Updated: October 31, 2017Remember the so-called "Goldilocks" economy around the turn of the last century? How about in 2007? Well, positive economic numbers didn't stop the stock market from topping in both years. Today, optimism about the economy has reached another extreme. See these two charts.
Updated: October 24, 2017President Trump is expected to soon announce his choice for the next Fed chair. Whoever is selected may turn out to be one of the unluckiest people in the world of finance. Find out why.
Updated: October 18, 2017Spending is fun! Easy credit is a blast! But debt is a downer. And, right now, numerous measures of debt are near all-time highs. Here's what EWI analysts are closely watching.
Updated: October 16, 2017In order to be aware of the investment pitfalls and opportunities that deflation can bring, we must first understand the basic elements of why it occurs...
Updated: September 29, 2017Many U.S. municipalities face a large and looming financial crisis. With the stock market's string of record highs getting most of the headlines, this next likely crisis will seem to arrive out of nowhere. Remember how the 2007-2009 financial crisis caught most everyone flat-footed? Find out what EWI analysts expect.
Updated: September 7, 2017Troublesome developments are occurring in the U.S. housing market. Media outlets are saying that "an acute shortage of properties" is hurting sales. But, the real story is revealed in these chart patterns.
Updated: August 30, 2017The latest figures for consumer credit in the US showed a lower-than-expected increase of $12.4 billion in June.
Updated: August 18, 2017Is the proverbial "rainy day" upon us? If so, two developments indicate that many people are financially unprepared. Also, find out why our September Elliott Wave Theorist just published an entire month early.
Updated: August 16, 2017Would you like to know what the health of the economy will be like months ahead of time? This rarely discussed "economic indicator" has a history of serving as a useful guide. See for yourself.
Updated: August 9, 2017The trip up the side of Debt Mountain is getting more treacherous. A new milestone has been reached. Learn the lesson that financial history teaches.
Updated: July 13, 2017We anticipate that many more borrowers will welch on their obligations as debt starts to deflate.
Updated: July 10, 2017Some U.S. real estate markets have bounced back strongly since the Great Recession while others have languished. All told, "the recovery is spotty at best." Now, two new developments are adding risk to the mortgage market.
Updated: July 7, 2017In 1939, Sir Winston Churchill said that Russia was "... a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." The same could be said of China today.
Updated: June 30, 2017Food prices in the USA are under pressure at the moment – but should we see this as a general trend towards deflation?
Updated: June 23, 2017The housing market is heating up -- again. Signs are appearing that are reminders of the previous housing boom. "Buyers are convinced values will only continue to climb ... ." Is the housing trend near a reversal?
Updated: June 21, 2017As the amount of household debt rises, so does the risk of another financial crisis. A new milestone has been reached in the U.S. But a chart shows that the dangers of debt are global.
Updated: June 5, 2017The U.S. housing market has staged a significant rebound since prices bottomed in February 2012. Now, at least one measure of optimism has returned to the height of the bubble days. Some say not to worry because "the economy is in far better shape than a decade ago." Is today really different?
Updated: June 2, 2017Critics say President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement dealt a setback to the global-warming cause. But, the evidence suggests that "global-warming fever" had already been cooling off. "Crowds often think their personal cause of the moment is a permanent issue. It almost never is."
Updated: May 30, 2017In 2016, the prevailing sentiment toward China's economy was negative. Yet, if investors had avoided China's internet sector, they would have missed a significant advance. The whole episode teaches a valuable lesson.
Updated: May 19, 2017News about today's economy only talks about "growth." The true story this chart tells isn't reported nearly as often.
Updated: May 4, 2017Toronto is the 4th largest city in North America and anchors a greater metropolitan region of nine million -- more than a quarter of Canada's entire population. A city this size is an ideal candidate to preview real estate trends in Canada and in the United States...
Updated: May 4, 2017Cash-strapped Puerto Rico is unable to meet its debt obligations as a key deadline passes. Investors in the Commonwealth's General Obligation Bonds have taken a big haircut. Other municipalities are next in line.
Updated: April 28, 2017Cash is the one asset that is almost sure to rise in value during a deflationary period. Yet, the "war on cash" has been escalating. Here's why you should start storing away plenty of cash.
Updated: April 28, 2017This humble chart shows REAL average weekly wages -- and why a bigger paycheck does NOT necessarily mean more purchasing power. See why purchasing power has been flat for a decade.
Updated: April 24, 2017Delinquencies have been increasing for subprime car loans. Yet, car dealers are unfazed and have been allowing buyers to "trade in underwater vehicles two or three times." The credit boom is reaching an extreme.
