Economists Wouldn’t Know a Crisis Coming if it Bit them in the Bum (Part One)
Our series of charts reveal that mainstream professionals follow the herd

By Nico Isaac
6/18/2013 1:30:00 PM

When it comes to public figures, no one is more private than the Queen of England. Apart from her love of Corgis and ornate headpieces, Elizabeth II has spent six decades staying out of the spotlight. But one event in the past five years was so controversial that even Her Majesty was compelled to speak out about it: the global financial meltdown.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, credit crisis, earnings, economic indicators, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, herding, Robert Prechter

Category: U.S. Economy

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The FTSE's Recent Fall: Will It Be Just a Footnote?
Only those who saw the beginning of the move can identify its end

By Nico Isaac
6/11/2013 5:30:00 PM

Filed Under: Elliott wave, europe, european markets, financial forecast, FTSE, fundamental analysis, momentum

Category: European Markets

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UK Banks: Back on Solid Ground?
Our chart of the FTSE 350 Banks Index is only the beginning of the discussion

By Nico Isaac
6/7/2013 3:15:00 PM

In May 2013, Britain's top five banks announced that they will meet capital levels required by the Bank of England without having to sell shares. "This is confirmation that the capital debate is over," began one news source. "The funding problem in the UK is over." So, are they right?

Filed Under: Bank of England, banks, Elliott wave, europe, financial forecast, FTSE

Category: European Markets

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Pop Goes the Bull Market: Are Coca-Cola and the Dow Going Flat?
From the May 2013 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast

By Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall
5/30/2013 5:30:00 PM

(From the May 2013 Financial Forecast) In December 1999, [The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast] made the case for a long-term peak in Coca-Cola stock based on its historic role as a bull-market beverage: “Things really do go better with Coke. Unless, of course, the thing is a bear market. At such times, things don’t go so well, not even for Coke.”

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), financial forecast, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks

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Federal Reserve Asset History Takes Unmistakable Profile of Mania in Full Flight
From the May 2013 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast

By Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall
5/30/2013 5:00:00 PM

(From the May 2013 Financial Forecast) The chart of the Federal Reserve’s asset history since 1914 shows that its balance sheet has taken on the unmistakable profile of a mania in full flight. … Although Fed Chairman Bernanke contends that the Fed’s efforts are unique to history, this inflation-adjusted chart of the Fed’s assets shows that his claim is simply not true.

Filed Under: Ben Bernanke, financial forecast, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: U.S. Economy

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Why the "Yield Shock" in US Treasuries Is No Shock at All
Find out how long the reportedly "unexpected" storyline in US bond yields will run.

By Nico Isaac
5/29/2013 6:30:00 PM

Most of the time, US Treasuries are about as exciting as watching bread mold – until now. Both 10-year notes and 30-year bonds are on track for their sharpest monthly loss since December 2009. And on May 28, Treasury yields stole the financial spotlight by soaring to their highest level in 14 months. Which brings us to the headline question: Why?

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, central banks, debt, Elliott wave, financial forecast, Interest Rates, long-term trend, Robert Prechter, Treasury bonds, treasury yields, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. Treasuries

Category: Interest Rates

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The Looming Financial Flameout: Phase II
A picture of financial assets at financial institutions as a percentage of GDP acts as a warning to investors.

By Robert Folsom
5/9/2013 4:15:00 PM

This chart updates an earlier version published in the January 2007 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. At that time, the chart was a warning for subscribers. An epic turn in the economy and financial markets began a few months later. That turn is clear to see on the updated chart taken from page 4 of the May 2013 Financial Forecast.

Filed Under: financial forecast, gross domestic product (GDP)

Category: U.S. Economy

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Australia's Banking Boom: Knock on Wood
How Elliott wave analysis -- not luck -- propelled the ASX 200's rally to five-year highs

By Nico Isaac
5/6/2013 6:00:00 PM

In April 2013, use of the 'b' word -- as in "bubble" showed up in a surprising region of the world: the Australian banking sector. Turns out that major Aussie lenders have enjoyed a powerful upswing since the start of the year. As a recent Wall Street Journal article wrote: "It's astonishing given the size of Australia, its population, economy and banking system, relative to other countries like the US, China, Japan and the UK."

Filed Under: Asian-Pacific Short Term Update, ASX All Ordinaries, banks, credit crisis, Elliott wave, financial forecast

Category: Asian Markets

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The UK Avoids Recession. Proof Positive of Recovery?
And why taking the experts at their word may not be the safest decision.

By Nico Isaac
4/25/2013 5:00:00 PM

In the morning hours of April 25, the UK financial community was a picture of Hunger Games-like angst. Huddled masses stood around the Office for National Statistics, waiting nervously to hear whether the name -- Britain -- would be drawn to participate in a highly dreaded recession.  

Filed Under: credit crisis, europe, european markets, financial forecast, FTSE, great depression, recession, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: European Markets

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Stunning Chart Shows Gold and Silver Defy Bulls' Optimism

By Editorial Staff
4/25/2013 4:00:00 PM

Gold and silver have been all over the financial news in recent weeks. A three-day tumble in mid-April pushed prices lower by as much as 31% and 56%, respectively, off their 2011 highs. The chart below shows EWI's forecasts not only in the past month ... but during the past three years of opportunity.

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, Gold, precious metals, Short Term Update, silver

Category: Gold and Silver

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FLASHBACK: Gold Bulls' 'Fear of Hyperinflation Badly Misplaced'
From the September 2011 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast

By Editorial Staff
4/17/2013 2:30:00 PM

Silver is down 56% since its peak on April 25, 2011, while gold is down 31% from its top on Sept. 6, 2011. Both metals are moving in line with EWI's forecast from the September 2011 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, which published within two weeks of gold’s peak at $1921 an ounce. Here's an excerpt from that issue.

