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Why You Should Expect a Change in the Stock Market
Prepare for a transformation that will seem to come from "nowhere"

By Bob Stokes
5/24/2013 4:30:00 PM

Our individual patterns of thought come under a host of strong influences, especially the collective psychology of society. And the social mood that has taken the stock market to recent new highs has been unfolding for several years. But, history also shows that dramatic changes in investor psychology can come quickly.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, history, long-term trend, rate of change, social mood, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


A Wall-to-Wall Selloff in European Bourses
European Short Term Update used Elliott wave analysis to anticipate the reversal

By Nico Isaac
5/23/2013 4:15:00 PM

On Thursday May 23, the ticker tape of European stock markets resembled the jumbotron scale on the weight-loss reality TV show The Biggest Loser -- one triple-digit number after another. Unlike the TV show, however, the sharp stock market declines were not a sign of improving health. According to one news report, brokers across the pond went on a 24-hour damage control assuring their "investors to keep calm, carry on, and don't panic."

Filed Under: CAC40, DAX, Elliott wave, euro stoxx 50, europe, european markets, eurozone, FTSE, Nikkei, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: European Markets


Get in Front of the Live Cattle Herd
In November 2012, Monthly Futures Junctures anticipated the turn in live cattle

By Nico Isaac
5/23/2013 11:45:00 AM

In late 2012, live cattle prices were rallying to new contract highs. And, according to the mainstream pundits, the 'fundamentals' would keep prices moving due north. Rather than driving north, however, live cattle prices turned south in a precipitous slide to the recent contract lows...

Filed Under: commodities, Daily Futures Junctures, Elliott wave, Jeffrey Kennedy, live cattle futures

Category: Commodities


S&P 500 Reverses Sharply in Intraday Trading
From the May 22 intraday high of 1686.73, the S&P 500 fell 36 points.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/22/2013 7:15:00 PM

On May 22, U.S. stocks rose at the open but then reversed sharply lower. The move coincided with congressional testimony by the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. "Coincided," because the market's mood, visible via Elliott wave patterns, was suggesting a reversal even before Mr. Bernanke's comments. See for yourself...

Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, quantitative easing, S&P 500, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


An Intraday in the Life of the Dow
Charts show how the Fed did not cause the DJIA's intraday drop

By Nico Isaac
5/22/2013 6:30:00 PM

About the time the stock market opened on Wednesday, remarks from two Fed officials denied that the central bank was "ready to consider tapering its bond buying"... And the Dow Industrials rallied 100-plus points in the first hour of trading. At 10:24 am, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared before a Congressional Joint Economic Committee and said: "Premature tightening would carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery."

 

 

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, stock indexes, Traders, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


Gold ETFs Are Forced to Sell
ETFs dispose of 600,000 pounds of the yellow precious metal

By Bob Stokes
5/22/2013 4:15:00 PM

ETF gold holdings peaked in December 2012 and have since contracted. The editor of ETF Trends calls the disposal of over 600,000 pounds of gold so far in 2013 "amazing,' and "incredible." Learn how to get a FREE copy of EWI's Special Gold & Silver Report.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, commodities, Elliott wave, Gold, gold futures, quantitative easing, silver, silver futures

Category: Gold and Silver


The Dispossession of Silver Prices
The price rout of the white metal followed its Elliott wave pattern a 'T'

By Nico Isaac
5/20/2013 6:00:00 PM

The recent selloff in silver kicked into high gear on April 15, when prices plummeted 11% to a two-year low. A strong rebound followed with prices rallying within spitting distance of $25 in early May. And then the floor fell out from under silver once again. In early Asian trading on May 19, silver sank 9% to an intraday low of $20.24, a 32-month nadir...

Filed Under: contracting triangle, Elliott wave, Gold, gold futures, precious metals, silver, silver futures, Traders

Category: Gold and Silver


An Economic Earthquake Shakes U.S. Municipalities
"California dreaming" turns into a Golden State nightmare

By Bob Stokes
5/20/2013 5:15:00 PM

Municipalities have borrowed and spent for decades. A substantial number are going broke. The economic earthquake at the state and local level is part of an even larger seismic shift.

Filed Under: debt crisis, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, housing prices, municipal bonds, Robert Prechter

Category: U.S. Economy


The Gold U.F.O.: Unexplainable Falling Object?
There is no conspiracy behind the persistent weakness in gold

By Nico Isaac
5/17/2013 5:15:00 PM

According to a growing number of well-respected sources, the downtrend in gold is a great and artful conspiracy. Yes, they're serious. The 'I smell a rat' notion stems from the widely-held belief that prices in major financial markets do not suddenly fall off cliffs. Gold is not supposed to be as volatile as lesser commodities, but instead be an insurance against panic.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Gold, gold futures, precious metals, Traders

Category: Gold and Silver


Consumer Confidence Hits a 6-Year High: Bullish for Stocks?
Why, of course it is! But please read on to understand why it's a trick question.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/17/2013 4:15:00 PM

To decipher the meaning of economic reports like consumer confidence is the bread and butter of "fundamental" analysis. Inevitably, positive data are supposedly bullish for the stock market, while negative economic reports are bearish. But is this accurate? What a strange question, you may say -- of course it is! Stocks don't fall after good reports, or rise after bad ones...do they? Well, take a look at these financial news headlines and guess when they were published...

