Search Results for "Interest+Rates"
The fledgling housing recovery has recently taken a step backwards as interest rates have climbed. Our indicators suggest that the real estate market is vulnerable to further weakness. Short-term speculators will likely be caught off guard -- again.
Peter DeSario, the editor of our Interest Rates Pro Service, offers his latest outlook for bonds and reveals if he thinks the bull market will continue.
Peter DeSario, the editor of our Interest Rates Pro Service, offers you more of his latest commentary on why recent bullish extremes in bonds are a potential red flag -- and something everyone needs to be aware of.
The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But it's a myth that the U.S. central bank determines the direction of rates. These two charts are revealing.
Most investors believe that higher interest rates are bearish. These four charts show you the truth.
Has the much anticipated rate hike from the Fed already happened? See a chart that debunks the myth that the central bank is in control of the direction of interest rates.
The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.
On Sept. 16-17, the Federal Reserve meets to decide whether or not to raise interest rates. It's been described as "the most important Fed meeting of the decade" -- and a pivotal moment for stocks. Yet, these four charts show you why it may not be.
What comes first? See the evidence on these three charts for yourself in Episode 4 of the Elliott Wave Pillars Series.
Pete DeSario, who covers interest rates for our Pro Services, tells you about the implications of negative interest rates an shares his thoughts on the upcoming Fed meeting.
For the financial markets, the biggest event of the week starts tomorrow: On Wednesday and Thursday (Feb. 10-11) Fed chair Janet Yellen will appear before Congress to deliver her semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.
The editor of our Interest Rates Pro Service explains why this was a "monumental" week in the bond markets -- and offers a preview of which markets he's keeping his eye on.
Last week the euro fell hard. The reason was plain to everyone: the Fed's decision to hike interest rates. But can you imagine another post-rate-hike argument -- this one, against the dollar? It might go something like this...
On January 29, the Bank of Japan slashed interest rates into negative territory in hopes of fending off further economic weakness. History shows, however, the "free money" policy is futile against the "immutable" forces of finance.
On January 29, the Bank of Japan slashed interest rates into negative territory in hopes of fending off further economic weakness. History shows, however, the "free money" policy is futile against the "immutable" forces of finance.
In an interview recorded on December 19, our Global Opportunities Expert Chris Carolan explains which way bond markets around the world have been moving -- and which markets you should keep your eye on.
Every financial crash has been preceded by the same setup: an unsustainable build-up of credit. Rising rates will mean corporations will have a difficult time servicing their debt. An inevitable day of reckoning will follow. This chart serves as a warning.
Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.
Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.
Elliott waves allow you to see before the news which way the collective psychology of market participants is leaning. If traders feel bullish…
Much like a cardiogram can show a doctor how the patient's heart is doing, Elliott wave patterns on a price chart can show you which way the market's collective psychology is about to take prices -- before the news, or without any news, period.
Conservative investors have been punished with exceptionally low interest rates. But at least they haven't lost money. Learn about a good way to defend your portfolio against rising rates.
China is dumping U.S. Treasuries. So is Russia and Brazil. Are interest rates set to soar? Learn why now may be the time to question the safe-haven status of U.S. government bonds.
Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, peace, terrorism, inflation, monetary policy -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market. Here's the conclusion of our 10-part series.
On December 16, the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Yet -- even though the rate hike was a foregone conclusion, the Nikkei's reaction to said hike was apparently all over the map.
The Fed's 2% inflation target remains elusive even after a prolonged period of near-zero interest rates. We see evidence of a rare economic trend that the Fed will be powerless against. See two charts that help to explain.
Many speculators believe that the price of gold is headed down. See a chart that shows what happened with gold during other times when sentiment was extremely negative. Another chart addresses the widespread belief that rising interest rates are bearish for gold.
The results are in: Two- plus months of negative interest rates has had no positive impact on Japan's economy. "It's like being Alice in Wonderland," observes one strategist. But, in our opinion, there's nothing "curiouser" about the futility of free money to revive Japan's credit markets.
On September 17, gold traders and investors were sure of one thing: IF the Fed kept interest rates near 0% for a "considerable time," gold prices would rise. The Fed did just that -- YET, gold prices dropped 1% that day. What gives?
Even with historically low interest rates, the U.S. savings rate as a percentage of disposable income has been rising. This indicates a deflationary psychology is taking hold, while the Fed grapples with weak inflation long after the end of the Great Recession. Prepare now for what's next.
