discovered the Wave Principle, and why "it's applicable to all markets."

Global Sentiment Ahead of US Election

Updated: November 8, 2016

Nine of our top market strategists offer a sneak peek of sentiment in their markets ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

This Chart Reveals a Dangerous Callback to the Last Housing Bust

Updated: November 7, 2016

Almost no one expected a dramatic decline in housing prices in January 2006. At the time, 43% of first-time home buyers were putting no money down. Six months later, housing prices topped. Today, owners of entry-level homes are once again highly leveraged.

U.S. Election: What Does It Mean to the Markets and What Do the Markets Mean to It?

Updated: November 7, 2016

Pete Kendall, the co-editor of our monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, tells you more about the just-published Financial Forecast's special Election section.

The Real Reason Obamacare is Coming Unglued

Updated: October 26, 2016

The days of $20 doctor house calls and affordable hospital stays for the uninsured are long gone. Chalk it up to government involvement in healthcare. Now we learn that "Obamacare" premiums will sharply rise in 2017. Prepare for what's next.

Retirees: Time to Decide What You Can Do Without

Updated: October 21, 2016

Relying on government to financially secure your retirement might be a big mistake. Social Security is a wealth-transfer program that's headed for a major crisis. State and local government pensions are also in trouble. Are you prepared for what the book Conquer the Crash warns about?

A Fascinating Link Between Bull Markets and Invention

Updated: October 17, 2016

Stock market price trends tell you much more than if portfolios are gaining or losing value. They give you a good idea of what to expect in society at large. For example, stocks lead the economy. Stocks lead movie productions. Stocks even lead inventors to invent.

These Big Banks are at Big Risk, and Your Small Bank Could be Next

Updated: September 30, 2016

The world's financial system appears to again be at risk. Big trouble is brewing at big banks. Hedge funds are pulling billions of dollars from a financial giant the IMF calls the world's riskiest bank. Get financially safe now.

Why Nervous Pensioners Are Running for the Exit

Updated: September 28, 2016

Many public pension funds appear on the brink of full-blown crisis. The financial numbers are alarming, even as the stock market trades near a record high. Police and firefighters in one big city are "quitting in droves" because they fear their promised pensions are in jeopardy.

The Fed's Impotence is No Laughing Matter

Updated: September 21, 2016

The September 20-21 FOMC meeting is over, and the word-parsing has begun. But while many see the Fed as the final word on the future of the U.S. economy and stock market, the real impotence of the world’s largest central bank might surprise you. 

Dow Back Near All-Time Highs, Stimulus Junkies Flock

Updated: September 13, 2016

When a topic seems to be driving a lot of media chatter, you can quantify it to see if something more than chatter is at work. Case in point: 'Fiscal Stimulus.' Which, it turns out, is quantifiable indeed...

Why We're Bullish on Japan -- and Abe's Stimulus Package Has Nothing to Do with It

Updated: September 9, 2016

In late July, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a massive, $267 billion stimulus package -- the largest of the prior 23 years, if you don’t count the one during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. While most investors are wondering whether the stimulus this time will be effective, our analysis gives you a completely different perspective on the announcement.

U.S. Food Prices See Longest Stretch of Deflation in 50 Years

Updated: September 8, 2016

We warned about deflation when others scoffed at the idea. Now, deflation has taken a foothold around the globe, and U.S. farmers and grocery store operators are feeling the pain. Food prices have tumbled as a result of deepening deflationary forces. Prepare now for the next phase when no one will doubt this developing trend.

Germany's DAX & the ECB: See Who's REALLY Pulling the Strings

Updated: September 8, 2016

In March 2015, the European Central Bank launched its unprecedented QE program in hopes of jump-starting the eurozone economy and reigniting stock prices. Instead, Europe’s no.1 market, Germany’s DAX index plummeted into a 10-month long bear market. That’s just the tip of this story... 

Public Pension Costs Swell After A Decade of Market Busts

Updated: September 7, 2016

Why are governments paying into public pensions? Why is the rate of increase in government payments so much greater? This chart speaks to the health of public pension funds. In a word, that health issue is "underfunded."

U.S. Stocks Surge DESPITE Earnings Facade

Updated: September 2, 2016

On August 31, Wall Street officially bid adieu to the fiscal Q2 2016. And, according to the experts, “better-than-estimated earnings” lifted U.S. stocks to record highs. The problem is, that’s just one side of the story. The other side you don’t want to miss.

