80 Results

Market Myth #4: Interest Rates Drive Stock Prices

Updated: November 21, 2017

Think the Fed's interest rates control the stock market? Watch as Matt Lampert shows you how to bust this market myth in 2 minutes, using real-world examples from Robert Prechter's Socionomic Theory of Finance.

Are All Bonds EQUALLY Low Risk?

Updated: November 21, 2017

The junk-to-treasury spread recently closed to ZERO, for the first time EVER. Wall Street says "no big deal" -- now see for yourself how BIG this is.

Big Default, Small Default: Tests of Confidence in the Global Debt Market

Updated: November 20, 2017

What happens when HIGH consumer confidence joins LOW savings See and hear the answer right now

US Treasury Bonds Are Flashing Red Alert Again

Updated: November 9, 2017

Who "controls" interest rates? Wall Street thinks it knows, but see our answer for yourself.

What Happens When the Fed FINALLY Reduces Its $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet?

Updated: October 4, 2017

The Federal Reserve announced last month that they would start to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, thereby starting the process we call Quantitative Tightening (QT)...

What Does "Desperate Complacency" Look Like? See For Yourself...

Updated: September 14, 2017

The "Term Premium" for bonds was below zero for decades. Not now: See why markets are ripe for an historic moment.

Believe Your Own Eyes: Central Banks FOLLOW the Market

Updated: September 14, 2017

The longstanding myth is, the interest rate market follows the lead of the central bank. Now see the facts for yourself.

Why Speculators Should Keep a Close Eye on the Bond Market

Updated: September 8, 2017

Bonds are generally considered far less risky than the stock market. That's a big reason why flows into bond mutual funds and ETFs have been substantial in the past two years. But there's a major reason to be wary of the bond market. See for yourself.

President Trump and ... the Yield Curve?

Updated: August 25, 2017

This chart offers a completely different take on the question of why President Trump's approval is falling.

Jackson (W)Hole Lotta Hype

Updated: August 24, 2017

This week, the great and the good from central banks around the world gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the annual Kansas City Fed Economic Policy Symposium, and the world's financial media will hang on every word in the hope that something meaningful will be said...

Why the Bond Market Should Be Watching Tesla

Updated: August 22, 2017

Tesla's share price at an all-time high, its junk bond yield at a record low. Today's investor appetite for risk is strong indeed...

Bank of Canada Hike: Surprised? You shouldn't be.

Updated: July 13, 2017

Grabbing the headlines today is the Bank of Canada's first interest rate hike in seven years. Speculation amongst conventional economists has now turned to whether they will continue to hike rates. We have a simple answer to that question: watch the market.

This is Why Municipal Bonds Are No "Day at the Beach"

Updated: July 5, 2017

Even during a national economic expansion, many U.S. municipalities are financially troubled. "Two out of every three states took in less tax revenue than expected this year." This chart of muni bond yield spreads will make you wonder about the future.

EURUSD: How to "Peek" Around 2 "Corners" at Once

Updated: June 16, 2017

As is often the case before a big news event, EURUSD went mostly sideways into the June 14 Fed meeting. Traders were waiting to see what the Fed does and says. But here's what Elliott wave forex traders saw...

Fed Week: One and Done?

Updated: June 13, 2017

Whenever the Fed makes its scheduled interest rates announcement, it's almost always an exciting moment in the markets. But, for an objective guidance on future Fed actions, keep calm ... and follow market rates.

Municipal Bonds: Still "on Track for a Train Wreck"

Updated: June 12, 2017

The head of credit research for a municipal-bond management firm just commented: "We haven't seen this in a modern state before." He was talking about Illinois' deep fiscal trouble. Look at the eye-brow-raising credit spread.

Why Renewed Danger Lurks in the U.S. Leveraged Loan Market

Updated: June 7, 2017

In investing, one rule of thumb tells you that the higher the return, the higher the risk. Today, one high-yield debt instrument that was at the forefront of the 2007-2009 financial crisis has reached a new, dangerous milestone. We're sounding the alarm -- again.

Higher Interest Rates: "Good" for the U.S. Dollar?

Updated: June 6, 2017

Financial news networks spend untold hours debating with their guests as to whether interest rates will rise or fall -- and the effect that will have on the currency. But what if they argued ... over nothing? See this chart and analysis from Murray Gunn and decide for yourself.