On September 8, ECB President Mario Draghi decided not to extend the Continent’s QE program and to keep interest rates pat. Right away, the euro rallied to a two-week high... only to embark on a powerful sell-off shortly after. The reason why might surprise you.
Since plummeting to the abyss of a 13-year low in January, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rocketed 21% to enter official "bull market" territory on June 6. Some say the Fed's ongoing commitment to ultra-low interest rates is feeding the sector's fire. But there's a whole lot more to this new "bull" run than meets the eye.
The editor of our monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, tells you why he thinks 2016 will be an exciting year for Japanese and global investors willing to dip a toe into that market.
Ask a mainstream economist about the relationship between central bank monetary policy and precious metals, and you'll hear something like: A hawkish Federal Reserve is to gold prices what kryptonite is to Superman. End the money printing and low interest rates, and you take the gravity-defying power out of gold.
U.S. public pension fund returns have been hurt by a long stretch of low interest rates. Today, the funding gap stands at an astounding $3.4 trillion. Our research and others' suggests the bankruptcies of Detroit and San Bernardino may be only previews of what's to come for at least five other major cities on the brink of insolvency.
Most economists and most of Wall Street and most of the financial media believe that central banks set interest rates. Problem is, that notion is incorrect. And all the relevant evidence shows that it's incorrect...
The debt loads of companies and governments should be easy to service given the exceptionally low interest rates. But did you know that global bond default rates have hit their highest level since 2009? Learn why the next credit crunch could be worse than 2007-2009.
Michael Madden, who forecasts cross rates for our Currency Pro Service, tells you about the volatility following the historic Brexit vote.
chart of the day | This chart shows sovereign debt along a yield curve, which is to say, the rates of interest governments pay to borrow money for 10 years from investors. It's sort of a snapshot of global Treasury Note yields.
Correlation does not mean causation. Watch this new video by Jim Martens, the editor of our forex-focused Currency Pro Service, to understand why GBPUSD was destined to fall, news or no news.
Robert Kelley covers cross rates for our Currency Pro Service. In this interview, Robert tells you which cross rates opportunities he's most excited about.
Does the Fed's interest rate policy determine the direction of stocks and the economy? Many Fed watchers believe so. Perhaps they have not seen these two charts.
On October 27, one day before the latest Fed meeting wrapped up, gold prices flexed their bullish muscle, soaring to $1180 per ounce. Many experts did not see the Fed's coming decision as a threat for the rally. And then this happened.
In 2008, Europe's economy came crashing down. Ever since, the EU's monetary engineers have been trying to stabilize the sinking consumer foundation and sliding banking sector. Yet, take a look at these two charts.
The historically low default rate of municipal bonds is a lure that will trap millions of unsuspecting investors. The list of American cities facing severe budget shortfalls and huge pension liabilities is long. Which city will be the next Detroit?
The Fed just announced a 0.25% hike of its benchmark rate -- the second such move in the past three months. A long-held Wall Street belief is that higher rates mean a downturn in stock market prices. Let's put that belief to a test.
Mainstream economic wisdom says the Federal Reserve holds the fate of gold prices in its hand. Cut rates, and gold rallies. Raise rates, and gold falls. Recent history, however, tells a radically different story.
Real estate agents say that today's near-record low mortgage rates means it's a good time to buy a house. But is it? See a chart that debunks a common belief about housing prices, and learn about warning signs that are reminders of the 2006 housing bubble.
Question: Why did gold prices rally to a two-week high on September 18? Hint: The answer does NOT include one specific "F" word; namely, the "Federal" Reserve's recent "no" vote to raise rates.
According to mainstream financial wisdom, the Federal Reserve is to gold prices what Gepetto is to Pinocchio: If the Fed raises rates, gold prices fall. But one look at recent events proves the “nose” on this story is getting longer and longer!
The dust settled after last week's Fed meeting, the focus has shifted to their next meeting in October, the interest rate hike option is still on the table -- and so, the U.S. dollar is stronger... but what happens next?
The delinquency rate among subprime auto loans is rising, even as total auto loan liabilities exceed $1 trillion. The CEO of the nation's largest bank raises a red flag. The Wall Street Journal calls it a "subprime flashback." Prepare now for what we see ahead.
Mainstream economists say gold's trend is in the eye of the Fed holder. Rate hikes are bearish, while low rates are bullish. See why this love story isn't everything it seems.
Network television viewership is dropping, and so is interest in the Olympics. What does this have to do with bull and bear markets? Plenty.
