Updated: February 9, 2018Watch as Jordan Kotick and Matt Lampert bust the myth that better-than-expected wage growth sent the stock market reeling AND the myth that rising rates are in control of the stock market's trend. Plus they reveal what's really behind the stock market's moves.
Updated: January 10, 2018Today's polarized politics may seem out of sync with the mood behind the soaring stock market. But as this socionomics preview video reveals, history offers a precedent to help us understand the present and a guide for what's likely to come.
Updated: December 7, 2017A lot, as shown in this brief chapter from the new book, Socionomic Studies of Society and Culture.
Updated: November 21, 2017Discover how you can understand--and sometimes even anticipate--rends in pop culture and politics using the latest entries in the socionomics book series. Plus, learn what's new for socionomics members in this monthly preview video.
Updated: November 20, 2017The positive social mood that drives a bull market in stocks also drives art market prices. Just recently, this painting sold for a record-shattering $450 million. Learn how other record-high prices in the art world coincided with turns in the DJIA.
Updated: November 14, 2017In the 1990s, Europe came together and formed an economic and monetary union. Now, more and more countries and regions demand autonomy or even independence. Why the change? Alan Hall gives you the socionomic answer in this interview.
Updated: October 27, 2017Social mood fluctuates between extremes of optimism and pessimism. At least two developments suggest that a major trend change is afoot. Get the details.
Updated: October 19, 2017Discover what socionomics can tell us about the internet's evolving immune system -- and when cyber and biological threats are likely to intensify -- in this conversation with Alan Hall.
Updated: October 18, 2017Socionomic Studies of Society and Culture unveils how you can understand -- sometimes even anticipate -- trends in culture from fast cars to superstars, from sex to the cineplex.
Updated: October 18, 2017Catalonia declares and then suspends its independence from Spain. Agence France-Presse reports seven other European regions are "demanding more autonomy or even independence." How did Europe get here? And what's next? As this excerpt from the just-published book Socionomic Causality in Politics shows, just ask the stock market.
Updated: October 13, 2017Robert Prechter's new book -- Socionomic Causality in Politics -- is already appearing in a few of Amazon's topical best-seller lists. The preview we offer in this video shows just how RELEVANT the book is to this moment in time.
Updated: October 4, 2017Extreme polarization: Is there a way to discover order in the chaos? See our answer (literally) for yourself.
Updated: October 4, 2017Investors and Major League batters have been swinging for the fences this year. U.S. stocks and MLB homers are at record highs. As our newly published research shows, stocks and homers have trended together for nearly 150 years. See the chart and learn what else is new for Socionomics Members in the monthly preview video.
Updated: October 3, 2017The hits just keep on coming! Major League Baseball's record-breaking home run season has become a record-breaking home run postseason. SI's Alan Hall talks about how social mood impels batters to swing for the fences.
Updated: September 28, 2017Think an expanding trade deficit is bearish for stocks? What about falling earnings? Watch as Matt Lampert shows you how to bust these market myths using real-world examples from Robert Prechter's Socionomic Theory of Finance.
Updated: September 19, 2017Wouldn't it be nice to forecast an election without polling a single person? Here's how to do it...
Updated: September 1, 2017Economics 101 says a reduction in supply causes prices to rise. So why did oil prices fall after Hurricane Harvey ravaged the Gulf, shut down ten oil refineries and stopped between 380-780 million barrels of oil per day from being produced? Social mood has the answer.
Updated: August 29, 2017Hedge fund managers and investors are getting goosebumps over the U.S. and North Korea: What does the conflict mean for the stock market? Problem is, North Korea's behavior does not help anticipate trends in the stock market. Yet, as this Chart of the Day video reveals, you can use trends in the stock market to anticipate North Korea's actions.
Updated: August 28, 2017President Trump. Love him or hate him, if you watch the news you have to deal with him. But for how long? Discover the president's chances to survive impeachment in this Chart of the Day video.
Updated: August 25, 2017www.thehill.com The Dow suffered its second-biggest down day of the year last week. Did the shake-up in the Trump administration have anything to do with it? A socionomist dispels the notion that news moves markets in this op-ed in The Hill.
Updated: August 18, 2017Watch Matt Lampert, Director of Research at the Socionomics Institute, show how you can use Elliott waves to act more confidently in other areas of your life, not just in the markets.
Updated: July 7, 2017Learn how Brazil's zika epidemic demonstrates socionomic causality in this excerpt from the July issue of The Socionomist.
Updated: June 30, 2017History suggests that social mood will influence the outcome of this chapter in American history.
Updated: June 23, 2017The Socionomic Theory of Finance draws a crucial distinction between finance and economics and ties both fields to human social behavior. In time, STF will transform the thinking of every individual in the world of finance. Read Chapter One "The Myth Of Shocks" -- free.
Updated: June 13, 2017Matt Lampert, director of research at the Socionomics Institute, sheds some light on the relationship between terror attacks and the markets and tells you what to watch out for in the future, all in this 3-minute interview.
Updated: April 28, 2017Concerned about N Korea? Who isn't, right? It is possible to understand the engine behind its seemingly crazy maneuverings. Watch part one of Matt Lampert and Chuck Thompson's three-part conversation.
Updated: April 21, 2017Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.net conducted a thoughtful interview with Bob Prechter recently. We thought you'd like to see it.
