Forecasts for the Dow Industrials: Off the Charts and Then Some
If you thought Dow 60,000 was far-fetched

By Bob Stokes
5/15/2013 2:30:00 PM

The February Elliott Wave Theorist noted that "money managers are predicting a Dow as high as 60,000." If you think that is way too optimistic, look at this other forecast.

Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, Elliott wave, investor psychology, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks

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Triple Top: The S&P 500 Goes Nowhere for 13 Years
Something's got to give, and it likely will.

By Bob Stokes
4/19/2013 4:45:00 PM

Technical analysts describe a triple top formation as a textbook "reversal" pattern. After the third peak, the downward price trend that follows may be steep and break below the two prior lows. If that break occurs, prices could descend into free-fall territory. In his March 2013 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter refers to "the 13-year triple top ... from 2000 to 2013." What's more, this pattern does not stand alone.

Filed Under: Bear market, Bob Prechter, bull market, Elliott Wave Theorist, market crash, S&P 500, technical analysis

Category: Stocks

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Bears Continue to Take a Giant Bite Out of Apple
Our charts reveal why professional analysts never saw the 40% freefall in Apple shares coming.

By Nico Isaac
4/18/2013 5:30:00 PM

Last September, with Apple Inc. shares soaring into the outergalactic $700 region, the mainstream experts tightened their grip on the upside. But instead of going to the moon, AAPL crashed back to earth in a 40% selloff to the 16-month lows we see today. One question remains: How could the professional analysts have gotten it so wrong?

Filed Under: Bear market, Bob Prechter, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, mutual funds, Robert Prechter

Category: Asian Markets

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Prechter: "I'd Love to Turn Long-Term Bullish Again"
The next buying opportunity is going to be the one of a lifetime.

By Bob Stokes
4/17/2013 4:45:00 PM

Hindsight shows that Robert Prechter's August 1983 then-radical forecast of a "once-in-a-generation money-making opportunity" did happen. Yet that was a two-part forecast, so this question remains: Is the "biggest financial catastrophe" that Prechter foresaw still unfolding, or has the Fed confined the damage to the 2007-2009 financial crisis?

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Bear market, bull market, consumer confidence, consumer price index, deflation, Elliott Wave Theorist, Gold, Robert Prechter, soverign debt crisis, U.S. STOCK MARKET, unemployment

Category: Classic Prechter

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Just Watch the Next Bear Market on Television
Better to be a spectator than a participant in this event

By Bob Stokes
4/8/2013 4:45:00 PM

When you consider what's on television, one wonders if human nature has changed very much since Romans packed the Colosseum for gruesome entertainment. One cable channel offers wall-to-wall coverage of a famous murder trial. The 2007-2009 financial crisis turned into a made-for-TV drama. The next bear market could turn out to be an even bigger television spectacle. The Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, states that "human nature does not change."

Filed Under: Bear market, Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, herding, history, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks

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NASDAQ's 15% Drop in 2000: a Snapshot of Market History or a Picture of its Future?
Is increased stock market volatility just ahead?

By Bob Stokes
3/27/2013 5:15:00 PM

From March to April 2000, the NASDAQ declined 15%. Many investors bought the dip in the months after the peak, but it was only the beginning of a larger decline. In the 2000-2002 price plunge, the technology-heavy index lost a whopping 78%. Do investors today have a similar mindset to the prevailing market psychology of 2000? Recent sentiment measures say "Yes."

 

Filed Under: Bear market, buy and hold, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, history, investor psychology, market crash, Nasdaq Composite, Robert Prechter, sentiment, VIX, volatility

Category: Stocks

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Bear Markets Are Inevitable
Are you prepared for the next one?

By Bob Stokes
3/18/2013 4:45:00 PM

Bear markets are a conspicuous part of American history. Yet several sentiment measures indicate that most of today's market participants are ignoring this obvious fact. And unless human behavior changes and history stops repeating itself, another bear market is inevitable. It's only a question of when. The Elliott wave model explores that question, and also looks at the extent of market price trends.

Filed Under: Bear market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), economic depression, history, investment strategy, long-term trend, market forecasts, S&P 500

Category: Stocks

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It's True Love for the Dow Industrials
Will stock market bulls suffer a broken heart?

By Bob Stokes
3/14/2013 4:30:00 PM

Most stock market investors are head over heels for the Dow. Even though the market has already trended higher for four years, market participants believe prices have more room to climb. Some investors are prepared to embrace equities even if prices decline. Extreme market sentiment (bullish or bearish) usually indicates that the crowd has already acted. Yet, sentiment is just one of the three pillars of market forecasting.

Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, investor psychology, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, sentiment, short selling

Category: Stocks

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Objective Analysis of Apple Inc: There Isn't an App for That
Elliott Wave Junctures uses relative strength index range rules to determine whether AAPL's freefall is finally over.

By Nico Isaac
2/1/2013 5:30:00 PM

Yes, dear readers, the marketing slogan is true. There is an iPhone app for that which you never imagined. Next time you're waiting in line just to go in your local Apple store, you can pass the hours with countless downloadable digital diversions.And since we've already "gone there," my all-time favorite game app is called "Enviro-Bear." But when it comes to a real-life bear crashing onto the price charts of Apple Inc.'s stock (AAPL) since Sept. 2012, things aren't so fun anymore.