Updated: April 17, 2017According to the mainstream pundits, the long-awaited "Easter-egg hunt" of recovery in Europe's economy and stock markets is over! Optimism is off the charts. But it's what's ON our charts that warns caution.
Updated: April 7, 2017The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.
Updated: March 13, 2017In February, the U.S. jobless rate fell to 4.7% as the economy added 235,000 non-farm payrolls. Some people attribute the economic improvement to the new president. Here's why the added jobs were anticipated well before the U.S. election.
Updated: March 7, 2017Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash states: "The psychological aspect of deflation ... cannot be overstated." The manifestations of this psychology are already appearing. Learn where -- and how.
Updated: February 23, 2017U.S. debt is on the rise and could reach a milestone level sometime in 2017. Student debt has risen for 18 consecutive years, and subprime loans are a growing worry in another sector. See these charts to understand the threat.
Updated: February 21, 2017In 2016, the UK enjoyed its biggest credit boom ever, as consumers piled on debt hand over fist. Question: Is this really a sign of an economy running on all cylinders? Read our perspective today.
Updated: February 14, 2017Many recent survey respondents see clear skies ahead for the U.S. economy. But there's an important historic insight that investors need to know about today's economic optimism.
Updated: February 14, 2017We've all read about, heard about and watched the many negative political headlines from across the planet. If you're an investor, you have to wonder: What does it all mean for world trade and global markets? That question is too broad to answer with one graph or visual, but: We do have a chart to start the conversation.
Updated: February 13, 2017Greece's debt drama has returned to center stage. But global financiers are balking at another bailout. Meanwhile, Europe's banking system remains fragile. There's only one way "Europe's seemingly endless series of financial crises will end."
Updated: February 9, 2017What else is built into this TRILLION dollars of auto debt? Well, with a bubble there's always more. Click 'play' to see what we see...
Updated: February 8, 2017In 2016, the U.S. inflation rate rose from 1.4% in January to 2.1% in December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. So, how did classic inflation hedges perform? Let's take a look at two.
Updated: February 8, 2017The Eurozone, led by Germany and France, is approaching inflation targets with overall inflation for Eurozone countries coming in near 1.8%, just a little below ECB's official 2% target. But looking below the surface, all may not be quite as it seems. Brian Whitmer, the editor of the European Financial Forecast, offers his take.
Updated: February 7, 2017News flash: The 2016 U.S. trade deficit was the largest since 2012, fueling President Trump’s fire to narrow the nation’s gap and bolster the economy. But this research shows historical evidence that suggests this approach could seriously backfire.
Updated: February 1, 2017U.S. shopping malls have seen better days. Now, foot traffic is dwindling. Major retailers are closing stores. One iconic retailer has just seen its share price touch fresh lows.
Updated: January 27, 2017Robert Folsom explains that a real honeymoon means a "happy couple" -- and so far, Donald Trump hasn't made his "bride" -- namely, the public -- happy.
Updated: January 25, 2017Even today, there are repercussions from the real estate lending boom that ended with the subprime mortgage crisis. In 2017, commercial mortgages are maturing, and some landlords face delinquency. Here's what that means for some bondholders.
Updated: January 25, 2017Pete Kendall, the co-editor of our flagship Financial Forecast, tells you how "it all began" for him at the New York Stock Exchange.
Updated: January 23, 2017Despite the Fed's stimulus efforts, inflation remains subdued. The trend in money velocity -- the rate at which money changes hands in the economy -- is not what one might expect during a bull market. One bond manager points to high-debt levels.
Updated: January 20, 2017Residential real estate prices in major global cities rebounded sharply during the current bull market, especially at the high-end. Now, real estate developers grapple with price deflation. At least one real estate indicator is flashing a bigger warning than it did in 2007.
Updated: January 17, 2017If you count on standard credit rating agencies for timely warnings, you might find yourself "behind the 8-ball." Time and again, downgrades have occurred after the damage has already been done. Now is the time to protect your portfolio.
Updated: January 6, 2017Day-trading in the stock market is all about the hope of making a fast buck. Today, the same psychology is at work in another financial arena. Hint: We've been here before.
Updated: January 5, 2017The fear of a European deflation among the Continent's financial authorities has almost melted away. Indeed, the majority of surveyed economists see an inflation jump just ahead. But, there's another way to look at the data.
Updated: December 27, 2016In part 2 of our in-depth interview with Steve Hochberg, Steve explains what else makes Elliott wave analysis so useful and practical.
Updated: December 23, 2016Steve Hochberg, our Chief Market Analyst, sits down with ElliottWaveTV to talk about his background, how he discovered the Wave Principle, and why "it's applicable to all markets."