Updated: April 19, 2017Brian Whitmer tells you what he's watching as France is headed into its historic election. Brian explains how mixed social mood translates into the tight race at the polls.
Updated: April 12, 2017Socionomics Institute Senior Analyst Chuck Thompson talks about the history of North Korean aggression and nuclear capabilities and the country's current belligerent posturing.
Updated: March 16, 2017Alexandra Lienhard interviews Matt Lampert on the results of the Dutch election and the future of politics in Europe.
Updated: March 2, 2017Some presidential scandals change history, others are minor and do little damage. In this ETV interview, Robert Folsom discusses social mood as it relates to this question: "How much political damage does a scandal do to the president?"
Updated: February 17, 2017Senior Editor Robert Folsom explains why looking at social mood can offer clarity to one of America's oldest ongoing political controversies.
Updated: February 7, 2017News flash: The 2016 U.S. trade deficit was the largest since 2012, fueling President Trump’s fire to narrow the nation’s gap and bolster the economy. But this research shows historical evidence that suggests this approach could seriously backfire.
Updated: January 25, 2017"World-changing books about finance aren’t built in a day." The Socionomic Theory of Finance required 13 years to complete. It has a lot to say.
Updated: January 18, 2017What does "globalization" even mean? Is it something you can measure? Yes, you can. In fact, standard measures of globalization show that in the past 150 years, the globalization trend may be history's largest manifestation of positive social mood.
Updated: January 12, 2017Recently, China has been doing something that's caught the attention of the U.S. intelligence services. In the South China Sea, in the Spratly Islands chain, China has been developing airfields, ports, and other facilities across the face of many of its man-made islands. Is there trouble brewing in one of the world's most contested regions?
Updated: December 19, 2016In his new book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance, Robert Prechter says socionomists have observed correlations between stock market trends and more than 50 social behaviors. Social mood's broad influence appears in everything from clothing styles to election outcomes to nuclear testing to epidemic disease, and more. It even affects how we speak.
Updated: December 16, 2016Negative social mood leads people to forsake the political center and gravitate toward extremes -- a trend that is currently under way in Europe. The Socionomics Institute's Chuck Thompson shows negative mood at work in the politics of two of Europe's most populous countries: Italy and France.
Updated: November 22, 2016The Socionomics Institute's Matt Lampert and Alan Hall discuss the recent Cold War rhetoric that surrounded the U.S. presidential election. Learn what it -- and the Elliott wave position of Russia's stock market -- say about the likelihood of more Russian aggression.
Updated: November 14, 2016Socionomist Alan Hall saw the de-globalization trend coming -- before the New York Times began to report on the stagnation of globalization in more recent news. Read more on Alan Hall's 500-year view of globalization, and how it's impacting trade today.
Updated: November 11, 2016The marijuana legalization movement scored big wins on election night. Voters in California, Massachusetts, Nevada and Maine approved recreational marijuana use, and several other states legalized medical marijuana use. The Socionomics Institute's Alyssa Hayden sat down with Matt Lampert and Alan Hall to talk about what's driving the trend towards legalization.
Updated: October 27, 2016When it comes to cannabis legalization, lots of people assume that they've seen & heard all there is to see & hear. But -- hang with us for the next four minutes, and maybe we can offer a different perspective...
Updated: October 21, 2016Source: Socionomics.net Socionomics Institute Director Matt Lampert has valuable and timely insights into social mood's role in presidential elections. In this clip, Matt shows you what's driving the political extremes in this year's election.
Updated: October 4, 2016Alan Hall, Senior Analyst for The Socionomist, explains that after nine years of negative mood, Russia looks a lot more threatening than it once did.
Updated: September 30, 2016Source: Socionomics.net Chuck Thompson, Senior Analyst for The Socionomist, explains that negative social mood is impelling voters to look beyond the two-party system for answers.
Updated: September 30, 2016Chuck Thompson, Senior Analyst for The Socionomist, explains that negative social mood is impelling voters to look beyond the two-party system for answers.
Updated: September 2, 2016Alan Hall, senior analyst at the Socionomics Institute, explains how 16 years of negative social mood is driving globalization's unpopularity. Learn more in this new interview.
Updated: September 2, 2016Source: Socionomics.net In this interview, Alan Hall, senior analyst at the Socionomics Institute, explains how 16 years of negative social mood is driving globalization's unpopularity.
Updated: August 18, 2016The Institute's Alan Hall looks in depth at what's dividing people on both sides of the Atlantic. Chart and short excerpt free; no sign-in required.
Updated: August 4, 2016Alan Hall, Senior Analyst at the Socionomics Institute, talks about the recent outbreak of the Zika virus. Alan explains that negative social mood created social conditions in which the Zika virus was able to spread. (You can watch the interview or read the transcript.)
Updated: August 3, 2016If the stock market does anticipate risks to public health, it is no surprise that the explosive outbreak of the Zika virus has been centered in Brazil.
Updated: July 28, 2016Will the Drug Enforcement Agency remove marijuana from the same drug classification as heroin and LSD? Socionomics Institute Director Matt Lampert weighs in. Watch this interview or read transcript now.
Updated: July 28, 2016Will the Drug Enforcement Agency remove marijuana from the same drug classification as heroin and LSD? Socionomics Institute Director Matt Lampert weighs in.
