Search Results for "Economy"
The Great Recession "officially" ended nearly seven years ago, yet the U.S. economy still struggles to find its footing. Evidence reveals a steady deflationary slide is already underway, yet few investors are aware, much fewer prepared. "Make no mistake about it. It's a global story."
The U.S. economy grew at a snail's pace in Q2. The preliminary GDP annual growth rate of 1.2% took polled economists by surprise. They expected an increase more than twice that high. Find out how we anticipate economic trend changes.
Does the Fed's interest rate policy determine the direction of stocks and the economy? Many Fed watchers believe so. Perhaps they have not seen these two charts.
Financial media pundits like to talk about a "rebound" in the economy, but a new EWI economic report presents important facts that have gone underreported -- until now.
Have you ever wondered why the U.S. economy remains weak even after unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus? The reason boils down to just two words: deflationary psychology. Now is the time to prepare for what we see ahead.
Manufacturing jobs were the foundation of the U.S. economy. But since 1979, manufacturing jobs have been disappearing. We've gone from "making things" to "financing things." Learn why this is a harbinger of economic deterioration.
One economic indicator just marked its eighth straight week of declines. Another just turned in its worst five-year run since the early 1980s. Yet, there's even more evidence that the economy is on very shaky ground.
This measure shows you the growth in Real Per Capita GDP -- it adjusts for population, and it adjusts for inflation. It's all built into one trend line. That's a far more revealing picture of the economy. And, it's especially telling regarding the future -- specifically, the future of incomes...
In case you haven't heard, "good deflation" will actually benefit the U.S. economy. The pro-deflation defense comes down to THREE main arguments...
In February, the U.S. jobless rate fell to 4.7% as the economy added 235,000 non-farm payrolls. Some people attribute the economic improvement to the new president. Here's why the added jobs were anticipated well before the U.S. election.
Pete Kendall tells you that although stocks recently hit new all-time highs, there is a great slackening in the economy -- but not for the reasons you commonly hear about in the news. To watch the interview or read the transcript, click on the link below.
Nothing short of a complete overhaul will get the U.S. economic engine purring again. The financial mechanics have been trying to get that engine firing on all cylinders for five years now. They've used every tool at their disposal. Yet the engine continues to sputter. There appears to be only one fix.
The U.S. housing market has staged a significant rebound since prices bottomed in February 2012. Now, at least one measure of optimism has returned to the height of the bubble days. Some say not to worry because "the economy is in far better shape than a decade ago." Is today really different?
An important sector of the U.S. economy has contracted for the second month in a row. Deflation is a rare condition that's occurred only twice in U.S. history. Has the third episode already started?
"Rising oil prices reduce corporate and consumer spending, impacting stocks and the economy." Right? Wrong.
A year ago, economists were predicting a sustained 3% growth rate for the U.S. economy. Yet the government just said that the economy contracted at a 0.7% annualized rate in Q1. See a chart that shows a "relentless decline" in a key economic measure.
"Peace lets companies innovate and compete, helping the economy." True -- and yet, stocks will go where they go.
"Some economists say wars stimulate the economy; others say war hurts it." These 4 charts negate both cases.
Many recent survey respondents see clear skies ahead for the U.S. economy. But there's an important historic insight that investors need to know about today's economic optimism.
Deflation is already a reality in many quarters of the global economy. Mounting evidence suggests that the full fury of this trend is about to be unleashed. Give our just-released dispatch on deflation your immediate attention.
Many investors believe that the Federal Reserve holds sway over markets and the economy. But a former chairman of the U.S. central bank says monetary policy cannot solve everything. See a chart that shows what central bankers are up against.
The evidence is clear. The stock market leads the economy contrary to popular belief. Episode 2 of the Elliott Wave Pillars series walks you through the overwhelming evidence that proves this point without a doubt.
A study shows that changes in women's shoes reflect changes in the economy. The women in the hit television show "Sex in the City" often wore stiletto heels, but in 2015 heels are flat or chunky. Learn more about this and other unusual economic indicators.
Despite the Fed's stimulus efforts, inflation remains subdued. The trend in money velocity -- the rate at which money changes hands in the economy -- is not what one might expect during a bull market. One bond manager points to high-debt levels.
The September 20-21 FOMC meeting is over, and the word-parsing has begun. But while many see the Fed as the final word on the future of the U.S. economy and stock market, the real impotence of the world’s largest central bank might surprise you.
The April U.S. jobs report reveals that fewer people are participating in the labor force. The oil industry has been hit particularly hard and shows what can happen to an entire economy when deflation dominates. See a chart of another sector that has seen a multi-year job decline.
Marie Antoinette had been a spendthrift early in her reign, but curtailed that habit when she learned what the public thought. Even so, the young French queen had already been nicknamed "Madame Deficit." French debt had ballooned before she and King Louis XVI took the throne. But they received the blame for France's financial straits. Now fast forward to the U.S. economy today. Get ready for the blame game to turn serious.
In 2008, Europe's economy came crashing down. Ever since, the EU's monetary engineers have been trying to stabilize the sinking consumer foundation and sliding banking sector. Yet, take a look at these two charts.
Can the bull market continue without a stronger economy? Many people would say, no -- but when you dig a little deeper, you quickly discover that it's not supported by the facts.
According to the mainstream pundits, the long-awaited "Easter-egg hunt" of recovery in Europe's economy and stock markets is over! Optimism is off the charts. But it's what's ON our charts that warns caution.
