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Bear Markets Are Inevitable
Are you prepared for the next one?

By Bob Stokes
3/18/2013 4:45:00 PM

Bear markets are a conspicuous part of American history. Yet several sentiment measures indicate that most of today's market participants are ignoring this obvious fact. And unless human behavior changes and history stops repeating itself, another bear market is inevitable. It's only a question of when. The Elliott wave model explores that question, and also looks at the extent of market price trends.

Filed Under: Bear market, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), economic depression, history, investment strategy, long-term trend, market forecasts, S&P 500

Category: Stocks


3 Sentiment Indicators Warn of a Punch to Stock Portfolios
Investors ignore Washington D.C.'s budget battle

By Bob Stokes
3/4/2013 6:00:00 PM

Money managers say there's no alternative to stocks, and even general-interest magazines scream "BUY!" One forecast is for Dow 60,000! Even after a 4-year rally, billionaire Warren Buffett still considers stocks a "good value." If it seems like market sentiment is virtually one-sided, that's because it is. It's time to look at the stock market from another angle.

Filed Under: bloomberg, CNBC, Elliott Wave Theorist, hedge funds, investment strategy, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes

Category: Stocks


Is It Safe to "Buy the Dip"?
History shows how NASDAQ investors lost their shirts

By Bob Stokes
1/8/2013 4:45:00 PM

Buying stocks simply because prices are lower can be perilous. Consider a historical chart and the accompanying commentary.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, CNBC, Elliott wave, financial forecast, investment strategy, Nasdaq Composite, sentiment

Category: Stocks


The Tortoise is About to Cross the Financial Finish Line
Slow and safe wins the race

By Bob Stokes
1/4/2013 5:00:00 PM

It's true that a Treasury-bill account yields next to nothing. But at this financial juncture, the well-known saying of humorist Will Rogers has never been more relevant: "I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money." Learn why Bob Prechter says that embracing financial risk because interest rates are low can be a trap.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Bear market, conquer the crash, derivatives, Elliott wave, history, Interest Rates, investment strategy, long-term trend, market forecasts, mutual funds, personal finance, risk management, Robert Prechter, safe haven, social mood, stock indexes, Treasury bills (T-bills), treasury yields

Category: Classic Prechter


U.S. Stocks: "The Only Game in Town for Investors"?
Low interest rates don't translate into high stock prices

By Bob Stokes
12/19/2012 5:30:00 PM

The central bank wants people to invest in risk-assets like stocks, so the market will go up and make people feel wealthier. Then investors will spend more and stimulate the economy. Maybe the Fed's grand plan will work. Then again, maybe it won't.

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, Elliott wave, Interest Rates, investment strategy, investor psychology, long-term trend, sentiment, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


Game Over for Hedge Funds: Expect Disastrous Outflows at Just the Wrong Time
Some hedge funds swing for the fences, even as others strike out

By Bob Stokes
11/13/2012 6:00:00 PM

Poor performance has prompted a growing number of hedge fund managers to walk away. Yet, many hedge funds that are still in the game believe that this is the right time to go for broke. But EWI's analysis suggests that the big financial game is deep into overtime -- and the clock is about to run out.
 

Filed Under: Elliott wave, hedge funds, investment strategy, risk appetite, short selling

Category: Stocks


"Are Emerging Markets the Way to Go Right Now?"
You'll find answers to this and many other questions in Prechter's new, 36-minute video Elliott Wave Theorist

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
10/24/2012 7:00:00 PM

At EWI's Message Board, we get great questions from readers every day. Here's one: Emerging markets are being touted as the next wave of opportunity. An Oct. 21 Wall Street Journal article, for example, has reported that Northern Trust Corp., which has $749b under management, says it's time to "lighten up on the U.S. and put more money into emerging-market stocks." The risks are higher, but so are the returns, goes the thinking. What do you make of this new trend?