Updated: July 28, 2016Source: Socionomics.netWill the Drug Enforcement Agency remove marijuana from the same drug classification as heroin and LSD? Socionomics Institute Director Matt Lampert weighs in.
Updated: July 22, 2016Brian Whitmer talks about the negative sentiment in the European Union following the historic Brexit vote and outlines what to watch for next.
Updated: July 11, 2016Political fragmentation is becoming the new normal on both sides of the pond. Where's the trend headed? Watch Part Two of this interview with socionomist Alan Hall to learn more.
Updated: July 7, 2016Check out the political landscape. Why is PC on its way out and anger and separatism on their way in? What, if anything, does this say about the markets?
Updated: June 29, 2016The June 2016 issue of The Socionomist highlights a mix of positive and negative social expressions across the U.S.
Updated: June 29, 2016The James Bond film franchise launched in 1962, and its performance over five decades provides an opportunity to gauge the effects of social mood on changing consumer preferences for heroes and villains.
Updated: June 1, 2016Socionomics Institute Senior Researcher Alan Hall presented his research connecting declines in stock market indexes to infectious disease outbreaks at the University of Warwick's Mood Conference on May 6.
Updated: June 1, 2016Source: Socionomics.net Socionomics Institute Senior Researcher Alan Hall presented his research connecting declines in stock market indexes to infectious disease outbreaks at the University of Warwick's Mood Conference on May 6.
Updated: May 23, 2016Socionomics Institute Director Matt Lampert recently presented his elections research at the University of Warwick. Learn why stock market performance is a significant predictor of how incumbents fare in their re-election bids.
Updated: April 13, 2016Most people believe that social events impact our mood. They think that war makes us fearful and angry, or that a rising stock market makes us increasingly optimistic. Socionomics, on the other hand, turns conventional wisdom about social mood and social behavior completely on its head
Updated: April 8, 2016Alan Hall explains that choosing a leader is not an objective, rational cerebral process. Rather, it is an instinctive, non-rational attempt to feel emotionally safe.
Updated: April 8, 2016The trend -- in any market, fad, fashion, or social phenomenon -- is most likely to reverse course exactly when it seems like it's "here to stay." Learn how socionomics alerts you to the opportunities that trend reversals present.
Updated: April 7, 2016In this interview, Peter discusses the uniqueness of the Wave Principle, explains why psychology repeats itself over time and shares some thoughts on one of his favorite cultural trends to study.
Updated: March 12, 2016University of Delaware professor and 2016 Social Mood Conference speaker Nerissa Brown explains how her research on herding overlaps with the study of social mood.
Updated: March 4, 2016Socionomist Matt Lampert sat down with ElliottWaveTV's Alexandra Lienhard to talk about how he encountered socionomics and how the field has grown over the years.
Updated: March 4, 2016Socionomics Institute Director Matt Lampert explains how he first encountered socionomics and how the field has grown over the years.
Updated: March 2, 2016Socionomics is a science of financial and social forecasting that studies the phenomenon we call "social mood," and how social mood motivates social actions. Learn about Socionomist Alan Hall's journey to studying social mood and how it shapes negative -- and positive -- events.
Updated: March 2, 2016You may have heard different reasons why Stalin and Hitler came to power. Socionomics gives you a new perspective -- listen.
Updated: February 19, 2016Alan Hall, Senior Research at the Socionomics Institute, presented to the National Defense University during a two-day conference. Alan's research links negative social mood with stock markets, public health, and epidemics. Learn more about the danger for global disease outbreaks in this interview.
Updated: February 2, 2016In this 4-minute video clip, from Robert Prechter's brand-new video presentation, Prechter offers a whole new perspective on financial causality -- a perspective that allows you to anticipate, understand and act on developing financial trends that nearly all other investors and social forecasters fail to see coming.
Updated: February 1, 2016How could anyone have foreseen 10-15 years ago that marijuana would become the fuel for a legitimate and legal cannabis capitalism movement in the United States? Answer: Socionomics
Updated: February 1, 2016On June 21, 2005, CBS aired a three-hour special from the American Film Institute, dedicated to the 100 most memorable movie quotations in American cinema. Robert Prechter says most of those quotes were crafted in periods when stocks were in a bear market.
Updated: January 22, 2016Does social action motivate social mood, or vice versa? Robert Prechter’s socionomic theory -- that social mood drives social events, not the other way around -- stands at the center of what has become one of the most explosive and eye-catching fields of study in the social sciences. In this interview, the Socionomics Institute’s senior researcher Chuck Thompson explains socionomic theory and social mood’s impact on our lives.
Updated: January 22, 2016Dr. Elam spoke with us about how he helps people understand and appreciate socionomics.
Updated: November 6, 2015In a presentation on October 27, 2015, Socionomics Institute Director Matt Lampert updated the state of the marijuana legalization movement in the United States and considered where it may be headed next.
Updated: October 29, 2015Are financial markets patterned? Episode one of the Elliott Wave Pillars Series shows you a theory that proves they are.
Updated: September 22, 2015Our research affiliate, The Socionomics Institute, has dedicated quite a bit of research efforts to the marijuana legalization movement. Watch as researcher Matt Lampert answers a few questions about the state of legalization in the US and where it may be headed next.
Updated: September 8, 2015Socionomist Alan Hall sat down with our Alexandra Lienhard to answer a few questions about why more and more Americans are breaking ties with religion.