Why Hardly Anyone Talks About the Cost of Living Anymore

Updated: August 24, 2016

The next big monetary event is approaching fast. No, it's not inflation. The evidence is mounting that deflation already has a foothold and is gaining ground. These two charts reveal a disturbing trend for anyone who's unprepared.

Investors are Ignoring Warning Signs of Deflation

Updated: August 24, 2016

European Markets Expert Brian Whitmer sits down with ElliottWaveTV and stresses that investors are in a risk-on mindset, something we’ve seen “time and time again.”

The Olympic-Size Problem of Network Television

Updated: August 22, 2016

Network television viewership is dropping, and so is interest in the Olympics. What does this have to do with bull and bear markets? Plenty.

Does This Chart Say Real Estate "Boom"?

Updated: August 16, 2016

Recent headlines say the housing market is "booming." There's no support for that claim in the trend of homeownership. (1:48)

U.S. Student Loans: A Coming Disaster for Taxpayers

Updated: August 4, 2016

The federal government is good at lending taxpayer money to borrowers who are unable or unwilling to pay it back. It happened during the housing bust, and now, some seven million people are in default on their student loans. Find out why we anticipate that the number will rise dramatically.

Pete Kendall: U.S. Economy is Struggling -- But Not Why You Think

Updated: August 4, 2016

Pete Kendall tells you that although stocks recently hit new all-time highs, there is a great slackening in the economy -- but not for the reasons you commonly hear about in the news. To watch the interview or read the transcript, click on the link below.

The U.S. Economy Falters: What History Says About the Months Ahead

Updated: August 1, 2016

The U.S. economy grew at a snail's pace in Q2. The preliminary GDP annual growth rate of 1.2% took polled economists by surprise. They expected an increase more than twice that high. Find out how we anticipate economic trend changes.

The 3 Dirtiest Words in the Restaurant Industry: "Honey, Dinner's Ready"

Updated: July 29, 2016

Eating out is a bull market phenomenon. When people are in an upbeat mood, they tend to splurge at restaurants on food and drinks. But a shift appears underway. One analyst sees similarities to the first half of 2007, just before a major financial downturn.

GDP Does Not Drive the Stock Market Trend

Updated: July 29, 2016

"The economy leads, and the stock market follows." This common assumption is easy to check -- all you have to do is look at the data.

U.S. Public Pensions: Funding Gap Widens Dramatically

Updated: July 27, 2016

U.S. public pension fund returns have been hurt by a long stretch of low interest rates. Today, the funding gap stands at an astounding $3.4 trillion. Our research and others' suggests the bankruptcies of Detroit and San Bernardino may be only previews of what's to come for at least five other major cities on the brink of insolvency.

Building Permits: The Ice Age Returneth

Updated: July 26, 2016

Building permits help answer the question, "What's next for builders, developers, the construction business and real estate in the U.S.?" You can see for yourself that building permits can be an excellent early indicator for real estate.

Evidence: "The American Economy Has Slowed to a Crawl"

Updated: July 21, 2016

This measure shows you the growth in Real Per Capita GDP -- it adjusts for population, and it adjusts for inflation. It's all built into one trend line. That's a far more revealing picture of the economy. And, it's especially telling regarding the future -- specifically, the future of incomes...

Germany's DAX Index: Will Prices Stay Below a Key Trendline?

Updated: June 22, 2016

Germany served as an anchor of stability during Europe's sovereign debt crisis. The nation is the Continent's largest economy. Even so, Germany's stock market now looks poised for increased volatility. Also, take a look at this downtrending stock chart of the country's largest steel maker.  

Behind the Happy-Face Mask of the U.S. Jobless Rate

Updated: June 17, 2016

The Federal Reserve is troubled by the jobs market, and for good reason. The central bank's own Labor Market Conditions Index is at its lowest level in seven years. Also, a record 95 million Americans are not in the labor force. Now is the time to prepare for what we see ahead.

The Jobs Jolt That Reverberates on Both Main and Wall Streets

Updated: June 7, 2016

"Bad, bad, bad" is how a global forecaster describes the May U.S. jobs report, the single worst for jobs growth in almost six years. Also, for the first time since the financial crisis, Wall Street pay has turned lower across almost all lines of business. Here's our forecast for Wall Street employment.