Debt, Politics, and Russia: A "Spike" Dead Ahead?

Updated: May 17, 2017

Charts like this one show that markets can anticipate huge shifts in broad psychology: Another dangerous spike may be just around the bend.

Bonds: What Hedge Funds' "Record Reversal" Tells You

Updated: May 17, 2017

Maxwell Edison may have majored in medicine, as the Beatles sang, but many of the "brainiacs" on Wall Street are hedge fund managers. Even so, their performance record at key market turns often leaves a lot to be desired. See this eye-opening bond market chart.

Gold: Will the Decline Continue?

Updated: May 5, 2017

Tom Denham tells you why looking at the U.S. dollar, interest rates and politics are the wrong tools when trying to forecast the price action in gold. Here's what's a better indicator.

Gold: Will the Decline Continue

Updated: May 5, 2017

Tom Denham tells you why looking at the U.S. dollar, interest rates and politics are the wrong tools when trying to forecast the price action in gold. Here's what's a better indicator.

Recall This Bond Trader Chart? Here's What Happened

Updated: April 25, 2017

Our three recent Treasury Bond charts combine to show you trader sentiment, price action and important near-term turns and trends.

What to Expect for Interest Rates During Deflation

Updated: April 7, 2017

The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.

Bond Traders And Sentiment Reversal: Here's What It Looks Like

Updated: March 23, 2017

Two trader groups habitually on opposite sides of the market are at it again: See what past extremes say to the present trend.

Here's the Real Reason the Fed is Raising Rates

Updated: March 22, 2017

Financial commentators parse every word the Fed utters, hoping to catch a clue about the central bank's next policy decision. But who really determines the direction of rates?

What Could Follow the End of the 70-Year Rate Cycle?

Updated: February 22, 2017

Here's a chart you won't see elsewhere: Bob Prechter's analysis and observations, depicted visually in the 70-year interest rate cycle. If the symmetry holds, it suggests that the time to come could include years of crisis, Deflation, Depression and possible World War.

How Bond Investors Were Fooled Twice

Updated: January 9, 2017

Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.

We're in a New Climate of Rising Interest Rates Around the World

Updated: December 20, 2016

In an interview recorded on December 19, our Global Opportunities Expert Chris Carolan explains which way bond markets around the world have been moving -- and which markets you should keep your eye on.

We're in a New Climate of Rising Interest Rates Around the World

Updated: December 20, 2016

In an interview recorded on December 19, our Global Opportunities Expert Chris Carolan explains which way bond markets around the world have been moving -- and which markets you should keep your eye on.

EURUSD at 14-Year Lows: Don’t Blame the Fed

Updated: December 19, 2016

Last week the euro fell hard. The reason was plain to everyone: the Fed's decision to hike interest rates. But can you imagine another post-rate-hike argument -- this one, against the dollar? It might go something like this...

Look Who's Leading the Way on Interest Rates (It's NOT the Fed)

Updated: December 16, 2016

The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But it's a myth that the U.S. central bank determines the direction of rates. These two charts are revealing.

Worst Plunge in 26 Years: This Bear is GLOBAL

Updated: December 13, 2016

During November 2016, this global index fell four percent. For investment grade debt, that's all but unheard of -- the deepest in twenty-six years (the history of the index).

Violent Bond Selloff: An Eye-Opening Perspective

Updated: December 2, 2016

In the face of historic optimism, which attended the July high in 30-year Treasury bonds, our June Elliott Wave Theorist said, "Bonds are on their last leg." In November, global bond investors lost $1.7 trillion. Sentiment has shifted to deep pessimism toward bonds but keep an eye on the wave count.

Stock Market Highs & the Election Buried This HUGE Story

Updated: November 15, 2016

This massive move happened to the granddaddy of "safe," "stable securities." The bond market hasn't seen anything like it in decades. Yet the upheaval simply hasn't gotten the coverage you'd expect...

Did U.S. Treasury Bonds Just Get Stumped by Trump?

Updated: November 9, 2016

On November 9, U.S. bond investors realized there's something worse than the uncertainty leading up to the 2016 presidential election; namely, the uncertainty following it! Is there a way to gain insight into the market's trend? Absolutely.