Updated: August 11, 2015Governments tax it; schools ban it. Across the US, efforts to remove sugary drinks have de-fizzed sugar-sweetened beverages sales.
Updated: August 6, 2015A positive social mood is driving expressions of inclusion in many aspects of society, including the racial, cultural and political.
Updated: July 1, 2015Socionomics Institute Director Matt Lampert joined Bert Martinez from Money for Lunch Online Radio on October 5, 2015, to discuss the connection between mood and marijuana and where he thinks the marijuana legalization movement is headed next.
Updated: June 10, 2015Watch this video of Robert Prechter explaining social mood from an outside observer's point of view.
Updated: June 8, 2015The history of transgender expressions in popular culture conforms nicely with social mood ...
Updated: June 8, 2015This documentary uses pop songs, news footage and cultural images to explore how social mood drives trends in movies, music, fashion, economics, politics, the media and even the stock market.
Updated: June 2, 2015Media stories in the past week have highlighted the numerous failures in recent years in biolabs around the United States ...
Updated: May 27, 2015If you look closely, you can see patterns in social mood that help you predict social behaviors.
Updated: May 19, 2015"The creepiest ending to a Game of Thrones episode ever."
Updated: May 15, 2015Pablo Picasso's Women of Algiers sold for 160 million dollars, crushing the world record.
Updated: July 23, 2013Robert Prechter discusses the socionomic insight and explains how he developed the theory in this engaging interview.
Updated:Socionomics Institute Director Matt Lampert has valuable and timely insights into social mood's role in presidential elections. In this clip taken from his Oct. 14 presentation Talking Politics: Mood, Market, and Decision 2016, Matt shows you what's driving the political extremes in this year's election, record number party polarization, and the decline of political correctness.
Updated:"I've never seen that before" should be the exception to how we respond to the daily news cycle ... but these days, it seems more like the rule. And I suspect that for a lot of people, this kind of "new normal" may soon seem so abnormal that they become numb, and/or simply tune out. Yet there's a better choice than "numb and/or tune out." Namely, to comprehend. That's the insight social mood allows.
Updated:A look at sentiment and social mood across Europe as French voters head to the polls on Sunday to elect France's new president. Plus, learn why looking at the U.S. dollar, interest rates and politics are the wrong tools when trying to forecast the price action in gold. And this Canadian city this size is an ideal candidate to preview real estate trends in Canada and in the United States.
Updated:If you're a regular listener, you know the range of mood-related topics we've covered: Everything from movies to music to baseball to TV to war, and politics and urban planning and marijuana and vigilantes and presidents and comedy ... and economics & finance. We'll keep covering those topics, and more. Robert Folsom explains why monthly episodes of Pop Trends, Price Culture will now join the full suite of social mood research.
Updated:For almost five decades, the so-called "Drug War" in the United States has done what war always does: Compel payments best quantified by blood and treasure. Yet that drug war is not confined within U.S. borders. It has involved mind-boggling greater payments of blood and treasure from the country along the U.S. southern border. And social mood has played an important, if little-understood role.
Updated:Immigration policy has been an epic contradiction all thru U.S. history. America is "a nation of immigrants," yet major political trends in American frequently include outbursts of anti-immigration sentiment. Pop Trends, Price Culture offers a way to un-puzzle this issue -- including recent-cases-in-point -- via the clarity that comes with understanding social mood.
Updated:It's getting to harder and harder to find useful comparisons: Is this like 1968? ... or 1937? ... or 1984? Is he Reagan or Nixon or Andrew Jackson or Herbert Hoover? It may feel like we're orbiting around an unnamed planet, but rest assured: The law of gravity has not been revoked. Social mood is at work in the politics of the moment -- and beyond. Listen on to hear what we see.
Updated:Learn how looking at social mood can offer clarity to one of America's oldest ongoing political controversies, plus why Elliott Wave International believes the "Trump Bump" was in the cards LONG before Trump, and lastly, the BIG story everyone missed in 2016 and what it means for you now.
Updated:Today's episode of Elliott Wave Weekly takes a deeper look at the social mood landscape across Europe and Asia.
Updated:It had been a bear market for a lot of years. The headlines were a parade of scary bad news. People were so polarized that fan groups began to hate on each another's music -- hostility so strong that it became its own trend. Then, an episode of this negative mood literally exploded its way into America's National Pastime: Namely, in the outfield between games of a double header.
Updated:"Smoke" is the metaphor or image people commonly use to warn that the heat from a small combustion may soon become a much larger blaze. And that's the word that came to my mind in listening to Brian Whitmer's discussion of populist politics in Europe. The word smoke does of course still carry an important literal meaning -- as in, the stuff that does your lungs no good. This week, the literal and metaphorical smoke we spotted in the news adds up to mood-driven events. Listen on to hear what we see.
Updated:Global uncertainty. Global trade. And, presidential scandals. These are the news topics we consider this week, and there's no need to explain just how relevant they are right now. Even so: what we can explain is how these issues reflect the influence of social mood. Listen on and hear for yourself.
Updated:More education. More information. More entertainment. More quality goods and services to consume… All this we have, or have available to us. When we live in a world with increasing opportunities to improve our own quality of life, then why do political outcomes world-wide seem to express so much dissatisfaction, grievance and anger? That's a big question, and I don't pretend to have simple & fast answers. But at least one can ask. And social mood needs to be part of the discussion that follows.