Filed Under: diversification, Elliott wave, emerging markets, investment strategy, investor psychology, quantitative easing, U.S. dollar, U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)

Category: Global Markets


5 Years After the Peak, Is China Set to Sink -- or SOAR?
What Elliott waves said about China's past -- and what they are saying NOW about its future.

By Nathaniel Williams
10/19/2012 6:15:00 PM

You may have noticed that when the U.S. Presidential candidates'aren't blasting each other, they hammer China. Both Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney want to "get tough" on China. The Obama administration recently backed up its rhetoric by blocking a Chinese company from building a wind farm near a Navy base.
 
But even beyond U.S. political mudslinging, China can't seem to catch a break.

Filed Under: BRIC, Chinese markets, diversification, Elliott wave, emerging markets, investment strategy, sentiment, Shanghai Composite Index, technical analysis

Category: Asian Markets


Unsuspecting Bond Fund Investors Are Set Up for a Shock
Why risk in the rebalanced portfolio is ramping higher

By Bob Stokes
9/7/2012 5:00:00 PM

You can learn about a striking parallel between the bond market of 1929-1932 and today and what to expect next...

Filed Under: deflation, diversification, economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, Interest Rates, investment strategy, investor psychology, junk bonds, market forecasts, money markets, municipal bonds, mutual funds, sentiment, Treasury bonds, treasury yields

Category: Interest Rates


S&P 500: The Waiting Game
The sideways trading in the S&P -- and the waiting game for the S&P traders -- is probably coming to an end

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
9/5/2012 6:00:00 PM

You probably know about a seasonal bias in the markets. "The Christmas rally." "Sell in May and go away." Likewise, September and October are usually the most volatile months. But here we are on September 5, and stocks are flat! In fact, here's what the S&P 500 has done over the past 5 trading days...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, futures trading, investment decisions, investment strategy, investor psychology, Robert Prechter, S&P 500

Category: Stocks


Do Bans on Short Selling Work? See for Yourself
One look at a chart -- and the answer is clear

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
8/9/2012 7:30:00 PM

When panic and fear grip the market, the authorities try their best to stop the bleeding. Their go-to move is to ban short selling of stocks -- a popular speculation method practiced by traders who believe stocks should fall further. To help stop the current wave of the crisis, the eurozone financial authorities have banned short selling, too. Writes our August Global Market Perspective...

Filed Under: AEX, CAC40, DAX, diversification, Elliott wave, euro stoxx 50, eurozone, FTSE, investment strategy, short selling

Category: Global Markets


What Happens After Stock Mutual Funds Get Fully Invested
Stock mutual fund managers are almost "all in"

By Bob Stokes
8/9/2012 3:45:00 PM

There's a never-ending stream of chatter about the stock market. Opinions you hear from money managers and other financial professionals seem to change week to week. But, the best way to know what the "big money" thinks is to...

Filed Under: cash, Elliott wave, hedge funds, investment strategy, mutual funds, pension funds, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


The Tipping Point for U.S. Markets
The "trigger" will be the first of many financial disasters

By Bob Stokes
7/31/2012 4:45:00 PM

If you recognize the market pattern that prices have been following, you can probabilistically forecast where prices will go next. Right now, EWI analysts see a high-confidence price pattern at...

Filed Under: Bob Prechter, Elliott wave, investment decisions, investment strategy, market forecasts, stock indexes, technical analysis, technical indicators

Category: Stocks


Day of Reckoning Approaches for Public Pension and Hedge Funds
Learn how to protect your portfolio in the tumultuous financial times ahead

By Bob Stokes
7/20/2012 4:45:00 PM

Make no mistake; the buying opportunity of a lifetime is ahead. As an investor, your goal is to be ready for it. Before then, U.S. markets will likely experience severe turmoil, and most investors will throw in the towel (that is, if the markets don't knock them out first). Many investors had a similar mind-set as stocks were approaching...

