Elliott Wave InternationalmyEWISocioniomics.Net

Consumer Confidence Hits a 6-Year High: Bullish for Stocks?
Why, of course it is! But please read on to understand why it's a trick question.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/17/2013 4:15:00 PM

To decipher the meaning of economic reports like consumer confidence is the bread and butter of "fundamental" analysis. Inevitably, positive data are supposedly bullish for the stock market, while negative economic reports are bearish. But is this accurate? What a strange question, you may say -- of course it is! Stocks don't fall after good reports, or rise after bad ones...do they? Well, take a look at these financial news headlines and guess when they were published...

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, bull market, buy and hold, consumer confidence, consumer price index, consumer spending, Elliott wave, market forecasts, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Stocks

America's Economic Engine Heads for an Overhaul
The economy continues to sputter.

By Bob Stokes
4/26/2013 4:45:00 PM

Nothing short of a complete overhaul will get the U.S. economic engine purring again. The financial mechanics have been trying to get that engine firing on all cylinders for five years now. They've used every tool at their disposal. Yet the engine continues to sputter. There appears to be only one fix.

Filed Under: bloomberg, conquer the crash, consumer confidence, consumer price index, consumer spending, debt, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, monetary policy, monetization, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

An Epic Economic Trend Change is Underway
Persistent economic weakness sends a message.

By Bob Stokes
4/15/2013 6:15:00 PM

The earlier you spot a market trend, the more likely you can benefit from it. Is there an emerging economic trend in its early stages today? From the evidence, it appears so. Call it a seismic shift in the entire U.S. economy. Despite the evidence, most economic observers still do not expect what is about to swiftly unfold.

Filed Under: bloomberg, CNBC, conquer the crash, consumer confidence, consumer price index, consumer spending, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, gross domestic product (GDP), Interest Rates, recession, supply and demand, unemployment

Category: U.S. Economy

The Biggest Part of the Economy Could Be Headed for a Cool Down
Consumer confidence drops to its lowest level since December 2011

By Bob Stokes
3/15/2013 4:15:00 PM

If you notice fewer shoppers at the mall, fewer buyers on the car lot, fewer patrons at restaurants and fewer movie goers in coming days and months, don't be surprised. Why? The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for March fell to its lowest level since December 2011. Learn what else the latest consumer sentiment data may suggest.

Filed Under: bloomberg, conquer the crash, consumer confidence, consumer spending, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, sentiment, social mood

Category: U.S. Economy

The Deflationary Trend: Consumers Slip into a Darker Mood
The U.S. economy shrinks in Q4

By Bob Stokes
1/30/2013 5:30:00 PM

The relentless optimism evident in financial markets apparently has not reached consumers. The Wall Street Journal notes that "Consumers turned gloomy as night in January."  Learn what the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast says to expect as mood turns darker.

Filed Under: consumer confidence, consumer spending, deflation, economic indicators, financial forecast, sentiment, social mood

Category: U.S. Economy

Luxury Spending: This Financial Indicator is a Real Masterpiece
Elliott wave analysis of the art market foretells social and economic change

By Bob Stokes
1/15/2013 5:30:00 PM

Luxury seekers push prices higher when they agree that a given commodity is valuable. The most over-the-top spending occurs near market tops. That's what happened in the 1630s at the height of Tulip Mania, the stock market top of 1929 and more recent speculative fever tops. Learn what current prices of luxury items signal about the financial future.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, all the same market theory, consumer spending, economic indicators, Elliott wave, financial forecast, herding, wisdom of crowds

Category: U.S. Economy

How the Psychology of Deflation Becomes Entrenched
A lesson from Japan

By Bob Stokes
12/18/2012 5:00:00 PM

The economic slowdown in the United States has not been nearly as long as Japan's. Yet, Elliott Wave International contends that the U.S. is in the early stages of a deflationary trend. Deflationary psychology is already apparent.

Filed Under: Bank of Japan, conquer the crash, consumer spending, debt crisis, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, history, Robert Prechter, supply and demand, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

Why Much Bigger Bargains May Be Ahead for Consumers
Consumer confidence is at a 4 1/2-year high

By Bob Stokes
11/29/2012 5:00:00 PM

A look at the past five years of consumer survey data reveals that the two most extreme readings came near financial turning points. Now consider that the latest consumer confidence index figure is at a 4 1/2-year high.

Filed Under: conquer the crash, consumer price index, consumer spending, debt, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott wave, Robert Prechter, sentiment, supply and demand

Category: U.S. Economy

Why Investors Love Stocks When They Are Over-Valued
How consuming differs from investing, and why it matters to your portfolio

By Bob Stokes
9/27/2012 5:00:00 PM

When stocks are "on sale," investors shun them. But when stock prices rise, investors embrace them -- in fact, the higher prices go the greater the demand. This is why the supply and demand model we all learned in Economics 101 does not work in financial markets. If the traditional economic model doesn't work in finance, what model does?
 

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, consumer spending, Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, investment decisions, sentiment, supply and demand, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Classic Prechter

Mutiny on the U.S.S. Borrow and Spend: Why No Captain Can Save This Economic Ship
The downward spiral of deflation has started

By Bob Stokes
8/23/2012 5:15:00 PM

The evidence suggests that a rare deflationary spiral has started. And the end of this process is far from over, regardless of whether the Federal Reserve initiates another round of bond buying or quantitative easing (QE3). Moreover, learn why "another disaster for taxpayers" may be just around the corner...