Updated:What does positive social mood actually do? For starters, if you're in a population that has enjoyed an extended period of positive mood, outbreaks of disease are less likely to happen. If mood is positive and you personally hold a relatively higher place in the social hierarchy, odds are even higher that you'll avoid an outbreak of disease. Alas, of course, if those circumstances apply to you in reverse … well, be especially mindful to stay current with your flu shot (etc). Let's get started.
Updated:Political language is front & center today, more so than at any time in decades. News or fake news, plus liars, lies, damned lies and statistics, have blurred the line between fact, opinion, and shameless BS. This episode excerpts an essay that could not be more relevant. It's from a time when social mood was recognizably similar to our own: Polarization ran deep, all disagreements were politicized, fear of "The Other" ran rampant. People felt threatened by certain ideologies. Listen for yourself to just how familiar it sounds...
Updated:Can apologies fall "out of fashion"? Yes indeed, especially grand-scale apologies made for grand-scale injustices done in the past. Negative vs. positive social mood drives the desire to express regret, or not. Listen on to hear what we see.
Updated:Just before he was re-elected to his third term as president, Franklin D. Roosevelt assured the public that America would not go to war. But go to war it did -- complete with harsh anti-immigration laws, and tens of thousands of naturalized citizens in "relocation camps" No, this isn't a re-run of our previous episode. Different president, different war -- but social mood was very much alike.
Updated:In our first ever 3-microphone episode, Alan Hall, Senior Analyst for The Socionomist, joins Robert Folsom and T.R. for an open discussion of social mood, politics, and the "peaceful" transfer of power in Washington D.C.
Updated:The more interesting something seems, the more likely you are to engage with it emotionally. Interest and emotion are hard to keep separate -- the closer you look, the more your rational mind can begin to give way to the whims of like and dislike. And boy, have we ever started to "live in interesting times." An understanding of social mood is not a superpower that allows emotion-free insights. Yet, it can help equip you with an analytical perspective, to help distinguish facts from fake-news fiction. Listen on and see if you agree.
Updated:The sun never sets on social mood -- and around the world, upheaval and apprehension now fill our screens and headlines, in the mix of mood and politics.
Updated:Social mood translates into the tight race at the polls in the French election. In Europe, we're seeing bond market behavior that resembles what occurred before the credit crises in 2008, 2010 and 2012. Outlook for the British pound and currency markets following the UK's call for a snap election.
Updated:Our first segment gives you a sneak peek of what analysts at Elliott Wave International have been watching in U.S. and global stocks, forex, metals, interest rates, energy and social mood. Next we take a look at legalization of recreational marijuana and answer the important question, why now? Lastly, we take a deeper look at Obamacare and reveal the real reason it's coming unglued.
Updated:Next week we'll have one less topic to talk about. Well, to be exact, we'll have moved from the "before" to the "after." Point being, yes -- we all want the election to be over. But the trend that drives what comes next (including how the public responds) depends on social mood. Let's get started.
Updated:Evidence of the profoundly polarized electorate could not be more clear: One presidential candidate won a narrow majority of the popular vote, the other presidential candidate prevailed in the Electoral College. There is a pre-condition for polarization -- namely, social mood. Please read on. There's a lot to talk about, including legal cannabis and California secession.
Updated:We start by looking at the Dutch election and the future of politics in Europe. Our European Markets Expert offered his perspective on what's next for EU stocks and politics. The Lead Developer of EWAVES artificial intelligence software talks about how EWAVES is different from other Elliott wave programs.
Updated:What was the most successful medical program in human history? Here's a hint: It began with a counterintuitive, non-linear solution. Yet, social mood at present suggests that counterintuitive thinking is short supply, in helping to solve a current, huge health crisis.
Updated:We're living thru an especially ironic moment. More people have more time to learn more information more easily than ever in history. And yet ... we're also up to our collective waists in junk science, fake news, group-think and shameless propaganda. In other words: It's never been more important to have a sharp "B.S" detector. An understanding of social mood is an important step in that direction. Listen on to hear what we see.
Updated:This past week in the news has been like 40 gallons of crazy compressed into a 20-gallon tank. It's too much to keep up with. It's like you want to slap the next person who says "I've never seen this before," except ... you keep hearing yourself say that. Consider the role of social mood, and the idea that "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."
Updated:Elections open the doors and windows for the expression of social mood -- those expressions are obviously specific to the moment, yet "elections have consequences" into the future as well. Populism, nationalism, anti-establishment sentiment and the like have been unfolding before our eyes around the world. It's really, really important to understand the trend.
Updated:Allow me to state the obvious: Nobody is ever not surprised. So: The important follow-up question is, "How often are you surprised?" A working knowledge of social mood trends really does reduce the element of "surprise" in how you read the news -- and see the world.
Updated:Sentiment gets one-sided only at certain points in the markets' Elliott wave pattern. Learn what sentiment gauges are telling you about the market trend. Yield spreads widen for Illinois, Connecticut and New Jersey. Muni bond yield spreads will make you wonder about the future. President Trump finds his administration embroiled in controversy and investigation. Learn how social mood will influence the outcome of this chapter in American history.