News about today's economy only talks about "growth." The true story this chart tells isn't reported nearly as often.
"The economy leads, and the stock market follows." This common assumption is easy to check -- all you have to do is look at the data.
"If you want to know where the global economy is headed, check the oil markets," says one economist. Let's see if this theory holds as we look at a couple of crude oil charts.
The U.S. GDP growth has just been revised upward. That, many experts say, sets the stage for a stock market rally -- because the economy leads and the stock market follows. Right? At least, that’s what almost everyone believes. But even a brief glance at recent history proves otherwise.
The results are in: Two- plus months of negative interest rates has had no positive impact on Japan's economy. "It's like being Alice in Wonderland," observes one strategist. But, in our opinion, there's nothing "curiouser" about the futility of free money to revive Japan's credit markets.
From the start of 2013 to late June, gold prices took a 20% nosedive to their lowest level in three years. But if you think an improving economy took the wind out of gold's sails, the last six decades of history might surprise you.
Positive economic reports are said to be bullish for the stock market, while negative data are bearish. But is this accurate? What a strange question, you may say -- but please take a look at this chart...
European deflation has arrived in the U.S. before. So, it's worth asking the question: Is history set to repeat? Consider what has been happening recently in the European Union and the United States.
The transition from risk-taking to risk-aversion started off gradually in 2007. Then it suddenly accelerated. Our analysts see evidence that a similar pattern is repeating itself. Look at these two charts.
In the early 1990s, two simple words transformed the way the U.S. consumer saw it: "Got Milk?" Suddenly, the narrative changed from an obligatory drink you had to finish as a kid -- into a sexy, funny, and above all desirable treat for all ages. Until now...
U.S. retail sales rose in July, but to get the full picture, you need to see the two charts EWI's Chief Market Analyst recently shared with a packed house at the San Francisco MoneyShow.
A famous hedge fund manager recently said that deflation "is less likely than an asteroid hitting the earth." Yet, Europe already faces very low inflation and outright deflation, and Japan just suffered a stunning economic setback.
This economic indicator has stood the test of time -- and it's sending an ominous message. A 3 1/2-year shelf of support has recently been broken. See two charts that tell you what you need to know now.
"U.S. trade deficit seems to be a reasonable thing to worry about." This chart shows you why it's really not.
Investors and presidential hopefuls alike have been criticizing the Federal Reserve. The central bank appears uncertain about its monetary policy. Will the Fed even be around in 10 years?
Almost everyone wants to know if and when the Fed will hike the fed funds rate. But the central bank faces an acute dilemma...
The next big monetary event is approaching fast. No, it's not inflation. The evidence is mounting that deflation already has a foothold and is gaining ground. These two charts reveal a disturbing trend for anyone who's unprepared.
Over the last year, Walmart has gone from retail victor to re-FAIL victim of falling sales growth, store closures, layoffs, and on. Who's to blame for Walmart's reversal of fortune? Hint: It's not the strong dollar. It's deflation.
What you're looking at is a chart of... failure. This humble graph shows you changes in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, or PCE. It's like the consumer price index, but PCE better reflects what consumers actually consume.
chart of the day | This chart shows you the annual percentage change in the consumer price index -- or CPI -- of the world's 37 advanced economies. CPI tracks prices that households pay for a basket of goods and services. And here's what's relevant about this chart...
Answer: Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit. ...
What is more likely: an asteroid hitting the earth or deflation? A famous hedge fund manager gives his opinion. You can review the evidence for yourself.
The federal government is good at lending taxpayer money to borrowers who are unable or unwilling to pay it back. It happened during the housing bust, and now, some seven million people are in default on their student loans. Find out why we anticipate that the number will rise dramatically.
Robert Folsom explains that a real honeymoon means a "happy couple" -- and so far, Donald Trump hasn't made his "bride" -- namely, the public -- happy.
The Federal Reserve's assets have soared since its quantitative easing programs started in 2008. One chart shows why so many investors are positioned for inflation. Learn why they will probably be caught off guard.
Never before has the world piled up so much debt. A day of reckoning is at hand. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office just said that "the long-term outlook for the federal budget has worsened dramatically."
chart of the day | Here we have the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Spread. It's one of those indicators you don't see enough of in the financial media, even though it's a lot more predictive and relevant to investors, versus all of this week's hoopla about the Federal Reserve.
More than half of all student loan borrowers are behind in their payments. Some student loans may never be paid back. Guess who will probably foot the bill? Prepare now for a debt implosion in U.S. student loans.
The Federal Reserve is troubled by the jobs market, and for good reason. The central bank's own Labor Market Conditions Index is at its lowest level in seven years. Also, a record 95 million Americans are not in the labor force. Now is the time to prepare for what we see ahead.
Some financial authorities want to take away your cash. Now is the time to find a safe place to store your greenbacks. See a chart that shows how "deflation is winning."
As bad news goes, terrorism is at the top of the list. Why then do stocks ignore these terrible events so often?
Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, peace, terrorism, inflation, monetary policy -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market. Here's the conclusion of our 10-part series.
On June 2, the Wall Street Journal asked why the American consumer has become so "stingy." Today, we have the answer, and it might surprise you.
Over the last year, investors' appetite for risk has gone from red hot to lukewarm, culminating in the recent junk bond bust. Get the real story of the reversal here...
On August 31, Wall Street officially bid adieu to the fiscal Q2 2016. And, according to the experts, “better-than-estimated earnings” lifted U.S. stocks to record highs. The problem is, that’s just one side of the story. The other side you don’t want to miss.
