Search Results for "Futures"
chart of the day | Two groups of futures and options traders, their activity in the gold futures market, and why (as usual) the extremes are extremely relevant.
Copper's uses are so widespread that earned a nickname for "diagnosing" the economy -- as in, "Dr. Copper." Well, Dr. Copper's prices have not been doing that great. On Nov. 23, MarketWatch reported that, "Copper futures slumped to six-year lows..."
Trend indicators are computerized studies that you often see at the bottom of price charts. There are literally hundreds of technical indicators out there, but of all those, one of the most useful ones is MACD, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence.
The mass "exodus" of financial institutions from commodities continues. Could this be a sign that the 6-year long commodity bear market has bottomed?
In early June, crude oil prices took a flying leap from 10-month highs, tumbling 15% to a three-month low on July 27. As for seeing oil's reversal coming in advance -- the "parachute" of fundamental analysis didn't "open" in time ...
For commodity investors and traders, it's easy to fall victim to information overload.
chart of the day | The Elliott wave pattern and the extreme sentiment show us the direction the trend in the euro should take next -- plus the specific price points to watch, which will help confirm the forecast.
Jeffrey Kennedy demonstrates how Fibonacci ratios help you determine price targets and turning points. The most common Fibonacci ratios are .382 and .618, but there are others...
Could a simple trendline help you identify price breakout points, manage risk, and identify critical resistance levels in the markets you follow? You betcha! Watch and learn from EWI's Chief Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy.
Where are commodity prices headed? Get some answers from EWI's Commodity Junctures editor, Jeffrey Kennedy -- and learn about the "30-year cycle."
In 2011, fundamentals painted an ongoing bullish picture for copper prices. Elliott waves, however, foresaw a foreboding reversal in the red metal's future.
On May 5, crude oil prices soared above $60 a barrel for the first time in five months. Now, see why the May 4 Libyan oil port protest is not the bullish catalyst.
Treasury Bonds are nobody's idea of a great action movie, yet that's sort of the point. But ... the extremes we see in Treasuries today are as extreme as this market gets.
Tom Denham talks about recent price action in gold and silver.
Yes, major weather events can temporarily alter prices. But ultimately, they will go back to resume their natural course. Take, for example, the recent performance by soybean futures.
In February, professional investors were record net short futures and options contracts on oil. Yet, we took the opposite stance. On June 8, crude closed at a new 2016 high. Take a look at this chart.
Supply and demand factors do influence crude oil prices -- as with any physical commodity, for that matter. However, crude oil futures are also a financial market. Here's what that implies.
About three months ago, hedge fund managers were the most bullish on bonds they've been in 10 years. Yet, our July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast warned a "trend reversal is nigh." Just four trading days later, on July 8, bond futures made their closing high. Take a look at these two charts.
Holy Soy! Between March 1 and June 1, soybean prices went from an 8-year low, to being the #1 performer among all 22 listed futures on the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Oddly enough, there was no fundamental reason for bean's bullish comeback. There was, however, an Elliott wave one!
You might not have noticed it that much at your favorite gas station (there isn’t always a perfect correlation between crude oil and the price at the pump) but in July alone, crude oil futures fell more than 20%, to bottom just above $45 a barrel on August 3.
The rally in 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has been over-believed. For example, hedge funds were recently at a record net-long position in futures and options contracts relative to open interest. Our analysis reveals prices are at a critical juncture. Take a look at these two charts.
In mid-2015, sugar futures were mired in a multi-year bear market, with prices plunging to an 8-year low. All fundamental signs pointed D-O-W-N. But instead, sugar prices turned up, in a powerful 90% rally! Know the real reason why, today.
Picture this. You are a looking at a price chart, and you see a wave pattern you recognize. Based on the pattern, you think the market should fall. Instead, it rises. How do you adjust your analysis? Let's look at a real-life example: silver futures.