Updated:In recent decades, many popular models of human behavior -- in politics, urban planning, and financial markets -- have been discarded. The problem with them was...They didn't work. Those flawed models assumed a type of efficiency and rationality in collective human behavior that simply isn't there. Alas, it's easier to toss out the old flawed model than it is to replace it with a better one. But we're working on a social mood model that's really, really promising.
Updated:When Donald Trump announced he was running for president in June 2015, many traditional pundits and political commentators brushed him off. In this new interview, Robert Folsom explains how Trump rode a wave of negative social mood to the top. Next is Brian Whitmer who talks about the Puerto Rican debt crisis and explains why the country's recent default "was not a surprise" to him and others at EWI. Last we hear from Bob Stokes. Periods of low stock market volatility are usually followed by high volatility. On March 18, volatility was non-existent. Since then, volatility has jumped.
Updated:After you peel back the spectacle, a lot of news these days is hard to read. Threats and hard-to-calculate risks dwell right below the surface. Yet an understanding of social mood allows you to go deeper than 'right below the surface' -- you can actually get to the bottom of the story. And not just one story… but the trend itself, which drives so many otherwise unrelated events.
Updated:For the past 100 years, social mood has been pivotal in America’s decisions to go to war. This episode of Pop Trends, Price Culture shows just how true this is was for World War I – despite...
Updated:Just before he was re-elected, the President assured the public that America would not go to war. But go to war it did -- complete with harsh anti-immigration laws, and tens of thousands of naturalized citizens in "relocation camps." No, this isn't a re-run of our previous episode. Different president, different war -- but social mood was very much alike.
Updated:The stories we offer this week cover a wide range -- including how consumers behave, the role of technology, how markets and social actions are linked, even 'what's legal for adults' as an influence on 'the behavior of teens.' What's the thread that runs through a range of topics that wide? The thread we call social mood, of course...
Updated:Legalization: An influence for teens to smoke pot? The 'King of emotional arguments' goes up against a serious body of facts and evidence, as this episode of Pop Trends Price Culture considers whether the social mood trend will finish what it started.
Updated:The 'hat' a person chooses to wear, or wants to remove, or for that matter likes or dislikes to begin with -- reflects social mood.
Updated:Week in & week out, social mood brings focus to the fuzz of news. This week's lens-in-focus looks at darker shades of global events, your local theatre, and the potential power to measure mood in social media...
Updated:Podcast listeners will probably recall Dennis Elam from our 4th of July episode, "Hear How An Independent Mind Truly Works." Dr. Elam will join us for the 2016 Social Mood Conference in April, which is fast approaching. More on that when you listen on - plus dark real estate, David Bowie, and the role of social mood in the outcome of political protests.
Updated:"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today"? Gallup asks this question in its monthly "Social Series" poll of Americans. Throughout 2015, the most common answer by far was "Dissatisfaction with government/Congress/politicians." Mood-driven anger really can be its own trend -- a thought worth keeping in mind as you read our first item below, and during the political season ahead.
Updated:Dr. Dennis Elam is a tenured accounting professor at Texas A&M University-San Antonio. He is an expert in finance, yet Professor Elam blows up stereotypes about the accounting profession. He's incredibly well versed in popular culture: his insights go from Richard Pryor, to themes in cinema, to the "mob museum" in Las Vegas. Dr. Elam will join us as a featured speaker on April 9 in Atlanta, for the 2016 Social Mood Conference.
Updated:When you see or hear about a really big wall going up, negative social mood is probably at work. Seriously. A very tall and/or long wall is, by definition, exclusive. It's a barrier designed to keep people in or out. How do the dots connect?
Updated:This week's headlines make this episode from April 2015 a "relevant revisit": What could the Federal Reserve and comedian Bill Cosby possibly have in common? In a sentence, “Ruined reputations, thanks to negative social mood.” Yes it sounds bizarre -- but hear Robert Folsom and TR explore WHY the ugly hidden truths about heroes (and heroic institutions) can so suddenly make news. Listen for yourself.
Updated:The U.S. stock market hit its peak for 2015 in May, but has spent a lot of time since then trending lower. And it's not "news" to say that the news itself this year seemed like a flow of mostly negative headlines. We try to keep you a step ahead -- with mood-related stories that are off (or barely on) the radar. So it is this episode ...
Updated:I enjoyed meeting and speaking with friends and subscribers this past weekend, during our annual Social Mood Conference in Atlanta. It's a day dedicated to gleaning the trend in mood, as it shows itself in the never-boring flow of news and events we bring you on this each week. Please listen on and plug in.
Updated:Alastair Macdonald has a pretty cool resume: Successful business owner, stockbroker on Wall Street, and a real estate investor. Yet he was born & raised in Zimbabwe, so before his career in finance he was a professional hunter and safari guide -- including leading a National Geographic film crew on a safari on the Zambezi River. Alastair has had amazing success using socionomics to anticipate major trend changes: This episode is a preview of what he'll have to say as a speaker at our Social Mood conference this coming April 9th in Atlanta.
Updated:When and where did a national audience first read about popular culture and the stock market? This episode of Pop Trends, Price Culture answers that question, and spells out why the insight about social mood is more relevant today than ever.
Updated:"I'm sorry" -- it's the first truly hard-to-say phrase we repeat as children. We all know why apologies matter. Yet with big public apologies, what about the when? Are big apologies more frequent in certain recognizable eras? Pop Trends, Price Culture explains how social mood feeds the emotions that motivate "I'm sorry"...
