Elliott Wave InternationalmyEWISocioniomics.Net

Three Things Crude Oil MUST Do to Wake the Bear
Don't get caught in the demand data crosshairs.

By Nico Isaac
5/15/2013 3:00:00 PM

"News is irrelevant to trends." This revelation comes straight out of the pages of Robert Prechter's 2004 book "Prechter's Perspective." This notion completely goes against the gospel of mainstream economic wisdom. It also happens to be true, as the recent media storm surrounding crude oil makes plain.

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, Traders

Category: Energy


U.S. Stocks Are Hot. What Does That Mean for India and China?
Sometimes global markets move in tandem, and sometimes they don't.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
5/8/2013 4:30:00 PM

Think back to 2007 and early 2008, before the worst of the financial crisis. Perhaps you recall this major investment belief: Even if the West took a dive, emerging markets would save the day. But when the crisis hit, emerging markets crashed right along with the developed ones. Still, there were a few important nuances. For example...

Filed Under: central banks, Chinese markets, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, emerging markets, fundamental analysis, Indian markets, Shanghai Composite Index

Category: Asian Markets


Is Copper's Bear Market Over?
Why the answer is NOT about supply

By Nico Isaac
4/30/2013 5:00:00 PM

April 2013 has seen copper prices go from low to... lower still. In the week ending April 19, prices experienced their largest percentage decline in 16 months to land solidly in Grizzly Acres. See: "Copper Slides Into Bear Market" a recent blunt-truth headline in the Wall Street Journal.  

Filed Under: copper futures, Daily Futures Junctures, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, Jeffrey Kennedy, trendlines

Category: Commodities


What Must Prices Do to Confirm A Bottom In Gold & Silver?
And what (or who) is responsible for the April 12-15 crash in precious metals?

By Nico Isaac
4/24/2013 6:00:00 PM

From April 12 through 15, gold and silver prices fell 14% and 18% respectively, in the largest such decline in precious metals in three decades. In the aftermath, the mainstream speculation about why gold and silver plunged has shifted from what to whom. Here, the recent news items below name several people of interest in a possible conspiracy to take the bullish wind out of precious metals' sails

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, Gold, precious metals, silver, Traders

Category: Gold and Silver


EURUSD: Below 1.30, Again
Odds are, this opportunity is still young.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/23/2013 9:00:00 PM

On April 23, the world's most traded forex pair slipped 20 pips below the psychologically-important level of 1.30. Predictably, analysts blamed the sell-off on a fundamental factor -- namely, a weak economic report from Germany. A fine explanation indeed, yet one question remains: Now that we know why EURUSD fell, where will it go next?

 

Filed Under: currency, Elliott Wave trading, euro, forex, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, U.S. dollar

Category: Currencies


Fundamental analysis failed to anticipate the March-April selloff in cotton
The dangers of projecting present trends into the future

By Nico Isaac
4/17/2013 5:30:00 PM

In mid-March 2013, cotton prices had enjoyed a three-month, 18% rally to their highest level in a year. And according to the fundamental experts, the "externals" in the cotton market would continue to propel prices higher. Instead, cotton prices embarked on a sharp selloff to the one-month prices lows we see today.

Filed Under: commodities, cotton futures, Daily Futures Junctures, fundamental analysis, Jeffrey Kennedy

Category: Commodities


Why Are Crude Oil Prices Dropping? Not Why Many People Think
If you follow the logic of the "fundamentals," chances are you'll be fundamentally lost

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/16/2013 10:30:00 PM

Gold wasn't the only market that fell out of bed Monday morning (April 15). Crude oil also fell -- as low as $86.06 a barrel over the past couple of trading days. If you've read opinions as to why oil is getting cheaper, a common reason cited by the pundits is that oil reflects the state of the global economy. Interesting. If that is true, then what you see in these charts must be false.

Filed Under: crude oil, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, futures trading, inflation, technical analysis

Category: Energy


Gold: Will Crash-Like Conditions Continue?
"Take a step back. We've broken support. We're well below it. It's a key shelf. Unless you rally and close back above this 1520-1535 zone, you've got to be bearish looking for lower prices."

By Nico Isaac
4/15/2013 5:15:00 PM

"Crash-like conditions," "panic selling" – those are just two phrases used to describe the massive sell-off underway in gold since Friday, April 12. On Monday, April 15, gold prices plummeted 10% in their biggest single-day decline in three decades.

