Who predicted deflation?

Robert Prechter

who predicted deflation

In a 2003 issue of his monthly market letter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, Prechter wrote the following note about who predicted deflation:

“The loneliness of the unequivocal and bearish deflationist is hard to overstate. When I traveled to New York last October, I was told by reporters that they knew of only one other serious deflationist, Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Fed's jawboning has recently caused him to modify his stance. The only other staunch deflationist I know is A. Gary Shilling, author of Deflation: How to Survive and Thrive in the Coming Wave of Deflation (McGraw-Hill, 1999), who still forecasts 'a decade of deflation.' Gary argues, however, that the deflation will be mild and beneficial, not immense and destructive. While he may turn out to be correct, he is certainly not bearish. Because of this situation, I have been unable to find a published article explaining the weaknesses in the inflationists' arguments and demonstrating that a destructive deflation is likely. If you can't find something, you have to make it yourself; thus this report.”

Of course, now that deflation is back in the news, analysts who predicted deflation – or those who say they did – are coming out of the woodwork. We are certain that none have studied past deflation or written about deflation to the extent that Robert Prechter has.

For your convenience, Prechter has also compiled his most poignant writings on deflation since his 2002 book raced to the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Amazon best-sellers lists. This 60-page Deflation Survival Guide is available now for free download. Read all of the most prescient writings about deflation – compiled from 2002 to 2008, unedited – from the analyst who predicted deflation more accurately than any other, Robert Prechter.

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