How much faith to you put in a company's earnings data to gauge its future growth potential? Well, we have four shocking truths about the real value of earnings that will radically change the way you see this time-honored measure.
For the financial markets, the biggest event of the week starts tomorrow: On Wednesday and Thursday (Feb. 10-11) Fed chair Janet Yellen will appear before Congress to deliver her semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.
The April 1 U.S. Department of Labor report showed a 5% unemployment rate. The mainstream experts hailed this as a sign of "robust" growth. We, on the other hand, call April Fool's!
In late July, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a massive, $267 billion stimulus package -- the largest of the prior 23 years, if you don’t count the one during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. While most investors are wondering whether the stimulus this time will be effective, our analysis gives you a completely different perspective on the announcement.
In 2015, the mainstream experts said falling oil prices would help jump-start the economy. It goes without saying, this forecast did not come to pass as planned. The full story might surprise you.
Copper's uses are so widespread that earned a nickname for "diagnosing" the economy -- as in, "Dr. Copper." Well, Dr. Copper's prices have not been doing that great. On Nov. 23, MarketWatch reported that, "Copper futures slumped to six-year lows..."
News flash: The 2016 U.S. trade deficit was the largest since 2012, fueling President Trump’s fire to narrow the nation’s gap and bolster the economy. But this research shows historical evidence that suggests this approach could seriously backfire.
In 2016, the UK enjoyed its biggest credit boom ever, as consumers piled on debt hand over fist. Question: Is this really a sign of an economy running on all cylinders? Read our perspective today.
At its inception in 2013, EWI warned that Abenomics would fail to rescue Japan's economy from deflation. Now, a November 20 New York Times article confirms our forecast: "It's time to call Abenomics a failure."
China's economy is slowing. Its stock market began to crash back in July. And, the volatility rocking financial markets has been widely linked to the recent yuan devaluations by China's central bank. Speaking of that...
Alibaba's stock market debut -- BABA -- was supposed to be the can't-lose, golden IPO of 2015. But then, the stock plunged 30% and stands near its initial offer price. While it's easy to blame China's contracting economy for the BABA bust, that wouldn't be true.
Stock market price trends tell you much more than if portfolios are gaining or losing value. They give you a good idea of what to expect in society at large. For example, stocks lead the economy. Stocks lead movie productions. Stocks even lead inventors to invent.
Germany served as an anchor of stability during Europe's sovereign debt crisis. The nation is the Continent's largest economy. Even so, Germany's stock market now looks poised for increased volatility. Also, take a look at this downtrending stock chart of the country's largest steel maker.
In March 2015, the European Central Bank launched its unprecedented QE program in hopes of jump-starting the eurozone economy and reigniting stock prices. Instead, Europe’s no.1 market, Germany’s DAX index plummeted into a 10-month long bear market. That’s just the tip of this story...
The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.
What else is built into this TRILLION dollars of auto debt? Well, with a bubble there's always more. Click 'play' to see what we see...
U.S. debt is on the rise and could reach a milestone level sometime in 2017. Student debt has risen for 18 consecutive years, and subprime loans are a growing worry in another sector. See these charts to understand the threat.
The Eurozone, led by Germany and France, is approaching inflation targets with overall inflation for Eurozone countries coming in near 1.8%, just a little below ECB's official 2% target. But looking below the surface, all may not be quite as it seems. Brian Whitmer, the editor of the European Financial Forecast, offers his take.
U.S. shopping malls have seen better days. Now, foot traffic is dwindling. Major retailers are closing stores. One iconic retailer has just seen its share price touch fresh lows.
In 2016, the U.S. inflation rate rose from 1.4% in January to 2.1% in December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. So, how did classic inflation hedges perform? Let's take a look at two.
We've all read about, heard about and watched the many negative political headlines from across the planet. If you're an investor, you have to wonder: What does it all mean for world trade and global markets? That question is too broad to answer with one graph or visual, but: We do have a chart to start the conversation.
Greece's debt drama has returned to center stage. But global financiers are balking at another bailout. Meanwhile, Europe's banking system remains fragile. There's only one way "Europe's seemingly endless series of financial crises will end."
chart of the day | See a chart of two indexes, which represent two strongly-related sectors in the financial industry -- namely, banking and hedge funds. At a glance, the patterns look similar. But there is more to this story.
Big banks remain more fragile than most people realize. Many financial institutions never really recovered from the 2007-2009 financial crisis. A new report opens your eyes to the secret new government tax.
The stock of an economic bellwether has been taking it on the chin. This, along with other signs, could portend an extended period of deflation. Take a look at these two charts.
The fear of a European deflation among the Continent's financial authorities has almost melted away. Indeed, the majority of surveyed economists see an inflation jump just ahead. But, there's another way to look at the data.
If you count on standard credit rating agencies for timely warnings, you might find yourself "behind the 8-ball." Time and again, downgrades have occurred after the damage has already been done. Now is the time to protect your portfolio.
Day-trading in the stock market is all about the hope of making a fast buck. Today, the same psychology is at work in another financial arena. Hint: We've been here before.
Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash states: "The psychological aspect of deflation ... cannot be overstated." The manifestations of this psychology are already appearing. Learn where -- and how.
Even today, there are repercussions from the real estate lending boom that ended with the subprime mortgage crisis. In 2017, commercial mortgages are maturing, and some landlords face delinquency. Here's what that means for some bondholders.
