Elliott Wave InternationalmyEWISocioniomics.Net

EURUSD: Post-Fed, Post-ECB Market Insight

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/3/2013 5:00:00 PM

Our May 1 story "EURUSD: The First Shoe Drops" said that the world's most-popular forex pair was about to turn lower, after finishing a 5-wave upward move. EURUSD topped the same day at 1.3243, and since then has lost about 200 pips -- so far...

Filed Under: currency, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: The First Shoe Drops
The Fed statement on Wednesday disappointed some, but Elliott waves have stayed a step ahead.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/1/2013 4:45:00 PM

Gotta love "the Fed talk" -- as in, the central bank's statement on Wednesday afternoon: "The committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its (bond) purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes." Let's translate that...

 

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), forex, forex trading, quantitative easing, technical analysis, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Currencies


EURUSD: Big Week Ahead
Will the euro rally or fall on the news from the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/29/2013 5:15:00 PM

Two news stories from Europe hit the headlines Monday morning (Apr. 29). One: Italy finally ended its political chaos and swore in the new government. Two: The eurozone economic confidence fell more than expected. EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most traded forex market, rose on Monday. But pretend for a second that you didn't know that. Try this instead...

Filed Under: consumer confidence, currency, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, eurozone, forex, forex trading, Traders, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Cyprus Banking Bailout: Costs Rise, Heads Roll
The officials and experts who didn't see the crisis coming were supposed to prevent it in the first place.

By Nico Isaac
4/16/2013 5:00:00 PM

The cost of the Cyprus bailout seems to get bigger every week. It has gone from 10€ to 17€ and now to 23€ billion euros. What's more, recent reports say the island nation will need a bigger bake sale to raise the necessary funds to foot the growing bill. On April 12, rumors swirled that the European Central Bank will force Cyprus to liquidate half-a-billion dollars of its gold reserves.

Filed Under: bailouts, banks, central banks, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, eurozone, financial forecast

Category: European Markets


Short-Term Euro Memory Loss
.. And long-term euro calls from EWI's European Financial Forecast

By Nico Isaac
4/1/2013 5:15:00 PM

Recently I watched "Memento," the excellent movie about a man with retrograde amnesia who tries to solve his wife's murder. The protagonist has about 30 seconds to write down new clues on scraps of paper -- or in some cases tattoo those clues onto his body -- before his short-term memory completely fails. 

Filed Under: central banks, currency, Elliott wave, euro, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone, U.S. dollar

Category: European Markets


Cyprus, the Euro – and Elliott Waves
How will the forex market react to the details of the Cyprus bailout plan when the agreement is finally reached?

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/22/2013 4:45:00 PM

Right now, the number one forex story is the banking crisis in Cyprus. Cyprus is part of the European Union, so it shares the euro with the rest of the EU. We could speculate on how the outcome of the bailout deal might affect the euro, but our forte is wave analysis and other supporting technical indicators. So let's take a look.

Filed Under: bailouts, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, eu, euro, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, European Union (EU), forex, forex trading, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Has the European Central Bank Defeated the Sovereign Debt Crisis Once and For All?
A three-paneled chart reveals whether the critical precondition for recovery, consumer borrowing, is underway in Europe.

By Nico Isaac
3/21/2013 5:15:00 PM

The conventional wisdom would have to agree. Every polled financial pundit from here to the Hellenic Republic insists that – while not totally out of the woods – the worst of the eurozone economic crisis is in the rearview. The universally recognized date for the Continent’s exact turning point is July 2012. That’s when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi tossed his tie over his shoulder to verbally put the naysayers in their place

Filed Under: central banks, debt crisis, euro, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone, liquidity, soverign debt crisis

Category: European Markets


EURUSD: Draghi Speaks, Euro Rises?
This Elliott wave pattern saw the rally coming before Mr. Draghi ever spoke

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/7/2013 9:45:00 PM

On Thursday (Mar. 7), the European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, made headlines with an optimistic statement that, "Later in 2013 economic activity should gradually recover..." The euro gained and pushed EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, as high as 1.3117. But as it's often the case, the rally was "in the waves" before the news. Take a look at this chart...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, europe, european central bank, European Union (EU), eurozone, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, trendlines, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Europe: The Epicenter of a Global Economic Earthquake
Will economic optimism be dashed once again?