Another Credit Bubble: Car Loans Top $1 Trillion for First Time

Updated: June 3, 2016

The delinquency rate among subprime auto loans is rising, even as total auto loan liabilities exceed $1 trillion. The CEO of the nation's largest bank raises a red flag. The Wall Street Journal calls it a "subprime flashback." Prepare now for what we see ahead.

U.S. Vs. China: Has the Trade War Only Begun?

Updated: May 31, 2016

The U.S. has just imposed a new tariff on steel imports from China. Trade wars between nations are the result of a defensive psychology. Prepare now for a trend toward protectionism.

Boomerang Babies: Why Millennials Ask, "What Economic Recovery?"

Updated: May 27, 2016

Millennials financially struggle long after the Great Recession officially ended. More than half of those who move out "boomerang" back to Mom and Dad. How much do millennials earn? Take a look at this graphic.

4 Shocking Truths About Earnings Season

Updated: May 26, 2016

How much faith to you put in a company's earnings data to gauge its future growth potential? Well, we have four shocking truths about the real value of earnings that will radically change the way you see this time-honored measure.

"Phase Transition": Water, Markets, Politics and More

Updated: May 12, 2016

In this new interview with Pete Kendall, the editor of our Financial Forecast, he explains why he thinks we're at a turning point, or "phase transition" in politics, along with a turning point in real estate -- and what this means for the financial markets.

Deflation Means Massive Job Layoffs – Are You Ready?

Updated: May 9, 2016

The April U.S. jobs report reveals that fewer people are participating in the labor force. The oil industry has been hit particularly hard and shows what can happen to an entire economy when deflation dominates. See a chart of another sector that has seen a multi-year job decline.

Puerto Rico: One Piece of a Giant Debt-Fueled House of Cards

Updated: May 4, 2016

Brian Whitmer, one of our emerging markets experts, talks about the Puerto Rican debt crisis and explains why the country's recent default "was not a surprise" to him and others at EWI.

Puerto Rico: One Piece of a Giant Debt-Fueled House of Cards

Updated: May 4, 2016

Brian Whitmer, one of our emerging markets experts, talks about the Puerto Rican debt crisis and explains why the country's recent default "was not a surprise" to him and others at EWI.

What to Make of the Stubbornly Sluggish U.S. Economy

Updated: May 2, 2016

Have you ever wondered why the U.S. economy remains weak even after unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus? The reason boils down to just two words: deflationary psychology. Now is the time to prepare for what we see ahead.

Pensions Axed: Are Your Retirement Funds Next?

Updated: April 25, 2016

A big percentage of pension benefits go poof! Workers protest to no avail. The government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation is broke. Take the steps to secure your retirement now.

Japan: Down the Rabbit Hole of Negative Rates

Updated: April 20, 2016

The results are in: Two- plus months of negative interest rates has had no positive impact on Japan's economy. "It's like being Alice in Wonderland," observes one strategist. But, in our opinion, there's nothing "curiouser" about the futility of free money to revive Japan's credit markets.

Woe-Mart: The Retail Giant Walmart Has Faltered

Updated: April 13, 2016

Over the last year, Walmart has gone from retail victor to re-FAIL victim of falling sales growth, store closures, layoffs, and on. Who's to blame for Walmart's reversal of fortune? Hint: It's not the strong dollar. It's deflation. 

U.S. Economy Falters, Steady Deflationary Slide Underway

Updated: April 11, 2016

The Great Recession "officially" ended nearly seven years ago, yet the U.S. economy still struggles to find its footing. Evidence reveals a steady deflationary slide is already underway, yet few investors are aware, much fewer prepared. "Make no mistake about it. It's a global story."

U.S. Housing Market: Should You Rent or Buy?

Updated: April 4, 2016

Housing market analysts expect prices to climb again in 2016. But one EWI subscriber expresses caution. Learn what he just told The New York Times.

U.S. Jobs Market: A Picture of [Ailing] Health

Updated: April 1, 2016

The April 1 U.S. Department of Labor report showed a 5% unemployment rate. The mainstream experts hailed this as a sign of "robust" growth. We, on the other hand, call April Fool's! 