Residential real estate prices in major global cities rebounded sharply during the current bull market, especially at the high-end. Now, real estate developers grapple with price deflation. At least one real estate indicator is flashing a bigger warning than it did in 2007.
In this interview, EWI's Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg gives you our take on talk about the stock market and recent volatility.
The Fed runs the market. Right? Well, "see if you can tell on this chart where authorities intervened."
In 2002, Conquer the Crash was virtually alone in warning about deflation. Now, European government officials acknowledge that the Continent faces deflation. More than that, the financial press is now raising concern about the prospects of a U.S. deflation. Are you prepared?
Today's dollar-denominated debt stands at $59 trillion. This is more than a mere statistic. See a chart that shows what happened the last time a credit boom turned excessive.
This idea of gold as inflation hedge is practically gospel. This chart shows a major flaw in this theory.
"GDP reflects corporate success. So do stock prices. So how could GDP not impact stocks?" -- Solid logic, and yet...
In this interview, EWI's Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg explains why the Fed and ECB don't really control the markets.
The historically low default rate of municipal bonds is a lure that will trap millions of unsuspecting investors. The list of American cities facing severe budget shortfalls and huge pension liabilities is long. Which city will be the next Detroit?
Borrowers who took out home equity loans during the heyday of the housing boom now face a big burden. And so do the banks that sold home equity lines of credit like they were cheap credit cards. One economist calls it a pending "wave of disaster."
U.S. housing prices remain far below their 2005 highs. Even so, we see signs that investors have re-kindled the old real estate mania. Their timing may prove financially disastrous.
The Fed's 2% inflation target remains elusive even after a prolonged period of near-zero interest rates. We see evidence of a rare economic trend that the Fed will be powerless against. See two charts that help to explain.
Federal government liabilities have reached a post-financial crisis high. And the Federal Reserve explains why another financial crisis is likely.
Introducing the newest crop of "oddball loans" -- bonds backed by dirty laundry. Here's why these "esoteric" assets are just one sign that stock market bulls may soon get hung out to dry.
Even if there are bubbles, "no one knows when these things will end," writes a May 31 CNN Money article. Now where and when have we heard this before?!
Robert Prechter talks about his developing theory on finance with Douglass Lodmell for The Mind Of Money series.
We here at EWI believe that you should prepare for an unprecedented credit implosion. See this chart that shows why you need to position your portfolio for a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence.
Many retirees could receive a smaller payout from their pension plans than they expect. Once considered out of the question, pension plan cuts are now on the table. One governor has just proposed a freeze on his state's pension plan.
In the clip from Steve Hochberg’s recent interview with MarketWrap Radio, our Chief Market Analyst explains that in a deflationary environment, you shouldn't expect to get a return on your money. Instead... Well, listen.
Homeowners were using their homes as ATMs around the time of the 2006 peak in housing prices. Today, many people are again borrowing against their homes. Learn why the housing market is prone to "boom and bust."
Many view bear markets as simply a downturn in stock prices. But societal changes also tend to accompany trend changes in the stock market. Will the "gender barrier" be shattered in the months ahead?
This credit-fueled financial vehicle traveled northward at breakneck speed. Two charts suggest that the return trip southward has only started.
Prolonged profligate spending has landed Greece, Puerto Rico and many U.S. municipalities in financial hot water. The water is about to boil over and almost everyone will be scalded. Learn what Alan Greenspan just called "extremely dangerous."
Many public pension funds appear on the brink of full-blown crisis. The financial numbers are alarming, even as the stock market trades near a record high. Police and firefighters in one big city are "quitting in droves" because they fear their promised pensions are in jeopardy.
We warned about deflation when others scoffed at the idea. Now, deflation has taken a foothold around the globe, and U.S. farmers and grocery store operators are feeling the pain. Food prices have tumbled as a result of deepening deflationary forces. Prepare now for the next phase when no one will doubt this developing trend.
Why are governments paying into public pensions? Why is the rate of increase in government payments so much greater? This chart speaks to the health of public pension funds. In a word, that health issue is "underfunded."
When a topic seems to be driving a lot of media chatter, you can quantify it to see if something more than chatter is at work. Case in point: 'Fiscal Stimulus.' Which, it turns out, is quantifiable indeed...
The world's financial system appears to again be at risk. Big trouble is brewing at big banks. Hedge funds are pulling billions of dollars from a financial giant the IMF calls the world's riskiest bank. Get financially safe now.
U.S. public pension fund returns have been hurt by a long stretch of low interest rates. Today, the funding gap stands at an astounding $3.4 trillion. Our research and others' suggests the bankruptcies of Detroit and San Bernardino may be only previews of what's to come for at least five other major cities on the brink of insolvency.
Building permits help answer the question, "What's next for builders, developers, the construction business and real estate in the U.S.?" You can see for yourself that building permits can be an excellent early indicator for real estate.
In this new interview with Pete Kendall, the editor of our Financial Forecast, he explains why he thinks we're at a turning point, or "phase transition" in politics, along with a turning point in real estate -- and what this means for the financial markets.
Answer: The U.S. government's Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation guarantee just makes things far worse, for two reasons. ...
Eating out is a bull market phenomenon. When people are in an upbeat mood, they tend to splurge at restaurants on food and drinks. But a shift appears underway. One analyst sees similarities to the first half of 2007, just before a major financial downturn.
Our Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg addressed why it the Dow priced in gold is important in this 3-minute clip.