The selloff in global bonds has been blamed on speculation that central banks will raise rates. Some observers point to economic data. Yet, we saw the handwriting on the wall four months ago. See how a combination of Elliott waves and sentiment measures can be highly useful to investors.
Here's a weekly chart of gold, covering the past five years: You can see that, from the peak high in 2011, gold's price trend has moved in a series of waves lower, recently down to levels last seen in 2010 ... So, what's up with those green arrows?
Back in July 2016, Japanese government bond (JGB) yields stood at their lowest levels ever amidst a supposed runaway "negative feedback loop." So, why then did the yields start rising to hit a one-year high in late January 2017? The answer might shock you.
Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.
See how expert commodity analyst, Jeffrey Kennedy, used Elliott waves to call for the 2016 history-making crash in the live cattle market.
Many energy market observers say "oversupply" explains oil's price plunge. Others blame the financial turmoil in China. We see a rare trend at work that you need to know about.
Gold's price had been turned back by a line of resistance on several occasions since May. But something significant happened on October 9 that every gold investor should know about.
All inverse funds and inverse ETFs suffer from beta slippage because they all track a certain market on a percent change basis. The greater the leverage and volatility, the greater the slippage. Bob Prechter explained this in his August 5, 2009, Elliott Wave Theorist ...
$37.75 a barrel is how low crude fell this week. You have to look back to the darkest days of the 2007-2009 financial crisis to see when crude last traded this low. But that was at the start of the week. By Friday's close...
The old Wall Street advice to "buy low and sell high" seems easier said than done. But there's a group of traders who consistently pull it off. Find out who they are and, more important, what makes them so different.
The price of gold just saw its biggest surge since January. Yet most precious metals traders have been bearish on gold. See a chart that shows how we've kept subscribers ahead of gold's trend.
From June 23 to July 4, silver prices exploded upwards, soaring 16% to a two-year high. According to the mainstream experts, the Brexit vote was a main catalyst for the white metal's winning streak. But there's much more to this story that they aren't saying.
In an interview recorded on December 19, our Global Opportunities Expert Chris Carolan explains which way bond markets around the world have been moving -- and which markets you should keep your eye on.
On December 8, Germany's DAX Index and the Euro Stoxx 50 broke out of long-enduring holding patterns, embarking on a synchronized uptrend to new 2016 highs. According to the experts, the main catalyst for the markets' breakout was the ECB's pledge to keep the QE tap open. But there's a very big problem with this logic.
chart of the day | This is a daily chart of spot gold prices, as the action stood on November 9, one week ago. Here are a couple of things that make this chart interesting. First, we see four completed waves of what we expect to be a five-wave pattern. Second...
chart of the day | European stocks, just like stocks in the U.S., enjoyed a rebound over the past few weeks. You may have heard different reasons for the rally in Europe, but here's one most analysts overlook -- and in our opinion, it's one of the most important reasons.
We often get asked about computerized trading "causing the market to stray from the Wave Principle." EWI founder Robert Prechter asked that very question in this excerpt from Prechter's Perspective.
From their March 2014 peak, lean hog prices have plummeted 60%-plus to a six-year low. Turns out, the price slaughter was not what the fundamental doctor ordered.
In this new interview, Wayne Gorman, the head of our Educational Resources Department, offers tips and strategies for options traders.
Market bears have suffered a severe shellacking as stocks embarked on a record-breaking run. But a classic Elliott wave price pattern gave investors a heads-up a year ago. See for yourself.
This week served us two examples of the same Elliott wave pattern foreshadowing a big rally in two major markets: first, the euro -- and now, gold.
Crude Oil is one of the most volatile markets on the planet. Find out what Jeffrey Kennedy, EWI's expert commodity analyst, called for at the beginning of 2016 and see how that forecast turned out.
Many observers now blame the dramatic decline in crude oil on "oversupply." But U.S. oil production was increasing before the price of oil took a sharp turn south. See what we said about oil's approaching decline.