Filed Under: buy and hold, Elliott wave, hedge funds, herding, investment decisions, investment strategy, market forecasts, mutual funds, pension funds, personal finance, risk management, stock indexes

Category: Stocks


A 4-Chart Lesson in Spotting Trade Setups

By Debbie Hodgkins
7/13/2012 10:30:00 AM

You can find low-risk, high-confidence trading opportunities when you trade with the trend in a market. The trick is to find the end of market corrections, so you can position yourself for the next move in the direction of the trend.

Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, elliott wave junctures, financial forecast, investment decisions, investment strategy, Jeffrey Kennedy, successful traders, trade targets, Traders, trading lessons

Category: Education


Asian-Pacific Stocks: Don't Get Too Comfortable
Egypt, Israel and Turkey: This month's Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast also includes forecasts for those markets

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/29/2012 5:30:00 PM

It's always darkest before the dawn, goes the saying. Yet if that's true, then wouldn't the opposite be just as true? "Asian Stocks Head for Biggest Gain This Year on Europe Progress‎," reported the June 29 San Francisco Chronicle. How much longer will we see "sunny" headlines like this one? The latest, July issue of our Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast shows you what no one else does...

 

Filed Under: ASX All Ordinaries, Bank of Japan, BRIC, buy and hold, Chinese markets, diversification, Elliott wave, Indian markets, investment strategy, SENSEX, Shanghai Composite Index, Taiwan index

Category: Asian Markets


How the "Law of the Vital Few" Can Improve Your Trading
The Pareto Principle or the 80/20 Rule

By Bob Stokes
6/18/2012 2:15:00 PM

Career trader Dick Diamond made copious notes of his trades during his 45 years of trading experience. At long last, he learned the specific set-up for the 80/20 trades that made him a success for the past 45 years and counting. Learn more...

 

Filed Under: CRB index, currency, Dick Diamond, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), forex trading, futures trading, investment strategy, momentum, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Nasdaq Composite, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), online trading, oscillators, risk management, S&P 500, short selling, technical indicators, Traders, trading lessons, trendlines, volatility, volume

Category: Trading Lessons


How to Increase Confidence in Your Wave Counting Ability Using the Kennedy Channeling Technique

By Debbie Hodgkins
6/14/2012 9:30:00 AM

In addition to the methods described in chapters one and two of Elliott Wave Principle, Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy spent years trying to design a tool or technique that would help him to confirm wave patterns.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Elliott Wave Education, Elliott Wave Principle, Elliott Wave trading, investment strategy, Jeffrey Kennedy, successful traders, technical analysis, Traders, trading lessons

Category: Trading Lessons


U.S. Stocks: Is the Rally for Real?
The Short Term Update can be your near-term market guide

By Bob Stokes
6/11/2012 5:30:00 PM

Some market commentators point to the market's resilience, valuation measures, a weak but improving economy and a financial system that's more stable than it was during the 2008 crisis. Find out what our Elliott wave analysis points to...

Filed Under: Elliott wave, investment decisions, investment strategy, investor psychology, long-term trend, market forecasts, S&P 500, Short Term Update, technical analysis

Category: Stocks


Asia-Pacific Stocks: To Sell -- or Not To Sell?
That is the question... you may be asking yourself after the big selloff in May. We believe you'll find your answer here.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
6/1/2012 9:00:00 PM

Quick: Name the tallest skyscraper in the world. Yes: Burj Khalifa in Dubai. How about the world's tallest tower? The Eiffel Tower, you say? No. It's the new Skytree that's just opened in Tokyo. The Japanese aren't alone in their desire to reach for the sky. In Jakarta, the developers of the $2b Signature Tower “think that this is the right moment for building the tower,” too. Why would an investment newsletter like ours talk about tall towers, you ask? Because almost all of the world's tallest buildings have famously appeared only at a certain point in the stock market's Elliott wave pattern.

 

Filed Under: ASX All Ordinaries, Bank of Japan, BRIC, Chinese markets, diversification, Elliott wave, emerging markets, Indian markets, investment strategy, safe haven, SENSEX, Shanghai Composite Index

Category: Asian Markets


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© 2013 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.