Learn why these new bonds are such risky instruments.
"Bad, bad, bad" is how a global forecaster describes the May U.S. jobs report, the single worst for jobs growth in almost six years. Also, for the first time since the financial crisis, Wall Street pay has turned lower across almost all lines of business. Here's our forecast for Wall Street employment.
The delinquency rate among subprime auto loans is rising, even as total auto loan liabilities exceed $1 trillion. The CEO of the nation's largest bank raises a red flag. The Wall Street Journal calls it a "subprime flashback." Prepare now for what we see ahead.
Nine of our top market strategists offer a sneak peek of sentiment in their markets ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Pete Kendall, the co-editor of our monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, tells you more about the just-published Financial Forecast's special Election section.
Almost no one expected a dramatic decline in housing prices in January 2006. At the time, 43% of first-time home buyers were putting no money down. Six months later, housing prices topped. Today, owners of entry-level homes are once again highly leveraged.
It's been over 80 years since the world plunged into a devastating deflation. Now, an entire lifetime later, the evidence for this rare event is appearing again. Look at these two charts.
Financial optimism was on full display in 1999 and 2006. The rich were splurging as the stock market zoomed higher. Bear markets soon followed. Now, as we kick off 2016, the affluent are partying like it's 1999 and 2006.
Brian Whitmer, one of our emerging markets experts, talks about the Puerto Rican debt crisis and explains why the country's recent default "was not a surprise" to him and others at EWI.
The U.S. has just imposed a new tariff on steel imports from China. Trade wars between nations are the result of a defensive psychology. Prepare now for a trend toward protectionism.
Millennials financially struggle long after the Great Recession officially ended. More than half of those who move out "boomerang" back to Mom and Dad. How much do millennials earn? Take a look at this graphic.
Many U.S. dollar bears have expected inflation to trigger a collapse in the greenback. But inflation has been missing in action. Only one asset is sure to gain value during deflation.
The only thing the Fed has to show for its purchase of $1.5 trillion worth of Treasuries (QE) is a high-priced stock market. Now even that may be crumbling. The credibility of the central bank is on the line.
The days of $20 doctor house calls and affordable hospital stays for the uninsured are long gone. Chalk it up to government involvement in healthcare. Now we learn that "Obamacare" premiums will sharply rise in 2017. Prepare for what's next.
Steve Hochberg, our Chief Market Analyst, sits down with ElliottWaveTV to talk about his background, how he discovered the Wave Principle, and why "it's applicable to all markets."
Network television viewership is dropping, and so is interest in the Olympics. What does this have to do with bull and bear markets? Plenty.
Recent headlines say the housing market is "booming." There's no support for that claim in the trend of homeownership. (1:48)
The Oscar-nominated movie "The Big Short" is a gripping story of a group of no-name outsiders who warned of the 2007-9 housing/subprime mortgage collapse. We at Elliott Wave International know that story all too well...
In part 2 of our in-depth interview with Steve Hochberg, Steve explains what else makes Elliott wave analysis so useful and practical.
Pete Kendall, the co-editor of our flagship Financial Forecast, tells you how "it all began" for him at the New York Stock Exchange.
Real estate agents say that today's near-record low mortgage rates means it's a good time to buy a house. But is it? See a chart that debunks a common belief about housing prices, and learn about warning signs that are reminders of the 2006 housing bubble.
In 2003, we warned about the trend toward socialized healthcare and taxes. Now, the fines for the uninsured have increased in 2016. Now is the time to prepare for what's next.
Relying on government to financially secure your retirement might be a big mistake. Social Security is a wealth-transfer program that's headed for a major crisis. State and local government pensions are also in trouble. Are you prepared for what the book Conquer the Crash warns about?
Housing market analysts expect prices to climb again in 2016. But one EWI subscriber expresses caution. Learn what he just told The New York Times.
A big percentage of pension benefits go poof! Workers protest to no avail. The government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation is broke. Take the steps to secure your retirement now.
Delinquencies have been increasing for subprime car loans. Yet, car dealers are unfazed and have been allowing buyers to "trade in underwater vehicles two or three times." The credit boom is reaching an extreme.
Cash is the one asset that is almost sure to rise in value during a deflationary period. Yet, the "war on cash" has been escalating. Here's why you should start storing away plenty of cash.
This humble chart shows REAL average weekly wages -- and why a bigger paycheck does NOT necessarily mean more purchasing power. See why purchasing power has been flat for a decade.
Cash-strapped Puerto Rico is unable to meet its debt obligations as a key deadline passes. Investors in the Commonwealth's General Obligation Bonds have taken a big haircut. Other municipalities are next in line.
Toronto is the 4th largest city in North America and anchors a greater metropolitan region of nine million -- more than a quarter of Canada's entire population. A city this size is an ideal candidate to preview real estate trends in Canada and in the United States...
Critics say President Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement dealt a setback to the global-warming cause. But, the evidence suggests that "global-warming fever" had already been cooling off. "Crowds often think their personal cause of the moment is a permanent issue. It almost never is."
As the amount of household debt rises, so does the risk of another financial crisis. A new milestone has been reached in the U.S. But a chart shows that the dangers of debt are global.
The housing market is heating up -- again. Signs are appearing that are reminders of the previous housing boom. "Buyers are convinced values will only continue to climb ... ." Is the housing trend near a reversal?
In 2016, the prevailing sentiment toward China's economy was negative. Yet, if investors had avoided China's internet sector, they would have missed a significant advance. The whole episode teaches a valuable lesson.