Updated: November 8, 2016Nine of our top market strategists offer a sneak peek of sentiment in their markets ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Updated: November 7, 2016Almost no one expected a dramatic decline in housing prices in January 2006. At the time, 43% of first-time home buyers were putting no money down. Six months later, housing prices topped. Today, owners of entry-level homes are once again highly leveraged.
Updated: November 7, 2016Pete Kendall, the co-editor of our monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, tells you more about the just-published Financial Forecast's special Election section.
Updated: August 24, 2016European Markets Expert Brian Whitmer sits down with ElliottWaveTV and stresses that investors are in a risk-on mindset, something we’ve seen “time and time again.”
Updated: July 29, 2016"The economy leads, and the stock market follows." This common assumption is easy to check -- all you have to do is look at the data.
Updated: May 9, 2016The April U.S. jobs report reveals that fewer people are participating in the labor force. The oil industry has been hit particularly hard and shows what can happen to an entire economy when deflation dominates. See a chart of another sector that has seen a multi-year job decline.
Updated: May 4, 2016Brian Whitmer, one of our emerging markets experts, talks about the Puerto Rican debt crisis and explains why the country's recent default "was not a surprise" to him and others at EWI.
Updated: October 29, 2015The evidence is clear. The stock market leads the economy contrary to popular belief. Episode 2 of the Elliott Wave Pillars series walks you through the overwhelming evidence that proves this point without a doubt.
Updated: October 14, 2015What is more likely: an asteroid hitting the earth or deflation? A famous hedge fund manager gives his opinion. You can review the evidence for yourself.
Updated: March 29, 2015Our Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg addressed why it the Dow priced in gold is important in this 3-minute clip.
Updated: March 28, 2015Answer: Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit. ...
Updated: March 28, 2015Answer: The U.S. government's Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation guarantee just makes things far worse, for two reasons. ...
Updated: November 26, 2014Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, peace, terrorism, inflation, monetary policy -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market. Here's the conclusion of our 10-part series.
Updated: November 11, 2014The Fed runs the market. Right? Well, "see if you can tell on this chart where authorities intervened."
Updated: October 28, 2014This idea of gold as inflation hedge is practically gospel. This chart shows a major flaw in this theory.
Updated: October 22, 2014As bad news goes, terrorism is at the top of the list. Why then do stocks ignore these terrible events so often?
Updated: October 16, 2014"Peace lets companies innovate and compete, helping the economy." True -- and yet, stocks will go where they go.
Updated: October 6, 2014"Some economists say wars stimulate the economy; others say war hurts it." These 4 charts negate both cases.
Updated: September 12, 2014"GDP reflects corporate success. So do stock prices. So how could GDP not impact stocks?" -- Solid logic, and yet...
Updated: September 10, 2014"U.S. trade deficit seems to be a reasonable thing to worry about." This chart shows you why it's really not.
Updated: September 9, 2014"Rising oil prices reduce corporate and consumer spending, impacting stocks and the economy." Right? Wrong.
Updated: February 3, 2014Positive economic reports are said to be bullish for the stock market, while negative data are bearish. But is this accurate? What a strange question, you may say -- but please take a look at this chart...
Updated:We start with a new interview with Elliott Wave International's Asian-Pacific Markets Expert. Next week take a look at money velocity and explain how you can learn a lot from watching "how fast money changes hands." Lastly, we explain why higher delinquencies should soon be a reality.
Updated:Learn why the recent price action in gold suggests to him that gold prices may be entering a risky period soon. Plus, one high-yield debt instrument that was at the forefront of the 2007-2009 financial crisis has reached a new, dangerous milestone and we're sounding the alarm. Lastly, at least one measure of optimism has returned to the height of the bubble days. Some say not to worry because "the economy is in far better shape than a decade ago." Is today really different?
Updated:As the amount of household debt rises, so does the risk of another financial crisis. Learn why the next debt implosion could be bigger than the one 10 years ago. Next up, our Currency Pro Service editor gives you his outlook for the dollar. Our last feature lays out evidence that shows economic news impacts the stock market less than you may think.
Updated:If you were to randomly pick three stories from the "recent news" hat, you might come up with 1) Marijuana, 2) Barbie, 3) Cyber attacks. They sure seem like random topics, right? Well, these stories are our picks this week, but they were not chosen randomly -- each one includes a strong and observable element of collective human activity. And that means mood. Let's get started.