The conventional wisdom says that the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged triggered a jump in gold to a 12-week high. But does the central bank's policy really drive the price of gold? See how the Wave Principle helps us to forecast gold.
Michael Madden explains the outlook for the British pound and currency markets in general and whether they have been affected by the UK's call for a snap election.
News flash: The 2016 U.S. trade deficit was the largest since 2012, fueling President Trump’s fire to narrow the nation’s gap and bolster the economy. But this research shows historical evidence that suggests this approach could seriously backfire.
The late Paul Montgomery, the originator of the magazine cover indicator, said that when a financial trend makes the cover of a general-interest magazine like Time or Newsweek, the trend is close to a reversal. See how this time-tested indicator helped us to spot the top in Icahn Enterprises.
The rally in 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has been over-believed. For example, hedge funds were recently at a record net-long position in futures and options contracts relative to open interest. Our analysis reveals prices are at a critical juncture. Take a look at these two charts.
Despite historically low mortgage rates, U.S. homes sales have faltered. One North American city has seen a dramatic plunge in sales. As we anticipated, price declines have followed. See how government embraced a real estate trend just when it reached maturity.
The selloff in global bonds has been blamed on speculation that central banks will raise rates. Some observers point to economic data. Yet, we saw the handwriting on the wall four months ago. See how a combination of Elliott waves and sentiment measures can be highly useful to investors.
In this interview, EWI's Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg explains why the Fed and ECB don't really control the markets.
Today, there are over 10 trillion dollars' worth of so-called negative yield bonds in the world. These bonds don't pay you a dime; no -- you, the buyer, pay the issuer. In other words, with a negative yield bond, you are guaranteed to lose money. Crazy? You could say that again. But, because bonds are "guaranteed investments," there is one interesting caveat...
Financial commentators parse every word the Fed utters, hoping to catch a clue about the central bank's next policy decision. But who really determines the direction of rates?
The Elliott Wave Pillars Series walks you through why we view the markets and social action the way we do. You'll see compelling evidence that will help change how you view the markets.
Welcome to the world of half-century loans at 1% and a 100-year note at a yield of 2.35%. One of our Global Market Perspective analysts says the European bond market has entered a realm of "sheer lunacy." These two charts help to explain.
John Jacob Astor has been called "America's first multi-millionaire," and he made a brilliant financial move that may interest investors. Today's luxury market appears to be in trouble. Take a look at this chart.
As of Nov. 25, the Russell 2000 closed higher for 15 straight trading sessions. The late Paul Montgomery, a renowned observer of market behavior, made an observation about consecutive closing streaks that should be of high interest to every investor.
Most people are in love with technology. Tesla Motors and its leader Elon Musk have been prime symbols of this adoration. We take a broad view of technology and find a repetition that should interest every investor.
chart of the day | You may have seen us mention the importance of sentiment extremes on these pages before. We don't take sentiment at face value; years of experience have taught us to use sentiment extremes as a contrarian indicator -- here's why.
A major shift in the trend of bond yields occurred in July 2012, when yields more than doubled through early September 2013. EWI predicted a pause in the rising of yields, which did occur. Now, investors are loading up on debt. Beware of the high level of optimism in the bond market.
Fed up with earning next to nothing on your bank deposits? It could be worse. Some depositors are actually paying for the privilege. Here's an idea for protecting your hard-earned money.
If you've been observing the Japanese yen purely from the perspective of market fundamentals since January 29th, you'd most likely be perplexed. Here's why...
When platinum prices plunged to a 6.5 year low on July 17, the mainstream experts blamed the Fed's anticipated rate hike. But that kind of logic is nowhere near inside the right orbit.
With the yield on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond circling .3%, some say the JGB is actually facing "extinction." They also say the bond's fate depends on the BOJ. We disagree on both accounts!
Much fanfare was made over Janet Yellen's appointment as the first female chair of the Fed. But it appears the honeymoon is over. The central bank's inflationary policies have been impotent. Learn why Yellen's legacy may be greatly tarnished.
Here's a chart you won't see elsewhere: Bob Prechter's analysis and observations, depicted visually in the 70-year interest rate cycle. If the symmetry holds, it suggests that the time to come could include years of crisis, Deflation, Depression and possible World War.
You may remember that in 2008-2009, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression was ravaging stocks, real estate, commodities and other "can't-lose" asset classes, many called into question traditional economic models, as well as the Fed's "omnipotence."
