Consumer Confidence Hits a 6-Year High: Bullish for Stocks?
Why, of course it is! But please read on to understand why it's a trick question.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/17/2013 4:15:00 PM

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, bull market, buy and hold, consumer confidence, consumer price index, consumer spending, Elliott wave, market forecasts, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Stocks

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If the Fed Stops Easing, Will Gold Start Wheezing?
The answer is in central bank charts of gold prices & stimulus initiatives since Sept. 2011.

By Nico Isaac
5/13/2013 4:30:00 PM

Ask a mainstream economist about the relationship between central bank monetary policy and precious metals, and you'll hear something like: A hawkish Federal Reserve is to gold prices what kryptonite is to Superman. End the money printing and low interest rates, and you take the gravity-defying power out of gold.

Filed Under: central banks, Gold, quantitative easing, stimulus package, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver

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EURUSD: Post-Fed, Post-ECB Market Insight

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/3/2013 5:00:00 PM

Our May 1 story "EURUSD: The First Shoe Drops" said that the world's most-popular forex pair was about to turn lower, after finishing a 5-wave upward move. EURUSD topped the same day at 1.3243, and since then has lost about 200 pips -- so far...

Filed Under: currency, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies

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EURUSD: The First Shoe Drops
The Fed statement on Wednesday disappointed some, but Elliott waves have stayed a step ahead.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/1/2013 4:45:00 PM

Gotta love "the Fed talk" -- as in, the central bank's statement on Wednesday afternoon: "The committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its (bond) purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes." Let's translate that...

 

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), forex, forex trading, quantitative easing, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies

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America's Economic Engine Heads for an Overhaul
The economy continues to sputter.

By Bob Stokes
4/26/2013 4:45:00 PM

Nothing short of a complete overhaul will get the U.S. economic engine purring again. The financial mechanics have been trying to get that engine firing on all cylinders for five years now. They've used every tool at their disposal. Yet the engine continues to sputter. There appears to be only one fix.

Filed Under: bloomberg, conquer the crash, consumer confidence, consumer price index, consumer spending, debt, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, monetary policy, monetization, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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Are Successful Forex Traders Just REALLY Lucky?
In 2004, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan compared successful currency traders to "winners of coin-tossing contests." Fair? No? You decide...

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/17/2013 2:30:00 PM

In 2004, in a speech before the Economic Club of New York, the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan compared successful currency traders to "winners of coin-tossing contests." Fair? No? You decide ...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave trading, forex, forex trading, Greenspan, market forecasts, technical analysis, technical indicators, trading lessons, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies

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Did a Divided Fed Cause Gold's Decline?
The answer is in central bank charts of gold prices and stimulus initiatives since September 2011.

By Nico Isaac
4/10/2013 7:00:00 PM

Ask a mainstream economist about the relationship between central bank monetary policy and precious metals, and you'll probably hear something like: Stimulus is to gold prices what doping is to Lance Armstrong's cycling speed. Stop the money printing and low interest rates, and you slow down gold's gains.

Filed Under: banks, central banks, Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Gold, inflation, precious metals, quantitative easing, Traders, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver

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The Housing Recovery Rests on an Unstable Foundation
Yale's Robert Shiller says the recent rebound in home prices is "artificial"

By Bob Stokes
3/28/2013 5:30:00 PM

The housing market has gone from financial rubble to what some analysts describe as another bubble. It's true that home prices are still nearly 30% below their mid-2000s peak. Yet the recent surge has Robert Shiller of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index concerned. Learn why.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, all the same market theory, CNBC, commercial real estate, economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, foreclosures, great depression, history, home sales, housing prices, quantitative easing, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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Every Big Economic Collapse Has a First Domino
When will the dominoes begin to tumble, or has it already begun?

By Bob Stokes
3/26/2013 4:45:00 PM

Financial history shows that every major credit boom is followed by a credit bust. The latest round of financial headlines remind us that unsustainable debt is crippling Europe. In the U.S., heavy debt burdens have put local and state governments in deep financial trouble. Federal debt rapidly approaches $17 trillion. What will be the first financial domino to fall?

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, banks, Ben Bernanke, bloomberg, central banks, debt, economic indicators, Elliott wave, European debt crisis, gross domestic product (GDP), Interest Rates, monetary policy, quantitative easing, Robert Prechter, soverign debt crisis, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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What a Rooster and the Stock Market Have in Common
Both operate on internal clocks

By Bob Stokes
3/22/2013 5:30:00 PM

Like a tree, which grows according to its natural form regardless of the weather, the stock market's progress is also endogenously regulated. Its price pattern forms independently of external events. Japanese scientists have just discovered that another occurrence in nature is internally regulated.