Wall Street is Coo-Coo for CoCo Bonds

Updated: March 29, 2016

Learn why these new bonds are such risky instruments.

Is the Fed Lost in a Keynesian Puzzle Palace?

Updated: March 17, 2016

Does the Fed's interest rate policy determine the direction of stocks and the economy? Many Fed watchers believe so. Perhaps they have not seen these two charts.

How Deflation is Winning in 2016

Updated: March 4, 2016

It's been over 80 years since the world plunged into a devastating deflation. Now, an entire lifetime later, the evidence for this rare event is appearing again. Look at these two charts.

The 2007-9 Housing Bust -- or Boon? That Depends

Updated: February 26, 2016

The Oscar-nominated movie "The Big Short" is a gripping story of a group of no-name outsiders who warned of the 2007-9 housing/subprime mortgage collapse. We at Elliott Wave International know that story all too well...

The Latest Shot Fired in the War on Cash

Updated: February 24, 2016

Some financial authorities want to take away your cash. Now is the time to find a safe place to store your greenbacks. See a chart that shows how "deflation is winning."

Housing: At the Edge of Another Huge Cliff?

Updated: February 18, 2016

Real estate agents say that today's near-record low mortgage rates means it's a good time to buy a house. But is it? See a chart that debunks a common belief about housing prices, and learn about warning signs that are reminders of the 2006 housing bubble.

Can the Fed Drop Interest Rates Below 0%?

Updated: February 9, 2016

For the financial markets, the biggest event of the week starts tomorrow: On Wednesday and Thursday (Feb. 10-11) Fed chair Janet Yellen will appear before Congress to deliver her semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.

The Nine Most Terrifying Words in U.S. Healthcare

Updated: February 1, 2016

In 2003, we warned about the trend toward socialized healthcare and taxes. Now, the fines for the uninsured have increased in 2016. Now is the time to prepare for what's next.

Alibaba Stock: BABA Boom to Bust

Updated: January 21, 2016

Alibaba's stock market debut -- BABA -- was supposed to be the can't-lose, golden IPO of 2015. But then, the stock plunged 30% and stands near its initial offer price. While it's easy to blame China's contracting economy for the BABA bust, that wouldn't be true.

The Rich are Acting Like They Did Right Before the Last Financial Crisis

Updated: January 14, 2016

Financial optimism was on full display in 1999 and 2006. The rich were splurging as the stock market zoomed higher. Bear markets soon followed. Now, as we kick off 2016, the affluent are partying like it's 1999 and 2006. 

"Made in America": A Relic of the Past?

Updated: January 7, 2016

An important sector of the U.S. economy has contracted for the second month in a row. Deflation is a rare condition that's occurred only twice in U.S. history. Has the third episode already started?

The "Oil-Price-Tax-Cut" that Never Was

Updated: January 4, 2016

In 2015, the mainstream experts said falling oil prices would help jump-start the economy. It goes without saying, this forecast did not come to pass as planned. The full story might surprise you.

Junk Bond Bust: The "Fling" Is Over

Updated: December 29, 2015

Over the last year, investors' appetite for risk has gone from red hot to lukewarm, culminating in the recent junk bond bust. Get the real story of the reversal here...

Junk Bond Selloff: The Stress Gets MORE Stressful

Updated: December 17, 2015

chart of the day | Here we have the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Spread. It's one of those indicators you don't see enough of in the financial media, even though it's a lot more predictive and relevant to investors, versus all of this week's hoopla about the Federal Reserve.

Conservatism Grips the U.S. Economy Like Squirrels Hoarding Nuts for Winter

Updated: December 11, 2015

The transition from risk-taking to risk-aversion started off gradually in 2007. Then it suddenly accelerated. Our analysts see evidence that a similar pattern is repeating itself. Look at these two charts.

How Women Pursue "Fantasy and Escape" During Economic Downturns

Updated: December 7, 2015

A study shows that changes in women's shoes reflect changes in the economy. The women in the hit television show "Sex in the City" often wore stiletto heels, but in 2015 heels are flat or chunky. Learn more about this and other unusual economic indicators.

Why Your Bank Deposits May Be at Risk

Updated: December 3, 2015

Big banks remain more fragile than most people realize. Many financial institutions never really recovered from the 2007-2009 financial crisis. A new report opens your eyes to the secret new government tax.

