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The UK Avoids Recession. Proof Positive of Recovery?
And why taking the experts at their word may not be the safest decision.

By Nico Isaac
4/25/2013 5:00:00 PM

In the morning hours of April 25, the UK financial community was a picture of Hunger Games-like angst. Huddled masses stood around the Office for National Statistics, waiting nervously to hear whether the name -- Britain -- would be drawn to participate in a highly dreaded recession.  

Filed Under: credit crisis, europe, european markets, financial forecast, FTSE, great depression, recession, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: European Markets

Cyprus Banking Bailout: Costs Rise, Heads Roll
The officials and experts who didn't see the crisis coming were supposed to prevent it in the first place.

By Nico Isaac
4/16/2013 5:00:00 PM

The cost of the Cyprus bailout seems to get bigger every week. It has gone from 10€ to 17€ and now to 23€ billion euros. What's more, recent reports say the island nation will need a bigger bake sale to raise the necessary funds to foot the growing bill. On April 12, rumors swirled that the European Central Bank will force Cyprus to liquidate half-a-billion dollars of its gold reserves.

Filed Under: bailouts, banks, central banks, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, eurozone, financial forecast

Category: European Markets

Short-Term Euro Memory Loss
.. And long-term euro calls from EWI's European Financial Forecast

By Nico Isaac
4/1/2013 5:15:00 PM

Recently I watched "Memento," the excellent movie about a man with retrograde amnesia who tries to solve his wife's murder. The protagonist has about 30 seconds to write down new clues on scraps of paper -- or in some cases tattoo those clues onto his body -- before his short-term memory completely fails. 

Filed Under: central banks, currency, Elliott wave, euro, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone, U.S. dollar

Category: European Markets

Has the European Central Bank Defeated the Sovereign Debt Crisis Once and For All?
A three-paneled chart reveals whether the critical precondition for recovery, consumer borrowing, is underway in Europe.

By Nico Isaac
3/21/2013 5:15:00 PM

The conventional wisdom would have to agree. Every polled financial pundit from here to the Hellenic Republic insists that – while not totally out of the woods – the worst of the eurozone economic crisis is in the rearview. The universally recognized date for the Continent’s exact turning point is July 2012. That’s when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi tossed his tie over his shoulder to verbally put the naysayers in their place

Filed Under: central banks, debt crisis, euro, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone, liquidity, soverign debt crisis

Category: European Markets

European Markets: Are 'Happy Days Here Again'?
Page one of The European Financial Forecast: A chart of Euro Stoxx volatility reveals if a drop in fear means a rise in stocks.

By Nico Isaac
3/7/2013 10:15:00 AM

When the 2007-2009 financial crisis nearly unravelled the global economy, many investors hid under their virtual beds, and parked the bulk of their wealth in safe-haven products. Now it's 2013, and a recent Wall Street Journal article describes an almost emboldening epidemic affecting the world's market participants known as "fear fatigue."

Filed Under: DAX, europe, European debt crisis, european markets, financial forecast, FTSE, sentiment, VIX, volatility

Category: European Markets

A Fundamental Lesson from Italy's Recent Political Deadlock
European Financial Forecast uses Elliott wave analysis -- not election results -- to identify the near-term stock index trends on the Continent.

By Nico Isaac
2/27/2013 5:30:00 PM

On Feb. 26, Italy's much-anticipated Parliamentary Election ended in an impasse, when dark horse candidate/comedian Beppe Grillo earned enough votes to prevent the two leading parties from gaining a majority. In the immediate aftermath of the election, European stock markets took a synchronized leap south in single-day declines from 1.5% to 5%. On that day, the mainstream experts were unanimous: Italy's election outcome flat out bearish...

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CAC40, DAX, Elliott wave, euro stoxx 50, europe, european markets, eurozone, FTSE, fundamental analysis, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter, social mood

Category: European Markets

Starry-Eyed Surprise: The Economy Does Not Lead Stock Markets
This chart of four critical UK economic indicators sends a powerful message about the Continent's key stock markets.