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, bull market, buy and hold, consumer confidence, consumer price index, consumer spending, Elliott wave, market forecasts, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Stocks


Deflation Warning: Money Manager Startles Global Conference
History shows that the U.S. should pay attention to economies in Europe

By Bob Stokes
5/17/2013 3:45:00 PM

The economy has been sluggish for five years. There's no shortage of chatter about "why," yet few observers mention deflation. One exception is a hedge fund manager who spoke up at the recent Milken Institute Global Conference.

Filed Under: bloomberg, CNBC, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, great depression, Robert Prechter

Category: U.S. Economy


Market Insight: USDJPY Completes a 5-Wave Rally
Once the market makes the move, it's easy to find economic or political factors to pin it on. What’s hard is to know where the market will go before the news.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/16/2013 5:15:00 PM

On May 15, just as EURUSD broke below the psychologically important price level of 1.30, USDJPY staged a rally. The mainstream forex news sources cited various fundamental factors for the dollar strength/yen weakness. Yet, as you have probably noticed, those explanations almost always make perfect sense -- but only after the fact.

Filed Under: currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, forex, forex trading, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, usd/jpy

Category: Currencies


EURUSD Drops Below 1.30... Why, Again?
Wave analysis works because it helps you track the waves of the market's crowd psychology, which unfold in predictable patterns.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/16/2013 4:30:00 PM

It's official: The euro zone economy has now been in the longest recession since the EUR was introduced in 1999. That news hit the wires on May 15. No wonder EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, fell that day as the U.S. dollar took the upper hand. But let's take a look at what happened from an Elliott wave perspective...

Filed Under: currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, eurozone, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Why a Triangle Marks the Spot of Opportunity in Cocoa
See how a contracting triangle preceded dramatic price moves in 2 major commodity markets

By Nico Isaac
5/16/2013 4:00:00 PM

School may be winding down for summer break, but the Elliott Wave class is still very much in session. And on the syllabus for today's lesson is the Elliott wave pattern known as the contracting triangle.  Here's where you'll want to start taking notes. First, there's the basic definition and diagram of the pattern.Then, there's two real-world examples of the contracting triangle signaling dramatic price moves in sugar and coffee.

Filed Under: cocoa futures, coffee futures, commodities, contracting triangle, Daily Futures Junctures, Elliott wave, Jeffrey Kennedy, sugar futures

Category: Commodities


Three Things Crude Oil MUST Do to Wake the Bear
Don't get caught in the demand data crosshairs.

By Nico Isaac
5/15/2013 3:00:00 PM

"News is irrelevant to trends." This revelation comes straight out of the pages of Robert Prechter's 2004 book "Prechter's Perspective." This notion completely goes against the gospel of mainstream economic wisdom. It also happens to be true, as the recent media storm surrounding crude oil makes plain.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, Traders

Category: Energy


Forecasts for the Dow Industrials: Off the Charts and Then Some
If you thought Dow 60,000 was far-fetched

By Bob Stokes
5/15/2013 2:30:00 PM

The February Elliott Wave Theorist noted that "money managers are predicting a Dow as high as 60,000." If you think that is way too optimistic, look at this other forecast.

Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, Elliott wave, investor psychology, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


Initial Public Offerings of 2013 Meet the Manias of 2007 and 1929
IPOs are set to raise the most money since 2007.

By Bob Stokes
5/13/2013 5:00:00 PM

How can you tell when stock market optimism has turned "fervent"?  One historically sure sign is that a rush of companies go public. The year 1999 was a perfect example. Large numbers of Internet companies with zero revenue went public. The fervor didn't last, as you may recall. 2007 was also a busy year for IPOs -- and another major market top. Now consider the IPO levels of 2013.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Elliott wave, investor psychology, risk appetite, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes

Category: Stocks


How an Instinct Can Be Financially Dangerous
Beware of what accompanies market tops.

By Bob Stokes
5/9/2013 4:45:00 PM

Teenagers dress and talk alike. This natural tendency to conform carries into adulthood. Nowhere is the human tendency to conform more pronounced than in financial markets. Investors instinctively adopt the market views of people they perceive to be "in the know." Learn why this instinct can be financially dangerous.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, herding, investor psychology, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Classic Prechter


EURUSD: Lots of Ups and Downs, Zero Net Progress

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/9/2013 2:30:00 PM

Here's what's interesting. Since the start of May, the euro bulls have tried to rally EURUSD higher at least five times. On May 8, we saw the latest attampt at a rally. It went as high as 1.3195. Then on May 9, the market fell again. That has been the fate of every rally, so far ...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


The End of A Multi-Month Holding Pattern in Crude Oil?
EWI's Metals Specialty Service uses pattern analysis to a potential post-triangle thrust in crude oil prices.

By Nico Isaac
5/8/2013 4:30:00 PM

For many traders, a long sideways trend in prices chart is akin to getting stuck on a one-lane road behind a very slow car. Those are the times when patience wears thin. The mainstream financial media cloaks words that would be spoken in anger into family-friendly phrases like, "Equivocal price action" and "Waiting on a fundamental catalyst to provide direction."
 

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Traders

Category: Energy


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© 2013 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.