You've probably noticed that lately, oil and stocks have been moving in unison -- so much so that today, people say that cheap oil is bearish for stocks, and higher oil prices are bullish. But do you remember that not that long ago, they said precisely the opposite?
The Elliott Wave Pillars Series walks you through why we view the markets and social action the way we do. You'll see compelling evidence that will help change how you view the markets.
Japan's economic glory days in the 1980s now looks like ancient history. Indeed, some analysts say the outlook is so grim that a worst-case scenario is inevitable.
On the same day that China released three positive economic reports, the nation's main index took another nosedive. Why? Learn the answer now.
The list of countries joining the currency devaluation bandwagon keeps growing. But how effective is this strategy really for restoring economic growth?
It's often said that gold and silver "always" go up during hard economic times. But you might be surprised to learn what the historical evidence says about this widely held belief. Let's start with gold ...
On Sept. 16-17, the Federal Reserve meets to decide whether or not to raise interest rates. It's been described as "the most important Fed meeting of the decade" -- and a pivotal moment for stocks. Yet, these four charts show you why it may not be.
You may remember that in 2008-2009, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression was ravaging stocks, real estate, commodities and other "can't-lose" asset classes, many called into question traditional economic models, as well as the Fed's "omnipotence."
On January 29, the Bank of Japan slashed interest rates into negative territory in hopes of fending off further economic weakness. History shows, however, the "free money" policy is futile against the "immutable" forces of finance.
On January 29, the Bank of Japan slashed interest rates into negative territory in hopes of fending off further economic weakness. History shows, however, the "free money" policy is futile against the "immutable" forces of finance.
On March 14, fundamental analysis experts in precious metals had their sights pinned on two main factors, both with bullish near-term implications. And yet, gold and silver prices are down hard! Here is our take on the situation.
Decades of research reveals that events outside the market do not govern the market's main trend, not even war. See these four charts and decide for yourself.
A mix of bull and bear market impulses is evident in today's culture. How is that possible with recent all-time highs in stocks? Shouldn't social mood be decidedly bullish? A Boston University econophysicist charts water's freezing process and makes a shocking discovery.
chart of the day | Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the U.S. GDP, so the latest uptick in spending is happy news for stock market bulls. Except, there is one caveat.
Most investors believe that higher interest rates are bearish. These four charts show you the truth.
Suddenly, the fact that -- prior to this crash -- China’s main Shanghai Composite index was up almost 40% YTD, seem a lot less relevant. Maybe Chinese stocks really were in a bubble? Here's one opinion you want to hear.
The euro plunged Thursday morning in a most dramatic fashion. Analysts rushed to blame the ECB's president Mario Draghi. But here's why the sell-off was in the cards well before his statement. Let's let these two charts do the talking.
Without question, over the past five years U.K. shares have been among the strongest equity performers, with the FTSE 100 recently rocketing above the 7000-point mark for the first ever in April 2015. But the "great bull market" isn't actually as great as it seems.
Rather than revive demand for Chinese exports, the August 11, 2015 devaluation of China's currency has fueled a capital flight by China's own citizens and businesses. The practice is called "smurfing," and here's why...
Join us as we review the Nikkei's recent volatility, and see how Elliott wave analysis enabled us to stay ahead of the market's "hopping" down-up-down-up sequence.
Most everyone likes paying less for gas and food. Economists have coined the term "joyflation" to describe these benefits of low inflation. But there's nothing joyful about a downtrend in wage growth and job loss.
A new day has dawned as the world's largest economies adopt a pro-currency devaluation stance -- led by China. So, what really happened to change their minds?
By 2012’s end, Japan’s stock market seemed to be locked in a bearish fundamentally-sound death-spiral with nowhere to go but down. And yet, prices embarked on a spectacular four-year long bull run to their highest level in 18 years. What gives?
How certain are you of the Federal Reserve Board's power to mastermind a global economic recovery? If there's even the slightest doubt in your mind, you're not alone.
China is dumping U.S. Treasuries. So is Russia and Brazil. Are interest rates set to soar? Learn why now may be the time to question the safe-haven status of U.S. government bonds.
With the help of the Wave Principle, you can spot investment opportunities when the fundamentals are at their worst. Emerging markets are a good example. Review this chart and commentary from our Global Market Perspective.
On May 5, Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Composite Index slipped to a two-month low. The mainstream experts cited negative economic data in China as the root cause for the rout. Sounds perfectly logical... at first read.
Elliott waves allow you to see before the news which way the collective psychology of market participants is leaning. If traders feel bullish…
Watch this video of Robert Prechter explaining social mood from an outside observer's point of view.
We're only two trading days into 2016 -- yet, so far, the new year isn't looking too promising. Right now, you may be scrambling to make sense of the DJIA's huge tumble on Monday. This excerpt from our December Elliott Wave Financial Forecast may help.
Meet the predecessor of the Elliott Wave Principle: Dow Theory has been around for over a century and boasts a consistent record of performance. Yet some analysts are dismissive. Learn why you should pay attention to the Dow Theory -- along with the Elliott Wave Principle.
Recent results from the July 24 auction of U.S. Treasuries show a continued trend of weak demand. Interestingly, the ultimate bottom in yields occurred one year ago at an all-time record low of 1.39% on July 24, 2012. We believe that there is a historic precedent for what to expect next in bond yields.
