Back in early September, the growing debate about high food costs reached a fever pitch as grain prices continued to leapfrog over one previous record after another. And, according to the mainstream experts, the bullish gun in grains future was cocked and locked. Here, the following news items from the time fill in the blanks (bold added):
- "World food prices still high on worrying outlook of low grain supplies and stocks. Things are going back to fundamentals. Fundamentals are tight and prices therefore are remaining high." (Reuters)
- "In spite of all the other things going on in today's world markets, here you have a situation where prices seem to be sustained." (BusinessWeek)
- "Demand is likely to continue to outstrip supply for some time keeping grain prices high." (Kansas City Star)
YET -- by the time September was over, the big three grain markets -- corn, soybeans, and wheat -- had gone from gain to pain despite the favorable "fundamentals" you've just read about.
To wit: Soybean prices plunged 20% in the biggest rout in three years, while corn prices endured their steepest decline (a 23% drop) since at least 1959.
Having advance notice of the downside potential in grains was one benefit of EWI's September 2011 Monthly Futures Junctures
"Featured Market" segment. There, Jeffery Kennedy presented a unified bearish front via these well-timed insights:
- Soybeans: "With the decline followed by a clearly corrective advance, the stage is set for the next wave down."
- Wheat: "The formation of this downtrend agrees with the Elliott wave interpretation and is also in line with the bearish case evident in the Continuous Commodity Index."
- Corn: "If this assessment is correct, then the next move of consequence in corn will be a decline."
So, the big question facing the grain complex now is whether the September sell-off is finally behind the markets.
And, in the latest Futures Junctures Service,
long-time editor and EWI's chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy brings you both the long- and short-term forecasts for corn
, and wheat
- You get the long-term analysis via EWI's Monthly Futures Junctures price charts
- The short-term forecasts are delivered to you 5 days a week via Daily Futures Junctures.
Want to see what big moves are in store for the commodity markets?
Get the best commodity opportunities from an Elliott wave expert -- every single day
Futures Junctures Editor Jeffrey Kennedy acts as your personal opportunity scout as he searches the world's leading commodity markets and serves up his best picks daily.
You get in-depth commodity analysis, daily video forecasts for up to 18 markets, plus an Elliott Wave education to help put your knowledge into action when you subscribe to the Futures Junctures Service.
A concise, daily, audio-visual information barrage. Absolutely the BEST value anywhere.