By Nico Isaac
2/21/2013 5:30:00 PM

Conventional economic wisdom says economic indicators drive stock market trends. If the economic news of the day -- employment, manufacturing, home sales, etc. -- is positive, then "Joe Pundit" says that's why stock prices rallied. If those numbers are negative he says that's why prices fell. Case in point, the following news stories regarding the recent performance in London's FTSE 100:

Filed Under: DAX, economic indicators, Elliott wave, europe, european markets, eurozone, FTSE, fundamental analysis, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter

Category: European Markets

Is It Really Time to Buy Europe?
Before you sit down at Europe's born-again-bulls table, make sure your analysis has all of its objective legs intact

By Nico Isaac
2/6/2013 12:30:00 PM

When it comes to assessing the near- and long-term trends underway in financial markets, Elliott wave analysts adopt what I call the three-legged stool approach to forecasting. Their analysis rests on three main factors: Elliott wave structure, technical indicators, and sentiment. The first two legs are tangible: Elliott wave patterns unfold in clear and calculable formations on financial market price charts. Technical indicators are also observable on price charts as oscillators or bar patterns or candlesticks and the like. But what about sentiment -- how do you measure extremes in human emotion?

Filed Under: banks, Elliott wave, euro, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone, sentiment

Category: European Markets

European Stocks: EuroStoxx 50 Shows a Topping Picture
The recent weakness in European stocks was expected

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/30/2013 5:15:00 PM

The news reports from Europe on January 30 said that European stocks took a hit after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. GDP number for the 4th quarter of 2012. Yet Elliott wave patterns in the EuroStoxx 50, pan-European index of the continent's 50 largest stocks, are showing that the recent rally has been on its last leg for a while.

Filed Under: AEX, CAC40, DAX, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, european markets, FTSE

Category: European Markets

Is Joining the Eurozone the Path to Economic Recovery?
A chart in the latest European Financial Forecast shows whether induction into the Eurozone coincides with a new bull market

By Nico Isaac
1/28/2013 5:00:00 PM

For the economies across the pond, a common nickname for the 17-nation eurozone is "the Club."  And for the last few years, the reigning attitude regarding accession into said Club has been less gratitude and more Groucho Marx. That is, until now. In the short extent of 2013 so far, noticeable pockets have formed in the Continent's once airtight anti-euro campaign. Here, a comparison of news stories from 2011 to news storiestoday captures the dialing down of no-zone sentiment:

Filed Under: Elliott wave, euro, euro stoxx 50, europe, european markets, eurozone, financial forecast

Category: European Markets

Does Germany Have the Power to Save Europe's Economy?
A walk down memory lane reveals the last two times Europe hitched its recovery wagon to Germany's rising star.

By Nico Isaac
1/11/2013 5:30:00 PM

Without question, Germany, the world's third-largest economy, closed 2012 in a year-end tour de force. And now, folks want to know whether the stellar performance is the bearish curtain call Germany – and the rest of Europe – has long awaited.

Filed Under: DAX, economic depression, Elliott wave, europe, european markets, financial forecast, great depression

Category: European Markets

The Euro's 10 Percent Rally: A Tale of Two Forecasts
See how the European Financial Forecast Service anticipated the euro's big rally

By Nathaniel Williams
1/11/2013 11:15:00 AM

Barron's and many others predicted the euro to reach parity with the dollar in 2012.  Elliott wave analysis had a starkly different outlook.  See what led our analysts to this contrasting conclusion.

Filed Under: eu, euro, europe, European Union (EU), U.S. dollar

Category: European Markets

European Stock Markets Holding Their "Breadth" for Good News
One oscillator has helped European Short Term Update stay ahead of key, near-term price extremes.