When ECB president Mario Draghi launched the first-ever Euro-QE in March 2015, it was hailed as the "death of deflation." But now, after six months, deflation is back in the eurozone...
On Dec. 16, gold traders were more bearish on a longer-term basis than they were in July 1999, when the precious metal was at $252.15. That day, our Short Term Update said, "It's tough to lean against the crowd ... but that's exactly what our analysis suggests is proper at the current juncture." On Jan. 17, gold hit a 2-month high.
Almost everyone wants to know if and when the Fed will hike the fed funds rate. But the central bank faces an acute dilemma...
According to mainstream wisdom, commodity prices revolve around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. But historical evidence proves there's a much larger force at the center of the commodity universe.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's December 16 rate hike was interpreted by gold bulls the world over as a virtual lightsaber through the heart. But as recent history proves: The "force" behind gold prices isn't the Fed...
In early 2016, the global debt market embraced one of the most powerful “long-bond bonanzas” in recent history. By the end of the year, however, the stellar long-bond rally had completely reversed course. As our analysis shows, this turn of events was no accident.
On January 5, the euro plunged to a nine-year low against the U.S. dollar. The reason why has nothing to do with Greek politics or a beefed up stimulus plan by the ECB...
Recent results from the July 24 auction of U.S. Treasuries show a continued trend of weak demand. Interestingly, the ultimate bottom in yields occurred one year ago at an all-time record low of 1.39% on July 24, 2012. We believe that there is a historic precedent for what to expect next in bond yields.
Borrowers who took out home equity loans during the heyday of the housing boom now face a big burden. And so do the banks that sold home equity lines of credit like they were cheap credit cards. One economist calls it a pending "wave of disaster."
The only thing the Fed has to show for its purchase of $1.5 trillion worth of Treasuries (QE) is a high-priced stock market. Now even that may be crumbling. The credibility of the central bank is on the line.
In the face of historic optimism, which attended the July high in 30-year Treasury bonds, our June Elliott Wave Theorist said, "Bonds are on their last leg." In November, global bond investors lost $1.7 trillion. Sentiment has shifted to deep pessimism toward bonds but keep an eye on the wave count.
On May 3, the EURUSD turned down (i.e. falling euro, rising U.S. dollar) in a powerful reversal to two-month lows on May 20. Turns out, the euro's sell-off was not in the popular, Fed-led script handed out by mainstream analysts. It was, however, in the Elliott wave one.
Whatever the Fed says around 2 PM Eastern on December 16, a surge of emotion will be visible in the markets. Emotions are natural drivers of price trends. And no method allows you to track the markets' collective emotion quite like Elliott waves do. So, here's what we know...
Have you ever wondered why the U.S. economy remains weak even after unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus? The reason boils down to just two words: deflationary psychology. Now is the time to prepare for what we see ahead.
The Fed runs the market. Right? Well, "see if you can tell on this chart where authorities intervened."
Let's say you're an alien sent to this planet to study human behavior. Your task: the stock market as a mirror or human collective psychology. Millions of humans invest in it. Can you learn something by watching them put their money in a collective pot? Oh yes.
On June 5, the Euro Stoxx 50 index recorded its longest weekly losing streak for all of 2015. As for why -- one chart speaks more than all the fundamentals in the world.
This St. Patrick's Day, some crude oil investors and traders may not be feeling lucky, as they've been pulled all over the map this week by none other than the "fundamentals," which are supposed to keep them on the straight and narrow.
On October 28, gold prices took off to the upside in a powerful surge, despite ongoing expectations of a rate hike by the Fed. Turns out, mainstream analysis of the yellow metal is pressing all the wrong buttons.
Robert Prechter discusses the socionomic insight and explains how he developed the theory in this engaging interview.
The Federal Reserve's assets have soared since its quantitative easing programs started in 2008. One chart shows why so many investors are positioned for inflation. Learn why they will probably be caught off guard.
Brian Whitmer talks about the negative sentiment in the European Union following the historic Brexit vote and outlines what to watch for next.
Even if there are bubbles, "no one knows when these things will end," writes a May 31 CNN Money article. Now where and when have we heard this before?!
Love or hate December's infamous volatility, if you choose to trade this month, you have to deal with it. And this December has certainly been volatile. Take EURUSD, the world's biggest forex market...
Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.
On March 1, the U.S. dollar did something it hadn't done in almost two months: It got stronger. Two reasons were behind the move, said analysts: The Fed's imminent rate hike, and, President Trump's widely-covered address to Congress. But here's one reason many have overlooked.