Prechter: 'Financial Markets are a Psychological Phenomenon'

Updated: November 24, 2015

Robert Prechter talks about his developing theory on finance with Douglass Lodmell for The Mind Of Money series.

Why Not to "Bank" on It

Updated: November 24, 2015

chart of the day | See a chart of two indexes, which represent two strongly-related sectors in the financial industry -- namely, banking and hedge funds. At a glance, the patterns look similar. But there is more to this story.

Paging Dr Copper

Updated: November 23, 2015

Copper's uses are so widespread that earned a nickname for "diagnosing" the economy -- as in, "Dr. Copper." Well, Dr. Copper's prices have not been doing that great. On Nov. 23, MarketWatch reported that, "Copper futures slumped to six-year lows..."

Deflation: Welcome to "Discount City"

Updated: November 16, 2015

The stock of an economic bellwether has been taking it on the chin. This, along with other signs, could portend an extended period of deflation. Take a look at these two charts.

Knocking on Deflation's Door: Global CPI "Flatlines"

Updated: November 10, 2015

chart of the day | This chart shows you the annual percentage change in the consumer price index -- or CPI -- of the world's 37 advanced economies. CPI tracks prices that households pay for a basket of goods and services. And here's what's relevant about this chart...

Does the Fed Know What to Do?

Updated: October 30, 2015

Investors and presidential hopefuls alike have been criticizing the Federal Reserve. The central bank appears uncertain about its monetary policy. Will the Fed even be around in 10 years?

The Economy Follows the Stock Market

Updated: October 29, 2015

The evidence is clear. The stock market leads the economy contrary to popular belief. Episode 2 of the Elliott Wave Pillars series walks you through the overwhelming evidence that proves this point without a doubt.

Europe in Deflation: Got (cheap) Milk?

Updated: October 27, 2015

In the early 1990s, two simple words transformed the way the U.S. consumer saw it: "Got Milk?" Suddenly, the narrative changed from an obligatory drink you had to finish as a kid -- into a sexy, funny, and above all desirable treat for all ages. Until now...

Dispatch: U.S. On the Precipice of Deflation

Updated: October 26, 2015

Deflation is already a reality in many quarters of the global economy. Mounting evidence suggests that the full fury of this trend is about to be unleashed. Give our just-released dispatch on deflation your immediate attention.

Deflation Threat for World's Three Biggest Economies

Updated: October 14, 2015

What is more likely: an asteroid hitting the earth or deflation? A famous hedge fund manager gives his opinion. You can review the evidence for yourself.

U.S. Real Estate: Boom and Bust

Updated: October 7, 2015

Homeowners were using their homes as ATMs around the time of the 2006 peak in housing prices. Today, many people are again borrowing against their homes. Learn why the housing market is prone to "boom and bust."

A Rock and a Hard Place: The Fed Gets Wedged

Updated: October 6, 2015

Almost everyone wants to know if and when the Fed will hike the fed funds rate. But the central bank faces an acute dilemma...

The Rise of Women in Bear Markets

Updated: September 28, 2015

Many view bear markets as simply a downturn in stock prices. But societal changes also tend to accompany trend changes in the stock market. Will the "gender barrier" be shattered in the months ahead?

Anticipating a Rise in the Dollar Index

Updated: September 23, 2015

Many U.S. dollar bears have expected inflation to trigger a collapse in the greenback. But inflation has been missing in action. Only one asset is sure to gain value during deflation.

Yellen: "We Expect Inflation to Move Back to 2%." (Don't Hold Your Breath.)

Updated: September 18, 2015

The Fed's 2% inflation target remains elusive even after a prolonged period of near-zero interest rates. We see evidence of a rare economic trend that the Fed will be powerless against. See two charts that help to explain.

Investors Bet on Housing Again (Just in Time for Another Implosion?)

Updated: September 11, 2015

U.S. housing prices remain far below their 2005 highs. Even so, we see signs that investors have re-kindled the old real estate mania. Their timing may prove financially disastrous.

"Below Target"? -- Who Said You Can Set a "Target"?

Updated: September 10, 2015

What you're looking at is a chart of... failure. This humble graph shows you changes in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, or PCE. It's like the consumer price index, but PCE better reflects what consumers actually consume.