By Bob Stokes
2/22/2013 4:45:00 PM

A big economic story can go underreported for only so long. Eventually it will show up in mainstream news headlines – a likely case in point is the euro zone's developing deflationary trend. The evidence suggests that Europe could be the epicenter of the next global economic earthquake.

Filed Under: bailouts, brian whitmer, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, european central bank, European debt crisis, European Union (EU), eurozone, Robert Prechter, world central banks

Category: Global Markets


EUR/USD: Another Day, Another Central Banker Comment?
News stories don't change the trend -- only the collective bias of market participants has that power.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/12/2013 3:00:00 PM

"Do news headlines change your Elliott wave counts?" We get this question a lot. The short answer is, no. You see, despite what almost everyone believes, we know from three decades of experience that the news doesn't change the trend...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


EUR/USD: Don't Believe the Headlines
The euro fell hard on February 7, but not for the reasons you probably heard about

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
2/7/2013 2:30:00 PM

On Thursday, Feb. 7, EUR/USD, the most-traded forex pair, fell sharply: a 200-pip loss (two full cents) in less than four hours. The main explanation you'll find in the day's news stories is this: a comment by Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank president, pushed the euro off the cliff. But here's the surprising part ...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, usd/jpy

Category: Currencies


Does More Monetary Stimulus Mean Higher Gold Prices? (Update)
Central bank charts of gold prices & stimulus initiatives since Sept. 2011 set the record straight

By Nico Isaac
2/7/2013 12:15:00 PM

I recently discussed the widespread belief that monetary stimulus from global central banks is to gold prices what doping is to Lance Armstrong's cycling speed. Stop the money printing and low interest rates, and you significantly slow down gold's gains. The mainstream notion was again alive and well on Feb. 7, the day of the European Central Banks' latest policy meeting. In the hours leading up to the event, the rumor meter tipped in favor of further vigilance and "opened the door to another rate cut." 

Filed Under: Bank of England, banks, central banks, european central bank, Gold, monetary policy, quantitative easing, stimulus package, Traders, Treasury bonds, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Gold and Silver


Is It Really Time to Buy Europe?
Before you sit down at Europe's born-again-bulls table, make sure your analysis has all of its objective legs intact

By Nico Isaac
2/6/2013 12:30:00 PM

When it comes to assessing the near- and long-term trends underway in financial markets, Elliott wave analysts adopt what I call the three-legged stool approach to forecasting. Their analysis rests on three main factors: Elliott wave structure, technical indicators, and sentiment. The first two legs are tangible: Elliott wave patterns unfold in clear and calculable formations on financial market price charts. Technical indicators are also observable on price charts as oscillators or bar patterns or candlesticks and the like. But what about sentiment -- how do you measure extremes in human emotion?

Filed Under: banks, Elliott wave, euro, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone, sentiment

Category: European Markets


The Most Noteworthy Takeaway from the 2013 World Economic Forum
A perfumed outlook doesn't mean the economy passes the smell test

By Bob Stokes
1/29/2013 5:30:00 PM

Harsh economic realities versus the disconnected and extreme economic optimism at Davos should serve as an alarm. But the World Economic Forum is not the only place where economic optimism is in overdrive. Get an independent perspective on global markets and economies.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, CNBC, debt crisis, economic indicators, Elliott wave, european central bank, European debt crisis, eurozone, FTSE, Greek debt, International Monetary Fund (IMF), sentiment

Category: Global Markets


Signs the European Economy is Climbing a "Wall of Worry"
As the headlines across the pond grow gloomier by the day, can Europe be considered a contrarian play?