Filed Under: copper futures, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, futures trading, Gold, gold futures, platinum futures, precious metals, silver, technical analysis, trade targets, volatility

Category: Gold and Silver


Do Alcoa Shares Face An Uphill Battle?
And why the company's performance isn't driving its price.

By Nico Isaac
4/8/2013 8:30:00 PM

Alcoa Inc. is the first member listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the world's largest aluminum producer. What's more, Wall Street tends to see Alcoa as the groundhog of corporate America -- meaning, if Alcoa's Q1 earnings see a negative shadow, winter will continue to limit economic growth in general. Yet if Alcoa's Q1 earnings look good, economic spring is upon us.

Filed Under: aluminum, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, precious metals, Traders

Category: Gold and Silver


Corn: What to Make of the HUGE 14% Sell-Off?
On April 1, corn futures fell more than 6% in a single day, and it wasn't an April Fool's joke or a data glitch.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
4/2/2013 1:15:00 PM

Analysts blamed the plunge on "bigger-than-expected U.S. stockpiles and increased planting..." (Bloomberg) But as is often the case, Elliott waves tell a different story -- in fact, they sent the signal in advance. On March 27, the very day when the sell-off began, Jeffrey Kennedy, the editor of our Daily Futures Junctures, offered this forecast...

Filed Under: commodities, corn futures, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, futures trading, supply and demand, technical analysis

Category: Commodities


Corn Prices Crash the Daily Exchange Limit
One day before corn’s free fall, DFJ delivered an evidence-based forecast for a sizable move to the downside

By Nico Isaac
3/28/2013 6:30:00 PM

In the March 27 Daily Futures Junctures, Jeffrey revealed a mountain of evidence suggesting that corn prices were set to experience a dramatic decline. One day later, on March 28, corn prices stunned the futures marketplace by plunging more than 5%. This exceeded the maximum daily limit allowed on the Chicago Board of Trade and marked corn’s biggest single-day slide in ten months.

 

Filed Under: commodities, corn futures, Daily Futures Junctures, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, futures trading, Jeffrey Kennedy

Category: Commodities


What’s Driving Live Cattle Prices Down?
In November 2012, Monthly Futures Junctures anticipated the turn in live cattle

By Nico Isaac
3/20/2013 5:30:00 PM

It may sound a bit far-fetched, but navigating trend changes in financial markets is like riding with a long-distance cattle drive. Hear me out: In both cases, the best position is at the front of the herd, which is actually reserved for the most skilled, senior cowhands. It follows that the worst position is behind the herd. This area is reserved for novice cowboys (called “pilgrims”) or insubordinates. It’s also known as the “dustbowl” for the clouds of dirt that the herd kicks into the riders’ eyes.

 

Filed Under: commodities, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, Jeffrey Kennedy, live cattle futures

Category: Commodities


Could Copper Prices Be Headed to Below $3?
EWI’s Metals Specialty Service video reveals critical price levels to confirm a bearish near-term scenario is on tap

By Nico Isaac
3/19/2013 7:00:00 PM

Copper futures saw a  2.6%  selloff on March 18, to its lowest price in seven months. In no time, mainstream financial commentators took copper’s downturn and ran with it... straight into this line of fundamental fire: “Copper Prices Plummet As Investors Fret Over Cyprus Bailout.” (Associated Press)

 

Filed Under: copper futures, Elliott wave, european markets, eurozone, fundamental analysis, precious metals, Traders

Category: Gold and Silver


Here's What Has to Happen to Confirm an Uptrend In Crude Oil
Instead of 'Chavez news,' Energy Specialty Service follows critical support levels to forecast oil price trends

By Nico Isaac
3/7/2013 6:15:00 PM

The death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has been all over the news, but few observers are ready to make bold declarations about that country's political future. Mainstream financial experts, however, have not hesitated to assess what impact Chavez's demise will have on crude oil prices. After all, Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, earning its nickname "Saudi Arabia of South America."

Filed Under: crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, Traders

Category: Energy


EURUSD: Story of the Week
Elliott waves in forex markets keep warning you of important trend changes

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
3/1/2013 3:45:00 PM

Our Senior Currency Strategist, Jim Martens, likes to say that, "You must faith in your analysis method." Here's another example of that. This week, the U.S. dollar strength pushed EURUSD, the euro-dollar exchange rate, below $1.30 for the first time in months. The week was rich on economic news. We learned that...