Debt Man’s Curve: This Is Where the Money Goes When Asset Values Fall

Updated: November 1, 2016

Yes the presidential election is crazy -- but no more crazy or unprecedented than the market behavior regarding Sovereign Debt...

Check Out this Explosive Setup in U.S. Treasury Bonds

Updated: October 28, 2016

The selloff in global bonds has been blamed on speculation that central banks will raise rates. Some observers point to economic data. Yet, we saw the handwriting on the wall four months ago. See how a combination of Elliott waves and sentiment measures can be highly useful to investors.

See What Treasury Bonds Did AFTER "Five Up" Had Finished

Updated: October 18, 2016

See it for yourself: A major reversal in Treasury Bonds, as forecast. Prices then went lower in the 3-plus months since. And, the pattern now is as clear as it was then...

These 2 Debt Instruments Pose Peril to Millions of Investors

Updated: October 12, 2016

In a throwback to the last credit mania, bond buyers are once again embracing high risk in their search for yield. Beware of these two debt instruments.

Are You Ready to "Lose Money SAFELY"?

Updated: September 23, 2016

Today, there are over 10 trillion dollars' worth of so-called negative yield bonds in the world. These bonds don't pay you a dime; no -- you, the buyer, pay the issuer. In other words, with a negative yield bond, you are guaranteed to lose money. Crazy? You could say that again. But, because bonds are "guaranteed investments," there is one interesting caveat...

Euro vs. Dollar: How to Know the Trend Before the News

Updated: September 20, 2016

Much like a cardiogram can show a doctor how the patient's heart is doing, Elliott wave patterns on a price chart can show you which way the market's collective psychology is about to take prices -- before the news, or without any news, period.

The Fed Follows the Market Then. And Then. And Now.

Updated: September 20, 2016

Most economists and most of Wall Street and most of the financial media believe that central banks set interest rates. Problem is, that notion is incorrect. And all the relevant evidence shows that it's incorrect...

Why the Fed's Rate Decisions Are Irrelevant

Updated: September 19, 2016

Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.

Bond Traders Chase Rally to the Bitter End

Updated: September 13, 2016

About three months ago, hedge fund managers were the most bullish on bonds they've been in 10 years. Yet, our July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast warned a "trend reversal is nigh." Just four trading days later, on July 8, bond futures made their closing high. Take a look at these two charts.

EURUSD Falls Despite Draghi "Boost": Here's Why

Updated: September 12, 2016

On September 8, ECB President Mario Draghi decided not to extend the Continent’s QE program and to keep interest rates pat. Right away, the euro rallied to a two-week high... only to embark on a powerful sell-off shortly after. The reason why might surprise you.

U.S. Public Pensions: Funding Gap Widens Dramatically

Updated: July 27, 2016

U.S. public pension fund returns have been hurt by a long stretch of low interest rates. Today, the funding gap stands at an astounding $3.4 trillion. Our research and others' suggests the bankruptcies of Detroit and San Bernardino may be only previews of what's to come for at least five other major cities on the brink of insolvency.

Every Financial Crash Has Had This Setup

Updated: July 22, 2016

Every financial crash has been preceded by the same setup: an unsustainable build-up of credit. Rising rates will mean corporations will have a difficult time servicing their debt. An inevitable day of reckoning will follow. This chart serves as a warning.

Ask Puerto Ricans Why Government Debt Matters

Updated: June 30, 2016

Many people view government debt as a problem that is far removed from their daily lives. When debt becomes overwhelming, the lives of citizens are directly affected in many critical ways. Consider Puerto Rico, which now faces another debt default.

Complacent Bond Investors in for Rude Awakening

Updated: June 23, 2016

The rally in 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has been over-believed. For example, hedge funds were recently at a record net-long position in futures and options contracts relative to open interest. Our analysis reveals prices are at a critical juncture. Take a look at these two charts.

The Fed Wages a Losing Battle Against Savers

Updated: June 16, 2016

Even with historically low interest rates, the U.S. savings rate as a percentage of disposable income has been rising. This indicates a deflationary psychology is taking hold, while the Fed grapples with weak inflation long after the end of the Great Recession. Prepare now for what's next.

