Grains: Has the Trend Changed? | Elliott Wave International

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Grains: Has the Trend Changed?
EWI's Daily Futures Junctures reveals whether the moves up in soybeans, wheat, and corn will last

By Nico Isaac
Thu, 01 Dec 2011 17:15:00 ET

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The commodity grain complex has endured more recent setbacks than the Herman Cain campaign. In September alone, Soybean prices plunged 20% in the biggest rout in three years, while the 23% fall in corn prices was the steepest since at least 1959.

But on November 21, the grain pain turned to gains when soybeans, corn, and wheat enjoyed a synchronized surge to one-week highs.

So the million dollar question is: Will the northward trend continue?

Well, in the November 30 Daily Futures Junctures, EWI's chief commodity analyst and Futures Junctures Service Editor Jeffrey Kennedy puts the recent rally to the ultimate "Are You a Lasting Uptrend?" test. He opens his analysis with an 11-plus minute video, in which he uses FOUR key trend-defining indicators to size up the price action in soybeans. They are:

1. Intraday Subdivisions: In a 240-minute chart of soybeans, Jeffrey examines the rise from the November 21 low and answers one question: Does the move fit the clean, clear, and quick "personality" traits of an impulse wave (indicative of the larger trend); or does it fit the slow, sloppy, and choppy "personality" of a corrective wave (indicative of a countertrend move)?

2. The bigger Elliott wave picture: Via the daily price chart of soybeans since February 2011, Jeffrey identifies the market's decline since October as "the very definition" of one kind of pattern.

3. Technical measures: Here, Jeffrey provides a color-coded Bar Chart of soybean prices as a 10-period simple moving average. The key is as follows:

A red bar: Downtrend. The high of the bar is below the 10-period simple moving average.
A green bar: Uptrend. The low of the bar is below the moving average.
And a grey bar: Neutral trend.

One look at this chart clearly reveals whether the rally off the November 21 low supports a new upward trajectory.

4. The Elliott pattern in various agricultural Exchange-traded Funds: In the final video segment, Jeffrey closes with three separate charts of three key grain ETF's, all of which bolster his case that soybeans, corn, and wheat will be headed in one direction for the first quarter of 2012.

Find out whether the big three grains have made a big trend change today. A risk-free Futures Junctures Service begins today >>>>

Tags: Daily Futures Junctures, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, futures trading, grain futures, Jeffrey Kennedy, soybean futures, technical indicators, wheat futures

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