More than half of all student loan borrowers are behind in their payments. Some student loans may never be paid back. Guess who will probably foot the bill? Prepare now for a debt implosion in U.S. student loans.
We have often said that holding cash is a smart way for investors to protect themselves against a major economic downturn. Now, the manager of one of Britain’s biggest bond funds says likewise.
The financial crisis that began in 2007 is becoming a hazy memory for many investors. But perhaps you still recall the one thing everyone wanted during the worst of the crash, but could not get their hands on?
Knowledge of classic chart patterns can be of enormous value to you. For example, a contracting diagonal takes a wedge shape within two converging lines, and is the most common form for an ending diagonal. This knowledge helped us anticipate Sept. 9's stock market volatility, even though the market had traded sideways for most of the summer.
In a throwback to the last credit mania, bond buyers are once again embracing high risk in their search for yield. Beware of these two debt instruments.
Last week, the financial world had its eyes fixed on the Fed chair Janet Yellen's speech in Jackson Hole, as traders considered how her words would impact the markets. Dozens of articles later, one perspective was still missing almost entirely from the mainstream discussions...
Financial markets have a way of turning just when the majority of investors are convinced that the established trend will continue. But make sure a market's chart pattern also supports a turn. This market appears ripe with opportunity.
On September 21, a perfect bullish storm brewed in the fundamental backdrop of platinum. And yet, on September 23, platinum turned down in a vicious sell-off to six-month lows. Let us offer you an explanation you won’t read in the mainstream.
Housing market analysts expect prices to climb again in 2016. But one EWI subscriber expresses caution. Learn what he just told The New York Times.
Answer: Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit. ...
On June 2, the Wall Street Journal asked why the American consumer has become so "stingy." Today, we have the answer, and it might surprise you.
In March 2015, the European Central Bank launched its unprecedented QE program in hopes of jump-starting the eurozone economy and reigniting stock prices. Instead, Europe’s no.1 market, Germany’s DAX index plummeted into a 10-month long bear market. That’s just the tip of this story...
We're only two trading days into 2016 -- yet, so far, the new year isn't looking too promising. Right now, you may be scrambling to make sense of the DJIA's huge tumble on Monday. This excerpt from our December Elliott Wave Financial Forecast may help.
During November 2016, this global index fell four percent. For investment grade debt, that's all but unheard of -- the deepest in twenty-six years (the history of the index).
In 2016, the UK enjoyed its biggest credit boom ever, as consumers piled on debt hand over fist. Question: Is this really a sign of an economy running on all cylinders? Read our perspective today.
Sentiment has turned negative in India. Yet a classic price formation has been taking shape in the chart of one of India's stock indexes. Could this mean opportunity for investors? Take a look at the chart.
Back in July 2016, Japanese government bond (JGB) yields stood at their lowest levels ever amidst a supposed runaway "negative feedback loop." So, why then did the yields start rising to hit a one-year high in late January 2017? The answer might shock you.
Let's face it, bonds are boring. Bonds are the beige minivan of the markets. People don't turn to bonds for excitement. They are valued for their safety and stability. That's why it was all the more surprising when...
On Feb. 6, gold prices plunged 2%. The mainstream experts blamed the fall on a "gangbuster" jobs report. The real answer to what caused it, though, is right in front of you.
"Rising oil prices reduce corporate and consumer spending, impacting stocks and the economy." Right? Wrong.
"GDP reflects corporate success. So do stock prices. So how could GDP not impact stocks?" -- Solid logic, and yet...
"Some economists say wars stimulate the economy; others say war hurts it." These 4 charts negate both cases.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made this startling confession before a Senate Banking Committee on July 18, 2013: "Nobody really understands gold prices, and I don't pretend to understand them either." For some perspective, that's kind of like boarding an airplane only to have the pilot get on the PA system and say, "Does anyone know what this flashing red button means?"
How certain are you of the Federal Reserve Board's power to mastermind a global economic recovery? If there's even the slightest doubt in your mind, you're not alone.
On June 16, the Jakarta Composite Index plunged to its lowest level in 13 months. Now, we "hunt down" the real reason behind the powerful sell-off...
China's Shanghai Composite Index just suffered its worst 2-day rout since the 2007 financial crisis. Now, say the usual pundits, it's up to monetary officials to stem the tide. Are they right?
Many investors continue to pour money into municipal bond funds even after Puerto Rico's municipal bond default. We believe debt-market complacency will soon be met with regret. Cities and states face severe financial struggles even as the stock market remains elevated. Imagine what the next downturn will bring.