Commodity Investors: It's Time to Look Beyond the Fed

Updated: June 9, 2016

Since plummeting to the abyss of a 13-year low in January, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rocketed 21% to enter official "bull market" territory on June 6. Some say the Fed's ongoing commitment to ultra-low interest rates is feeding the sector's fire. But there's a whole lot more to this new "bull" run than meets the eye.

Municipal Bonds: What is the Next Shoe to Drop?

Updated: June 2, 2016

Many investors continue to pour money into municipal bond funds even after Puerto Rico's municipal bond default. We believe debt-market complacency will soon be met with regret. Cities and states face severe financial struggles even as the stock market remains elevated. Imagine what the next downturn will bring.

Japan: Down the Rabbit Hole of Negative Rates

Updated: April 20, 2016

The results are in: Two- plus months of negative interest rates has had no positive impact on Japan's economy. "It's like being Alice in Wonderland," observes one strategist. But, in our opinion, there's nothing "curiouser" about the futility of free money to revive Japan's credit markets.

Are These High-Yield Hand Grenades Set to Implode?

Updated: March 28, 2016

Bloomberg describes a contingent convertible bond as a "high-yield investment with a hand grenade attached." Learn why, and also take a look at a chart of dollar-denominated financial bonds that shows a five-waves up pattern.

Learn Why 2016 Should Be an "Exciting" Year for Japan

Updated: February 27, 2016

The editor of our monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, tells you why he thinks 2016 will be an exciting year for Japanese and global investors willing to dip a toe into that market.

Can the Fed Drop Interest Rates Below 0%?

Updated: February 9, 2016

For the financial markets, the biggest event of the week starts tomorrow: On Wednesday and Thursday (Feb. 10-11) Fed chair Janet Yellen will appear before Congress to deliver her semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.

Bond Traders Telegraph a Message About 30-Year Treasuries

Updated: February 8, 2016

Financial markets have a way of turning just when the majority of investors are convinced that the established trend will continue. But make sure a market's chart pattern also supports a turn. This market appears ripe with opportunity.

Japan: Negative Rates Redux

Updated: January 29, 2016

On January 29, the Bank of Japan slashed interest rates into negative territory in hopes of fending off further economic weakness. History shows, however, the "free money" policy is futile against the "immutable" forces of finance.

Japan: Negative Rates Redux

Updated: January 29, 2016

On January 29, the Bank of Japan slashed interest rates into negative territory in hopes of fending off further economic weakness. History shows, however, the "free money" policy is futile against the "immutable" forces of finance.

Gold: A Perspective on the Extreme Pessimism

Updated: December 21, 2015

Many speculators believe that the price of gold is headed down. See a chart that shows what happened with gold during other times when sentiment was extremely negative. Another chart addresses the widespread belief that rising interest rates are bearish for gold.

The Euro vs. the Fed: What We Think Really Happened

Updated: December 18, 2015

Elliott waves allow you to see before the news which way the collective psychology of market participants is leaning. If traders feel bullish… 

Debt Troubles Expand: Distressed Bond Issuers Traded Jumps 110%

Updated: December 17, 2015

The debt loads of companies and governments should be easy to service given the exceptionally low interest rates. But did you know that global bond default rates have hit their highest level since 2009? Learn why the next credit crunch could be worse than 2007-2009.

Fed Day: How the Nikkei Fell... and Rose to the [Same] Occasion

Updated: December 16, 2015

On December 16, the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Yet -- even though the rate hike was a foregone conclusion, the Nikkei's reaction to said hike was apparently all over the map.

Big Risk in the US Bond Market

Updated: November 9, 2015

Bond prices have been trending lower (yields rising), and investors appear vulnerable to even greater volatility. Learn why selling pressure could accelerate.

Debt Man's Curve: Where Money Goes When Asset Values Fall

Updated: November 3, 2015

chart of the day | This chart shows sovereign debt along a yield curve, which is to say, the rates of interest governments pay to borrow money for 10 years from investors. It's sort of a snapshot of global Treasury Note yields.

Do Interest Rates follow the Federal Reserve, Or, Do Interest Rates Lead & the Fed follows?

Updated: October 28, 2015

What comes first? See the evidence on these three charts for yourself in Episode 4 of the Elliott Wave Pillars Series.

Time to Question U.S. Treasuries as a "Safe-Haven"?