The Fed: "Utterly Irrelevant"?

Updated: September 9, 2015

Many investors believe that the Federal Reserve holds sway over markets and the economy. But a former chairman of the U.S. central bank says monetary policy cannot solve everything. See a chart that shows what central bankers are up against.

Quantitative Easing - All for Nothing? (Confessions of a Fed Insider)

Updated: August 31, 2015

The only thing the Fed has to show for its purchase of $1.5 trillion worth of Treasuries (QE) is a high-priced stock market. Now even that may be crumbling. The credibility of the central bank is on the line.

China's Yuan Devaluation: Why It Was "Expected"

Updated: August 27, 2015

China's economy is slowing. Its stock market began to crash back in July. And, the volatility rocking financial markets has been widely linked to the recent yuan devaluations by China's central bank. Speaking of that...

This Investment "Vehicle" Shows Five Waves Up

Updated: August 24, 2015

This credit-fueled financial vehicle traveled northward at breakneck speed. Two charts suggest that the return trip southward has only started.

Here's What a Time-Tested Economic Indicator is Telling Us Now

Updated: August 14, 2015

This economic indicator has stood the test of time -- and it's sending an ominous message. A 3 1/2-year shelf of support has recently been broken. See two charts that tell you what you need to know now.

The Fed's Favorite Measuring Stick

Updated: August 13, 2015

U.S. retail sales rose in July, but to get the full picture, you need to see the two charts EWI's Chief Market Analyst recently shared with a packed house at the San Francisco MoneyShow.

U.S. GDP Gets Revised Higher: Time to Buy Stocks?

Updated: August 3, 2015

The U.S. GDP growth has just been revised upward. That, many experts say, sets the stage for a stock market rally -- because the economy leads and the stock market follows. Right? At least, that’s what almost everyone believes. But even a brief glance at recent history proves otherwise. 

The Mighty Steep Price of Runaway Government Spending

Updated: July 31, 2015

Prolonged profligate spending has landed Greece, Puerto Rico and many U.S. municipalities in financial hot water. The water is about to boil over and almost everyone will be scalded. Learn what Alan Greenspan just called "extremely dangerous."

Market Bubble in Trouble? Rinse & Repeat

Updated: July 16, 2015

Introducing the newest crop of "oddball loans" -- bonds backed by dirty laundry. Here's why these "esoteric" assets are just one sign that stock market bulls may soon get hung out to dry.

Why Another Financial Crisis is Likely (So Warns the Fed)

Updated: June 19, 2015

Federal government liabilities have reached a post-financial crisis high. And the Federal Reserve explains why another financial crisis is likely.

U.S. Debt Dilemma: "Worsened Dramatically"

Updated: June 17, 2015

Never before has the world piled up so much debt. A day of reckoning is at hand. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office just said that "the long-term outlook for the federal budget has worsened dramatically."

Why the U.S. Economy Is on Shaky Ground

Updated: June 5, 2015

One economic indicator just marked its eighth straight week of declines. Another just turned in its worst five-year run since the early 1980s. Yet, there's even more evidence that the economy is on very shaky ground.

The Fed's Gift of Free Money: Return to Sender

Updated: June 4, 2015

On June 2, the Wall Street Journal asked why the American consumer has become so "stingy." Today, we have the answer, and it might surprise you.

Will the U.S. See a "Sudden Economic Deceleration"?

Updated: June 2, 2015

A year ago, economists were predicting a sustained 3% growth rate for the U.S. economy. Yet the government just said that the economy contracted at a 0.7% annualized rate in Q1.  See a chart that shows a "relentless decline" in a key economic measure.

Bubbles Schmubbles: Just Keep Dancing

Updated: June 2, 2015

Even if there are bubbles, "no one knows when these things will end," writes a May 31 CNN Money article. Now where and when have we heard this before?!

FAQ: The Dow priced in gold: Why is this important?

Updated: March 29, 2015

Our Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg addressed why it the Dow priced in gold is important in this 3-minute clip.

FAQ: Is deflation still a threat? Can't the Fed stop deflation just by expanding credit?

Updated: March 28, 2015

Answer: Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit. ...

FAQ: Can the FDIC protect my money?

Updated: March 28, 2015

Answer: The U.S. government's Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation guarantee just makes things far worse, for two reasons. ...

Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Conclusion)

Updated: November 26, 2014

Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, peace, terrorism, inflation, monetary policy -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market. Here's the conclusion of our 10-part series.

"Don't Fight the Fed?" Don't Make Me Laugh!

Updated: November 11, 2014

The Fed runs the market. Right? Well, "see if you can tell on this chart where authorities intervened."

Does Inflation Really Make Gold and Silver Go Up?

Updated: October 28, 2014

This idea of gold as inflation hedge is practically gospel. This chart shows a major flaw in this theory.

Would a Terrorist Attack Crash the Stock Market?

Updated: October 22, 2014

As bad news goes, terrorism is at the top of the list. Why then do stocks ignore these terrible events so often?

Peace Is Always Bullish for Stocks: Yes or No?

Updated: October 16, 2014

"Peace lets companies innovate and compete, helping the economy." True -- and yet, stocks will go where they go.

Are Wars Bullish or Bearish for Stocks?

Updated: October 6, 2014

"Some economists say wars stimulate the economy; others say war hurts it."  These 4 charts negate both cases.

Learn Why GDP Is a Poor Predictor of Stock Trends

Updated: September 12, 2014

"GDP reflects corporate success. So do stock prices. So how could GDP not impact stocks?" -- Solid logic, and yet...

Learn Why Rising Trade Deficit Is NOT a Bearish Factor for Stocks

Updated: September 10, 2014

"U.S. trade deficit seems to be a reasonable thing to worry about." This chart shows you why it's really not.

"Rising Oil Prices Are Bearish for Stocks": True or False?

Updated: September 9, 2014

"Rising oil prices reduce corporate and consumer spending, impacting stocks and the economy." Right? Wrong.

Improving Economy is Bullish for Stocks. Right?

Updated: February 3, 2014

Positive economic reports are said to be bullish for the stock market, while negative data are bearish. But is this accurate? What a strange question, you may say -- but please take a look at this chart...

Asia-Pacific, Money Velocity and Real Estate


We start with a new interview with Elliott Wave International's Asian-Pacific Markets Expert. Next week take a look at money velocity and explain how you can learn a lot from watching "how fast money changes hands." Lastly, we explain why higher delinquencies should soon be a reality.

Debt Crisis 2.0, Forecasts for the U.S. Dollar & More


As the amount of household debt rises, so does the risk of another financial crisis. Learn why the next debt implosion could be bigger than the one 10 years ago. Next up, our Currency Pro Service editor gives you his outlook for the dollar. Our last feature lays out evidence that shows economic news impacts the stock market less than you may think.

New Insights on Precious Metals & U.S. Housing


Learn why the recent price action in gold suggests to him that gold prices may be entering a risky period soon. Plus, one high-yield debt instrument that was at the forefront of the 2007-2009 financial crisis has reached a new, dangerous milestone and we're sounding the alarm. Lastly, at least one measure of optimism has returned to the height of the bubble days. Some say not to worry because "the economy is in far better shape than a decade ago." Is today really different?

Cyber Attack, Barbie, and Legal Cannabis: Unrandomly Chosen


If you were to randomly pick three stories from the "recent news" hat, you might come up with 1) Marijuana, 2) Barbie, 3) Cyber attacks. They sure seem like random topics, right? Well, these stories are our picks this week, but they were not chosen randomly -- each one includes a strong and observable element of collective human activity. And that means mood. Let's get started.

Global Sentiment and the US Election


Our first segment gives you a sneak peek of what analysts at Elliott Wave International have been watching in U.S. and global stocks, forex, metals, interest rates, energy and social mood. Next we take a look at legalization of recreational marijuana and answer the important question, why now? Lastly, we take a deeper look at Obamacare and reveal the real reason it's coming unglued.

More Than 'Right Below the Surface' Mood Gets to the Bottom of the Stories


After you peel back the spectacle, a lot of news these days is hard to read. Threats and hard-to-calculate risks dwell right below the surface. Yet an understanding of social mood allows you to go deeper than 'right below the surface' -- you can actually get to the bottom of the story. And not just one story… but the trend itself, which drives so many otherwise unrelated events.

How to Make National News by Doing Nothing


More than 80 percent of economists predicted it would happen. The Fed would raise interest rates. It would be the 'All Clear' signal for the economy. But... it didn't happen. The entire economics profession was caught off guard. Listen to the 'follow up story' you won't get anyplace else.