How much faith to you put in a company's earnings data to gauge its future growth potential? Well, we have four shocking truths about the real value of earnings that will radically change the way you see this time-honored measure.
At a 10-month high in early June, all "fundamental" signs pointed UP for crude oil's future. And yet -- on August 1, crude oil prices plunged below the $40 per barrel level for the first time in more than three months AND slipped into its third bear market in two years. See the story from a totally unique perspective.
Relying on government to financially secure your retirement might be a big mistake. Social Security is a wealth-transfer program that's headed for a major crisis. State and local government pensions are also in trouble. Are you prepared for what the book Conquer the Crash warns about?
Bearish hedge fund managers were woefully caught off guard in December 2015 when gold launched a 31% rally into July of this year. By contrast, we told subscribers that a sharp rally was imminent right at the low. Now, gold's price appears to face another key juncture.
As 2017 began, all fundamental signs pointed DOWN for China’s ever-depreciating yuan. Three weeks into the year, and the yuan is on a very different course; namely, up! Look no further for an explanation.
As of 2013, the daily trading volume in foreign exchange was more than $5 TRILLION a day. EWI's currencies expert, Jim Martens, discusses the pros and cons of trading forex vs. trading stocks.
In this new clip from Steve Hochberg's presentation at the 2016 San Francisco MoneyShow, you'll see how the extreme sentiment surrounding gold helped him anticipate its looming reversal.
In late 2015, the mainstream experts were certain of one thing: The Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in nine years was set to drive a stake through the heart of silver’s upside potential. And yet, the white metal took off in December on a 50%-strong, 7-month-long rally to multi-year highs. This story is worth the wait!
In June 2015, the Japanese yen stood at a 13-year low against the U.S. dollar. And, with no shortage of fiscal stimulus in the works by the Bank of Japan, the yen's downward fate seemed sealed... key word being "seemed." We make sense of what happened next.
2016 has been a year of shocks. And for many gold bugs, that includes the unrelenting downtrend that gold prices have endured since June. According to the experts, gold was supposed to be soaring, not sputtering. So, what happened?
Learn how the Elliott Wave Principle enhances your market-forecasting ability by giving you market "context." Our Currency Pro Services analyst Michael Madden explains.
Successful market analysis is rooted in irony and paradox. Our gold and silver analysis at the peak two years ago relied heavily on five arguments directly opposed to those offered everywhere else we look.
Marie Antoinette had been a spendthrift early in her reign, but curtailed that habit when she learned what the public thought. Even so, the young French queen had already been nicknamed "Madame Deficit." French debt had ballooned before she and King Louis XVI took the throne. But they received the blame for France's financial straits. Now fast forward to the U.S. economy today. Get ready for the blame game to turn serious.
This is a weekly chart of the natural gas market. It posted on October 2, in our monthly Global Market Perspective publication. A lot has happened since then, but, on Oct. 2, this chart showed the five-year high...
On October 8, the Fed's "dovish" meeting minutes were released. One day later, gold prices leapt to a 3-week high. But here's why the one had little to do with the other.
As the CRB index of commodities plunges to a 7-year low, many investors are looking to the Fed to stem the falling price tide. See why such faith is sorely misplaced.
More babies were born in 2007 than any other year in U.S. history. But the birth rate dropped to a century-low in 2009. What happened? We offer an answer.
Even as the Dow hovers in record-high territory, some sectors have slipped into a bear market. Venture capital for U.S. business startups is drying up. For many technology firms, "the game is already over."
Small investors have grown apathetic toward the stock market. On the other hand, institutional investors like hedge funds are extremely bullish. There's a parallel in market history.
Some financial authorities want to take away your cash. Now is the time to find a safe place to store your greenbacks. See a chart that shows how "deflation is winning."
Financial media pundits like to talk about a "rebound" in the economy, but a new EWI economic report presents important facts that have gone underreported -- until now.
The stock market's ramped-up volatility has many observers trying to figure out the cause. One believes he knows the answer. We investigate.
chart of the day | Here we have the Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Spread. It's one of those indicators you don't see enough of in the financial media, even though it's a lot more predictive and relevant to investors, versus all of this week's hoopla about the Federal Reserve.
It's often said that gold and silver "always" go up during hard economic times. But you might be surprised to learn what the historical evidence says about this widely held belief. Let's start with gold ...