Filed Under: conquer the crash, consumer price index, consumer spending, debt crisis, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, home sales, quantitative easing, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

Is a Real-Life "Breakfast at Tiffany's" Around the Corner?
Will luxury shoppers turn into Holly Golightlys?

By Bob Stokes
11/25/2011 12:30:00 PM

The trip from prosperity to hard times can be shockingly brief. Only a few city blocks separate Fifth Avenue and the South Bronx...

Filed Under: consumer price index, consumer spending, investor psychology, sentiment

Category: U.S. Economy

Luxury May Be Lethal
"...luxury is a classic late-bloomer." -- Financial Forecast, March 2011

By Bob Stokes
10/7/2011 5:45:00 PM

Naturally, anyone has a right to spend their money on whatever they choose. The point to ponder is what the demand for luxury today may be telling us about our economy tomorrow. Find out where in the economic cycle that an increasing demand for luxury usually occurs...

Filed Under: consumer confidence, consumer spending, cultural trends, Elliott wave

Category: U.S. Economy

Faster "Economic Reversal" than 2008?
Signs that the economic downturn is speeding up

By Bob Stokes
9/9/2011 2:45:00 PM

There's yet another indicator that our economic deterioration might very well accelerate more rapidly than what happened in 2008. You can see this indicator for yourself...

Filed Under: consumer confidence, consumer spending, economic depression, gross domestic product (GDP), stimulus package

Category: U.S. Economy

Kings of "Financial Safety": Who Will Be Crowned?
When Cash Will Reign in the Kingdom

By Bob Stokes
8/12/2011 3:45:00 PM

If businesses are already rewarding customers for using cash, imagine having cash if the economy crashes. You'll be in a great position. Alas, the opportunities for safely storing cash are vanishing. However, some opportunities remain...

Filed Under: conquer the crash, consumer spending, economic depression, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), market crash, risk management, supply and demand, U.S. dollar

Category: U.S. Economy

Has Inflation Taken Hold? Let's Take a Closer Look
Inflation vs. Deflation

By Bob Stokes
5/3/2011 5:30:00 PM

Gas and food costs appear to be such a persuasive argument for inflation that it's easy to overlook other economic data -- such as...

Filed Under: consumer price index, consumer spending, deflation, foreclosures, inflation

Category: U.S. Economy

No Surprise: Two Snowmageddons Did NOT Bring An End To Spending
Do retail sales really depend on the weather?

By Nico Isaac
2/3/2011 4:45:00 PM

It's been another hard winter here in the U.S., and since the beginning of last year's Christmas season, we've heard a lot of warnings that cold weather would "cool" the North American public's urge to spend. When the nation's leading retail stores reported dour sales on their biggest shopping day of the year -- "Black Friday" December 26, 2010 -- the mainstream financial experts pinned the carrot on Frosty's face. Here, the following news items from the time recall the tale.

Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, consumer spending, social mood, socionomics, Wall Street

Category: U.S. Economy

If It's "A Buyer's Market," Why Is No One Buying?
Looking for a Bottom in the Residential Real Estate Market

By Bob Stokes
1/27/2011 4:15:00 PM

Much of what makes a "home and hearth" cannot be measured in dollars and cents. Even so, it's not wise to ignore the financial facts of residential real estate...

Filed Under: consumer spending, credit crisis, economic depression, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, housing prices, subprime lending

Category: Real Estate

Understanding the Federal Reserve Bank
To understand what's a greater threat to the U.S. economy -- inflation or deflation -- it helps to understand what role the U.S. Federal Reserve plays

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
1/12/2011 10:30:00 PM

Despite so much focus on the policies of the Fed, its operations remain somewhat of a mystery to most investors -- in no smaller measure, due to their complexity. So, we put together a free 35-page report for our Club EWI members that explains the Fed, its goals and, very importantly, its limitations in layman's terms. Enjoy this short excerpt!

 

Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, Campaign for Independent Thinking, consumer spending, deflation, european central bank, inflation, monetary policy, monetization, Robert Prechter, stimulus package, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

Day-After Christmas Retail Sales Disappoint: Sure, Blame It On The Snow
The performance of retail sales does NOT seem to be driven by the drop or rise in outside temperatures.

By Nico Isaac
12/27/2010 5:30:00 PM

The day after Christmas is to the world of retail what gravity is to planet Earth. Known as "Returns Day," "Boxing Day" (in the UK) and/or "Black Friday II," this single calendar square is historically one of the top five busiest shopping days of the year, when swarms of gift-receivers deck the malls with bills of money. Such was not the case for this year's December 26.

Filed Under: Campaign for Independent Thinking, consumer spending, Elliott Wave Principle, fundamental analysis, social mood, stimulus package

Category: U.S. Economy

Will A Debt Diet Get The Economy Back In Shape?

By Nico Isaac
7/1/2010 12:15:00 PM

According to a recent Newsweek cover story, America has gone on a serious "All-Cash Diet." This financing-free, fiscally conservative movement is already reshaping economic policies and consumer practices in dramatic ways -- all with one main goal: To reverse the onset of Type 2 Debt-abetes brought about by a decades-long borrowing binge.

Filed Under: Robert Prechter, consumer spending

Category: U.S. Economy

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