Presidents. Policy. Parties in Power. And, the Freakin' Muppets Grew Up?


This week we tackle the big stuff -- President meets President. Fed Policy. Which Party is in Power. And then there's the re-incarnated Muppets...

Red-Eyed Operating Systems, Nuclear Complacency and Economic Fallacies


The stories this week span a wide range -- from the relationship between the economy and the stock market to "espionage software" in North Korea to waning complacency regarding the threat of nuclear weapons. Plus, this week's episode revisits a scandal that's still making headlines.

The Who and Why of Getting PAID to Borrow Money


How do you define "Deflation"? Hint: It begins with psychology, NOT with falling prices. Deflation turns the economy and financial world upside down, to the point that borrowers get PAID by lenders. Get the 9-minute story in this episode of Pop Trends, Price Culture.

Volatility in Commodities


First you'll hear from our Chief Commodity analyst, Jeffrey Kennedy. Learn what he thinks of extreme volatility in commodities, he also offers his big picture perspective -- and reveals when he expects the next major low. Our Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg recently spoke to a packed house at a San Francisco investment show -- this next clip is an excerpt from that presentation. Steve goes through copper's price action and explains how it can actually be used as a market indicator to foreshadow a weakening economy. In today's last feature, EWI correspondent Bob Stokes also reports commodity prices. As Bob explains, one index recently fell to an 11-year low and commodity price declines have recently accelerated. This downtrend points to a rare economic trend -- deflation.

Scary Scenes Ahead


All three of today's features come to us from EWI correspondent Bob Stokes. First you'll hear about " financial zombies", then we'll switch over to the Fed and last you'll hear about how the U.S. is on the precipice of deflation. Halloween has past, but the financial walking dead are still among us. In this first feature, correspondent Bob Stokes takes look at a financial services firm that has seen its share price drop, despite aggressive stock buybacks. Investors and presidential hopefuls alike have been criticizing the Federal Reserve. The central bank appears uncertain about its monetary policy. Correspondent Bob Stokes poses an interesting question: Will the Fed even be around in 10 years? Deflation is already a reality in many quarters of the global economy. And mounting evidence suggests that the full fury of this trend is about to be unleashed.

The Fed - Technical Analysis - Japan


Many investors believe that the Federal Reserve holds sway over markets and the economy. But a former chairman of the U.S. central bank says monetary policy cannot solve everything. Has the Fed become Utterly Irrelevant? Correspondent Bob Stokes explains what central bankers are up against.Should investors base market decisions on fundamental or technical analysis? A new study sheds light on this important question. Learn how the Elliott wave model helped prepare our subscribers for the recently ramped up market volatility. Japan's economic glory days in the 1980s now looks like ancient history. Indeed, some analysts say the outlook is so grim that a worst-case scenario is inevitable. Our last report is also from correspondent Bob Stokes who assesses the possibility of a default for Japan.

Buying the Dip and Momentum Warnings


This week marked another exciting one on Wall Street. A well-known financial publication suggests that now is the time to invest for the long term. Such an approach might be hazardous to your portfolio. Learn if the latest stock market decline is actually a buying opportunity. Market tops have always formed slowly, not a blowoff as many investors believe. Bob Stokes explained why this is important for today's market and your wallet. An important sector of the U.S. economy has contracted for the second month in a row. Deflation is a rare condition that's occurred only twice in U.S. history - learn if the third episode has already began.

Bank Deposits, Financial Markets and Economic Indicators


This week's episode starts off with a look at another financial crisis that will bring widespread bank failures. Big banks remain more fragile than most people realize. Many financial institutions never really recovered from the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Elliott Wave International correspondent Bob stokes reports on a new report that will open your eyes to the secret new government tax. This next feature is a clip from an interview Robert Prechter recorded Douglass Lodmell for The Mind Of Money series. Take a listen as Bob talks about his developing theory on finance and explains how financial markets are a psychological phenomenon. Today's last report from correspondent Bob Stokes looks at a study that found that changes in women's shoes reflect changes in the economy. You may remember that the women in the hit television show "Sex in the City" often wore stiletto heels, but in 2015 heels are flat or chunky. Learn more about this and other unusual economic indicators.
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