 

Filed Under: consumer confidence, Elections, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, europe, eurozone, Fibonacci, forex, forex trading, fundamental analysis, gross domestic product (GDP), home sales, housing prices, technical analysis, technical indicators, U.S. dollar, unemployment

Category: Currencies


A Fundamental Lesson from Italy's Recent Political Deadlock
European Financial Forecast uses Elliott wave analysis -- not election results -- to identify the near-term stock index trends on the Continent.

By Nico Isaac
2/27/2013 5:30:00 PM

On Feb. 26, Italy's much-anticipated Parliamentary Election ended in an impasse, when dark horse candidate/comedian Beppe Grillo earned enough votes to prevent the two leading parties from gaining a majority. In the immediate aftermath of the election, European stock markets took a synchronized leap south in single-day declines from 1.5% to 5%. On that day, the mainstream experts were unanimous: Italy's election outcome flat out bearish...

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CAC40, DAX, Elliott wave, euro stoxx 50, europe, european markets, eurozone, FTSE, fundamental analysis, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter, social mood

Category: European Markets


The Next Chapter in the Commodities Story Is Just Beginning
Brand-new, all digital Monthly Futures Junctures video forecasts the next big moves in 10 key futures markets.

By Nico Isaac
2/22/2013 6:00:00 PM

On Feb. 6, the World Bank released its Global Economic Prospects' Commodity Market Outlook. The 26-page document is a great read if you've got an afternoon to spare (or want to cure insomnia). But for the rest of us, this short version should do: Commodities across the board should "ease marginally" in 2013 so long as a boatload of factors play out as expected. Multiple plotlines is fun when you're kid. But when it comes to futures markets, the goal is to narrow, not expand the scope of probable outcomes.

Filed Under: coffee futures, commodities, corn futures, fundamental analysis, futures trading, Jeffrey Kennedy, Relative Strength Index (RSI), stochastics, technical indicators, Traders

Category: Commodities


Starry-Eyed Surprise: The Economy Does Not Lead Stock Markets
This chart of four critical UK economic indicators sends a powerful message about the Continent's key stock markets.

By Nico Isaac
2/21/2013 5:30:00 PM

Conventional economic wisdom says economic indicators drive stock market trends. If the economic news of the day -- employment, manufacturing, home sales, etc. -- is positive, then "Joe Pundit" says that's why stock prices rallied. If those numbers are negative he says that's why prices fell. Case in point, the following news stories regarding the recent performance in London's FTSE 100:

Filed Under: DAX, economic indicators, Elliott wave, europe, european markets, eurozone, FTSE, fundamental analysis, Prechter's Perspective, Robert Prechter

Category: European Markets


This Isn't the First We've Heard of a Natural Gas Supply Glut
As natural gas prices fall, mainstream experts claim excess supply explains the downtrend

By Nico Isaac
2/19/2013 5:45:00 PM

Natural gas is a volatile commodity in more ways than one – including its price swings in the futures market. So, it goes without saying that energy traders and investors want analysis that helps navigate the sudden turns in natural gas prices. And, ever since the first fossil fuels were extracted from the earth, mainstream experts seem to know only one way to think about near-term price trends ...

Filed Under: commodities, crude oil, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave trading, fundamental analysis, natural gas, supply and demand, Traders

Category: Energy


Apple Inc's Selloff Shows How the Herd Waits For No Man
Think the professionals were separate from the herd? These charts will make you think again

By Nico Isaac
2/12/2013 6:30:00 PM

Unless your name is Snow White and you've been in a deep sleep for months, you know that the share price of tech behemoth Apple Inc. has fallen hard. Talk about poison fruit: Since hitting an all-time high in September 2012, Apple stock prices (AAPL) have rotted to a one-year low, alongside flat earnings, and falling profit margins to levels not seen since the 2007 finanical crisis. And, according to recent New York Times article, many Apple shareholders were snared by the bearish trap in the one way you wouldn't expect -- by following the mainstream experts.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Theorist, fundamental analysis, herding, Robert Prechter, Wall Street

Category: Stocks


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© 2013 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.