With China's Shanghai Composite index up almost 40% YTD, and the tech-heavy Shenzhen Composite up more than 90%, are Chinese stocks in a bubble? It's a legitimate question. You'll find many answers out there, but this answer you won't want to miss.
Many investors monitor the news for hints on how to position their portfolios. Learn why this is a BIG mistake.
Applying the laws of consumer economics to the stock market is a big mistake. See an illustration that shows how they differ.
Deflation has dogged Japan for the better part of 25 years. Enter Elliott wave analysis and the Kondratieff economic cycle. Is a major shift afoot? Two charts tell the tale.
Commodity prices are in the claws of a bearish trend. One index recently fell to an 11-year low and commodity price declines have recently accelerated. This downtrend points to a rare economic trend.
Has the much anticipated rate hike from the Fed already happened? See a chart that debunks the myth that the central bank is in control of the direction of interest rates.
The consequences of a negative social mood are far-reaching. One example is that the political party in power often faces a backlash from voters. Another is the emergence of an "us vs. them" sentiment. Both are at play in Germany. Keep an eye on the DAX index.
Every financial crash has been preceded by the same setup: an unsustainable build-up of credit. Rising rates will mean corporations will have a difficult time servicing their debt. An inevitable day of reckoning will follow. This chart serves as a warning.
Why would the British pound rise on the news that Brexit needs approval from the British parliament? Well, you could argue that the markets, unsure of Brexit's ultimate economic impact, showed their approval for a delay in the process. Yet, here is another explanation...
In the mid-2000s, the world feared it was running out of oil. Speculators, in turn, became feverishly bullish on oil's price. A 78% crash soon followed. Today, almost no one talks about "Peak Oil."
On October 4, gold prices crashed $40-plus per ounce in their steepest single-day drop in three years. Many cited "hawkish" Fed comments for pulling the rug out from under gold. But that only explains the metal's fall after the fact. What really happened?
It's a bit like watching Old Faithful fail to erupt when it should: To see a market "correlation" become disconnected can be unsettling. For weeks the media has looked at oil prices to forecast stocks. But Tuesday morning (Feb. 9) a CNBC headline said this...
One minute, strong UK economic data “causes” the British pound to surge against the euro. And then the next, that same data… is futile against a pound selloff. Any questions? The real story behind the EURGBP leaves no room for doubt!
True or False: If the eurozone government and IMF start withholding their bailout payments to Greece, then Greek shares will fall. If you answered true, then this story is a must-read!
At last count, EIGHT European nations are now in outright deflation. It's the "Titanic" shipwreck scenario "no one saw coming." Well, not exactly no one.
In the last four years, the popular pundits twice resolved that commodities would make a comeback. And twice the sector failed to fulfill their bullish New Year's "resolutions."
In late August, Germany's DAX index entered bear market territory, having plummeted 22% from its all-time record high in April 2015. But before you blame China for the rout, look closely...
Bear markets are faster than bull markets. Why? Because bear markets are driven by fear. Greed is a "slower" emotion. That's why it took the DJIA less than a week to erase the entire rally that took two years. But wait...
In July 2016, Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield plunged to an all-time record low. Many saw the Brexit bombshell plus further BOJ stimulus as sealing yields’ downward trend. And yet – yields turned UP in a powerful rally to a 7-month high. This is the real story as to why.
Let's say you're an alien sent to this planet to study human behavior. Your task: the stock market as a mirror or human collective psychology. Millions of humans invest in it. Can you learn something by watching them put their money in a collective pot? Oh yes.
The on-demand video of the 2016 Social Mood Conference introduces you to the world's leading socionomists. You'll hear their groundbreaking foresights into the radical sea changes in store for the entire human landscape.
Food for thought: "Fed up with banks' reluctance to lend," one of Italy's most prominent dairy co-ops has raised 6 million euros via bonds backed by cheese! It's a little funny at first read. But the larger issue here is actually quite serious.
Many of you have heard the expression "As goes GM, so goes America." Well, what about the European counterpart -- "As goes Daimler AG, so goes Europe?" The correlation dates back to 1999; and it paints a very interesting picture of the financial road ahead.
Successful market analysis is rooted in irony and paradox. Our gold and silver analysis at the peak two years ago relied heavily on five arguments directly opposed to those offered everywhere else we look.
The week ending Dec. 12 was the Dow's worst loser in three years. The mainstream experts say "plunging oil prices" are to blame for the rout. We couldn't disagree more!
On October 8, the Fed's "dovish" meeting minutes were released. One day later, gold prices leapt to a 3-week high. But here's why the one had little to do with the other.
How could the debt crisis in Puerto Rico affect you? Where is the next housing bubble set to burst? How do money managers signal major gold turns? Get the answers, today!
As the CRB index of commodities plunges to a 7-year low, many investors are looking to the Fed to stem the falling price tide. See why such faith is sorely misplaced.
With the yield on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond circling .3%, some say the JGB is actually facing "extinction." They also say the bond's fate depends on the BOJ. We disagree on both accounts!
When ECB president Mario Draghi launched the first-ever Euro-QE in March 2015, it was hailed as the "death of deflation." But now, after six months, deflation is back in the eurozone...
Last Friday (Oct. 2) at 9:06 AM, the editor of our Currency Pro Service, Jim Martens, emailed me with a three-letter subject line: "EUR."
China's Shanghai Composite Index just suffered its worst 2-day rout since the 2007 financial crisis. Now, say the usual pundits, it's up to monetary officials to stem the tide. Are they right?