Updated: October 9, 2015

China is dumping U.S. Treasuries. So is Russia and Brazil. Are interest rates set to soar? Learn why now may be the time to question the safe-haven status of U.S. government bonds.

Look What's Beating Stocks and Bonds So Far in 2015

Updated: September 30, 2015

Conservative investors have been punished with exceptionally low interest rates. But at least they haven't lost money. Learn about a good way to defend your portfolio against rising rates.

Does the Federal Reserve Drive the Stock Market Trend?

Updated: February 25, 2015

Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.

Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Conclusion)

Updated: November 26, 2014

Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, peace, terrorism, inflation, monetary policy -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market. Here's the conclusion of our 10-part series.

Do Interest Rates REALLY Drive the Stock Market?

Updated: September 8, 2014

Most investors believe that higher interest rates are bearish. These four charts show you the truth.

French Election: Socialism, Bull & Bear Markets -- and Social Mood

Updated:

A look at sentiment and social mood across Europe as French voters head to the polls on Sunday to elect France's new president. Plus, learn why looking at the U.S. dollar, interest rates and politics are the wrong tools when trying to forecast the price action in gold. And this Canadian city this size is an ideal candidate to preview real estate trends in Canada and in the United States.

Global Sentiment and the US Election

Updated:

Our first segment gives you a sneak peek of what analysts at Elliott Wave International have been watching in U.S. and global stocks, forex, metals, interest rates, energy and social mood. Next we take a look at legalization of recreational marijuana and answer the important question, why now? Lastly, we take a deeper look at Obamacare and reveal the real reason it's coming unglued.

How to Make National News by Doing Nothing

Updated:

More than 80 percent of economists predicted it would happen. The Fed would raise interest rates. It would be the 'All Clear' signal for the economy. But... it didn't happen. The entire economics profession was caught off guard. Listen to the 'follow up story' you won't get anyplace else.

If Cash Is King, Is Government An Assassin?

Updated:

Two stories this week reveal huge possible abuses of government power. Both stories were vastly underreported in the media -- and both also sound too far-fetched to be true... but they are.

Why Homeownership Is at 50 Year Lows

Updated:

If the U.S. housing market has “recovered,” then why has homeownership just fallen to its lowest level in 50 years -- after years of record low interest rates? Hint: “Markets flooded with credit often morph from an economic market to a financial one.” The psychology of consumption, investment and excess credit have collided, and Pop Trends, Price Culture considers the outcome.

U.S. Treasuries, Classic Prechter & Real Estate

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China is dumping U.S. Treasuries. So is Russia and Brazil. Are interest rates set to soar? Learn why now may be the time to question the safe-haven status of U.S. government bonds. EWI correspondent Bob Stokes reports. The following is a timeless clip from Robert Prechter's presentation as the annual Social Mood Conference. Take a listen as Bob explores price action in crude oil to deliver an important investment lesson for all of us. Today's last feature comes to us again from correspondent Bob Stokes. Homeowners were using their homes as ATMs around the time of the 2006 peak in housing prices. Today, many people are again borrowing against their homes. A home is no longer just "a man's castle. Learn why the housing market is prone to "boom and bust."

Origins of Elliott Wave, Market Top and Interest Rates

Updated:

Our first feature today is an interview with Pete Kendall. Pete reveals if investors should commit the recent stock market highs to memory. Today's next feature is an interview, recorded at a recent MoneyShow, with Steve Hochberg where discusses the origins of Elliott Wave Principle. Today's last report comes from correspondent Bob Stokes. Bob explains that conservative investors have been punished with exceptionally low interest rates. But at least they haven't lost money. Stay tuned to learn about a good way to defend your portfolio against rising rates.

Fiat Money, Buybacks, Gold

Updated:

In today's first clip, taken from Robert Prechter's interview with The Mind of Money, he and host Douglass Lodmell discuss "real" money vs the FIAT money system, and what is backing your dollars under our current system. The sentiment surrounding company stock buybacks goes from cheers to jeers. Also, a splintering is taking place in M&A deals. Are these signs of a historic trend shift in stocks? Correspondent Bob Stokes reports. Speculators tend to be on the wrong side of the trend, especially at major turns. Bob stokes again takes a look at what happened with gold during other times when sentiment was extremely negative. He also addresses the widespread belief that rising interest rates are bearish for gold.
80 Results