Even today, there are repercussions from the real estate lending boom that ended with the subprime mortgage crisis. In 2017, commercial mortgages are maturing, and some landlords face delinquency. Here's what that means for some bondholders.
"If you knew earnings would rise for next 6 quarters, would you buy stocks?" Yes, it's a trick question.
We here at EWI first discussed Bitcoin when the currency traded for pennies. What are Bob Prechter's thoughts on this digital currency?
Greece's government debt-to-GDP is higher now than it was during the sovereign debt crisis five years ago. The world may soon shift its attention from a Greek debt drama to one that plays out on the global stage.
The Shanghai Composite fell 8% on July 8, for a total of 32% since the June 12 peak. Trading was halted by the authorities. Using the word "crash" is becoming appropriate. But, strangely, stocks are not the only asset class crashing in China right now.
Wow, how far we've come. A year ago, saying that the euro and U.S. dollar would soon reach parity would have been laughed at. At the time, the euro-dollar exchange rate was trading near $1.40. By March of this year, it fell about four cents away from parity. Will it get there?
We warned about deflation when others scoffed at the idea. Now, deflation has taken a foothold around the globe, and U.S. farmers and grocery store operators are feeling the pain. Food prices have tumbled as a result of deepening deflationary forces. Prepare now for the next phase when no one will doubt this developing trend.
The downtrend in commodity prices was advertised in the chart pattern long before China's economic slowdown. Now, sentiment has reached a negative extreme.
The sentiment surrounding company stock buybacks goes from cheers to jeers. Also, a splintering is taking place in M&A deals. Are these signs of a historic trend shift in stocks?
This week served us two examples of the same Elliott wave pattern foreshadowing a big rally in two major markets: first, the euro -- and now, gold.
Crushing debt is taking a toll on America's municipalities. The biggest municipal default since Detroit looms in California.
Something unprecedented has just occurred in the stock market. A researcher calls this market action "unheard of" and we believe you should prepare for more of the same. Two charts are instructive.
An exponential rise in a financial market usually ends badly. Investors typically buy at the worst possible time. See the chart of a European sector that is poised to plunge.
Bond prices have been trending lower (yields rising), and investors appear vulnerable to even greater volatility. Learn why selling pressure could accelerate.
Investors and presidential hopefuls alike have been criticizing the Federal Reserve. The central bank appears uncertain about its monetary policy. Will the Fed even be around in 10 years?
Financial markets tend to turn when most investors least expect it. Deep complacency toward stocks suggests that more triple-digit Dow declines may be just ahead.
U.S. companies have loaded up on debt. A Goldman Sachs strategist calls their balance-sheet health "increasingly alarming." Yet these same corporations are speculating in the stock market. "It's a strategy they will come to regret."
Prolonged profligate spending has landed Greece, Puerto Rico and many U.S. municipalities in financial hot water. The water is about to boil over and almost everyone will be scalded. Learn what Alan Greenspan just called "extremely dangerous."
Should you buy gold mining shares if you're bullish gold? Two charts and accompanying commentary provide valuable perspective.
Bloomberg describes a contingent convertible bond as a "high-yield investment with a hand grenade attached." Learn why, and also take a look at a chart of dollar-denominated financial bonds that shows a five-waves up pattern.
Stock market price trends tell you much more than if portfolios are gaining or losing value. They give you a good idea of what to expect in society at large. For example, stocks lead the economy. Stocks lead movie productions. Stocks even lead inventors to invent.
On October 4, gold prices crashed $40-plus per ounce in their steepest single-day drop in three years. Many cited "hawkish" Fed comments for pulling the rug out from under gold. But that only explains the metal's fall after the fact. What really happened?
With the Shanghai Composite index 30% below its June 12 peak, China's government has a clear, two-part damage control plan for future losses. Will it work?
Over the last year, investors' appetite for risk has gone from red hot to lukewarm, culminating in the recent junk bond bust. Get the real story of the reversal here...
Most everyone likes paying less for gas and food. Economists have coined the term "joyflation" to describe these benefits of low inflation. But there's nothing joyful about a downtrend in wage growth and job loss.
By 2012’s end, Japan’s stock market seemed to be locked in a bearish fundamentally-sound death-spiral with nowhere to go but down. And yet, prices embarked on a spectacular four-year long bull run to their highest level in 18 years. What gives?
EWI is dedicated to helping subscribers anticipate the next major market turn. No, we don't always "get it right" – yet these examples speak for themselves. Most investors never saw these major trend changes coming.