Filed Under: financial forecast, Gold, silver

Category: Gold and Silver

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Cyprus Banking Bailout: Costs Rise, Heads Roll
The officials and experts who didn't see the crisis coming were supposed to prevent it in the first place.

By Nico Isaac
4/16/2013 5:00:00 PM

The cost of the Cyprus bailout seems to get bigger every week. It has gone from 10€ to 17€ and now to 23€ billion euros. What's more, recent reports say the island nation will need a bigger bake sale to raise the necessary funds to foot the growing bill. On April 12, rumors swirled that the European Central Bank will force Cyprus to liquidate half-a-billion dollars of its gold reserves.

Filed Under: bailouts, banks, central banks, europe, european central bank, European debt crisis, eurozone, financial forecast

Category: European Markets

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Raise Your Hand if You Believe Earnings Drive Stock Prices
Now, a mountain of evidence proves why this long-accepted belief is sorely misguided

By Nico Isaac
4/9/2013 6:00:00 PM

April is national Finanical Literacy month. With that in mind, we ask one simple true or false question: Do earnings drive stock prices? Wall Street and the financial media think the answer is as obvious as the blue sky on a cloudless day. In fact, when the 2013 corporate earnings season kicked off on April 8, the news was flooded with stories confirming the supreme role of earnings in market trends.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, earnings, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, market myths, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, U.S. STOCK MARKET, Wall Street

Category: Stocks

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Just Watch the Next Bear Market on Television
Better to be a spectator than a participant in this event

By Bob Stokes
4/8/2013 4:45:00 PM

When you consider what's on television, one wonders if human nature has changed very much since Romans packed the Colosseum for gruesome entertainment. One cable channel offers wall-to-wall coverage of a famous murder trial. The 2007-2009 financial crisis turned into a made-for-TV drama. The next bear market could turn out to be an even bigger television spectacle. The Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, states that "human nature does not change."

Filed Under: Bear market, Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, herding, history, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks

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20 Sentiment Measures Show Extreme Optimism for US Stocks

By Editorial Staff
4/2/2013 1:15:00 PM

Investor sentiment is a double-edged sword. It can be a fast-moving target with fleeting predictive value, but when several sentiment measures align, watch out!

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, Robert Prechter, sentiment

Category: Stocks

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NASDAQ's 15% Drop in 2000: a Snapshot of Market History or a Picture of its Future?
Is increased stock market volatility just ahead?

By Bob Stokes
3/27/2013 5:15:00 PM

From March to April 2000, the NASDAQ declined 15%. Many investors bought the dip in the months after the peak, but it was only the beginning of a larger decline. In the 2000-2002 price plunge, the technology-heavy index lost a whopping 78%. Do investors today have a similar mindset to the prevailing market psychology of 2000? Recent sentiment measures say "Yes."

 

Filed Under: Bear market, buy and hold, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, history, investor psychology, market crash, Nasdaq Composite, Robert Prechter, sentiment, VIX, volatility

Category: Stocks

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Use Your Imagination to Prosper During an Economic Downturn
Which job skills will be in strong demand during an economic storm?

By Bob Stokes
3/21/2013 5:30:00 PM

You can prosper during an economic downturn by using your imagination. In the second edition of Conquer the Crash, Robert Prechter writes: "If you have a choice of employment, try to think about which job will best weather the coming financial and economic storm. ... If you are entrepreneurial, start thinking of ways to serve people in a depression so that you will prosper in it. ... Think about what people will need when times get hard."

Filed Under: economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, history, Robert Prechter, unemployment

Category: U.S. Economy

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The Biggest Part of the Economy Could Be Headed for a Cool Down
Consumer confidence drops to its lowest level since December 2011

By Bob Stokes
3/15/2013 4:15:00 PM

If you notice fewer shoppers at the mall, fewer buyers on the car lot, fewer patrons at restaurants and fewer movie goers in coming days and months, don't be surprised. Why? The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for March fell to its lowest level since December 2011. Learn what else the latest consumer sentiment data may suggest.

Filed Under: bloomberg, conquer the crash, consumer confidence, consumer spending, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, sentiment, social mood

Category: U.S. Economy

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As Home Equity Lines of Credit Surge, The Low-Interest Rate Trap is Set
Borrowers feel confident about the future

By Bob Stokes
3/12/2013 6:00:00 PM

Americans borrowed roughly $1-trillion against their homes in the decade leading up to the housing bubble burst. That dollar figure remains well above recent home equity loan levels, however, CNBC reports that home equity loans are expected to increase in 2013 as homeowners take advantage of low rates. Will a second wave of price declines in real estate come, just as most homeowners think the market has recovered from the first wave?

Filed Under: CNBC, commercial real estate, deflation, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, foreclosures, home sales, housing prices, Interest Rates, market forecasts

Category: Interest Rates

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European Markets: Are 'Happy Days Here Again'?
Page one of The European Financial Forecast: A chart of Euro Stoxx volatility reveals if a drop in fear means a rise in stocks.

By Nico Isaac
3/7/2013 10:15:00 AM

When the 2007-2009 financial crisis nearly unravelled the global economy, many investors hid under their virtual beds, and parked the bulk of their wealth in safe-haven products. Now it's 2013, and a recent Wall Street Journal article describes an almost emboldening epidemic affecting the world's market participants known as "fear fatigue."

Filed Under: DAX, europe, European debt crisis, european markets, financial forecast, FTSE, sentiment, VIX, volatility

Category: European Markets

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