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Principle, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks

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Will the Fed's Next Move Decide Whether Gold Prices Rise or Fall?
Does monetary policy really drive the precious metal's trend? See the answer with a look at the recent past

By Nico Isaac
2/25/2013 6:15:00 PM

So far this year, gold prices have fallen 10% -- the lowest level in seven months. So it's no surprise that precious metal investors are now asking out loud what they've been quietly wondering for some time: Is 2013 an unlucky number for gold bulls? According to the mainstream experts, the Federal Reserve's future stance on monetary policy holds most of the answer. The way they see it now is the way they've always seen it. The central bank's decision on interest rates pulls the strings of gold prices the way Geppetto controlled Pinocchio.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Gold, Interest Rates, monetary policy, precious metals, Traders, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver

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EURUSD: At a 6-Week Low
The weakness in EURUSD did not start AFTER the Fed's minutes were released

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/21/2013 10:45:00 PM

On Wednesday and Thursday of this week (Feb. 20 and 21), the world's most-traded forex market lost almost 300 points (or pips). The drop in the euro (and the U.S. dollar rally) has been widely attributed to two factors...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, europe, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies

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The Key Factor That Leads Directly to an Economic Depression
Stock market action leads the economy

By Bob Stokes
2/7/2013 4:15:00 PM

Some argue that trends like mounting debt and an ever-widening deficit will trigger a depression. Others say it can happen if the Federal Reserve aggressively raises rates. Then again, the culprit might be chronically high unemployment or plunging home prices. In truth, however, the correct answer is ...

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CNBC, deficit, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, great depression, Interest Rates, recession, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. STOCK MARKET, unemployment

Category: U.S. Economy

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Does More Monetary Stimulus Mean Higher Gold Prices? (Update)
Central bank charts of gold prices & stimulus initiatives since Sept. 2011 set the record straight

By Nico Isaac
2/7/2013 12:15:00 PM

I recently discussed the widespread belief that monetary stimulus from global central banks is to gold prices what doping is to Lance Armstrong's cycling speed. Stop the money printing and low interest rates, and you significantly slow down gold's gains. The mainstream notion was again alive and well on Feb. 7, the day of the European Central Banks' latest policy meeting. In the hours leading up to the event, the rumor meter tipped in favor of further vigilance and "opened the door to another rate cut." 

Filed Under: Bank of England, banks, central banks, european central bank, Gold, monetary policy, quantitative easing, stimulus package, Traders, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver

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Little to Show for the $3 Trillion Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
The U.S. central bank's bond-buying spree has merely kept the economy running in place

By Bob Stokes
2/5/2013 5:30:00 PM

The Federal Reserve's aggressive bond buying has caused the central bank's balance sheet to balloon to $3 trillion for the first time. But for all of its quantitative easing initiatives, the economy remains fragile. Three economic professionals share a sobering outlook for the economy that's similar to the warnings in the second edition of Conquer the Crash.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, central banks, CNBC, conquer the crash, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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"Control of Interest Rates" is the Biggest Myth About the Federal Reserve
Bond investors need to prepare for a major change of trend

By Bob Stokes
1/31/2013 4:45:00 PM

Many observers of financial markets hang on the Federal Reserve's every word, and believe the central bank determines interest rates. However, the evidence shows that interest rates are not controlled by the Fed. Bond investors need to prepare for a major change in trend.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, central banks, conquer the crash, Elliott wave, herding, Interest Rates, market myths, Short Term Update, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Interest Rates

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Does More Monetary Stimulus Mean Higher Gold Prices?
Central bank charts of gold prices & stimulus initiatives since Sept. 2011 set the record straight

By Nico Isaac
1/30/2013 5:45:00 PM

Ask any mainstream economist worth his or her salt about the relationship between central bank monetary policy and precious metals, and you'll probably hear something like: Stimulus is to gold prices what doping is to Lance Armstrong's cycling speed. Stop the money printing and low interest rates, and you significantly slow down gold's gains. Are they right? Is there a correlation between monetary easing and rising gold prices?

Filed Under: Bank of England, central banks, Elliott wave, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Gold, Interest Rates, monetary policy, quantitative easing, stimulus package, Traders, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver

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The Last Believers: Government Grabs the Bag with Both Hands

By Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall
1/23/2013 3:15:00 PM

Filed Under: financial forecast, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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The Silver Prices Playbook
Should silver bulls hang their hat on monetary stimulus and the safe-haven premium?

By Nico Isaac
1/22/2013 5:30:00 PM

Since the start of 2013, demand for silver bullion has reached such a fever pitch that by Jan. 17, the U.S. Mint temporarily sold out of 2013-dated American Silver Eagle coins -- the first white-metal run of its kind in four years. At the same time, silver futures have rallied 9% to a one-month high. Now, page one of the mainstream economic playbook reveals that there are two main factors contributing to silver's surge...

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, monetary policy, precious metals, safe haven, silver, silver futures, stimulus package, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver

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6 Government "Fixes" That Came Too Late to Matter
Government, the ultimate crowd, is powerless to fix what's already occurred – but they always try.

By Bob Stokes
12/27/2012 12:30:00 PM

Robert Prechter says a huge price will be paid for excessive borrowing and spending. And that price is summed up in one word: deflation. Read what EWI subscribers are reading now about what could turn out to be the most severe economic contraction in American history and why the government is powerless to stop it.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, conquer the crash, debt, deficit, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, history, Robert Prechter, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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