Here is a classic example of an Elliott wave pattern warning you of a sharp market reversal BEFORE a news event that was later said to be responsible for the turn. Market: S&P 500. Event: former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony.
Elliott wave analysis has only three rules. Beyond those, there are many guidelines for wave formation. But a guideline is just that -- a guideline, while a rule is... well, something you cannot violate. Or can you?
Small investors have grown apathetic toward the stock market. On the other hand, institutional investors like hedge funds are extremely bullish. There's a parallel in market history.
Today, there are over 10 trillion dollars' worth of so-called negative yield bonds in the world. These bonds don't pay you a dime; no -- you, the buyer, pay the issuer. In other words, with a negative yield bond, you are guaranteed to lose money. Crazy? You could say that again. But, because bonds are "guaranteed investments," there is one interesting caveat...
In the past month, gold saw a big spike in volatility. Commentators pointed to the U.S. presidential election as the cause. But Elliott wave analysts made a forecast for volatility in gold when the CBOE Gold ETF VIX index had been trending lower, and made no mention of the election. Here's what we saw.
On October 4, gold prices crashed $40-plus per ounce in their steepest single-day drop in three years. Many cited "hawkish" Fed comments for pulling the rug out from under gold. But that only explains the metal's fall after the fact. What really happened?
On Feb. 8, U.S. and global stocks had a rough day. And what, says the conventional wisdom, "reliably" goes up when markets are "uncertain"? That's right: gold. But here's something you should know...
It's tempting to say that gold is up 16% YTD "as investors are seeking a safe haven." Problem is, this (very logical) explanation tells you little about where gold might go tomorrow. Elliott wave analysis, on the other hand, does.
On September 21, a perfect bullish storm brewed in the fundamental backdrop of platinum. And yet, on September 23, platinum turned down in a vicious sell-off to six-month lows. Let us offer you an explanation you won’t read in the mainstream.
In the face of historic optimism, which attended the July high in 30-year Treasury bonds, our June Elliott Wave Theorist said, "Bonds are on their last leg." In November, global bond investors lost $1.7 trillion. Sentiment has shifted to deep pessimism toward bonds but keep an eye on the wave count.
No trader wants to be "left behind" when a financial market takes off. But many traders jump aboard a trend just when it's on the cusp of a reversal. Silver is a case in point, for bull and bears.
Gold's price trend has baffled investors at almost every turn. Even going back to gold's 2001 low of $255, one major publication called the precious metal "tarnished!" Gold's price went up 653% from there! Today, gold's wave pattern is clear, and Elliott-minded investors are benefitting.
According to the mainstream experts, Emmanuel Macron's victory in May 7's French Presidential Election was also a victory for the euro. And yet, the euro turned down against the U.S. dollar following his win. No surprise here!
Since soaring to a two-year high in late December, natural gas prices have sweated 35% in value. According to the experts, a record warm winter is to blame for the meltdown. See our charts and decide for yourself.
Stocks are up. In fact, the DJIA added almost 700 points this week. And why not? Unemployment is down. Square and Match/OKCupid/Tinder's IPOs are doing well. Good news all around. That's why stocks are up. Right? Well, only if you read happy news stories...
In 2012, all the "fundamental" lines added up in corn's bullish favor. And yet, corn prices embarked on a multi-year bear market that persists today. Lend your "ear" to the full story...
In early December, two popular European exchange-traded funds, France's EWQ and Germany's EWG, had one thing in common: a bullish Elliott wave pattern called "ending diagonal" on their price charts. This is what happened next.
The recent nerve gas attack in Syria has brought the United States and other nations to the point of taking military action. The threat of a larger involvement in war is usually thought to affect the price of gold, as if it were a fundamental divining rod for gold prices.
Ask a mainstream economist about the relationship between central bank monetary policy and precious metals, and you'll hear something like: A hawkish Federal Reserve is to gold prices what kryptonite is to Superman. End the money printing and low interest rates, and you take the gravity-defying power out of gold.