Updated:Social mood drives social actions. It just does. And those actions -- or collective behaviors -- are very specific, depending on whether mood is positive or negative. And, in recent years, the mood trend has been mostly positive. That's the context to help define this week's news selection...
Updated:After the long-term stock market low in late 1974, positive social mood slowly began to build. Cultural evidence of the positive turn became visible in the success of great black comedians on stage, in film, and on television. Our friend Dr. Dennis Elam delivers part two of the story.
Updated:You know their names -- Pryor, Cosby, Eddie Murphy and more -- the great black comedians of the past 50 years. Yet you may not realize how these great comic voices were also the "audio track" for the trends and turns in social mood across the decades. Our friend Dr. Dennis Elam tells the story.
Updated:Alastair MacDonald has a pretty cool resume: Successful business owner, stockbroker on Wall Street, and a real estate investor. Yet he was born & raised in Zimbabwe, so before his career in finance he was a professional hunter and safari guide. Alastair has had amazing success using socionomics to anticipate major trend changes. Hear his story now.
Updated:Let's face it: Totalitarian governments rarely get pushback from citizens, especially in a place like North Korea. Folks there just don't get up in arms about cable company mergers and phone surveillance...
Updated:What does positive social mood actually do? For starters, it helps you hold your cushy job as Prime Minister of a country everybody knows. But -- in another country everybody also knows -- negative...
Updated:Our mix of stories this week literally reflect today's mixed social mood. The Dow Industrials stand near an all-time high. But a swirl of events -- from ultra-violent fiction on HBO, to real mayhem in Texas, to the virtually unreported stories of government power grabs...
Updated:This week we can observe social mood from three different angles, literally -- on land, on the sea, and in cyberspace. What's more, these stories -- violence in the streets, death at sea, and the resentment of prosperity -- each have a history that socionomics brings into focus...
Updated:The 100-year rise of the security state did NOT happen in subtle steps across decades. Instead, nearly all the growth came during identifiable SURGES — specific periods when the downtrend in social mood fueled the uptrend of authoritarianism. Get the story in this week’s episode of Pop Trends, Price Culture.
Updated:Social mood this week previews the wrong question about politics at home and an incendiary assessment of the Euro-trend offer two previews of the future. And in the present, Warren Buffet's beverage.
Updated:What could the Federal Reserve and comedian Bill Cosby possibly have in common? In a sentence, “Ruined reputations, thanks to negative social mood.” Yes it sounds bizarre -- but hear Robert Folsom and TR explore WHY the ugly hidden truths about heroes (and heroic institutions) can so suddenly make news. Listen for yourself.
Updated:The Internet is very good at giving digital consumers what they want -- from the stupid and salacious, to the brilliant and beautifully written. Alas, what's all-too rare is any discussion of social mood as its own topic...
Updated:"I just learned something new!" Enthusiasm goes well with those words. New knowledge can be very pleasing. But, what if the "something new" is a truth about yourself that is not pleasing? ...
Updated:High school science teachers like to say that biology helps us understand ourselves. Clearly so. But, some recent news stories about biology in the lab -- plus other news stories about biology "on the street" -- describe biology-related outcomes in ways that many people find scary, and/or downright perplexing...
Updated:First up. Robert Prechter explains that social mood is really the driver of financial markets. Next learn why our indicators suggest that now is the time to make the move to outsmart Wall Street. Last you'll hear about the effects of the housing bubble first hand.
Updated:Instant replay in sports is a great use of technology -- not only to re-watch good plays, but also to remind us how much we fail to see even while we're watching. It's no stretch to say that socionomics is a kind of instant replay for collective trends and events...
Updated:Pete Kendall tells you about the emergence of the so-called CoCo bonds, one of the hottest new derivative-backed instruments on Wall Street. Gold's price trend has baffled investors at almost every turn. Today, gold's wave pattern is clear, and Elliott-minded investors are benefiting. The Director of the Socionomics Institute discusses his journey with socionomics, the importance of social mood, and how socionomics helps you spot market reversals and trends early.
Updated:China is dumping U.S. Treasuries. So is Russia and Brazil. Are interest rates set to soar? Learn why now may be the time to question the safe-haven status of U.S. government bonds. EWI correspondent Bob Stokes reports. The following is a timeless clip from Robert Prechter's presentation as the annual Social Mood Conference. Take a listen as Bob explores price action in crude oil to deliver an important investment lesson for all of us. Today's last feature comes to us again from correspondent Bob Stokes. Homeowners were using their homes as ATMs around the time of the 2006 peak in housing prices. Today, many people are again borrowing against their homes. A home is no longer just "a man's castle. Learn why the housing market is prone to "boom and bust."
Updated:We kick off this week's episode with a clip from Robert Prechter. Bob speaks every year at the annual Social Mood Conference that's put on by our sister company the Socionomics Institute. This next clip is an excerpt from his 2014 presentation when Bob explained The Submarine Analogy and how socionomists anticipate beneath-the-surface changes in mass psychology. Many view bear markets as simply a downturn in stock prices. But as you just heard from Robert Prechter, societal changes also tend to accompany trend changes in the stock market. In this next report, Elliott Wave International correspondent Bob stokes looks at the rise of women in bear markets and explains that the gender barrier tends to dissipate during stock market downturns. As the 2016 presidential election heats up, Bob reveals whether "gender barrier" will be shattered in the months ahead. Today's last feature comes from Elliott Wave International's Global Opportunities Expert, Chris Carolan who looks at the latest price action in China's Shanghai Composite to explain how the Elliott Wave Principle helps you anticipate and prepare for market moves.