On August 13, Greece's Athens Stock Exchange suffered its biggest single-day crash ever. But the experts say the country's economic woes are fully contained. We have good reason not to believe them.
Today, we step into our "time machine" and go back to July 11, 2008 -- the day of crude oil's all-time high. There, you'll also see how prepared the mainstream financial experts were for crude's ensuing crash.
It's been a summer of discontent for Europe's stock markets, as the upside seems lined with banana peels; or rather, Bre-nana peels! Say many, the fuel for Europe's sell-off is Brexit. But our records show otherwise: the makings of the downtrend were in place months before the U.K. decided to leave the European Union.
Elliott wave-minded investors must be adaptable to a changing market environment in order to be successful. Deductive reasoning is the best approach. See how Elliott waves and supporting technical evidence helped us stay on track with a bullish forecast for the DJIA.
Since plummeting to the abyss of a 13-year low in January, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rocketed 21% to enter official "bull market" territory on June 6. Some say the Fed's ongoing commitment to ultra-low interest rates is feeding the sector's fire. But there's a whole lot more to this new "bull" run than meets the eye.
When it comes to staying ahead of major price turns in commodity markets, many investors stay tuned to various "channels" which keep them abreast of weather, political, or economic events that may affect a market's future trend. But, as the 2016 rally in coffee prices shows us, there's only one true "channel" to watch!
What do governments, overseas buyers of U.S. stocks, corporations and even millionaires have in common? Answer: All of them have shown lousy stock market timing. Our independent analysis keeps you ahead of market turns.
Alan Hall, Senior Analyst for The Socionomist, explains that after nine years of negative mood, Russia looks a lot more threatening than it once did.
Welcome to the world of half-century loans at 1% and a 100-year note at a yield of 2.35%. One of our Global Market Perspective analysts says the European bond market has entered a realm of "sheer lunacy." These two charts help to explain.
Global political leaders and CEOs of major companies have a privileged perspective on the world. But even they can steer investors in the wrong direction. Right now, emerging markets appear ripe with opportunity, contrary to the "experts'" forecasts. Take a look at these two charts.
Last week the euro fell hard. The reason was plain to everyone: the Fed's decision to hike interest rates. But can you imagine another post-rate-hike argument -- this one, against the dollar? It might go something like this...
On December 8, Germany's DAX Index and the Euro Stoxx 50 broke out of long-enduring holding patterns, embarking on a synchronized uptrend to new 2016 highs. According to the experts, the main catalyst for the markets' breakout was the ECB's pledge to keep the QE tap open. But there's a very big problem with this logic.
On April 27, the World Bank Group upwardly revised its annual forecast for crude oil prices -- after oil had risen 77% from this winter's lows. As for seeing oil's rally in advance -- well, that's a different story. One worth reading now...
Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.net conducted a thoughtful interview with Bob Prechter recently. We thought you'd like to see it.
After a decade of doom and gloom, bankruptcies, bailouts and failures, many of Europe's financial leaders are ready to call it; the official end of the Eurozone banking crisis. However, a walk down memory lane may give you pause to join the party
With so much economic uncertainty surrounding Japan, how is an investor to know whether it's time to go long the Nikkei -- or stay on the sidelines? Answer: Elliott wave analysis!
In early 2016, the global debt market embraced one of the most powerful “long-bond bonanzas” in recent history. By the end of the year, however, the stellar long-bond rally had completely reversed course. As our analysis shows, this turn of events was no accident.
Back in 2008, the consensus strongly agreed that crude oil and the CRB index of commodities would keep rising. Instead, both markets came crashing down. Here's why.
On November 16, GDP data confirmed Japan had fallen back into a recession. No two-ways about it. Yet, the Japanese yen had more than two ways to react to the news...
Back in late 2007, one simple technical tool -- trendlines -- was instrumental in enabling us to forecast a bearish reversal in Germany's DAX Index. The time to use this tool is upon us, again.
Lately, copper's identity has been swinging back and forth from "precious" metal to "industrial" metal and back again. It's enough to make investors feel crazy! But in our opinion, there's a very clear method to copper's seeming "madness" -- one seen through the eyes of Elliott wave analysis.
According to mainstream wisdom, commodity prices revolve around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. But historical evidence proves there's a much larger force at the center of the commodity universe.
Chris Carolan outlines his forecasts for the Chinese yuan and shows you how he stayed one step ahead of China's currency devaluation steps.
"A Williamsburg establishment started selling a $100 edible 24-karat-gold-covered doughnut dunked in Cristal-infused icing. It's $1,000 for a dozen and it's not even in Manhattan." (January 11 Vanity Fair)
Our European markets expert explains why it's "too late" for Deutsche Bank and how this has now evolved into a problem across the EU.
In June 2015, the Japanese yen stood at a 13-year low against the U.S. dollar. And, with no shortage of fiscal stimulus in the works by the Bank of Japan, the yen's downward fate seemed sealed... key word being "seemed." We make sense of what happened next.
Robert Kelley tells you how he uses divergences between related markets -- and what they're telling him now about the markets he follows.
During November 2016, this global index fell four percent. For investment grade debt, that's all but unheard of -- the deepest in twenty-six years (the history of the index).
As of 2013, the daily trading volume in foreign exchange was more than $5 TRILLION a day. EWI's currencies expert, Jim Martens, discusses the pros and cons of trading forex vs. trading stocks.
Robert Prechter discusses the socionomic insight and explains how he developed the theory in this engaging interview.