Filed Under: Bear market, Elliott wave, elliott wave junctures, Jeffrey Kennedy, Relative Strength Index (RSI), technical analysis, Traders, video

Category: Stocks

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U.S. Stocks: Today's Market Sentiment Starkly Contrasts 2009's
How extreme sentiment can signal a trend ready for change

By Bob Stokes
1/24/2013 5:30:00 PM

In March 2009, stock prices were at a 12-year low, and you'd have needed to search far and wide to find someone calling for a rebound.  Most investors feared that more of the same was ahead. Instead, stocks rallied. Investor sentiment is now at the opposite extreme.

Filed Under: Bear market, Bob Prechter, bull market, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, market forecasts, sentiment, VIX

Category: Stocks

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The Tortoise is About to Cross the Financial Finish Line
Slow and safe wins the race

By Bob Stokes
1/4/2013 5:00:00 PM

It's true that a Treasury-bill account yields next to nothing. But at this financial juncture, the well-known saying of humorist Will Rogers has never been more relevant: "I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money." Learn why Bob Prechter says that embracing financial risk because interest rates are low can be a trap.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Bear market, conquer the crash, derivatives, Elliott wave, history, Interest Rates, investment strategy, long-term trend, market forecasts, mutual funds, personal finance, risk management, Robert Prechter, safe haven, social mood, stock indexes, Treasury bills (T-bills), treasury yields

Category: Classic Prechter

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The "Taxman" Will Get His Cut Either Way in 2013
Today's economic trend fits hand-in-glove with higher taxes – no matter who wins the "fiscal cliff" debate

By Bob Stokes
12/7/2012 4:30:00 PM

The just-published December issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast describes in detail why "the emerging thirst for higher taxes is evidence of the potential severity" of what Americans should expect to economically unfold next.

Filed Under: Bear market, conquer the crash, debt crisis, economic indicators, Elliott wave, financial forecast

Category: U.S. Economy

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Is Apple's Drop into Bear Market Territory a Harbinger for the Broader Market?
The bearish mood that took a bite out of Apple may tug on the overall market.

By Bob Stokes
12/6/2012 4:30:00 PM

In the past few years, Apple, Inc., stock seemed to defy Newton's law of gravity as it ascended to its all-time intraday high of $705. But in light of recent market action, investors are wondering if Apple can keep up with its hype. The money-manager favorite just had its worst single session decline since 2008. At least one investment letter was not surprised by Apple stock's retreat.

Filed Under: Bear market, buy and hold, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, hedge funds, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, stock indexes, technical analysis, volume

Category: Stocks

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The Elliott Wave Model and "Probabilities Regarding Future Market Movement"
The personality of wave 2

By Bob Stokes
11/28/2012 5:00:00 PM

If the market has been in a second wave, then the strongest leg of a five-wave trend -- wave three -- obviously comes next. Learn what the Elliott wave model reveals about the "probabilities regarding future market movement" for the rest of 2012 and beyond.

Filed Under: Bear market, breadth, bull market, Elliott wave, investor psychology, long-term trend, market forecasts, momentum, Robert Prechter, technical analysis, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks

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The Current Market Trend is a Stock Picker's Nightmare
Stocks are moving in sync

By Bob Stokes
11/16/2012 3:00:00 PM

Most investors would do well to pick the right stocks during a rising market, much less a slumping one when, say, about 75% of stocks follow the main indexes. Even so, some investors will try to figure out which stocks belong to the winning 25%. However, be aware that the broad market may be entering a period when falling stocks outnumber gainers by an even wider margin.
 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, all the same market theory, Bear market, deflation, Elliott Wave Theorist, market forecasts, S&P 500

Category: Stocks

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Today's Sentiment Mirrors the Start of One of the 20th Century's Worst Bear Markets
A look at the 1973-74 market serves as a warning

By Bob Stokes
10/26/2012 3:15:00 PM

All agreed: Market prices are headed higher. Yet in that very month, the stock market started a slide. It later became the worst bear market since the Great Depression. The chart shows how mistaken the consensus view can be -- which brings us to today.
 

Filed Under: Bear market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, great depression, investor psychology, Magazine Cover Indicator, Robert Prechter, sentiment

Category: Stocks

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U.S. Stocks: "Serving Up a Bear Market"
2007-09 was only the appetizer

By Bob Stokes
10/23/2012 5:15:00 PM

Restaurant stocks are only one slice of the financial pie. But this may be previewing a trend back to the days when families sat together around their own supper table. EWI's forecast puts it this way...

Filed Under: Bear market, Elliott wave, S&P 500

Category: Stocks

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The Psychology of Market Tops: "Big Investors Say They Knew Better Than to Overstay"
Market psychology can turn on a dime

By Bob Stokes
10/19/2012 4:15:00 PM

Given the time it takes a financial market to reach a price peak, one might think the decline would be just as gradual. But when fear strikes, investors flee like gazelles at the sight of a lion. Beware of the next...

 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bear market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Principle, investor psychology, market crash, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, Nikkei, South Sea Bubble

Category: Stocks

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High-Frequency Trading and the Next Market Panic
Market fear will spread like an out-of-control wildfire

By Bob Stokes
9/26/2012 4:30:00 PM

Even before computers, market fear could pull prices down much faster than optimism pushed them up. Now, imagine modern computer trading speed combined with old-fashioned market fear, like what's described on...

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Bear market, Elliott wave, market crash, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks

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Most-Owned Stocks Among Institutions Are In a Bear Market
The underestimated downside of over-leveraged stock indexes

By Bob Stokes
9/17/2012 4:45:00 PM

When the popular indexes like the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ start to catch up on the downside, the descent will likely unfold with speed. That's because, when fear is combined with highly leveraged positions, the big money can...

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Bear market, diversification, Elliott Wave Theorist, hedge funds, investor psychology, liquidity, market forecasts, momentum, technical indicators, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks

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