By Nico Isaac
12/21/2012 11:45:00 AM

These days, it's difficult to find a bright side to the onslaught of negative news coming out of Europe -- unless, of course, you happen to be a contrarian. In fact, the more downtrodden the mainstream eurozone headlines become, the stronger grows the idea that Europe is becoming a strong contrarian play. So, are they right? Are European investors climbing a wall of worry in a fresh bull market?

Filed Under: Elliott wave, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone

Category: European Markets


Which Ominous Statistic Hit ’Staggering’ Record Highs in Spain?
Find out whether Spain is an isolated incident -- or a harbinger of Europe's future

By Nathaniel Williams
12/17/2012 5:00:00 PM

 "The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain," sang Eliza Doolittle in Lerner and Loewe's "My Fair Lady." But our European analyst rhymes Spain with "circling the drain" in the headline of a chart about the percentage of delinquent Spanish loans. Find out why.

Filed Under: eu, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets

Category: European Markets


EUR/USD: Don't Blame Mario Draghi
Why the head of the European Central Bank is "not guilty" of the December 6 drop in the euro

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
12/6/2012 5:15:00 PM

"A corrective rebound in EUR/USD should set the stage for another round of USD strength," wrote on December 5 the editor of EWI's Currency Specialty Service, Jim Martens, on his Twitter feed ‏(@FX_ElliottWave). The next day...

Filed Under: Elliott Wave trading, euro, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, forex, forex trading, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


ECB's Bond-Buying Program: The Answer to Europe's Debt Crisis?
Read Global Market Perspective to find out whether investors' faith in the bailout fund will be rewarded

By Nathaniel Williams
11/19/2012 4:15:00 PM

Now that even skeptical German politicians seem to believe that the ECB's unlimited bond-buying program will work, it's time to find out if this bailout plan will succeed better than previous plans.

Filed Under: bailouts, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, eurozone

Category: Global Markets


Europe's Return of Risky Debt: Sign of Hope or Dangerous Omen?
EWI's new, November European Financial Forecast highlights the resurgence of a risky debt -- and its implications for the region

By Nathaniel Williams
11/12/2012 1:30:00 PM

By all accounts, the economic and financial realities in Europe seem dire. Yet if you look at the behavior of some credit traders in Europe, you'd never know it. Is their new-found optimism toward risky debt a sign of hope -- or a dangerous omen?

Filed Under: AEX, Bank of England, CAC40, DAX, Elliott wave, eu, euro/USD exchange rate, european central bank, European debt crisis, european markets, European Union (EU), eurozone, FTSE, Greek debt

Category: European Markets


European Stock Markets: Time to Buy - or - Buying Time?
EWI's November European Financial Forecast reveals whether the worst is finally behind the Continent's stock markets

By Nico Isaac
11/9/2012 5:30:00 PM

When the major European stock markets emerged from the usually nightmarish months of September and October 2012 relatively unscathed -- the mainstream experts took it as a clear sign that the duck-and-cover years were finally behind them. Here, the following string of recent news items captures the renewed enthusiasm for the buy-side of European bourses...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, europe, european central bank, european markets, FTSE

Category: European Markets


Get Your Free Email Newsletters

Simply pick what interests you and enter your email address:


Challenge the way you think about investing with The EWI Independent

Dig deeper into the world of Elliott wave trading via Trading the Waves

Get the week's can't-miss articles and free resources from The EWI Weekly Select

Get the latest from our sister organization, the Socionomics Institute
We respect your privacy. TRUSTe

Latest Articles
Categories and RSS
Press Room
Browse Recent Media Articles that Mention EWI or Feature EWI Analysts
As the markets enter what Bob Prechter calls "the point of recognition," we notice that mainstream media pundits who get it start to notice us, our analysts and our forecasts. You can browse dozens of recent media articles about EWI in the EWI Press Room.

© 2013 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.