By Nico Isaac
12/27/2012 4:15:00 PM

Every year around this time, investors act a lot like teenagers waiting anxiously by the mailbox to receive their college acceptance letters. A thin letter: Bad news. A thick packet: Good news. But instead of finding out their future alma mater, investors find out their year-end stock returns. With just a few days left on the calendar, market goers across the pond have received a very thick packet indeed. To wit: In early December 2012, the regional benchmark Euro Stoxx 600 index enjoyed its biggest annual rally since 2009 to set a new, intraday high for the year.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, euro, europe, european markets, eurozone, oscillators, technical indicators

Category: European Markets

Signs the European Economy is Climbing a "Wall of Worry"
As the headlines across the pond grow gloomier by the day, can Europe be considered a contrarian play?

By Nico Isaac
12/21/2012 11:45:00 AM

These days, it's difficult to find a bright side to the onslaught of negative news coming out of Europe -- unless, of course, you happen to be a contrarian. In fact, the more downtrodden the mainstream eurozone headlines become, the stronger grows the idea that Europe is becoming a strong contrarian play. So, are they right? Are European investors climbing a wall of worry in a fresh bull market?

Filed Under: Elliott wave, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone

Category: European Markets

Which Ominous Statistic Hit ’Staggering’ Record Highs in Spain?
Find out whether Spain is an isolated incident -- or a harbinger of Europe's future

By Nathaniel Williams
12/17/2012 5:00:00 PM

 "The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain," sang Eliza Doolittle in Lerner and Loewe's "My Fair Lady." But our European analyst rhymes Spain with "circling the drain" in the headline of a chart about the percentage of delinquent Spanish loans. Find out why.

Filed Under: eu, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets

Category: European Markets

Europe's Return of Risky Debt: Sign of Hope or Dangerous Omen?
EWI's new, November European Financial Forecast highlights the resurgence of a risky debt -- and its implications for the region

By Nathaniel Williams
11/12/2012 1:30:00 PM

By all accounts, the economic and financial realities in Europe seem dire. Yet if you look at the behavior of some credit traders in Europe, you'd never know it. Is their new-found optimism toward risky debt a sign of hope -- or a dangerous omen?

Filed Under: AEX, Bank of England, CAC40, DAX, Elliott wave, eu, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, FTSE, Greek debt

Category: European Markets

European Stock Markets: Time to Buy - or - Buying Time?
EWI's November European Financial Forecast reveals whether the worst is finally behind the Continent's stock markets

By Nico Isaac
11/9/2012 5:30:00 PM

When the major European stock markets emerged from the usually nightmarish months of September and October 2012 relatively unscathed -- the mainstream experts took it as a clear sign that the duck-and-cover years were finally behind them. Here, the following string of recent news items captures the renewed enthusiasm for the buy-side of European bourses...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, europe, european central bank, european markets, FTSE

Category: European Markets

Europe in November: Bye, Bye Bear-die?
Inside EWI’s latest, November European Financial Forecast…

By Nico Isaac
11/2/2012 5:00:00 PM

For 4 years, the European economy has been shrouded in the darkness of recession. But now, according to the mainstream experts, tangible "rays of hope" that the worst is finally behind the Continent are finally shining through. For example...

Filed Under: AEX, Bank of England, CAC40, DAX, diversification, Elliott wave, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone, FTSE

Category: European Markets

European Bulls & Bears at an Impasse: Who Will Take the Next Move?
Inside EWI's new, October 2012 European Financial Forecast...

By Nico Isaac
10/5/2012 5:45:00 PM

If Europe's finanical landscape were a chess board, the 2 opposing players -- a bull and a bear -- would be at a seeming stalemate. So, do we have a draw? The brand-new October 2012 European Financial Forecast says -- absolutely not...

Filed Under: AEX, Bank of England, CAC40, DAX, Elliott wave, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, FTSE, Swiss Market Index (SMI)

Category: European Markets

Why Has the Euro Rallied ... Despite Bad News?
See how The European Short Term Update has stayed one step ahead of the EUR/USD for two months

By Nathaniel Williams
9/25/2012 10:30:00 AM

Investors were bearish on the euro in late July, and news was pervasively pessimistic. Common sense suggested that the euro would keep on falling. Not so, said EWI's European Short Term Update, based on wave patterns. Two charts show how that forecast has played out over the past two months.

Filed Under: Chris Carolan, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european markets

Category: European Markets

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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.