Updated:What made a sitting president go on TV to show America a big bag of crack cocaine - literally? And what made a later president drop the phrase “War On Drugs” from his vocabulary?
Updated:Social mood is trending mostly positive -- so keep an eye out not only for which stories make the news, but also how that news gets reported. Listen on to see what we see in this week's news.
Updated:If you're familiar with the science of socionomics, you're already aware that an uncanny correlation exists between social mood trends and the success or failure of politicians. Today's first feature is a clip from the 2008 documentary History's Hidden Engine which explains the relationship between the stock market and presidential elections. In this next report from Elliott Wave International correspondent Bob Stokes, he explains that the gender barrier tends to dissipate during stock market downturns. And politics is a high-profile field where women have risen to prominence during bear markets. The last feature in today's episode is a little more socionomic in nature than most episodes of Elliott Wave Weekly, but it sticks with the theme of presidential politics. A few weeks ago I sat down with the Socionomic Institute's Matt Lampert to talk about the state of the marijuana legalization movement in the US and where it might be headed next.
Updated:Social mood transformed a pair of conventional comedians -- George Carlin and Richard Pryor -- into two of history's greatest stand up comedians. Hear the story you haven't heard told until now.
Updated:Three hugely popular horror movies, and three simultaneous stock market declines. Is that just a semi-interesting coincidence... or could the timing of bear markets in stocks and the popularity of horror movies amount to a jaw-dropping history of social mood?
Updated:Today we start with a question asked during every US presidential election. Which party is better for stocks? Elliott Wave International correspondent Bob Stokes answers that question and more. The next feature is a new interview with Chris Carolan where he puts the Shanghai Composite's recent 6% decline in perspective with the overall trend. The last feature today again comes from our friends at the Socionomics Institute. Matt Lampert, the director of the institute, recently sat down to chat about socionoimcs and explain when the light bulb started to go off for him.
Updated:Matt Lampert, the director of the Socionomics Institute spoke with Dr. Jon Fassett who will bring his knowledge and enthusiasm for fractals in nature and finance to the 2016 Social Mood Conference. Correspondent Bob Stokes brings us our next feature and explains how you can get ahead of gold's rally. Last up today is an analyst spotlight on Jeffrey Kennedy. Learn how Jeff got introduced to the financial markets and ultimately the Wave Principle.
Updated:Why are so many people are playing Pokémon Go? For starters, it's lighthearted fun. Catching Pokémon is kind of like when you chased fireflies as a kid -- they're cool. You want to catch 'em, not kill 'em. And, hordes of Millennials are playing Pokémon Go out of nostalgia: They grew up on Pokémon and now it's on their single-most indispensable device -- the cell phone. Less obvious is the peer pressure -- which is a watered down way of describing social mood. Yes, I'm going there. And I can credibly say that we started "going there" with Pokémon back in 1999...
Updated:Even hard-core political junkies have labored to keep up with the 2016 election headlines. Yet in the onslaught of news, there is a huge untold story: Social mood is depopulating the two major political parties…
Updated:For the past 100 years, social mood has been pivotal in America’s decisions to go to war. This episode of Pop Trends, Price Culture shows just how true this was for World War I – despite then-president Woodrow Wilson’s promises to remain neutral.
Updated:The 2016 election cycle has been very loud and long. So it's hard to imagine that there's a big "untold story" left to tell. Yet we believe we have one. Namely, that social mood has polarized the American electorate to levels unseen in almost 80 years of survey data. The two major political parties are being depopulated, even as self-identified "independents" are becoming basically a third pole in the polarization.
Updated:During the April 2013 Social Mood Conference, we knew going in that we had exceptional roster of expert speakers. Numerous PhDs, the Chief Scientist at a hot Silicon Valley startup, a tenured professor at Cambridge. Yet Marah Boyesen -- who teaches socionomics as part of a finance course in a private high school -- was the speaker who got our attention more than any other. The true story she told is unforgettable. This week, you can see and hear it for yourself. Plus: Immigration, North Korea, and the social mania that was not fueled simply by the unsophisticated and gullible crowd.
Updated:Master political infighter. Student of human weakness. Bureaucrat supreme. Brilliant Machiavellian schemer. And, "American History's Greatest One-Man Barometer of Social Mood." Discover who this person was -- through a socionomic lens.
Updated:Driving your car is a solo activity. In truth, however, we're almost never truly alone when we drive… … Because, we have to share the road with other drivers. Sometimes lots and lots of other drivers. Meaning, road travel is a collective activity with clearly observable patterns of collective behavior. Does this mean that some periods include patterns of safer driving? The evidence says, "Absolutely." Hear the evidence for yourself -- plus all about the role social mood plays in "Globalization," as well as the current reappearance of America's oldest political controversy.
Updated:Immigration policy has been an epic contradiction all thru U.S. history. America is “a nation of immigrants,” yet major political trends in American frequently include outbursts of anti-immigration sentiment. Pop Trends, Price Culture offers a way to un-puzzle this issue – including recent-cases-in-point – via the clarity that comes with understanding social mood.