Updated:Our first segment gives you a sneak peek of what analysts at Elliott Wave International have been watching in U.S. and global stocks, forex, metals, interest rates, energy and social mood. Next we take a look at legalization of recreational marijuana and answer the important question, why now? Lastly, we take a deeper look at Obamacare and reveal the real reason it's coming unglued.
Updated:After you peel back the spectacle, a lot of news these days is hard to read. Threats and hard-to-calculate risks dwell right below the surface. Yet an understanding of social mood allows you to go deeper than 'right below the surface' -- you can actually get to the bottom of the story. And not just one story… but the trend itself, which drives so many otherwise unrelated events.
Updated:More than 80 percent of economists predicted it would happen. The Fed would raise interest rates. It would be the 'All Clear' signal for the economy. But... it didn't happen. The entire economics profession was caught off guard. Listen to the 'follow up story' you won't get anyplace else.
Updated:This week we tackle the big stuff -- President meets President. Fed Policy. Which Party is in Power. And then there's the re-incarnated Muppets...
Updated:The stories this week span a wide range -- from the relationship between the economy and the stock market to "espionage software" in North Korea to waning complacency regarding the threat of nuclear weapons. Plus, this week's episode revisits a scandal that's still making headlines.
Updated:How do you define "Deflation"? Hint: It begins with psychology, NOT with falling prices. Deflation turns the economy and financial world upside down, to the point that borrowers get PAID by lenders. Get the 9-minute story in this episode of Pop Trends, Price Culture.
Updated:First you'll hear from our Chief Commodity analyst, Jeffrey Kennedy. Learn what he thinks of extreme volatility in commodities, he also offers his big picture perspective -- and reveals when he expects the next major low. Our Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg recently spoke to a packed house at a San Francisco investment show -- this next clip is an excerpt from that presentation. Steve goes through copper's price action and explains how it can actually be used as a market indicator to foreshadow a weakening economy. In today's last feature, EWI correspondent Bob Stokes also reports commodity prices. As Bob explains, one index recently fell to an 11-year low and commodity price declines have recently accelerated. This downtrend points to a rare economic trend -- deflation.
Updated:All three of today's features come to us from EWI correspondent Bob Stokes. First you'll hear about " financial zombies", then we'll switch over to the Fed and last you'll hear about how the U.S. is on the precipice of deflation. Halloween has past, but the financial walking dead are still among us. In this first feature, correspondent Bob Stokes takes look at a financial services firm that has seen its share price drop, despite aggressive stock buybacks. Investors and presidential hopefuls alike have been criticizing the Federal Reserve. The central bank appears uncertain about its monetary policy. Correspondent Bob Stokes poses an interesting question: Will the Fed even be around in 10 years? Deflation is already a reality in many quarters of the global economy. And mounting evidence suggests that the full fury of this trend is about to be unleashed.
Updated:This week marked another exciting one on Wall Street. A well-known financial publication suggests that now is the time to invest for the long term. Such an approach might be hazardous to your portfolio. Learn if the latest stock market decline is actually a buying opportunity. Market tops have always formed slowly, not a blowoff as many investors believe. Bob Stokes explained why this is important for today's market and your wallet. An important sector of the U.S. economy has contracted for the second month in a row. Deflation is a rare condition that's occurred only twice in U.S. history - learn if the third episode has already began.
Updated:Many investors believe that the Federal Reserve holds sway over markets and the economy. But a former chairman of the U.S. central bank says monetary policy cannot solve everything. Has the Fed become Utterly Irrelevant? Correspondent Bob Stokes explains what central bankers are up against.Should investors base market decisions on fundamental or technical analysis? A new study sheds light on this important question. Learn how the Elliott wave model helped prepare our subscribers for the recently ramped up market volatility. Japan's economic glory days in the 1980s now looks like ancient history. Indeed, some analysts say the outlook is so grim that a worst-case scenario is inevitable. Our last report is also from correspondent Bob Stokes who assesses the possibility of a default for Japan.
Updated:This week's episode starts off with a look at another financial crisis that will bring widespread bank failures. Big banks remain more fragile than most people realize. Many financial institutions never really recovered from the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Elliott Wave International correspondent Bob stokes reports on a new report that will open your eyes to the secret new government tax. This next feature is a clip from an interview Robert Prechter recorded Douglass Lodmell for The Mind Of Money series. Take a listen as Bob talks about his developing theory on finance and explains how financial markets are a psychological phenomenon. Today's last report from correspondent Bob Stokes looks at a study that found that changes in women's shoes reflect changes in the economy. You may remember that the women in the hit television show "Sex in the City" often wore stiletto heels, but in 2015 heels are flat or chunky. Learn more about this and other unusual economic indicators.