The 20 percent-plus sell-off in China's Shanghai Composite Index fails to follow any clear "fundamental" script. The decline does, however, follow an Elliott wave one.
Last Friday (Oct. 2) at 9:06 AM, the editor of our Currency Pro Service, Jim Martens, emailed me with a three-letter subject line: "EUR."
Never before has the world piled up so much debt. A day of reckoning is at hand. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office just said that "the long-term outlook for the federal budget has worsened dramatically."
On August 13, Greece's Athens Stock Exchange suffered its biggest single-day crash ever. But the experts say the country's economic woes are fully contained. We have good reason not to believe them.
Yes, you can maintain your financial objectivity when others are losing it. For example, when fear was running rampant during the 2008 bear market, one Asian-Pacific analyst made a historic forecast for a huge rally. Here's how he did it. ...
Despite the Fed's stimulus efforts, inflation remains subdued. The trend in money velocity -- the rate at which money changes hands in the economy -- is not what one might expect during a bull market. One bond manager points to high-debt levels.
This idea of gold as inflation hedge is practically gospel. This chart shows a major flaw in this theory.
On February 12, Japan's Nikkei 225 index soared to a 7-year high, begging the question: Is Japan's 23-year long bear market finally over?
On July 7, gold prices turned down in a $20/oz. intraday tumble. As for what caused gold to lose its luster -- see why Greece's debt crisis is NOT the reason.
Chuck Thompson, Senior Analyst for The Socionomist, explains that negative social mood is impelling voters to look beyond the two-party system for answers.
Investors can get badly hurt when a financial bubble implodes. But, if you're positioned properly, downtrends can be your friend. One of our Global Market Perspective analysts examines a sector in Australia that may be on the cusp of a significant move. See the chart and read the commentary.
On May 4, we were right alongside the mainstream experts with a bullish outlook on gold -- save for one "critical" difference. Our analysis identified a critical support level that, if breached, would tilt the odds in favor of a major decline. And that has made all the difference.
Here's what we know from three-plus decades of observing markets: When prices move in a sideways, choppy fashion -- it’s a corrective pattern. That is to say, the market is making a “pause” within the larger trend; the actual trend should soon resume.
In part 2 of our in-depth interview with Steve Hochberg, Steve explains what else makes Elliott wave analysis so useful and practical.
For nearly two years, the euro has been mired in a sideways holding pattern... until now. In late November, the currency woke DOWN from its sideways slumber and plunged to a 14-year low against the U.S. dollar. The reason for the euro's crash might surprise you.
Dr. Jon Fassett brought his knowledge and enthusiasm for fractals in nature and finance to the 2016 Social Mood Conference on April 9 in Atlanta, GA.
EWI's Asian-Markets expert, Chris Carolan, has been regularly covering the Chinese yuan since 2014. See how his stunning two-year forecast proves this "manipulated" currency isn't unpredictable through the Elliott Wave method.
At last count, EIGHT European nations are now in outright deflation. It's the "Titanic" shipwreck scenario "no one saw coming." Well, not exactly no one.
Remember how during the time of the Greek bailout a couple of weeks ago, the euro didn't seem to "know" which way to go next? There is a reason for that, says The Wall Street Journal: carry trade.
For most of this summer, the U.S. stock market was about as volatile as a yoga retreat. Now, it's a model of turbulence. Yet somehow, the mainstream experts have insisted that both volatility scenarios are bullish! Keep reading...
In part 1 of this in-depth interview with Wayne Gorman, he tells you how he discovered the Wave Principle and explains why "the learning never stops."
Energy Pro Service editor Steve Craig has established himself as one of the world's most accurate forecasters of oil prices. In this short chat with ETV, Steve reveals how he came to EWI and, importantly, how he uses the Wave Principle to keep his subscribers ahead of the massive moves in crude and nat gas (5:01).
The Oscar-nominated movie "The Big Short" is a gripping story of a group of no-name outsiders who warned of the 2007-9 housing/subprime mortgage collapse. We at Elliott Wave International know that story all too well...
In 2012, all fundamental signs in wheat's backdrop pointed UP. But instead, wheat prices entered a four-year long, 50%-plus deep bear market to the decade lows we see today. The grain went off its fundamental script. But it stayed true to its Elliott wave one.
University of Delaware professor and 2016 Social Mood Conference speaker Nerissa Brown explains how her research on herding overlaps with the study of social mood.
Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.net conducted a thoughtful interview with Bob Prechter recently. We thought you'd like to see it.