Not one economist surveyed by The Wall Street Journal at the start of 2015 anticipated that crude oil would be trading under $40 a barrel. Most of them don't consider investor psychology, the true driver of big trends. And that's precisely what Elliott wave analysis helps you do. Take a look at this chart.
Is Donald Trump good or bad for stocks? The financial press says both! Such blatant contradictions appear regularly in the media. Keep an eye on the market itself. The Dow's price pattern pointed to a new all-time high months before the election, and anticipates what's next.
Investors shun stocks when they're cheap, but love them when they're over-valued. Financial herding occurs across all groups of investors, even among those who regularly advise against it. It's time to adopt another way of looking at the market.
On May 4, we were right alongside the mainstream experts with a bullish outlook on gold -- save for one "critical" difference. Our analysis identified a critical support level that, if breached, would tilt the odds in favor of a major decline. And that has made all the difference.
On April 18, crude oil took step one of a powerful rally that rocketed prices to new highs for 2016 -- despite one of the most bearish fundamental news events in oil's recent history. What gives?
At the start of 2017, the cards of "market fundamentals" were stacked in sugar's bullish favor. But instead of reclaiming the upside, prices soured in a 20% selloff to a one-year low in late April. Find out the unconventional reason why.
Malcolm Gladwell's best-seller Blink shows how our first impressions are unconsciously manipulated by forces outside our control. Now, hedge fund and other money managers -- they aren't unconsciously swayed by the masses, right? Don't be so sure.
In 2011 and 2014, mainstream finance resolved that commodities would make a major comeback. In 2016, those same experts predicted the sector was doomed. The end result: 0 for 3. But someone got the story right.
At the start of July 2016, cocoa prices were orbiting multi-year highs. And, according to mainstream fundamental analysis, the commodity’s uptrend was in the bag. So, why did cocoa prices then reverse in a gut-wrenching decline to three-year lows? The answer might surprise you
The next 48 hours are critical, say the experts. Nothing is as important for determining the Chinese yuan’s long-term trend as the April 6 meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Or, is it?
In the last four years, the popular pundits twice resolved that commodities would make a comeback. And twice the sector failed to fulfill their bullish New Year's "resolutions."
In 2010, a historic supply deficit was widely expected to keep the bullish wind in cocoa's sails. But instead, cocoa prices crashed in a 45% sell-off to 3-year lows. Now, a similar supply/demand picture is developing.
"Crude oil prices up" on fall in supply. "Crude slips" on supply glut -- any questions? Today, we get to the bottom of what really drives crude oil's trend changes.
When it comes to anticipating the record-shattering rout in German bonds, the final score is: Technical analysis: 1 Fundamental analysis: 0
In part 1 of this in-depth interview with Wayne Gorman, he tells you how he discovered the Wave Principle and explains why "the learning never stops."
Tom Prindaville, EWI's U.S. Intraday Stocks Pro Service editor, tells you why you shouldn't be afraid of volatility and why it's important to maintain more than one Elliott wave count -- especially in challenging and volatile market environments.
The three-month long roller-coaster ride in natural gas has been epic: First, prices plunged to a 17-year low in late December, then less than one month later, they soared 50% into early January before turning back down. Now it's time to harness that volatility.
In part 2 of our in-depth conversation with Steve Craig, Elliot Wave International's Chief Energy Analyst, he reveals why the volatility in crude oil and natural gas keeps him excited about the markets he covers.
Energy Pro Service editor Steve Craig has established himself as one of the world's most accurate forecasters of oil prices. In this short chat with ETV, Steve reveals how he came to EWI and, importantly, how he uses the Wave Principle to keep his subscribers ahead of the massive moves in crude and nat gas (5:01).
Our Senior Instructor Jeffrey Kennedy tells you about the four key principles that'll help improve your Elliott wave skills.